Billsrhody Posted January 10, 2013 Posted January 10, 2013 Interesting stuff, thanks for giving us as much as you did.
Big Turk Posted January 10, 2013 Author Posted January 10, 2013 Thanks for the info matter2003. Great thread. Any chance of seeing McKelvin's CB grade? McKelvin actually was our highest graded corner at I believe +3.2...also was the highest graded CB in run support on Bills at +2.0
dave mcbride Posted January 10, 2013 Posted January 10, 2013 I nominate this for best post of 2013 (so far). Thanks.
Maury Ballstein Posted January 10, 2013 Posted January 10, 2013 McKelvin actually was our highest graded corner at I believe +3.2...also was the highest graded CB in run support on Bills at +2.0 yuuuuuuuup. show him the money! McK is the man.
dave mcbride Posted January 10, 2013 Posted January 10, 2013 I enjoy reading PFF but something has to be wrong with that G. Wilson grade... Those dropped INTs that cost the Bills two games still count as great plays in their system (passes defensed).
Sisyphean Bills Posted January 10, 2013 Posted January 10, 2013 Seems to confirm a lot of armchair analysis on the board. QB was a huge problem. The defense has talent, but suffered consistent lapses. (On any given play one guy is kicking *** and the guy next to him is out to lunch.) And of course, coaching was another huge problem -- and that was addressed quickly. (I actually think Gailey did a solid job coaching up what talent he had to work with on offense. Trying to fix Fitz's mechanics with a guy who's claim to fame was implementing the Wildcat with the Dolphins ... not so much. And the oddity of not being able to get anyone else ready at QB.) Dareus graded out at +8.1, but he was a very polarizing player...he had the worst run grade on the team at -8.7, but the 2nd best pass rush grade on the team at +13.7 next to Kyle Williams(+22.5) He was worse than last year, when he graded out as the 2nd best defensive player next to Byrd at +13.9, but even with that, his run grade was only +0.6, which is a little concerning... Thanks. And, I agree with this grade. He sucked against the run this year.
....lybob Posted January 10, 2013 Posted January 10, 2013 McKelvin actually was our highest graded corner at I believe +3.2...also was the highest graded CB in run support on Bills at +2.0 I'm not surprised at all, I thought our Defense was much better with McKelvin in for Aaron Williams and immediately got worse when McKelvin was injured and Aaron Williams/Ron Brooks/ Justin Rodgers came in.
bowery4 Posted January 10, 2013 Posted January 10, 2013 (edited) I am not surprised at Rhinhart's grade (esply in the run dept. he is very good at that, pass blocking...meh). I would like to know about Snow and Brown if they got grades?I suspect Brown's was good (again in the run) and Snow okay. Also wondering about Woods grade? And also add thanks for posting the info Edited January 10, 2013 by bowery4
ddaryl Posted January 10, 2013 Posted January 10, 2013 I have a subscription to PFF due to working on a football project, so I have access to all their advanced stat grades. Basically they grade every player on every play during the season and keep a cumulitive grade for them the entire season. Does PFF or anyone do the same type of analysis on College prospects ? I assume PFF does not
eball Posted January 10, 2013 Posted January 10, 2013 Wow, one of the best and most informative posts I've ever read on this site. Kudos. I draw several conclusions from these statistics: 1 -- Buddy Nix HAS made the Bills significantly better from an overall talent perspective than when he arrived three years ago 2 -- George Wilson is still going to be playing in Buffalo next season (particularly since Pettine likes multiple S looks) 3 -- Byrd and Levitre should be top priorities to re-sign 4 -- the Fitz era in Buffalo is over 5 -- the Bills have had some gawd-awful coaching Question for the OP...where do the Bills rank league-wide in total team value?
