Mike Freeman of CBS Almost Guaranteeing Alex Smith Landing in Buffalo

[Fadingpain]

Here is a really good analysis as to why he will probably end up getting cut

 

http://www.ninersnat...olin-kaepernick

 

An interesting article. This does NOT demonstrate to me, though, that he will end up being cut.

 

That will boil down to what the 49ers think they can get for him in a trade, and if that returned value to the 49ers is worth $1 million to extend him past the new league year in March.

 

So in a way, San Fran has the ability to buy a 3rd round draft pick for $1 million, if that is what Smith will fetch on the open market.

 

They may well consider that a good deal. Who knows.

 

The funny (or perhaps sad) part is the comments below that article.

 

I read the first 40 or so comments. No mention of the Bills was made in regard to "QB needy teams" who might want to trade for Smith.

 

Around the country, the Bills are currently worse than irrelevant. We are borderline non-existent.

Edited January 2, 2013 by Stopthepain

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I don't fall for that analysis at all. I'm sure that Harbaugh loves Kap, simply by his actions of playing him. But I would bet anything that Harbaugh doesn't know himself if Kap will be a solid full time starter and franchise QB. Back-up QB for a team that has hopes of winning a SB is a very important roster spot. The 9ers are paying Kap absolute peanuts. If I were them, I would look at it not in terms of whether Smith was worth 7.5 mil, but rather in terms of Kap and Smith together cost us 8.5 mil or whatever, which is very, very low for the QB position. I see little reason to cut him at all, and I see them holding out for a pretty good trade.

 

Good points.

 

One other variable might be what other veteran QBs are gonna be on the free agent market.

 

One thing that works in the Niners favor is that free agency starts on March 12th this year.

 

Alex's roster bonus isn't payable till April 1st.

 

Admittedly that might not mean much but it might.

[bschmoove]

I'd be fine with Alex Smith on a 2 year deal to keep the seat warm for whatever QB we take in Rd 2 (after getting the best LB in RD1)

Agreed.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

One way or the other he won't be a 9er next year. They tried getting manning in the offseason and only went back to smith after that fell thru. This season he was benched. They obviously don't think he's the answer and I'm sure he's sick of them. Bridges burned, time to move on.

 

Keep in mind that it's the club's option so he might not have a say.

 

Also, Alex signed his extension after the failed play for Manning and he knew Kaepernick was drafted in the high 2nd round for a reason.

 

I'm not sure there's a ton of bitterness on Alex's part. Perhaps some. Perhaps a little frustration. But maybe not enough to make him demand a release or a trade.

[The Wiz]

You oughta read the thread before positing a question that has been asked and answered a few times now.

 

Going back one page should do.

You should too. I replied to stopthepain after he posted his response to my comment about the speculation.

Edited January 2, 2013 by The Wiz

[truth on hold]

 

 

Keep in mind that it's the club's option so he might not have a say.

 

Also, Alex signed his extension after the failed play for Manning and he knew Kaepernick was drafted in the high 2nd round for a reason.

 

I'm not sure there's a ton of bitterness on Alex's part. Perhaps some. Perhaps a little frustration. But maybe not enough to make him demand a release or a trade.

There is. He was quite vocal in the press after getting benched. I agree with the media consensus on this, almost no chance he's a 9er next year, both parties are done with each other

Edited January 2, 2013 by Joe_the_6_pack

[San Jose Bills Fan]

You should too. I replied to stopthepain after he posted his response to my comment about the speculation.

 

Yes, I cited stopthepain's response to you. I was linking your comments for the sake of the discussion.

 

But I was admonishing Code Monkey, not you.

 

There is. He was quite vocal in the press after getting benched. I agree with the media consensus on this, almost no chance he's a 9er next year, both parties are done with each other

 

We shall see. There's actually a few layers to this one.

[Haven Moses]

It is a good idea to see what Wiz thinks about him. He played against him several times.

