Russ Brandon named President/CEO

[Kelly the Dog]

Since both the coach and the QB are mrginal prospects, I don't agree with the hair you just split. It would be a wasted exercise (and hard to imagine scenario anyway).

 

No I don't know what lurks in JJ's dark mind, but based on the disaster that was Chan (and that you will never hear JJ's same words coming from Ralph or any other owner in the future), I should have said JJ was probably drunk and didn't really mean it.

We'll agree to disagree on the first. I think that is a very likely scenario (because from what I know, which isn't a lot, Nassib is a marginal prospect).

 

On the second, if that is how you put it the first time, I would have agreed.

 

From what we actually know as of right now, 6:30 EST on 01.02.13, the Bills have set up interviews with four prospects, Whisenhunt yesterday, Horton today, Chip Kelly fri or sat, and Mike McCoy over the weekend. That's a pretty good list of all the crappy candidates. Gruden, your guy, who may also be my number one choice, hasn't set up any interviews yet and may not at all. Lovie and Reid I wouldn't be all that excited about although we could do worse.

[Doc]

I'm not against Whisenhunt outright, but he, like Buddy (and Whaley, I assume), have struggled to address the QB issue. Maybe it's solely on his GM. But the AZ offense blows. I really don't know who is would be best here, honestly. what about you?

Both teams struggled to find a QB, but in different ways. The Cards traded for Kolb and drafted Skelton, who both busted. Nix inherited Edwards and Fitz, Edwards busted, and whole Fitz showed flashes, he didn't develop enough. Mostly they ignored trying to add another QB during the past 3 years, and now realize they need to do it. But finding a good QB isn't an easy task for any team.

 

As for HC, I'm leaning Lovie Smith if he brings Rod Marinelli with him. Chip Kelly is also intriguing, but it would be a risk. I guess I could live with Whisenhunt as HC, given the praise I've heard for him, but I'd rather bring him in as an OC.

[KOKBILLS]

Of course Nix and other "football men" will be heavily involved. But when it comes to thumbs up or thumbs down, Russ's is the only vote that counts. There can't be autonomy in each area to make final decisions. Russ knows this.

 

Transparency hasn't happened yet. But you may be right. But if the results get worse, there is nothing in this "new" arrangement that will be worth being excited about--transparency or not. If it fails it will because nothing had really changed amongst the names of the decision makers.

 

That was what I was getting at---the Clothes have a New Emporer.

 

Agreed 100%...

[Mr. WEO]

We'll agree to disagree on the first. I think that is a very likely scenario (because from what I know, which isn't a lot, Nassib is a marginal prospect).

 

On the second, if that is how you put it the first time, I would have agreed.

 

From what we actually know as of right now, 6:30 EST on 01.02.13, the Bills have set up interviews with four prospects, Whisenhunt yesterday, Horton today, Chip Kelly fri or sat, and Mike McCoy over the weekend. That's a pretty good list of all the crappy candidates. Gruden, your guy, who may also be my number one choice, hasn't set up any interviews yet and may not at all. Lovie and Reid I wouldn't be all that excited about although we could do worse.

 

No, not a bad list, for what's available. I don't see Gruden finishing his contract at ESPN.

 

But--agree to disagree. Cheers!

Both teams struggled to find a QB, but in different ways. The Cards traded for Kolb and drafted Skelton, who both busted. Nix inherited Edwards and Fitz, Edwards busted, and whole Fitz showed flashes, he didn't develop enough. Mostly they ignored trying to add another QB during the past 3 years, and now realize they need to do it. But finding a good QB isn't an easy task for any team.

 

As for HC, I'm leaning Lovie Smith if he brings Rod Marinelli with him. Chip Kelly is also intriguing, but it would be a risk. I guess I could live with Whisenhunt as HC, given the praise I've heard for him, but I'd rather bring him in as an OC.

 

The difference between Az and Buff is that in the search for a QB, AZ was actually searching. Buddy put zero effort into the future of the QB because he didn't recognize the need for it. For that he should have been let go today by "the new President". I see no added benefit of keeping Buddy in any titled capacity for the draft. If Whaley is the the guy--then he is the guy right now. Pay Buddy a consultant's fee if you want his 2 cents on the draft.

 

If Brandon wants real credibility with all fans, he needs to get Buddy off the letterhead.

[Kelly the Dog]

 

The difference between Az and Buff is that in the search for a QB, AZ was actually searching. Buddy put zero effort into the future of the QB because he didn't recognize the need for it. For that he should have been let go today by "the new President". I see no added benefit of keeping Buddy in any titled capacity for the draft. If Whaley is the the guy--then he is the guy right now. Pay Buddy a consultant's fee if you want his 2 cents on the draft.

