Why schedules matter

[djp14150]

Actually what hasnt been talked about much but should be has to do with the scheduling format.

 

Back in the 70s....

 

the format was the 1st place teams played the other 2 divisions 1st and 4th place teams, their division teams, and 4 interleague games. Thus a defending first place team got to 5 games against 4 week 4th place teams to play. Say they went 6-2 in division, 3-1 within conference and 2-2 within division they ended up 11-5....likely in playoffs. The second and third place teams played each other thus instead of going 3-1 within conference they would go 2-2 and thus finish 10-6 and stuck in 2nd place. During this time you tended to have strong teams stay strong thus you had some domination by Miami, Pittsburgh, Dallas and Oakland.

 

During the late 80s and 90s they went with a different format. The 5th place teams tended to play 5th place teams and 3rd, and 4th place teams. In interleague they played 2nd -5th place teams. The first place teams played other 1st place teams and a 2nd and 3rd place team and in interleague they played the top 1st-4th place teams. Thus the first and last place teams played 5 different teams and a strong difference in strength of schedule. thus during this time you tended to have a worst to first change over in results in standings from year to year.

 

Post 2001 with the 4 division/4 team format they reverted back to the very similar strength format in the schedule. During this time you had teams that have been perenial division winners. Why...because of the sameness in the results of the schedule. the teams have 14 of 16 games the same.

 

If they changed the scheduling format to something like within conference the 3rd and 4th place teams played the other 3rd and 4th place teams and the 1st and 2nd place teams played the 1st and 2nd place teams this means 6 games different and thus you will then restore more of the worst to first from season to season.

 

If you dont believe me ...look back and the 3 eras of scheduling and see how much stability their was in playoff teams from year to year...or long dominance of teams like making playoffs 4 of 5 years or 5 of 7 years. the years they missed could be attributed to some key player injuries and a scheduling fluke where they had a much more difficult home/road schedule where location against the more difficult teams matter.