[ACor58]

The funny (or perhaps sad) part is the comments below that article.

 

I read the first 40 or so comments. No mention of the Bills was made in regard to "QB needy teams" who might want to trade for Smith.

 

Around the country, the Bills are currently worse than irrelevant. We are borderline non-existent.

 

You are dead right. People often complain that the Bills don't get a lot of love from ESPN or NBC, but unless you are a fan, there really isn't a whole lot to talk about.

 

I don't fall for that analysis at all. I'm sure that Harbaugh loves Kap, simply by his actions of playing him. But I would bet anything that Harbaugh doesn't know himself if Kap will be a solid full time starter and franchise QB. Back-up QB for a team that has hopes of winning a SB is a very important roster spot. The 9ers are paying Kap absolute peanuts. If I were them, I would look at it not in terms of whether Smith was worth 7.5 mil, but rather in terms of Kap and Smith together cost us 8.5 mil or whatever, which is very, very low for the QB position. I see little reason to cut him at all, and I see them holding out for a pretty good trade.

 

It's possible - but they could also look to the draft and get a QB with similar skills to Kaepernick, to back him up.

[C.Biscuit97]

Personally, I don't think Smith is much better than Fitz and would rather just start a rookie & have Fitz back him up. But maybe the light did just go on late for Smith. If it didn't much to get him here, I could get with it. But they better still draft a QB high.

[seq004]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/21486727/tenpoint-stance-big-names-out-there-but-more-teams-seek-next-tomlin

I'd rather have him then Vick.

[Kelly the Dog]

 

It's possible - but they could also look to the draft and get a QB with similar skills to Kaepernick, to back him up.

That would defeat the entire purpose. You would be entrusting your SB to a 3rd or 4th round rookie QB. That would completely sink you, unless you had Russell Wilson, which you wouldn't. The 49ers are not better with Kap than they are with Smith, they are the same. Harbaugh plays Kap because of his potential to be a dual threat, and to be the franchise guy for 10 years, not because he is appreciatively better than Smith at running that offense.

[peterpan]

Honestly this years QB class is pretty schitty. I See people posting that outside of Luck/RG3 that its just as good as last years, but i dont see it. its way worse than last years.

 

Smith is the best option for wanting to win now.

[kasper13]

mike freeman is one of the most connected nfl reporters there is. you're showing your ignorance.

 

Excuse my ignorance. He has 24k followers on Twitter. He's currently mad at Schefter for some reason. I had never read anything he has written before but OK, he's one of the most connected guys out there. I just read his column with the Alex Smith line. It's all speculation, no hard facts.

[NoSaint]

 

 

Excuse my ignorance. He has 24k followers on Twitter. He's currently mad at Schefter for some reason. I had never read anything he has written before but OK, he's one of the most connected guys out there. I just read his column with the Alex Smith line. It's all speculation, no hard facts.

 

i now preface this cause JW scolds me when i generalize too much but.... Mike Freeman tends to be one of the better in a group of generally underwhelming sports reporters. hes certainly not the best around, and there are good ones out there - but hes not just some schlub on bleacher report either.

[Maybe Someday]

Good points.

 

One other variable might be what other veteran QBs are gonna be on the free agent market.

 

One thing that works in the Niners favor is that free agency starts on March 12th this year.

 

Alex's roster bonus isn't payable till April 1st.

 

Admittedly that might not mean much but it might.

That’s not quite right. Per the article, the bonus is due on March 12, which is the start of the new league year. That is also when the trade period begins. April 1st is when his salary of $7.5 mil becomes fully guaranteed. So if the 49ers want to trade him, they have to pay the $1 mil roster bonus first (or renegotiate the contract to push that date back) and then complete the trade before April 1.

 

From the article:

 

“There are 2 key dates to keep in mind: 1) March 12, 2013 (tentatively based on new league year date, and 2) April 1, 2013. The former date is when Alex Smith is due a $1 million roster bonus. The latter date is when his $7.5 million base salary for 2013 becomes fully guaranteed. Whatever the 49ers elect to do, $1 million of that $7.5 million is already guaranteed separate from the base salary and the earlier March roster bonus.