 

The idea that Nix just didn't recognize the need for it is simply not true. Nix was known to be very high on Newton. If Andrew Luck did what 99% of college athletes would have done and declared for the draft when he was the consensus #1 pick and his coach just left, Nix would have drafted Newton. That's pretty well known I think (I highly doubt that Fox would have taken Newton when he already had Orton and Tebow as the last year's #1). I also know that Nix was high on Russell Wilson. he should have, in retrospect, pulled the trigger in the third round when he had the chance. That is obvious now. But Wilson was thought to be a #4 pick, and it at least makes sense for Nix to do what he did.

 

He just didn't think any of the guys available in the first round were good last year, which no one else did either. He made a misjudgment on Fitz, there is no denying that. But it's not that he hated QBs or just ignored them or thought Fitz was the franchise. He didn't pay him as one, he paid him commensurate with his talent, and BOTH years he came out and said publicly if there is a franchise guy available we will take him, and I didn't see anyone he passed up that I would have thought was one either, did you?

 

You could say maybe he should have taken Dalton but to me, he would have been terrible on the Bills as well, and he's a mediocre QB. Kapernick had huge question marks coming out of college and likely would not have fared well here either.

[Doc]

The difference between Az and Buff is that in the search for a QB, AZ was actually searching. Buddy put zero effort into the future of the QB because he didn't recognize the need for it. For that he should have been let go today by "the new President". I see no added benefit of keeping Buddy in any titled capacity for the draft. If Whaley is the the guy--then he is the guy right now. Pay Buddy a consultant's fee if you want his 2 cents on the draft.

 

If Brandon wants real credibility with all fans, he needs to get Buddy off the letterhead.

I agree the Bills weren't searching for a QB. Which means they didn't whiff on trading for a QB or drafting one high. They now realize they need to draft one, if not sign one in FA, because Fitz just couldn't develop despite being the man.

 

And out of the QB's the Bills had a chance to draft without trading up, I wouldn't say any of them have proven to be all that great. Wilson could be, but that remains to be seen and numerous teams passed on him 2 and even three times. Dalton is an average QB and his stats back that up. Kaep, Foles, and Cousins haven't played enough yet.

[KOKBILLS]

 

The difference between Az and Buff is that in the search for a QB, AZ was actually searching. Buddy put zero effort into the future of the QB because he didn't recognize the need for it. For that he should have been let go today by "the new President". I see no added benefit of keeping Buddy in any titled capacity for the draft. If Whaley is the the guy--then he is the guy right now. Pay Buddy a consultant's fee if you want his 2 cents on the draft.

 

If Brandon wants real credibility with all fans, he needs to get Buddy off the letterhead.

 

Could not possibly agree more...Exactly where I'm at...

 

I like Brandon, and I LOVED the beginning of that Presser...Just loved it...Then he went on to say he's keeping Buddy...Then he praised Buddy as the best Football man he knows...And to be honest he lost me a bit...I'm still hoping...But Brandon's gushing belief in Nix has me concerned about his judgement already...And this thing has just begun...

[BUFFALOKIE]

Holy shiz, that was a long read (and I skipped some). This has turned into one hu-mun-gus shout box! PLEEEZ UNPINNIT! I. CANT. STOP.

 

Dr. D...love your insight! You are the best speculator around, LOL!

 

GO BILLS! Cheers.

 

[KOKBILLS]

The idea that Nix just didn't recognize the need for it is simply not true. Nix was known to be very high on Newton. If Andrew Luck did what 99% of college athletes would have done and declared for the draft when he was the consensus #1 pick and his coach just left, Nix would have drafted Newton. That's pretty well known I think (I highly doubt that Fox would have taken Newton when he already had Orton and Tebow as the last year's #1). I also know that Nix was high on Russell Wilson. he should have, in retrospect, pulled the trigger in the third round when he had the chance. That is obvious now. But Wilson was thought to be a #4 pick, and it at least makes sense for Nix to do what he did.

 

He just didn't think any of the guys available in the first round were good last year, which no one else did either. He made a misjudgment on Fitz, there is no denying that. But it's not that he hated QBs or just ignored them or thought Fitz was the franchise. He didn't pay him as one, he paid him commensurate with his talent, and BOTH years he came out and said publicly if there is a franchise guy available we will take him, and I didn't see anyone he passed up that I would have thought was one either, did you?

 

You could say maybe he should have taken Dalton but to me, he would have been terrible on the Bills as well, and he's a mediocre QB. Kapernick had huge question marks coming out of college and likely would not have fared well here either.