Big Turk Posted January 10, 2013 Author Posted January 10, 2013 Time to put these Irish lads in our analytical department. They were on The John Murphy show Tuesday night and said they actually have several NFL teams that pay for their services and information...most notably the Giants, who made adjustments based on the info they were given during their last Super Bowl run...
pimp 2 Posted January 10, 2013 Posted January 10, 2013 Id say get off TJ's case. Guys a rookie and had a horrible qb throwing to him, particularly ill suited for his deep threat speed. Give him another year or 2, better QB, then we talk. That's my feelings as well. He had one bad game with the dropsies but overall how do they grade him when his strong suit is stretching the field but most of the time CG had him as the decoy. Add a QB who couldn't hit the broadside of a barn from more than 25 yds away when he had a step on the DB. I say most WR develops slow so I'll hold judgement until they get a QB that can through downfield.
NoSaint Posted January 10, 2013 Posted January 10, 2013 Wow, one of the best and most informative posts I've ever read on this site. Kudos. I draw several conclusions from these statistics: 1 -- Buddy Nix HAS made the Bills significantly better from an overall talent perspective than when he arrived three years ago 2 -- George Wilson is still going to be playing in Buffalo next season (particularly since Pettine likes multiple S looks) 3 -- Byrd and Levitre should be top priorities to re-sign 4 -- the Fitz era in Buffalo is over 5 -- the Bills have had some gawd-awful coaching Question for the OP...where do the Bills rank league-wide in total team value? Though I don't generally disagree with any, I'm not sure any is hugely fair to assert based on the numbers. I'm not surprised they generally reflect those opinions but I'm guessing that these could easily be wildly skewed by snap count, whether a player is generally consistent (straight 0s vs +2, -2 both equaling a two play score of 0), etc.... This is very raw data still as I said in an earlier post. Kind of like judging a defense on only on yards but not looking at number of games played, scoring, etc.... Typically correlated but not totally fair to just look at the end of season number
BigAL Posted January 10, 2013 Posted January 10, 2013 Thanks for the excellent post. I've lurked here for years and hardly ever post myself, but I appreciate you taking the time to summarize the PFF analysis. Every year the Bills have given me reason to be optomistic, and each year I get suckered. Here's hoping that things will be different with Marrone.
Orton's Arm Posted January 10, 2013 Posted January 10, 2013 (edited) It depends what stats you want to use. He was 13 in TDs and 17th in yards. So you can get stats to say what you want. Fitz was better than Tannehill this year without a doubt. 12 TDs and 13 Ints Before everyone goes crazy I am just stating Fitz was a middle of the pack QB. We need to upgrade but stating he was the 3rd worst QB in the league is crazy. He was much better than a lot of the guys in the league. Go watch Ponder play or Gabbert or Tannehill or Sanchez or Weeden. You can stats to say a lot of what you want them to say.....did GW pass the eye test? No Anyone who watched George Wilson this year knows he played poorly....he makes two plays he should make and the Bills win two more games this year. He was replaced a lot more by Searcy towards the end of the year as he was better than Wilson. So just b/c PFF says he played well anyone who watched him including those who knew what he was supposed to do on each play (the coaches) took plays away from him and gave them to another guy. > Passer rating is a collection of stats and Fitz is basically right in the middle of the pack at 16. Passer rating is absolutely not the stat you should use! If QB #1 is 1/2 for 10 yards, and QB #2 is 2/2 for 10 yards, QB #2 will have the higher passer rating, because he has the higher completion percentage. This artificially rewards QBs who favor short, high percentage dump-off passes. Fitz certainly falls into that category. > Fitz was better than Tannehill this year without a doubt. Actually, there is considerable doubt. Yards per attempt is a much better tool with which to evaluate QB performance than QB rating. Tannehill had a slightly higher yards per attempt this past season than Fitz. You could point out--correctly--that Fitz had the better TD/INT ratio. However, if Fitz and Tannehill had played at an exactly equal level, Fitz would have put up better stats, because his supporting cast was stronger than Tannehill's. Overall, it's far from obvious which of the two QBs had the better season. > Go watch Ponder play or Gabbert or Tannehill or Sanchez or Weeden. This past season, Fitzpatrick had the 24th-best yards per attempt in the NFL. Each of the QBs you mentioned--except for Tannehill--had a lower yards per attempt than Fitz. Fitz also finished ahead of Vick, Cassell, Foles, and Bradford. He finished behind RGIII, Peyton Manning, Newton, Russell Wilson, Rodgers, Brees, Ryan, Brady, Romo, Schaub, Eli Manning, Freeman, Roethlisberger, Flacco, Palmer, Cutler, Luck, Dalton, Locker, Rivers, Stafford, Tannehill, and Chad Henne. Edited January 10, 2013 by Edwards' Arm
26CornerBlitz Posted January 10, 2013 Posted January 10, 2013 Analytics are fabulous in Football, but Fitz doesn't pass the eyeball test. You watch him play and it's plainly obvious that he sucks. No statistical breakdown required.
