San Jose Bills Fan Posted January 1, 2013 Posted January 1, 2013 Its like a lot of what ProFootballFocus, KC Joyner and Aaron Schatz at ProFootballOutsiders have been doing...some very in depth statistical work Also the guys at "Cold, Hard, Football Facts."
Coach Tuesday Posted January 1, 2013 Posted January 1, 2013 Would be a better roster if they did that. Seriously - FO was super high on Dalton, Kaepernick and Wilson pre-draft...
Ennjay Posted January 1, 2013 Posted January 1, 2013 Is this the new Russ Brandon slogan, replacing "cash to cap"?
Punch Posted January 1, 2013 Posted January 1, 2013 WGR suggesting that the Analytics Dept. is mostly regarding contract structuring, etc. The fact that it would be under Jim Overdorf endorses this opinion, so it's disheartening. This note regarding Whisenhunt shows how basic football analytics would likely not recommend him as a top candidate: Buffalo Rising @ BuffaloRising Since '07 (Whisenhunt's tenure), AZ has punted from inside the opponent's 40 yard line 36 times. The Bills have done it 27 times Retweeted by Jeremy White Additionally, Nix said in the PC that "percentages" show proven HCs with NFL experience make better candidates whereas 8 of the 12 HCs in the postseason this year did not match that criteria when hired.
Malazan Posted January 1, 2013 Posted January 1, 2013 Chip Kelly also has the added benefit of 1.5 threads per day asking if Chip Kelly is related to Jim kelly.
cale Posted January 1, 2013 Posted January 1, 2013 I'm an analytics guy. I love this forward thinking approach. It's more than just saving money. It's using big data to drive how you strategize the approach of an organization.
Buffalo Barbarian Posted January 1, 2013 Posted January 1, 2013 If they are going to be moving towards an analytical football approach wouldnt they want to hire a coach that coaches analytical... Thats what Chip Kelly does. The Bills are NOT in my opinion going to Arizona to interview Wisenhunt, they may have put that out there and done that to throw off the scent of what I believe they will really be doing in Arizona...interviewing and offering Chip Kelly anything he wants. His bowl game is to be played January 3rd. I am betting the Bills will conduct this interview him later today. This is just my opinion but everything discussed leads me to this idea. They can't give him everything he wants when Russ is in charge and Nix is GM.
Punch Posted January 1, 2013 Posted January 1, 2013 A little clarification on "Football Analytics" from Chris Brown: Bills new President and CEO Russ Brandon made mention of establishing a layer of analytics to the organization that will analyze the club from top to bottom. But there’s a player evaluation element to it that will likely assist in completing the assessment of a player on the roster or prospective player. “Yeah, we want to make sure we look at everything relative to our operation and make sure we’re making good and smart decisions,” Brandon told Buffalobills.com. ”And that really focuses on player evaluation and it focuses mainly on cap management. Scouting is still the lifeblood of our organization and it always will be as long as I’m here. It’s just other opportunities that present themselves. You see it throughout baseball; you see it in the NBA. It’s just another resource and a tool that should be in your war chest as you move forward.” Managing the salary cap as it pertains to players likely means that the analytics will provide an additional layer in assessing what a player’s true worth is to the team based on advanced metrics of on field performance.
Kevin Posted January 1, 2013 Posted January 1, 2013 So in other words the Bills are going to be the Oakland A's of the NFL? Wonderful.
BringBackFergy Posted January 1, 2013 Posted January 1, 2013 I would love it. I would love to see some of the athletes we have on offense run his offense. I am not thinking its likely but I am not viewing it as a possibility which I wasn't doing before. Just find it an interesting coincidence that they are headed to Arizona first. I thought Chan was an innovator of offensive schemes. Just because a college coach has an impressive record from an offensive standpoint...no way to tell how that translates to NFL. Will he stress finding a strong DC?? How to utilize CJ? A QB who is mobile or with pocket presence?? Alot of questions how a college coach will make the adjustment to "the Show".