 

You can't try to improve an obvious need without actually trying...Buddy is supposed to be a Scouting Guru...He was handed a ton of Picks in 3 years...The fact that Dalton, Kaepernick, and Wilson are all starting Playoff QB's pretty much seals it that Buddy's judgement was wrong...Sure none of them may turn out to be the next big thing...But if Buddy truly believed The Bills HAD to upgrade from Fitz at QB, one of them was certainly worth more than Aaron Williams or TJ Graham...You HAVE to try when all you have is Fitz, and Buddy told us from day #1 he was going to build through the Draft...Then he Drafted one 7th Round QB in three years knowing Fitz, or Edwards, was his starter...Furthermore he put The Bills in an awkward must-Draft-a-QB situation this year...It was just a poor job by a GM in well over his head IMHO...

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Let me add again (seeing as we're running laps now) that although I'm not completely on board with the decision to retain Nix, that I see the rationale behind it:

 

1) Valued, trusted employee. It does little good to publicly humiliate him.

 

2) More importantly, in the 3 years he's been here, he's revamped the personnel department. He hired Cook and Gibbons and many of the regional scouts. He got rid of Modrak and Guy. It would be very disruptive during this time of scouting bowl games and preparing for the draft to fire him. That's why personnel guys typically have contracts which expire on May 1st.

 

Not only would Nix's firing be very disruptive to draft and free agent preparations but it would be pretty demoraliziing to the staff that he hired.

 

There's more value in retaining Nix for the short run with this caveat:

 

As long as it doesn't impair the team's ability to hire a new head coach.

[Chilly]

You can't try to improve an obvious need without actually trying...Buddy is supposed to be a Scouting Guru...He was handed a ton of Picks in 3 years...The fact that Dalton, Kaepernick, and Wilson are all starting Playoff QB's pretty much seals it that Buddy's judgement was wrong...Sure none of them may turn out to be the next big thing...But if Buddy truly believed The Bills HAD to upgrade from Fitz at QB, one of them was certainly worth more than Aaron Williams or TJ Graham...You HAVE to try when all you have is Fitz, and Buddy told us from day #1 he was going to build through the Draft...Then he Drafted one 7th Round QB in three years knowing Fitz, or Edwards, was his starter...Furthermore he put The Bills in an awkward must-Draft-a-QB situation this year...It was just a poor job by a GM in well over his head IMHO...

 

The problem with this oversimplified logic is that no draft pick happens in a bubble. There's an opportunity cost when drafting any player. Do you take a chance on a mediocre QB like Dalton or Kaepernick, on a year when Fitz has showed enough to give him a chance at a mediocre starter with a similar ceiling, or do you take a CB like Aaron Williams that you think has a chance to be a really good CB?

 

With Wilson, my bet is he got surprised when he went in the 3rd round. It's not just a "T.J. Graham over Russell Wilson" here. It's a "How much do we like T.J. Graham", "How much do we like Wilson","How much do we think other teams like Graham and Wilson, and will Wilson or Graham last to our next pick?" discussion. I think Buddy would have suspected Russell would last till his next pick, hence his "and you better draft them a round earlier" comment this year. On this, Buddy misfired, but I understand his logic. I also think that with a QB who can throw long balls, T.J. Graham could be pretty good. Fitz couldn't hit him this year.

 

I totally get the criticizing of Buddy for not putting more resources into the most important position. If I'd criticize him for anything, it's underestimating how much other teams liked Wilson, I get and agree with the criticism there, he missed the boat and it's a damn big boat.

 

I can't, though, get too mad at him for not wanting to take QBs who aren't franchise QBs. Kaepernick, Dalton, Gabbert, Locker, Ponder, etc aren't going to turn this team into a playoff team overnight.

 

You say that Kaepernick, Wilson, and Dalton being playoff QBs seals the deal, but again - you're taking those QBs out of the context that they are currently in. If you look at the numbers between all four of these teams, it becomes pretty clear that the biggest difference between the teams was defense:

 

Defensive Rankings (Yards):

Seattle - #4

San Fransisco - #3

Cincinnati - #6

Buffalo - #22

 

Defensive Rankings (Points):

Seattle - #1 (245)

San Fransisco - #2 (273)

Cincinnati - #8 (320)

Buffalo - #26 (435)

 

Offensive Rankings (Yards):

Seattle - #17

San Fransisco - #11

Cincinnati - #22

Buffalo - #19

 

 

Passing Rankings (Yards):

Seattle - #27

San Fransisco - #23

Cincinnati - #17

Buffalo - #25

 

Passing Touchdowns:

Seattle - #8 (27 TDs)

San Fransisco - #16 (23 TDs)

Cincinnati - #7 (28 TDs)

Buffalo - #13 (24 TDs)

[K-9]

The problem with this oversimplified logic is that no draft pick happens in a bubble. There's an opportunity cost when drafting any player. Do you take a chance on a mediocre QB like Dalton or Kaepernick, on a year when Fitz has showed enough to give him a chance at a mediocre starter with a similar ceiling, or do you take a CB like Aaron Williams that you think has a chance to be a really good CB?

