Afew Thoughts About The Game, in no particular order.....

[JohnC]

When you get a chance, start with the last year that we made the playoffs. Check out how mant corners we drafted since then in the first 4 rounds vs, how may DTs we have drafted. If you want, do it for every round. Or really, go back as far as you want. Then, let me know just how well it has worked.

Either way, thanks for the dialogue and I hope all is well.

http://www.drafthist...php/teams/bills

 

What you fail to mention with your argument that Nix has stressed the wrong positions in his three drafts is that he has augmented his draft picks with free agent and off the street pickups to buttress both sides of the line. Urbik and Pears were young free agent pickups. Just because they weren't drafted doesn't mean that there wasn't a recognition by Nix that the OL needed to be improved. On the defensive side Nix acquired Mario Williams, Anderson, Kyle Moore and also a case can be made to include Merriman to address the needs of the defensive line. Barnett is a LB but he was a decent pickup.

 

Bill, you have to look at the total body of work and not look at a segment of the work to justify your position. The real issue is that Nix, although he had opportunities, passed on "drafting" a qb when the opportunities were staring at him. He passed on Kaepernick and Dalton and instead took a CB in the second round a couple years ago.That was a strategic mistake that allowed the 49ers and Bengals to upgrade their team and keep the Bills severely understaffed at the most impactful position on a team. In hindsight, would Russell Wilson or Kirk Cousins have been a better pick than Graham in last year's draft?

 

I'm confident that if for example Kaepernick was taken a couple of years ago the dynamic of the team would be dramatically different. Nix/Gailey put their trust in a Fitz who was never accurate and never had an adequate arm. That was the blunder that set this franchise back for years. The three first round picks that Nix has made with Spiller, Dareus and Gilmore are good players who are going to get better. Their selections would have been more recognized as quality picks if Nix would have addressed the qb position when he had the opportunity to do so.

[Hatszel]

Agree. Seems like the laws of physics would dictate that since the ball moved FORWARD out of his hand with no other contact, then Fitz's arm was what moved it that way - thus incomplete pass.

 

As I have been told by many officials in my coaching days Physics has nothing to do with sports When intelligent people put the pin stripes on there minds often turn to mush!

[NewEra]

I figured you would make a comment about George Wilson and the 2nd W he could've secured.....if he could catch the ball. Thanks for the post Bill

[RevWarRifleman]

When you get a chance, start with the last year that we made the playoffs. Check out how mant corners we drafted since then in the first 4 rounds vs, how may DTs we have drafted. If you want, do it for every round. Or really, go back as far as you want. Then, let me know just how well it has worked.

Either way, thanks for the dialogue and I hope all is well.

http://www.drafthist...php/teams/bills

 

Criminal. The # of DB's we drafted is just that, criminal.!!!! Thanks for putting the website in, Bill. I only went back to 2005 & quickly counted 15! And precious few are still on the roster.

[mead107]

Fantastic post like always Bill.

 

I just can not figure out why chan goes brain dead at times.

[K-9]

Criminal. The # of DB's we drafted is just that, criminal.!!!! Thanks for putting the website in, Bill. I only went back to 2005 & quickly counted 15! And precious few are still on the roster.

 

Are we looking at just DBs taken in the first four rounds or for the entire draft for those years? I ask because I see 17 DBs taken in all rounds from 2005-2012. For grins I looked at the Patriot drafts for the same period and they took 15. And they haven't had to worry about playing Tom Brady twice a year! DBs are the best athletes in football and considering the sheer amount of time that nickel and dime defenses are played nowadays it's no surprise. I'll look at other teams to see if they spend as much on DBs as the Bills and Patriots seem to.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Orton's Arm]

What you fail to mention with your argument that Nix has stressed the wrong positions in his three drafts is that he has augmented his draft picks with free agent and off the street pickups to buttress both sides of the line. Urbik and Pears were young free agent pickups. Just because they weren't drafted doesn't mean that there wasn't a recognition by Nix that the OL needed to be improved. On the defensive side Nix acquired Mario Williams, Anderson, Kyle Moore and also a case can be made to include Merriman to address the needs of the defensive line. Barnett is a LB but he was a decent pickup.

 

Bill, you have to look at the total body of work and not look at a segment of the work to justify your position. The real issue is that Nix, although he had opportunities, passed on "drafting" a qb when the opportunities were staring at him. He passed on Kaepernick and Dalton and instead took a CB in the second round a couple years ago.That was a strategic mistake that allowed the 49ers and Bengals to upgrade their team and keep the Bills severely understaffed at the most impactful position on a team. In hindsight, would Russell Wilson or Kirk Cousins have been a better pick than Graham in last year's draft?

 

I'm confident that if for example Kaepernick was taken a couple of years ago the dynamic of the team would be dramatically different. Nix/Gailey put their trust in a Fitz who was never accurate and never had an adequate arm. That was the blunder that set this franchise back for years. The three first round picks that Nix has made with Spiller, Dareus and Gilmore are good players who are going to get better. Their selections would have been more recognized as quality picks if Nix would have addressed the qb position when he had the opportunity to do so.