Now comes the fun part: is it worth it to trade him or cut him?

By trading him, the 49ers would have to either negotiate with Smith to push the $1 million roster bonus back, and allow him to choose a team he would like to go to, or the 49ers would need to take the $1 million roster bonus, pay it, then wait until before April 1^st to trade him. The 49ers could trade him after the April 1^st date, but the base salary will be fully guaranteed at that point.”

[San Jose Bills Fan]

That’s not quite right. Per the article, the bonus is due on March 12, which is the start of the new league year. That is also when the trade period begins. April 1st is when his salary of $7.5 mil becomes fully guaranteed. So if the 49ers want to trade him, they have to pay the $1 mil roster bonus first (or renegotiate the contract to push that date back) and then complete the trade before April 1.

 

From the article:

 

“There are 2 key dates to keep in mind: 1) March 12, 2013 (tentatively based on new league year date, and 2) April 1, 2013. The former date is when Alex Smith is due a $1 million roster bonus. The latter date is when his $7.5 million base salary for 2013 becomes fully guaranteed. Whatever the 49ers elect to do, $1 million of that $7.5 million is already guaranteed separate from the base salary and the earlier March roster bonus.

Now comes the fun part: is it worth it to trade him or cut him?

By trading him, the 49ers would have to either negotiate with Smith to push the $1 million roster bonus back, and allow him to choose a team he would like to go to, or the 49ers would need to take the $1 million roster bonus, pay it, then wait until before April 1^st to trade him. The 49ers could trade him after the April 1^st date, but the base salary will be fully guaranteed at that point.”

 

Thanks.

 

I didn't read the link.

 

Like I said, there's a few layers of complexity to this situation. I don't think that it's quite as easy to read as some do.

[purple haze]

Almost guarantee? Geez. I can 100% guarantee that I have never heard of Mike Freeman until 2 seconds ago. That's what these guys do nowadays to try and make a name for themselves. Almost. 95% done. Sources say with near certainty. Whatever. They always leave an out. If they hit on a guess or two then people start following them. The Bills do not need Alex Smith. They do not need a "caretaker". They do not need a "stopgap". They need to draft a QB early and start him immediately. Half the playoff teams have rookie, 1st or 2nd year QB's starting.

 

Freeman has been at CBSsports website for quite a while. You not hearing about him is on you. That said, he's not the only one who speculated about Smith winding up with the Bills. Ian Rappaport of NFL.com also mentioned that possibility. Check out his WGR interview from this a.m. And there is a good chance the Bills will need a stop gap. Fitz won't be that QB more than likely. He could split loyalties in the locker room if they kept him around. Smith isn't so great, true enough, but he doesn't have Fitz's baggage in Buffalo. Meaning he hasn't stunk it up for the Bills and he has played good enough to help his team to the playoffs. And if they decide a young guy is better the players won't be split like they might with Fitz.

 

I'm sure the Bills will draft a QB, but there is no guarantee that player is ready to play from opening day in spite of our desire as fans for that to be the case. Got to cover all the bases.

Edited January 2, 2013 by purple haze

[dhg]

For the money, rather keep Fitz

[Rob's House]

Taking Alex Smith would be ideal. We've got great RBs & should be pretty good on defense. Smith can efficiently execute the offense, run for the 1st when the play breaks down, & is pretty good in the clutch. Since this is supposedly a weak QB class it seems to me the smart money brings in the proven vet so you can take your project QB of the future & develop him.

 

As far as Smith's play pre-Harbaugh, I'm not concerned. He's learned how to play the position & as long as he's not misused he's not likely to forget how to play. I sucked at wrestling until someone taught me how. I don't still need him around to remember how to do it.

Edited January 2, 2013 by Rob's House