 

With Wilson, my bet is he got surprised when he went in the 3rd round. It's not just a "T.J. Graham over Russell Wilson" here. It's a "How much do we like T.J. Graham", "How much do we like Wilson","How much do we think other teams like Graham and Wilson, and will Wilson or Graham last to our next pick?" discussion. I think Buddy would have suspected Russell would last till his next pick, hence his "and you better draft them a round earlier" comment this year. On this, Buddy misfired, but I understand his logic. I also think that with a QB who can throw long balls, T.J. Graham could be pretty good. Fitz couldn't hit him this year.

 

I totally get the criticizing of Buddy for not putting more resources into the most important position. If I'd criticize him for anything, it's underestimating how much other teams liked Wilson, I get and agree with the criticism there, he missed the boat and it's a damn big boat.

 

I can't, though, get too mad at him for not wanting to take QBs who aren't franchise QBs. Kaepernick, Dalton, Gabbert, Locker, Ponder, etc aren't going to turn this team into a playoff team overnight.

 

You say that Kaepernick, Wilson, and Dalton being playoff QBs seals the deal, but again - you're taking those QBs out of the context that they are currently in. If you look at the numbers between all four of these teams, it becomes pretty clear that the biggest difference between the teams was defense:

 

Defensive Rankings (Yards):

Seattle - #4

San Fransisco - #3

Cincinnati - #6

Buffalo - #22

 

Defensive Rankings (Points):

Seattle - #1 (245)

San Fransisco - #2 (273)

Cincinnati - #8 (320)

Buffalo - #26 (435)

 

Offensive Rankings (Yards):

Seattle - #17

San Fransisco - #11

Cincinnati - #22

Buffalo - #19

 

 

Passing Rankings (Yards):

Seattle - #27

San Fransisco - #23

Cincinnati - #17

Buffalo - #25

 

Passing Touchdowns:

Seattle - #8 (27 TDs)

San Fransisco - #16 (23 TDs)

Cincinnati - #7 (28 TDs)

Buffalo - #13 (24 TDs)

 

Very interesting take. Well done.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Dawgg]

The problem with this oversimplified logic is that no draft pick happens in a bubble. There's an opportunity cost when drafting any player. Do you take a chance on a mediocre QB like Dalton or Kaepernick, on a year when Fitz has showed enough to give him a chance at a mediocre starter with a similar ceiling, or do you take a CB like Aaron Williams that you think has a chance to be a really good CB?

 

With Wilson, my bet is he got surprised when he went in the 3rd round. It's not just a "T.J. Graham over Russell Wilson" here. It's a "How much do we like T.J. Graham", "How much do we like Wilson","How much do we think other teams like Graham and Wilson, and will Wilson or Graham last to our next pick?" discussion. I think Buddy would have suspected Russell would last till his next pick, hence his "and you better draft them a round earlier" comment this year. On this, Buddy misfired, but I understand his logic. I also think that with a QB who can throw long balls, T.J. Graham could be pretty good. Fitz couldn't hit him this year.

 

I totally get the criticizing of Buddy for not putting more resources into the most important position. If I'd criticize him for anything, it's underestimating how much other teams liked Wilson, I get and agree with the criticism there, he missed the boat and it's a damn big boat.

 

I can't, though, get too mad at him for not wanting to take QBs who aren't franchise QBs. Kaepernick, Dalton, Gabbert, Locker, Ponder, etc aren't going to turn this team into a playoff team overnight.

 

You say that Kaepernick, Wilson, and Dalton being playoff QBs seals the deal, but again - you're taking those QBs out of the context that they are currently in. If you look at the numbers between all four of these teams, it becomes pretty clear that the biggest difference between the teams was defense:

 

Defensive Rankings (Yards):

Seattle - #4

San Fransisco - #3

Cincinnati - #6

Buffalo - #22

 

Defensive Rankings (Points):

Seattle - #1 (245)

San Fransisco - #2 (273)

Cincinnati - #8 (320)

Buffalo - #26 (435)

 

Offensive Rankings (Yards):

Seattle - #17

San Fransisco - #11

Cincinnati - #22

Buffalo - #19

 

 

Passing Rankings (Yards):