 

I agree with the central point of your post. Nix has fixed the offensive line, and has added a ton of talent to the defensive line. His biggest failing as a GM has been that thus far, he's done nothing to fix the QB position. If he obtains a franchise QB over the next season or two, his next 2 - 3 years as a GM will be a success, even if he accomplishes nothing else.

 

But I also agree with Bill's main point. The Bills have traditionally overemphasized DBs in the draft, at the expense of other positions. There have been ten times over the last 40 years when the Bills used their first pick of the draft on a DB. On another ten occasions, they used their first pick of the draft on a RB. That's 20 first picks of the draft--a full 50%--on DBs + RBs. Over that same span, they've used 3.5 first picks of the draft on OTs + QBs. (The 2 OTs were John Fina and Mike Williams. The two QBs were Rob Johnson and half of Jim Kelly. Technically, Jim Kelly wasn't the Bills' first pick of the 1983 draft. But the Bills took him just two picks after they took a TE. So I've counted him as half.)

 

From 2001 - 2010, the Bills used their first pick of the draft on a DB on 3 occasions, and on a RB in another 3 instances. That's 60% of their first picks of the draft on RBs + DBs, as opposed to 0% on QBs. If the Bills have failed to find the successor to Kelly, there's a reason why. The RBs were typically taken by GMs looking for a quick fix, or an opportunity to upgrade the team as quickly as possible. C.J. Spiller is the exception to that rule: he truly was the best available player when the Bills picked. Many of the DBs chosen were either foolish, shortsighted reaches (such as Donte Whitner), or else were drafted to replace other DBs who'd been allowed to go first-contract-and-out. The position of DB has been an open wound for this franchise: a wound which causes us to bleed out first round picks.

 

The excessive focus on DBs and RBs is a symptom of two underlying problems. 1) The shortsightedness which has been all too typical of the Bills' post-Polian GMs. 2) The Bills' failure to invest the draft day resources typically needed to obtain a franchise QB. For example, TD decided not to trade up with Houston for Roethlisberger, because he felt Houston's price was too high. The result of this kind of thinking has been a team with no franchise quarterback, but with plenty of early picks filtering through the DB and RB positions.

[JohnC]

I agree with the central point of your post. Nix has fixed the offensive line, and has added a ton of talent to the defensive line. His biggest failing as a GM has been that thus far, he's done nothing to fix the QB position. If he obtains a franchise QB over the next season or two, his next 2 - 3 years as a GM will be a success, even if he accomplishes nothing else.

 

But I also agree with Bill's main point. The Bills have traditionally overemphasized DBs in the draft, at the expense of other positions. There have been ten times over the last 40 years when the Bills used their first pick of the draft on a DB. On another ten occasions, they used their first pick of the draft on a RB. That's 20 first picks of the draft--a full 50%--on DBs + RBs. Over that same span, they've used 3.5 first picks of the draft on OTs + QBs. (The 2 OTs were John Fina and Mike Williams. The two QBs were Rob Johnson and half of Jim Kelly. Technically, Jim Kelly wasn't the Bills' first pick of the 1983 draft. But the Bills took him just two picks after they took a TE. So I've counted him as half.)

 

From 2001 - 2010, the Bills used their first pick of the draft on a DB on 3 occasions, and on a RB in another 3 instances. That's 60% of their first picks of the draft on RBs + DBs, as opposed to 0% on QBs. If the Bills have failed to find the successor to Kelly, there's a reason why. The RBs were typically taken by GMs looking for a quick fix, or an opportunity to upgrade the team as quickly as possible. C.J. Spiller is the exception to that rule: he truly was the best available player when the Bills picked. Many of the DBs chosen were either foolish, shortsighted reaches (such as Donte Whitner), or else were drafted to replace other DBs who'd been allowed to go first-contract-and-out. The position of DB has been an open wound for this franchise: a wound which causes us to bleed out first round picks.

 

The excessive focus on DBs and RBs is a symptom of two underlying problems. 1) The shortsightedness which has been all too typical of the Bills' post-Polian GMs. 2) The Bills' failure to invest the draft day resources typically needed to obtain a franchise QB. For example, TD decided not to trade up with Houston for Roethlisberger, because he felt Houston's price was too high. The result of this kind of thinking has been a team with no franchise quarterback, but with plenty of early picks filtering through the DB and RB positions.

 

I'm primarily focusing on the Nix regime. If you look at the totality of his work he has not forgotten to address the needs of the OL and DL. He buttressed both sides of the line in the free agent market as well as the draft. (You did acknowledge that point.) As I have stated on numerous postings Nix made a major mistake in taking a CB, Aaron Williams, in the second round a couple of years ago when Kaepernick and Dalton were still on the board. I strongly believe that if he would have taken one of these two qbs his body of work would have been judged very differently.