Bronc24 Posted January 10, 2013 Posted January 10, 2013 (edited) Guys, I wouldn't throw Fitzy under the bus just yet. Did anyone ever stop to think that perhaps Gailey didn't allow Fitz to do certain things? Makes me think back to when Stevie stated that Gailey should let Fitz do his thing once in a while. The same goes for Spiller how Gailey would hold him back and stated that it was because he was winded. All I know is that Fitz did pretty good when running the No Huddle offense which is similar to the k gun. You mean like throwing the ball accurately beyond 5 yards, hitting runners in stride to increase YAC and being able to stretch the field with a noodle arm? Yep. All on Chan. Thank goodness this 7th round career back-up will finally be unleashed! Edited January 10, 2013 by Marauder24
KD in CA Posted January 10, 2013 Posted January 10, 2013 Good stuff. Can you provide the full QB rankings? I'd be curious to see how they all stacked up.
BisonMan Posted January 10, 2013 Posted January 10, 2013 (edited) Great OP! :thumbsup: I'm very analytics focused and appreciate this type of attention to detail. I'm sure that there may be some bias on individual plays that people could complain about regarding player ratings. However, given the shear number of plays covered, there would have to be a systematic bias on PFF's part to have the ratings be completely off kilter. For those that have actually read their methodology, I'm curious to know what systematic biases you can identify within it. A few here have pointed out the methodological problems with the traditional QB rating. This is why I generally favor the ESPN QBR rating system now. Like it or now, at least they analyze each individual play and evaluation how the QB's performance impacted the results. By QBR, Fitz was 27th out of 36 QBs ranked...and our defense sucked. Edited January 10, 2013 by BisonMan
dave mcbride Posted January 10, 2013 Posted January 10, 2013 > Passer rating is a collection of stats and Fitz is basically right in the middle of the pack at 16. Passer rating is absolutely not the stat you should use! If QB #1 is 1/2 for 10 yards, and QB #2 is 2/2 for 10 yards, QB #2 will have the higher passer rating, because he has the higher completion percentage. This artificially rewards QBs who favor short, high percentage dump-off passes. Fitz certainly falls into that category. > Fitz was better than Tannehill this year without a doubt. Actually, there is considerable doubt. Yards per attempt is a much better tool with which to evaluate QB performance than QB rating. Tannehill had a slightly higher yards per attempt this past season than Fitz. You could point out--correctly--that Fitz had the better TD/INT ratio. However, if Fitz and Tannehill had played at an exactly equal level, Fitz would have put up better stats, because his supporting cast was stronger than Tannehill's. Overall, it's far from obvious which of the two QBs had the better season. > Go watch Ponder play or Gabbert or Tannehill or Sanchez or Weeden. This past season, Fitzpatrick had the 24th-best yards per attempt in the NFL. Each of the QBs you mentioned--except for Tannehill--had a lower yards per attempt than Fitz. Fitz also finished ahead of Vick, Cassell, Foles, and Bradford. He finished behind RGIII, Peyton Manning, Newton, Russell Wilson, Rodgers, Brees, Ryan, Brady, Romo, Schaub, Eli Manning, Freeman, Roethlisberger, Flacco, Palmer, Cutler, Luck, Dalton, Locker, Rivers, Stafford, Tannehill, and Chad Henne. I think sack rate is nearly as important. Those are drive killers, and it's often a QB's fault (not just the line's).
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