Seattle - #27

San Fransisco - #23

Cincinnati - #17

Buffalo - #25

 

Passing Touchdowns:

Seattle - #8 (27 TDs)

San Fransisco - #16 (23 TDs)

Cincinnati - #7 (28 TDs)

Buffalo - #13 (24 TDs)

And those numbers themselves reflect the failure that Buddy Nix has been these past 3 years. He made a conscious decision to focus more resources on the defensive side of the ball, recognizing that the team had a glaring weakness there. As you correctly point out, resources aren't spent in a vacuum. But in spite of all the resources spent on defense, we are left with a unit that is among the worst performing in franchise history. That Buddy didn't address the QB position adequately is a large failure. Far more egregious, however, has been his inability to field a competitive defensive unit despite the significant resources directed toward the effort.

[KOKBILLS]

And those numbers themselves reflect the failure that Buddy Nix has been these past 3 years. He made a conscious decision to focus more resources on the defensive side of the ball, recognizing that the team had a glaring weakness there. As you correctly point out, resources aren't spent in a vacuum. But in spite of all the resources spent on defense, we are left with a unit that is among the worst performing in franchise history. That Buddy didn't address the QB position adequately is a large failure. Far more egregious, however, has been his inability to field a competitive defensive unit despite the significant resources directed toward the effort.

 

Amen!!!

[NoSaint]

 

 

The problem with this oversimplified logic is that no draft pick happens in a bubble. There's an opportunity cost when drafting any player. Do you take a chance on a mediocre QB like Dalton or Kaepernick, on a year when Fitz has showed enough to give him a chance at a mediocre starter with a similar ceiling, or do you take a CB like Aaron Williams that you think has a chance to be a really good CB?

 

With Wilson, my bet is he got surprised when he went in the 3rd round. It's not just a "T.J. Graham over Russell Wilson" here. It's a "How much do we like T.J. Graham", "How much do we like Wilson","How much do we think other teams like Graham and Wilson, and will Wilson or Graham last to our next pick?" discussion. I think Buddy would have suspected Russell would last till his next pick, hence his "and you better draft them a round earlier" comment this year. On this, Buddy misfired, but I understand his logic. I also think that with a QB who can throw long balls, T.J. Graham could be pretty good. Fitz couldn't hit him this year.

 

I totally get the criticizing of Buddy for not putting more resources into the most important position. If I'd criticize him for anything, it's underestimating how much other teams liked Wilson, I get and agree with the criticism there, he missed the boat and it's a damn big boat.

 

I can't, though, get too mad at him for not wanting to take QBs who aren't franchise QBs. Kaepernick, Dalton, Gabbert, Locker, Ponder, etc aren't going to turn this team into a playoff team overnight.

 

You say that Kaepernick, Wilson, and Dalton being playoff QBs seals the deal, but again - you're taking those QBs out of the context that they are currently in. If you look at the numbers between all four of these teams, it becomes pretty clear that the biggest difference between the teams was defense:

 

Defensive Rankings (Yards):

Seattle - #4

San Fransisco - #3

Cincinnati - #6

Buffalo - #22

 

Defensive Rankings (Points):

Seattle - #1 (245)

San Fransisco - #2 (273)

Cincinnati - #8 (320)

Buffalo - #26 (435)

 

Offensive Rankings (Yards):

Seattle - #17

San Fransisco - #11

Cincinnati - #22

Buffalo - #19

 

 

Passing Rankings (Yards):

Seattle - #27

San Fransisco - #23

Cincinnati - #17

Buffalo - #25

 

Passing Touchdowns:

Seattle - #8 (27 TDs)

San Fransisco - #16 (23 TDs)

Cincinnati - #7 (28 TDs)

Buffalo - #13 (24 TDs)

 

Always appreciate when people pull together data and build opinions off it. Thanks for sharing why you think what you do - instead giving the emotional gut reaction response. I get those, but really appreciate the people that take they time to try and teach a bit with their analysis.

[Chilly]

And those numbers themselves reflect the failure that Buddy Nix has been these past 3 years. He made a conscious decision to focus more resources on the defensive side of the ball, recognizing that the team had a glaring weakness there. As you correctly point out, resources aren't spent in a vacuum. But in spite of all the resources spent on defense, we are left with a unit that is among the worst performing in franchise history. That Buddy didn't address the QB position adequately is a large failure. Far more egregious, however, has been his inability to field a competitive defensive unit despite the significant resources directed toward the effort.

 

Yeah, I agree with this, the defense remains his biggest failing as a GM. When I said "if I'd criticize him for anything", I meant on offense/QBs.