 

Where I disagree with NYC Bill is that I have no problem for the most part in drafting a player in the vicinity of where he is ranked. Using that measurement his first round selections in Spiller, Dareus and Gilmore were all quality picks.

 

In my judgment Nix let pass an opportunity to acquire a legitimate franchise qb prospect that would have given this organization a major boost. That was a major mistake that set this franchise back. Nix also sabotaged his rebuilding efforts when he selected a retread HC to manage the players he added to the roster. Gailey is simply out of his depth. The stubborn HC took a qb with limited abilities and through his perplexing play calling emphasized his weaknesses. He also took a scintillating big play back and oddly neutralized his special talents by limiting his touches.

 

Nix might be a good scout but he is not a good GM. Building a roster is more than about individual players. It is the purposeful attention to the relationship of the players/positions and value to the roster.

Edited December 12, 2012 by JohnC

[Bill from NYC]

I agree with the central point of your post. Nix has fixed the offensive line, and has added a ton of talent to the defensive line. His biggest failing as a GM has been that thus far, he's done nothing to fix the QB position. If he obtains a franchise QB over the next season or two, his next 2 - 3 years as a GM will be a success, even if he accomplishes nothing else.

 

But I also agree with Bill's main point. The Bills have traditionally overemphasized DBs in the draft, at the expense of other positions. There have been ten times over the last 40 years when the Bills used their first pick of the draft on a DB. On another ten occasions, they used their first pick of the draft on a RB. That's 20 first picks of the draft--a full 50%--on DBs + RBs. Over that same span, they've used 3.5 first picks of the draft on OTs + QBs. (The 2 OTs were John Fina and Mike Williams. The two QBs were Rob Johnson and half of Jim Kelly. Technically, Jim Kelly wasn't the Bills' first pick of the 1983 draft. But the Bills took him just two picks after they took a TE. So I've counted him as half.)

 

From 2001 - 2010, the Bills used their first pick of the draft on a DB on 3 occasions, and on a RB in another 3 instances. That's 60% of their first picks of the draft on RBs + DBs, as opposed to 0% on QBs. If the Bills have failed to find the successor to Kelly, there's a reason why. The RBs were typically taken by GMs looking for a quick fix, or an opportunity to upgrade the team as quickly as possible. C.J. Spiller is the exception to that rule: he truly was the best available player when the Bills picked. Many of the DBs chosen were either foolish, shortsighted reaches (such as Donte Whitner), or else were drafted to replace other DBs who'd been allowed to go first-contract-and-out. The position of DB has been an open wound for this franchise: a wound which causes us to bleed out first round picks.

 

The excessive focus on DBs and RBs is a symptom of two underlying problems. 1) The shortsightedness which has been all too typical of the Bills' post-Polian GMs. 2) The Bills' failure to invest the draft day resources typically needed to obtain a franchise QB. For example, TD decided not to trade up with Houston for Roethlisberger, because he felt Houston's price was too high. The result of this kind of thinking has been a team with no franchise quarterback, but with plenty of early picks filtering through the DB and RB positions.

 

Thanks EA! It is evident every week that neglecting the qb position, especially given the rule changes, is the biggest reason for the continuing losses. I don't think that there is any doubt left. This however does not excuse the squandering of resources on the db and rb positions. The waste of resources at these positions is actually bizzare, let alone infuriating.

I have no idea what the Bills will concentrate on in the 2013 draft. Nix is talking QB which is great, if a good one does exit. But remember, Fred is probably finished, A. Williams actually sucks and should be cut, and McKelvin is all but gone. Nothing would surprise me.

 

It never ends, does it?

[JohnC]

 

I have no idea what the Bills will concentrate on in the 2013 draft. Nix is talking QB which is great, if a good one does exit. But remember, Fred is probably finished, A. Williams actually sucks and should be cut, and McKelvin is all but gone. Nothing would surprise me.

 

It never ends, does it?

 

Don't fret. Nix is going to take a qb in either the first or second round. How do I know? It's about marketing. The fanbase is at the end of the line with this backwater franchise. If a fresh qb face is not added to the roster the vacancy level will go up at that archaic stadium the team plays in. Brandon will have a say as to what position to address in one of the priority rounds. It's called business!!!!!!

[Bill from NYC]

Don't fret. Nix is going to take a qb in either the first or second round. How do I know? It's about marketing. The fanbase is at the end of the line with this backwater franchise. If a fresh qb face is not added to the roster the vacancy level will go up at that archaic stadium the team plays in. Brandon will have a say as to what position to address in one of the priority rounds. It's called business!!!!!!

 

GREAT point John!!!

 

Btw, wrt your previous post, I have given Nix all the credit one can give for building the lines, especially the OL. For well over a decade, I blasted the Bills OL. Now, I actually defend them. For exmple, some posters are not high on Pears. I happen to think that he is a good RT. We certainly could have used him on Sunday. If we don't lose Levitre, we are deep at OG. Great job by Nix!