NoSaint Posted January 1, 2013 Posted January 1, 2013 So in other words the Bills are going to be the Oakland A's of the NFL? Wonderful. Disregard that most successful organizations have invested heavily in developing statistical evaluation and technology.... And we're likely among those furthest behind that curve in any of the major sports.... We're going to be the A's, clearly.
transient Posted January 1, 2013 Posted January 1, 2013 I'm an analytics guy. I love this forward thinking approach. It's more than just saving money. It's using big data to drive how you strategize the approach of an organization. So, your saying, not dumping 100 million at the feet of one player, but breaking it up and pursuing several lesser talents that together are more likely to have a larger impact, for example?
zonabb Posted January 1, 2013 Posted January 1, 2013 WGR suggesting that the Analytics Dept. is mostly regarding contract structuring, etc. The fact that it would be under Jim Overdorf endorses this opinion, so it's disheartening. This note regarding Whisenhunt shows how basic football analytics would likely not recommend him as a top candidate: Buffalo Rising @ BuffaloRising Since '07 (Whisenhunt's tenure), AZ has punted from inside the opponent's 40 yard line 36 times. The Bills have done it 27 times Retweeted by Jeremy White Additionally, Nix said in the PC that "percentages" show proven HCs with NFL experience make better candidates whereas 8 of the 12 HCs in the postseason this year did not match that criteria when hired. Well, analytics doesn't mean comparing two descriptive statistics and making a leap in faith they indicate, infer, or have any causal relationship to winning. This board isn't the place to attempt to teach analytics, econometrics, or any statistical test. But what I will say is this comparison of punting inside the opponents 40 lacks statistical significance. If you don't know what that mean, you have a lot of catching up to do.
Punch Posted January 1, 2013 Posted January 1, 2013 Well, analytics doesn't mean comparing two descriptive statistics and making a leap in faith they indicate, infer, or have any causal relationship to winning. This board isn't the place to attempt to teach analytics, econometrics, or any statistical test. But what I will say is this comparison of punting inside the opponents 40 lacks statistical significance. If you don't know what that mean, you have a lot of catching up to do. I posted it because it was relevant to the discussion happening on WGR at that moment. That particular punting reference isn't really a stat at all, especially without more context--- but punting has become symbolic of the flag waving being done by Mike Schopp. My main concern was WGR had inferred (following their one-on-one with Brandon) that statistical analysis was going to be used in structuring contracts but not necessarily with actual football performance--- this was apparently not correct.
kasper13 Posted January 1, 2013 Posted January 1, 2013 If they are going to be moving towards an analytical football approach wouldnt they want to hire a coach that coaches analytical... Thats what Chip Kelly does. The Bills are NOT in my opinion going to Arizona to interview Wisenhunt, they may have put that out there and done that to throw off the scent of what I believe they will really be doing in Arizona...interviewing and offering Chip Kelly anything he wants. His bowl game is to be played January 3rd. I am betting the Bills will conduct this interview him later today. This is just my opinion but everything discussed leads me to this idea. Exactly.Would totally love this move. Best thing they could possibly do. Are they smart enough though? Is this the forward thinking, world class move they talked about? I sure hope so. Would be a huge step forward instead of hiring some retread just fired NFL coach.
Maguire's Beer Posted January 1, 2013 Posted January 1, 2013 WGR suggesting that the Analytics Dept. is mostly regarding contract structuring, etc. The fact that it would be under Jim Overdorf endorses this opinion, so it's disheartening. That is disheartening. This note regarding Whisenhunt shows how basic football analytics would likely not recommend him as a top candidate: Buffalo Rising @ BuffaloRising Since '07 (Whisenhunt's tenure), AZ has punted from inside the opponent's 40 yard line 36 times. The Bills have done it 27 times Retweeted by Jeremy White Holy crap, that's terrible. Yeah, that would pretty much disqualify Whisenhunt from any search for a coach who has a clue about probability.