 

Part of it seemed to be a lack of vision, 4-3 to 3-4 to 4-3? 2 coordinators and 2 different schemes in 3 years under the same head coach? That's unheard of. Buddy talks a lot about continuity, but his actions didn't match up with his words on that one. There was no continuity in the defense.

 

There's a lag time anytime players switch schemes like that, or major players switch teams. John Madden correctly predicted on SiriusXM this year it'd take about 6 weeks for the Broncos to really turn it on and become the great team they are now. When switching schemes like this and players so often, you've got no one running the same defense for a while.

 

I think we saw some effects of them getting better in the middle of the year, the Bills were #2 in Run D over a 4-game stretch after the bye, and played NE OK compared to other teams in other weeks around that time. All of the problems with the team, including Dave W's poor coaching, and tough schedule, proved it to be short-lived though.

 

This is one reason why I'm against the Arizona crew (possible exception Whiz if he hires a 4-3 D Coord and lets him do his thing). I really don't want to switch AGAIN back to the 3-4, make a lot of the talent we acquired out of position, and create even more holes in the defense. It's going to take at least the first quarter of the year next year to get our team really playing well under the new coaches, and switching schemes AGAIN this year will only make it worse and create more holes in an already sketchy defense.

 

That being said, I do think the talent on defense is improved in some areas, the DL being the obvious example. I also think Gilmore has a lot of potential, Aaron Williams could turn out good instead of poor (his success rate % isn't great, but he tackles very well and it shows in his YAC. If he can improve some, he has the possibility to being good), and Buddy obviously needs to keep Byrd. However, we totally negate our biggest strength, the DL, if we switch to a 3-4.

 

The defense is also a big reason why Gailey got fired and should have been fired. He's like the opposite of Lovie Smith (who didn't find the right O guy): Couldn't get the right D coordinator to make a difference for him. That, and his total misuse of C.J. Spiller (ugh). He had great creative plays to get Spiller in space, but dear God he didn't get him the ball enough. OK, and in-game management - there were a lot of reasons, lol.

Edited January 3, 2013 by BlueFire

[Malazan]

You asked who would be in Russ's place, I believe. Since he hasn't picked a new coach, not sure I can cooment on his choice at this point. I was refuting the fallacy that Russ would not be picking the HC at all. Brandon would impress me more if the Bills were not considering guys like Marrone, for starters.

 

So you can't answer what the option besides Russ or Ralph is and you have a problem with them interviewing all potential candidates? They should ignore potential candidates before even meeting them?

 

The complaining isn't valid until you can answer who should be making the decisions.

Edited January 3, 2013 by jeremy2020

[RuntheDamnBall]

 

And those numbers themselves reflect the failure that Buddy Nix has been these past 3 years. He made a conscious decision to focus more resources on the defensive side of the ball, recognizing that the team had a glaring weakness there. As you correctly point out, resources aren't spent in a vacuum. But in spite of all the resources spent on defense, we are left with a unit that is among the worst performing in franchise history. That Buddy didn't address the QB position adequately is a large failure. Far more egregious, however, has been his inability to field a competitive defensive unit despite the significant resources directed toward the effort.

Some of us feel that coaching had a lot to do with it. Buddy really should have done more at lb but we all know that.

[1B4IDie]

 

 

The problem with this oversimplified logic is that no draft pick happens in a bubble. There's an opportunity cost when drafting any player. Do you take a chance on a mediocre QB like Dalton or Kaepernick, on a year when Fitz has showed enough to give him a chance at a mediocre starter with a similar ceiling, or do you take a CB like Aaron Williams that you think has a chance to be a really good CB?

 

With Wilson, my bet is he got surprised when he went in the 3rd round. It's not just a "T.J. Graham over Russell Wilson" here. It's a "How much do we like T.J. Graham", "How much do we like Wilson","How much do we think other teams like Graham and Wilson, and will Wilson or Graham last to our next pick?" discussion. I think Buddy would have suspected Russell would last till his next pick, hence his "and you better draft them a round earlier" comment this year. On this, Buddy misfired, but I understand his logic. I also think that with a QB who can throw long balls, T.J. Graham could be pretty good. Fitz couldn't hit him this year.

 

I totally get the criticizing of Buddy for not putting more resources into the most important position. If I'd criticize him for anything, it's underestimating how much other teams liked Wilson, I get and agree with the criticism there, he missed the boat and it's a damn big boat.

 

I can't, though, get too mad at him for not wanting to take QBs who aren't franchise QBs. Kaepernick, Dalton, Gabbert, Locker, Ponder, etc aren't going to turn this team into a playoff team overnight.