 

If Nix can find a good qb in this draft, the Bills will have a chance at winning football games. As I said in the OP, at this point I would make an offer for Rivers and again, I am not a huge fan of his. I say this because there is nobody else out there to trade for imo. Would Bellichick trade us Mallett if he isn't stoned out on drugs? Ain't happening. And sadly, this appears to be a weak qb draft.

 

Then again, who knows? As Bills fans, we are conditioned to cling to hope.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Don't fret. Nix is going to take a qb in either the first or second round. How do I know? It's about marketing. The fanbase is at the end of the line with this backwater franchise. If a fresh qb face is not added to the roster the vacancy level will go up at that archaic stadium the team plays in. Brandon will have a say as to what position to address in one of the priority rounds. It's called business!!!!!!

 

I feel the same way John. I said about a week ago that the Bills would draft a quarterback because they know for PR reasons as well as for football reasons, they have zero choice. They've succeeded in backing themselves into a corner as far as the QB issue is concerned.

 

Of course I felt the same way last year when they passed up Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, and Kirk Cousins.

[JohnC]

I feel the same way John. I said about a week ago that the Bills would draft a quarterback because they know for PR reasons as well as for football reasons, they have zero choice. They've succeeded in backing themselves into a corner as far as the QB issue is concerned.

 

Of course I felt the same way last year when they passed up Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, and Kirk Cousins.

 

I strongly suspect that Nix was going to draft Cousins in the fourth round but was caught off guard when Shanahan took a second qb in the same draft. Living in the Md/DC area and seeing Cousins on a few occasions I have no doubt that with the erratic play of Fitz Cousins would now be our starting qb. Cousins is very intelligent from and academic and football standpoint. He can read defenses and he possesses something that Fitz clearly doesn't have: accuracy.

 

My viewpoint on the next draft is that Nix has to identify qbs he believes that are capable of being a franchise qb. Make a list and then take the best one in the first round. If he thinks that the best available qb is a reach at his drafting point then he needs to maneuver down a bit and pull the trigger. Enough is enough.

Edited December 12, 2012 by JohnC

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I strongly suspect that Nix was going to draft Cousins in the fourth round but was caught off guard when Shanahan took a second qb in the same draft. Living in the Md/DC area and seeing Cousins on a few occasions I have no doubt that with the erratic play of Fitz Cousins would now be our starting qb. Cousins is very intelligent from and academic and football standpoint. He can read defenses and he possesses something that Fitz clearly doesn't have: accuracy.

 

My viewpoint on the next draft is that Nix has to identify qbs he believes that are capable of being a franchise qb. Make a list and then take the best one with the first round. If he thinks that the best available qb is a reach at his drafting point then he needs to maneuver down a bit and pull the trigger. Enough is enough.

 

To your first paragraph, I too believe the Bills have refused to "reach" for a quarterback since Nix took over and ended up missing those players as a result of hoping that they'd slide down to their pick.

 

As far as maneuvering in the draft, yes either trade down or trade back up into the first round.

Edited December 12, 2012 by San Jose Bills Fan

[JohnC]

GREAT point John!!!

 

Btw, wrt your previous post, I have given Nix all the credit one can give for building the lines, especially the OL. For well over a decade, I blasted the Bills OL. Now, I actually defend them. For exmple, some posters are not high on Pears. I happen to think that he is a good RT. We certainly could have used him on Sunday. If we don't lose Levitre, we are deep at OG. Great job by Nix!

 

If Nix can find a good qb in this draft, the Bills will have a chance at winning football games. As I said in the OP, at this point I would make an offer for Rivers and again, I am not a huge fan of his. I say this because there is nobody else out there to trade for imo. Would Bellichick trade us Mallett if he isn't stoned out on drugs? Ain't happening. And sadly, this appears to be a weak qb draft.

 

Then again, who knows? As Bills fans, we are conditioned to cling to hope.

 

Rivers has been a good qb for quite awhile. It appears that he needs a change of scenery to recharge his fading batteries. However, I don't think it would be a smart decision for us to acquire him. We need to find our own qb prospect and get a long term solution to our interminable problem.

 

I don't agree with your assessment that this is a weak qb class. There is no doubt that there are no "special" qb prospects in this draft. But there are plenty of good prospects. Smith, Barkley, Landry Jones, Glennon and others are good prospects that will offer this team some hope. Instead of having a qb prospect already in the pipeline learning the game the process of developing a qb has been delayed again because the GM was looking for the special player instead of the capable player. The problem with Nix either taking the elite qb prospect or not taking a qb at all approach is that even when that caliber of a prospect is available the chances are more likely that you are not in position to take that type of qb. There is a saying: Don't let perfect be the enemy of the good.