Buffalo Barbarian Posted January 1, 2013 Posted January 1, 2013 So is "Analytics" a euphemism for "Moneyball?" Is it the relationship between payroll and sabermetrics? I'm not clear on what they mean by this. he did say that it was moneyball when asked by howard and Jeremy. My question is who makes the final decision on draft picks, him or Buddy? Moneyball is not necessarily the strategy of a money strapped team, though. The Boston Red Sox hired Bill James (arguably the father of sabremetrics) when they couldn't lure away Billy Beane in 2002--- it was "moneyball" that directly lead to the Red Sox 1st World Series title in 86 years. Oakland was essentially priced out of competition for a few years because the big spending teams started utilizing the same philosophy and targeting the same previously undervalued players--- but they were now getting paid. In other words, I don't think this is a sign the Bills don't want to spend money, but it is a sign they'd like to be an organization on the cutting edge of football evaluation. This. plus he said he had no restrictions and that we were top 3 in spending last year. "And we’re going to change it. We need to change it and I will go to the end of the earth to make sure that we change it.” God I hope so 0:) 0:) 0:) 0:) 0:) http://www.buffalobills.com/news/article-2/Head-coaching-search-underway/0c65b2cb-6acc-4ec7-9d89-bcdcdfa4df8c
pimp 2 Posted January 1, 2013 Posted January 1, 2013 I thought Chan was an innovator of offensive schemes. Just because a college coach has an impressive record from an offensive standpoint...no way to tell how that translates to NFL. Will he stress finding a strong DC?? How to utilize CJ? A QB who is mobile or with pocket presence?? Alot of questions how a college coach will make the adjustment to "the Show". Thank you! What has Chip Kelly won so far? I'm all for a new approach but college success doesn't guarantee anything, IMO. I'm always cautious when hiring college HC without the NFL experience. The level of competition faced in college + coaches weekly pales in comparison to the NFL...every position is filled with a better athlete as well. How many time has a rookie spoke of the ability to adjust to the speed of the game at the NFL level? So I'm luke-warm on the whole fascination with Chip Kelly .
Buffalo Barbarian Posted January 1, 2013 Posted January 1, 2013 Its like a lot of what ProFootballFocus, KC Joyner and Aaron Schatz at ProFootballOutsiders have been doing...some very in depth statistical work Go Ireland! now the draft strategy is going to entail just reading football outsiders. that would be a step up considering how poorly we have drafted.
Punch Posted January 1, 2013 Posted January 1, 2013 That is disheartening. Holy crap, that's terrible. Yeah, that would pretty much disqualify Whisenhunt from any search for a coach who has a clue about probability. There seemed to be some confusion on WGR after they spoke with Brandon one-on-one in regards to what degree statistical analysis would be used in player evaluation due to the fact the dept. will be run by Jim Overdorf's group. This seems to have been clarified somewhat, but I don't know how much infrastructure could possibly be in place. The punting thing may or may not show Whisenhunt to have similar tendencies to "old fashioned" coaches like Gailey. Or it could mean nothing at all, with no context. Like zonabb implied, it's not really true analytics, but it seemed to make sense at the time. plus he said he had no restrictions and that we were top 3 in spending last year. "And we’re going to change it. We need to change it and I will go to the end of the earth to make sure that we change it.” God I hope so 0:) 0:) 0:) 0:) 0:) http://www.buffalobi...89-bcdcdfa4df8c Same here. Indications from Jerry Sullivan on WGR on Monday are that Russ Brandon has been all for making sweeping changes to the organizational approach for a few years, but he was held in check to some degree. I'd like to see an uninhibited youth infused new vision. Thank you! What has Chip Kelly won so far? I'm all for a new approach but college success doesn't guarantee anything, IMO. I'm always cautious when hiring college HC without the NFL experience. The level of competition faced in college + coaches weekly pales in comparison to the NFL...every position is filled with a better athlete as well. How many time has a rookie spoke of the ability to adjust to the speed of the game at the NFL level? So I'm luke-warm on the whole fascination with Chip Kelly . I'm interested in Chip Kelly because he has an innovative approach to offense--- however, it remains to be seen if that will translate to the NFL although it can be argued that the NCAAF innovations are emerging in the NFL year after year. You are right, though--- he hasn't accomplished enough to stand on those merits alone. I'd just like him to be under consideration and not dismissed out of hand.
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