 

You say that Kaepernick, Wilson, and Dalton being playoff QBs seals the deal, but again - you're taking those QBs out of the context that they are currently in. If you look at the numbers between all four of these teams, it becomes pretty clear that the biggest difference between the teams was defense:

 

Defensive Rankings (Yards):

Seattle - #4

San Fransisco - #3

Cincinnati - #6

Buffalo - #22

 

Defensive Rankings (Points):

Seattle - #1 (245)

San Fransisco - #2 (273)

Cincinnati - #8 (320)

Buffalo - #26 (435)

 

Offensive Rankings (Yards):

Seattle - #17

San Fransisco - #11

Cincinnati - #22

Buffalo - #19

 

 

Passing Rankings (Yards):

Seattle - #27

San Fransisco - #23

Cincinnati - #17

Buffalo - #25

 

Passing Touchdowns:

Seattle - #8 (27 TDs)

San Fransisco - #16 (23 TDs)

Cincinnati - #7 (28 TDs)

Buffalo - #13 (24 TDs)

Excellent Excellent post.

The oversimplification of the GM role and the tranition plan to Whaley is clear in this thread.

Nix didn't "show us the baby" and now people want to throw the baby out with the bath water.

[Mr. WEO]

The idea that Nix just didn't recognize the need for it is simply not true. Nix was known to be very high on Newton. If Andrew Luck did what 99% of college athletes would have done and declared for the draft when he was the consensus #1 pick and his coach just left, Nix would have drafted Newton. That's pretty well known I think (I highly doubt that Fox would have taken Newton when he already had Orton and Tebow as the last year's #1). I also know that Nix was high on Russell Wilson. he should have, in retrospect, pulled the trigger in the third round when he had the chance. That is obvious now. But Wilson was thought to be a #4 pick, and it at least makes sense for Nix to do what he did.

 

He just didn't think any of the guys available in the first round were good last year, which no one else did either. He made a misjudgment on Fitz, there is no denying that. But it's not that he hated QBs or just ignored them or thought Fitz was the franchise. He didn't pay him as one, he paid him commensurate with his talent, and BOTH years he came out and said publicly if there is a franchise guy available we will take him, and I didn't see anyone he passed up that I would have thought was one either, did you?

 

You could say maybe he should have taken Dalton but to me, he would have been terrible on the Bills as well, and he's a mediocre QB. Kapernick had huge question marks coming out of college and likely would not have fared well here either.

 

I don't know who Nix was hhigh on. Some people here claim to have known. I don't recall his public statements at the time. But much of this is besides the point. It's not "well, we couldn't get Luck or Newton, so what cna you do...?". As others have pointed out, there were other QBs in later rounds who are playing now and none were complete surprises. Nix thought Wilson would go in the 4th? Well, everyone thought Graham would go even later than that. If Buddy was looking for a QB, he would have taken Wilson in the 3rd. But he wasn't looking for a QB, plain and simple. In fact, he was looking so hard past the QB to a WR that he totally reached for Graham and the result (compared to Wilson) has been disastrous.

 

Would Dalton or Kaepernick have been "disastrous" here? Maybe. But A williams has been disastrous. My philosophy is that you roll the dice in the 2nd or 3rd round on a QB because it is the highest impact position. If you hit--ti's great. If you bust, so what? There's your backup QB...better luck next year. Compare that to picking some CB---no matter how great he turns out to be, it is such a low impact position (how many games have ever been won by the stellar efforts of a single CB?) that it can never have the payoff of finding a starting QB.

 

I agree the Bills weren't searching for a QB. Which means they didn't whiff on trading for a QB or drafting one high. They now realize they need to draft one, if not sign one in FA, because Fitz just couldn't develop despite being the man.

 

And out of the QB's the Bills had a chance to draft without trading up, I wouldn't say any of them have proven to be all that great. Wilson could be, but that remains to be seen and numerous teams passed on him 2 and even three times. Dalton is an average QB and his stats back that up. Kaep, Foles, and Cousins haven't played enough yet.

 

Again, it doesn't matter if any of the them prove to be all that great (they are starting early in their careers). The fact is they were selected by other teams when they were available to us. And each of those teams already had a starting QB on the roster. The philosphy of "well, those guys may not turn out to be that great anyway" is the best though process to avoid picking a QB. And the argument that "several teams passed on him/them" is never a convincing argument or excuse. Different teams have different needs.