Edited December 12, 2012 by JohnC

[Orton's Arm]

I'm primarily focusing on the Nix regime. If you look at the totality of his work he has not forgotten to address the needs of the OL and DL. He buttressed both sides of the line in the free agent market as well as the draft. (You did acknowledge that point.) As I have stated on numerous postings Nix made a major mistake in taking a CB, Aaron Williams, in the second round a couple of years ago when Kaepernick and Dalton were still on the board. I strongly believe that if he would have taken one of these two qbs his body of work would have been judged very differently.

 

Where I disagree with NYC Bill is that I have no problem for the most part in drafting a player in the vicinity of where he is ranked. Using that measurement his first round selections in Spiller, Dareus and Gilmore were all quality picks.

 

In my judgment Nix let pass an opportunity to acquire a legitimate franchise qb prospect that would have given this organization a major boost. That was a major mistake that set this franchise back. Nix also sabotaged his rebuilding efforts when he selected a retread HC to manage the players he added to the roster. Gailey is simply out of his depth. The stubborn HC took a qb with limited abilities and through his perplexing play calling emphasized his weaknesses. He also took a scintillating big play back and oddly neutralized his special talents by limiting his touches.

 

Nix might be a good scout but he is not a good GM. Building a roster is more than about individual players. It is the purposeful attention to the relationship of the players/positions and value to the roster.

 

> Where I disagree with NYC Bill is that I have no problem for the most part in drafting a player in the

> vicinity of where he is ranked. Using that measurement his first round selections in Spiller, Dareus

> and Gilmore were all quality picks.

 

My view is somewhere in between your view and Bill's. To me, it's perfectly acceptable to draft a DB in the first round, as long as you plan to keep your best DBs for the entirety of their careers. If you let your DBs with the best combination of youth + proven accomplishment leave via free agency--as the Bills have done 3.5 times over the last decade--then a decision to use first round picks on replacement DBs cannot possibly be justified. (The 3.5 DBs who left in the primes of their careers were Antoine Winfield, Nate Clements, Jabari Greer, and half of Donte Whitner. Whitner only counts as half because he's not in the same category as the other three as a football player, and didn't sign the same relative size of contract the other three signed.)

 

For the Bills, the RB position has likewise been a hamster wheel. Back in the '90s, the Bills neglected other positions to use a first round pick on Antowain Smith. Just four years later, TD thought he'd upgrade the RB position by taking Travis Henry. Two years after that, TD again had the thought of upgrading the RB position, so he used a first round pick on McGahee. Three years later, the very first thing Marv did as GM was to try, yet again, to upgrade the RB position, by squandering the 12th overall pick on Marshawn Lynch. Four years after the Lynch pick, Nix used a top-10 pick on C.J. Spiller. Prior to the Spiller pick, none of the early picks used on RBs had been necessary. Or even justifiable. Spiller was different: he wasn't just a case of taking a RB for the sake of taking a RB, as each of the other picks had been. It was felt--correctly--that Spiller was a special player.

 

The Bills have traditionally had a pro-RB bias. That is, if two roughly comparable players are on the board, and if one is a RB, they will tend to take the RB. Even if the other player has moderately better long term career prospects, they've typically taken the RB anyway; on the theory that the RB will contribute more during his rookie year. If you ask me, the Bills should have a moderately strong anti-RB bias: they should only use early picks on RBs when the RBs are significantly better football players than the other available options. Spiller is enough better of a football player than the Bills' other available options to amply justify his selection, even given a moderately strong anti-RB bias.

 

> The stubborn HC took a qb with limited abilities and through his perplexing play calling emphasized his weaknesses.

 

I'm not sure I agree with you there. Fitz's average yards per attempt is higher under Gailey than it's been at any prior point in his career. Gailey's play calling is resulting in open receivers. They are often open on short-to-intermediate routes. Fitz isn't hitting the receivers due to his lack of accuracy. There isn't much more Gailey can do to mask Fitz's weaknesses, at least not on a per-pass-attempt basis. Gailey's other option--as you've hinted--would be to minimize the number of pass attempts Fitz is asked to make. That would be similar to masking the effect of having an inaccurate field goal kicker, by often going for it on fourth down while inside the other team's 30. You can't make Fitz or the field goal any more accurate on a per-attempt basis; but you can mask the effect their lack of accuracy will have on the course of the game.

 

> He also took a scintillating big play back and oddly neutralized his special talents by limiting his touches.

 

His decision to greatly limit Spiller's touches is inexplicable.

[apuszczalowski]

Just a comment on the post above, I think the McGahee pick was similar to others you mention as being a "Best Player Available" type Pick. McGahee prior to his injury was projected to go at the very top of the draft, if not #1 overall. Due to the injury, he fell to the Bills who took him with the plans of going run heavy with 2 very good RBs (something that teams started going to around this time). It may not have been the best choice at the time though because they knew he would miss a season to recover, and Henry didn't want to share the RB role so it didn't work out.

 

As for the DBs, its possible that the Bills draft them early because they understand that having good ones are needed in todays pass happy, offence first NFL and know that good ones in FA are expensive. Also DBs account for over 4 players on the field on defence no matter what defence you run (4-3 or 3-4) so chances are you are going to draft a DB is more likely then say a QB, where you have only one of them on the field at a time. The Bills, especially recently, have been re-signing and keeping their players around that they feel are contributors and who agree to re-sign (its not always on the team when a player leaves, sometimes they want to see if someones willing to overpay for them) They made an attempt to re-sign Poz and Whitner (Whitner thought he was worth more and the fans wanted him gone anyways, and Poz left cause he wasn't happy in a 3-4), otherwise Winfield was let go because they thought he would be too expensive to re-sign and they felt they had his replacement on staff already in Clements. Clements wasn't re-signed cause he knew he was in for a huge payday that the Bills couldn't afford (and he was right when SF Overpaid). As for Greer (is he still playing?) He was let go, but didn't really do all that much after leaving. Players come and go all the time, and sometimes its not the teams fault they couldn't keep them around.

 

The big mistake the Bills have made has been that they have been unable to find a franchise type QB, although its not like they haven't tried, or its a simple task. They have gone the FA route, they tried trades, they trade PS raids, they tried drafting, they tried the CFL, the problem has been they haven't struck gold on a long term solution. But theres probably half the NFL in the same boat. How many times have teams found someone that one year looks like the answer, and the next year is looking to be replaced? Its not as simple as just going to the draft and grabbing a guy early and you have a franchise QB. Everyone wants an elite Brady/Manning type of QB, and they expect that their QB should perform like them or else they can't win. Theres alot of luck in trying to find one of those QBs. The Pats had one fo the biggest horseshoes up their @22 when they stumbled on brady in the 6th round, the Colts have been even luckier in that they had the #1 overall pick in the year Manning came out, AND in the year possibly the next manning was available in the draft. The Packers were lucky enough to have Rodgers fall into their laps after almost every team in the league passed over him and they could take Favres replacement and allow him to learn from him for a few years. Then you have teams like the Raiders whom everyone assumed would have a franchise QB in Russell when they took him at #1, or the 49ers when they took Alex Smith. Every year there are guys that come out and lead their teams for a short period and people think are the answer, then their teams are looking for replacements.

[JohnC]

 

 

The big mistake the Bills have made has been that they have been unable to find a franchise type QB, although its not like they haven't tried, or its a simple task. They have gone the FA route, they tried trades, they trade PS raids, they tried drafting, they tried the CFL, the problem has been they haven't struck gold on a long term solution. But theres probably half the NFL in the same boat. How many times have teams found someone that one year looks like the answer, and the next year is looking to be replaced? Its not as simple as just going to the draft and grabbing a guy early and you have a franchise QB. Everyone wants an elite Brady/Manning type of QB, and they expect that their QB should perform like them or else they can't win. Theres alot of luck in trying to find one of those QBs. The Pats had one fo the biggest horseshoes up their @22 when they stumbled on brady in the 6th round, the Colts have been even luckier in that they had the #1 overall pick in the year Manning came out, AND in the year possibly the next manning was available in the draft. The Packers were lucky enough to have Rodgers fall into their laps after almost every team in the league passed over him and they could take Favres replacement and allow him to learn from him for a few years. Then you have teams like the Raiders whom everyone assumed would have a franchise QB in Russell when they took him at #1, or the 49ers when they took Alex Smith. Every year there are guys that come out and lead their teams for a short period and people think are the answer, then their teams are looking for replacements.

 

A generation worth of excuses is not acceptable to me. Some attempts at qb acquisitions haven't worked out. So what! If they don't, you move on and try again in your dogged pursuit of an authentic franchise qb. The current situation with the Bills is that they invested in a qb who was never consistently accurate and never had an adequate enough arm to be a starter. That was a hideous miscalculation by Nix/Gailey. It borders on malfeasance. Fitz is in my mind a superb long-term sub, just as Riech was during the Kelly era.

 

Nix let opportunities pass by to acquire good qb prospects that teams selecting behind him seized on. Kaepernich, Dalton, Russell and Cousins come to mind. I'm not declaring that any of these young prospects are going to be stars in this league. But that doesn't mean that they won't be legitimate starting qbs. Nix has taken an approach that when he selects a qb he wants to be sure that it is the right selection. His three year hesitancy to pull the trigger on a qb selection when there were viable candidates has sabotaged what he has accomplished. As I stated in a prior post: Don't make perfect be the enemy of the good.

[JohnC]

> Where I disagree with NYC Bill is that I have no problem for the most part in drafting a player in the

> vicinity of where he is ranked. Using that measurement his first round selections in Spiller, Dareus

> and Gilmore were all quality picks.

 

My view is somewhere in between your view and Bill's. To me, it's perfectly acceptable to draft a DB in the first round, as long as you plan to keep your best DBs for the entirety of their careers. If you let your DBs with the best combination of youth + proven accomplishment leave via free agency--as the Bills have done 3.5 times over the last decade--then a decision to use first round picks on replacement DBs cannot possibly be justified. (The 3.5 DBs who left in the primes of their careers were Antoine Winfield, Nate Clements, Jabari Greer, and half of Donte Whitner. Whitner only counts as half because he's not in the same category as the other three as a football player, and didn't sign the same relative size of contract the other three signed.)