 

You can't try to improve an obvious need without actually trying...Buddy is supposed to be a Scouting Guru...He was handed a ton of Picks in 3 years...The fact that Dalton, Kaepernick, and Wilson are all starting Playoff QB's pretty much seals it that Buddy's judgement was wrong...Sure none of them may turn out to be the next big thing...But if Buddy truly believed The Bills HAD to upgrade from Fitz at QB, one of them was certainly worth more than Aaron Williams or TJ Graham...You HAVE to try when all you have is Fitz, and Buddy told us from day #1 he was going to build through the Draft...Then he Drafted one 7th Round QB in three years knowing Fitz, or Edwards, was his starter...Furthermore he put The Bills in an awkward must-Draft-a-QB situation this year...It was just a poor job by a GM in well over his head IMHO...

 

I agree with this. Levi Brown should be Nix's only lasting legacy here.

 

Let me add again (seeing as we're running laps now) that although I'm not completely on board with the decision to retain Nix, that I see the rationale behind it:

 

1) Valued, trusted employee. It does little good to publicly humiliate him.

 

2) More importantly, in the 3 years he's been here, he's revamped the personnel department. He hired Cook and Gibbons and many of the regional scouts. He got rid of Modrak and Guy. It would be very disruptive during this time of scouting bowl games and preparing for the draft to fire him. That's why personnel guys typically have contracts which expire on May 1st.

 

Not only would Nix's firing be very disruptive to draft and free agent preparations but it would be pretty demoraliziing to the staff that he hired.

 

There's more value in retaining Nix for the short run with this caveat:

 

As long as it doesn't impair the team's ability to hire a new head coach.

 

Fine, don't fire him. But why not jsut say what everyone here insists they know is true--that Whaley is the new GM and Buddy is a senior advisor or something. Wouldn't that be less "humiliating" then publicly declaring that Nix is absolutely still GM--and then "letting him go after the draft", as many here claim will happen?

 

The problem with this oversimplified logic is that no draft pick happens in a bubble. There's an opportunity cost when drafting any player. Do you take a chance on a mediocre QB like Dalton or Kaepernick, on a year when Fitz has showed enough to give him a chance at a mediocre starter with a similar ceiling, or do you take a CB like Aaron Williams that you think has a chance to be a really good CB?

 

With Wilson, my bet is he got surprised when he went in the 3rd round. It's not just a "T.J. Graham over Russell Wilson" here. It's a "How much do we like T.J. Graham", "How much do we like Wilson","How much do we think other teams like Graham and Wilson, and will Wilson or Graham last to our next pick?" discussion. I think Buddy would have suspected Russell would last till his next pick, hence his "and you better draft them a round earlier" comment this year. On this, Buddy misfired, but I understand his logic. I also think that with a QB who can throw long balls, T.J. Graham could be pretty good. Fitz couldn't hit him this year.

 

I totally get the criticizing of Buddy for not putting more resources into the most important position. If I'd criticize him for anything, it's underestimating how much other teams liked Wilson, I get and agree with the criticism there, he missed the boat and it's a damn big boat.

 

I can't, though, get too mad at him for not wanting to take QBs who aren't franchise QBs. Kaepernick, Dalton, Gabbert, Locker, Ponder, etc aren't going to turn this team into a playoff team overnight.

 

You say that Kaepernick, Wilson, and Dalton being playoff QBs seals the deal, but again - you're taking those QBs out of the context that they are currently in. If you look at the numbers between all four of these teams, it becomes pretty clear that the biggest difference between the teams was defense:

 

 

I have a few problems with this thinking. First, the defense Buddy has put together the past few offseasons was to have been one of the best in the league this year. So why wouldn't Nix be looking to beef up at QB this off season in the draft? The new QB would have been playing in that same "context".

 

Second, the logic of picking Graham over Wilson is flawed. It would only work if Graham was a highly regarded WR. He wasn't really. Most agreed Nix reached up at least a round to get him. Obviously Nix "liked" a new WR more than he "liked" a new QB. This is also strange because Nix absolutely knew the physical limitations of his QB, yet was hell bent on picking up a track star who had modest receiving skills. For this reason the pick, and all of the reasoning behind it, never made any sense.

 

Third, "franchise QBs" aren't labeled accurately in the draft. And as far as a QB coming in and turning this team into a playoff team overnight, well so what? It's an intersting comment to make--especially since Buddy, facing his own GM mortality, has suddenly found Jesus---announcing recently that drafting a QB is his new priority. Well, guess what? The crop of QBs he has to chose from this draft is not as good as the ones he has already passed on, so the likelihood of finding one who will turn this team into a playoff team overnight is even less likely. But he's going to pick one in the 1st or 2nd round anyway?

 

The only heavy lifting a GM has to do in the course of his job is to hire the right HC and QB. That's it. Buddy whiffed on the first (although the spectre of Ralph made his choices very limited) and he didn't bother with the second. That's why he shouldn't be here anymore as GM.