 

Nix has taken the stance right from the start that his primary approach to building a roster was to make good draft selections, develop them and for the most part retain them. He made it clear that he would rather pay a player that he developed than pay a free agent a ransom price to replace the player he originally drafted. I believe that he has done that (SJ is an example) and will continue to do so. (Levitre, hopefully.)

 

For the Bills, the RB position has likewise been a hamster wheel

 

I have a strong suspicion that the cartoonishly inept owner had an influence in the drafting of Lynch. There were numerous comments made that the owner had a special interest in Lynch. As it turns out Lynch has been an impactful player in an environment that was better for him than in western NY..

 

From the start I have believed that Spiller was a reasonable pick. He was a top ten talent who was drafted in the vicinity of where he was ranked. You won't get much criticism from me when that approach is taken. Nix and Gailey made the point that when they selected him the team lacked a big play player and that he was the caliber of player who could fill that void. They were right.

 

 

 

 

 

> The stubborn HC took a qb with limited abilities and through his perplexing play calling emphasized his weaknesses.

 

I'm not sure I agree with you there. Fitz's average yards per attempt is higher under Gailey than it's been at any prior point in his career. Gailey's play calling is resulting in open receivers. They are often open on short-to-intermediate routes. Fitz isn't hitting the receivers due to his lack of accuracy. There isn't much more Gailey can do to mask Fitz's weaknesses, at least not on a per-pass-attempt basis. Gailey's other option--as you've hinted--would be to minimize the number of pass attempts Fitz is asked to make. That would be similar to masking the effect of having an inaccurate field goal kicker, by often going for it on fourth down while inside the other team's 30. You can't make Fitz or the field goal any more accurate on a per-attempt basis; but you can mask the effect their lack of accuracy will have on the course of the game.

 

With respect to Fitz I don't bother with the interpretation of stats. In evaluating him I trust my eyes. He is lacking the required tools to be a starter in this league. He is an erratic passer with limited arm strength. There is nothing more to say. He could be a good backup at best. A Reich type qb who is well suited to the backup role. As far as I am concerned anyone who made the determination that Fitz was a viable starter should be fired for malfeasance!

 

]> He also took a scintillating big play back and oddly neutralized his special talents by limiting his touches.

 

His decision to greatly limit Spiller's touches is inexplicable.

 

The insanely stubborn manner in which Gailey has deliberately limited the touches of his best player on the field has conclusively proved to me that CG is nothing more than a fraudulent hack coach. Nix's selection of him as a HC is a blunder that can eventually undermine his own status as a GM. The repeated cycle of retread HCs in Buffalo is absurd!

[Orton's Arm]

Thanks EA! It is evident every week that neglecting the qb position, especially given the rule changes, is the biggest reason for the continuing losses. I don't think that there is any doubt left. This however does not excuse the squandering of resources on the db and rb positions. The waste of resources at these positions is actually bizzare, let alone infuriating.

I have no idea what the Bills will concentrate on in the 2013 draft. Nix is talking QB which is great, if a good one does exit. But remember, Fred is probably finished, A. Williams actually sucks and should be cut, and McKelvin is all but gone. Nothing would surprise me.

 

It never ends, does it?

 

> It is evident every week that neglecting the qb position, especially given the rule changes, is the biggest reason for the continuing losses.

 

I completely agree. Nix needs to find a franchise QB, even if it means trading away three years' worth of draft picks!

 

> This however does not excuse the squandering of resources on the db and rb positions.

 

Also agreed. Granted, a first round pick used on a RB or a DB is not automatically a waste. Other teams draft RBs or DBs as part of a long term plan. The Bills typically draft them due to shortsightedness. Antowain Smith, Travis Henry, Willis McGahee, and Marshawn Lynch each represented footsteps on the hamster wheel. So too did all the first round DBs they've allowed to go first-contract-and-out over the years. The opposite of this approach would be to use a first round pick on a guy like Antoine Winfield, and then retain him for the entirety of his career! That way you'd use your first round picks on long term building blocks, not just spins of the hamster wheel.

 

Which leads me to . . .

 

Just a comment on the post above, I think the McGahee pick was similar to others you mention as being a "Best Player Available" type Pick. McGahee prior to his injury was projected to go at the very top of the draft, if not #1 overall. Due to the injury, he fell to the Bills who took him with the plans of going run heavy with 2 very good RBs (something that teams started going to around this time). It may not have been the best choice at the time though because they knew he would miss a season to recover, and Henry didn't want to share the RB role so it didn't work out.

 

As for the DBs, its possible that the Bills draft them early because they understand that having good ones are needed in todays pass happy, offence first NFL and know that good ones in FA are expensive. Also DBs account for over 4 players on the field on defence no matter what defence you run (4-3 or 3-4) so chances are you are going to draft a DB is more likely then say a QB, where you have only one of them on the field at a time. The Bills, especially recently, have been re-signing and keeping their players around that they feel are contributors and who agree to re-sign (its not always on the team when a player leaves, sometimes they want to see if someones willing to overpay for them) They made an attempt to re-sign Poz and Whitner (Whitner thought he was worth more and the fans wanted him gone anyways, and Poz left cause he wasn't happy in a 3-4), otherwise Winfield was let go because they thought he would be too expensive to re-sign and they felt they had his replacement on staff already in Clements. Clements wasn't re-signed cause he knew he was in for a huge payday that the Bills couldn't afford (and he was right when SF Overpaid). As for Greer (is he still playing?) He was let go, but didn't really do all that much after leaving. Players come and go all the time, and sometimes its not the teams fault they couldn't keep them around.

 

The big mistake the Bills have made has been that they have been unable to find a franchise type QB, although its not like they haven't tried, or its a simple task. They have gone the FA route, they tried trades, they trade PS raids, they tried drafting, they tried the CFL, the problem has been they haven't struck gold on a long term solution. But theres probably half the NFL in the same boat. How many times have teams found someone that one year looks like the answer, and the next year is looking to be replaced? Its not as simple as just going to the draft and grabbing a guy early and you have a franchise QB. Everyone wants an elite Brady/Manning type of QB, and they expect that their QB should perform like them or else they can't win. Theres alot of luck in trying to find one of those QBs. The Pats had one fo the biggest horseshoes up their @22 when they stumbled on brady in the 6th round, the Colts have been even luckier in that they had the #1 overall pick in the year Manning came out, AND in the year possibly the next manning was available in the draft. The Packers were lucky enough to have Rodgers fall into their laps after almost every team in the league passed over him and they could take Favres replacement and allow him to learn from him for a few years. Then you have teams like the Raiders whom everyone assumed would have a franchise QB in Russell when they took him at #1, or the 49ers when they took Alex Smith. Every year there are guys that come out and lead their teams for a short period and people think are the answer, then their teams are looking for replacements.

 

> I think the McGahee pick was similar to others you mention as being a "Best Player Available" type Pick.

 

That's how TD justified it, both to others and (presumably) to himself. As you pointed out, McGahee would have gone very early in that draft, had it not been for his injury. McGahee represented the "best player available" only if he recovered all of his pre-injury speed. TD's decision to draft him represented a gamble he would do exactly that. Other teams felt differently, which is why he fell as low as he did. The other teams were right: he was never as fast in Buffalo as he'd been before his injury.

 

Making that kind of gamble was unnecessary, considering that TD had (also unnecessarily) addressed the RB position just two years earlier.

 

> Due to the injury, he fell to the Bills who took him with the plans of going run heavy with 2 very good RBs . . .

 

Perhaps TD and Gregg had discussed plans to go run heavy with two good RBs. But assuming those discussions occurred, they remained hypothetical only, with no visible effect on Gregg's or Gilbride's game plans. When both Henry and McGahee were healthy, it was always the case that one would get almost all the carries; whereas the other would get few if any carries.

 

> As for the DBs, its possible that the Bills draft them early because they understand that having good ones are needed in todays pass happy, offence first NFL . . .

 

Again, I don't object to taking a DB early, provided three things are true. 1) He must not be a reach. 2) If successful as a player, he must be retained for the entirety of his career. 3) The Bills must never pass up a good QB prospect to take a RB or DB.

 

> The big mistake the Bills have made has been that they have been unable to find a

> franchise type QB, although its not like they haven't tried, or its a simple task. They

> have gone the FA route, they tried trades, they trade PS raids, they tried drafting, they

> tried the CFL . . .

 

The above reminded me of the below, hypothetical conversation.

 

Guy1: My roof is leaking, and it's driving me nuts.

Guy2: Well fix it.

Guy1: That's the thing. I've tried everything, and nothing works. It keeps leaking.

Guy2: What, specifically, have you tried?

Guy1: Everything! I've tried duct tape, cellophane, wax paper. I've tried cardboard. I've tried piling pebbles up there. I even built a lean-to on top of my roof, just to see if that would help. It didn't. The other week I installed some big fans up there, in an effort to blow rain drops to the side before they could land on my roof. That didn't work either! I've tried everything, man.

Guy2: Have you tried, um, installing new tar paper and new shingles?

Guy1: Are you kidding me? That stuff's expensive, man! I prefer to spend my money in other ways, like buying a brand new car every four years. If I'm lucky I get a few hundred bucks for selling the four-year-old-car, so that adds up real quick. Especially because my wife drives a car too; so that's two cars which each need to be replaced every four years. I guess I'll have to deal with the leaky roof.

 

Not since the Rob Johnson trade have the Bills used their first pick of the draft on a QB.