BisonMan Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 For those that don't think the Bills need a new QB to make the playoffs, just look at how ESPN's QBR system rates QBs and how highly that correlates with a team's playoff chances. So far this year, of the 12 QBs with the highest QBR, 10 are on team's that will make the playoffs if they hold to form (i.e. beat teams they will play with lower win %). The two that aren't in the top 12 (Flacco and Cutler) play for teams with elite defenses and still have QBRs better than the median (QBR>50). The same cannot be said of QB Rating where just 8 of the 12 projected playoff teams have QBs in the top 12. Four QBs in the lower half of the QB rating system are on playoff teams (Flacco, Cutler, Luck and Eli Manning). Most interesting is Luck, whose QBR is 6th best in the league but whose QB Rating is 29th. My eye test says Luck is clutch and his QBR bears that out. Fitz...not so much even though his traditional QB rating is higher than Luck's and many others. In fact, Fitz has a QBR of 47.2 (27th) but a rating of 85.1 (17th). Fitz's QBR looks a lot closer to where I'd put him in the league than his QB rating does. It also tells me that the Bills won't make the playoffs until either Fitz gets a lot better and the defense gets a lot better OR the Bills get a new QB. I know it isn't really news to most here that the Bills need a new QB but it's nice to see the math bear out that opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrags Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 (edited) Yay. Another thread about how you must have a HOF QB in order to reach the playoffs. It's been what? 2 days? Edit: that's sarcasm. Your newer here so I won't be my usual @$$hole self. Edited December 4, 2012 by mrags Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BisonMan Posted December 4, 2012 Author Share Posted December 4, 2012 Edit: that's sarcasm. Your newer here so I won't be my usual @$$hole self. Close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astrobot Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I applaud your use of facts and info to prove a point. I will warn you that TBD posters for the most part cannot relate to such left-brained reasoning. Try the limbic or amygdala approach next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meathead Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 i will agree that the nfl has ruined the game due to making the sport the most one-position specific of any other prominant pro sport but still fitz isnt the biggest problem here. he was early this season and probably much of the last half last year but he hasnt been recently his rating is pulled down by his early struggles but hes been pretty solid for a while now. good enough to win in this league hes not a strength but hes not a weakness. subpar as elite qbs go but still better than about half the league. good enough with a good team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Pretty interesting stuff. Matt Ryan at #3. Makes me contemplate the MNF game and how Brees was so much more dynamic but threw 5 picks where Ryan was lackluster but mistake-free. Another interesting feature, Alex Smith at #7. edit: That game was on Thursday, wasn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I love how Espn thinks it can just make up its own rating system, as if the regular QB rating isn't good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 For those that don't think the Bills need a new QB to make the playoffs, just look at how ESPN's QBR system rates QBs and how highly that correlates with a team's playoff chances. So far this year, of the 12 QBs with the highest QBR, 10 are on team's that will make the playoffs if they hold to form (i.e. beat teams they will play with lower win %). The two that aren't in the top 12 (Flacco and Cutler) play for teams with elite defenses and still have QBRs better than the median (QBR>50). The same cannot be said of QB Rating where just 8 of the 12 projected playoff teams have QBs in the top 12. Four QBs in the lower half of the QB rating system are on playoff teams (Flacco, Cutler, Luck and Eli Manning). Most interesting is Luck, whose QBR is 6th best in the league but whose QB Rating is 29th. My eye test says Luck is clutch and his QBR bears that out. Fitz...not so much even though his traditional QB rating is higher than Luck's and many others. In fact, Fitz has a QBR of 47.2 (27th) but a rating of 85.1 (17th). Fitz's QBR looks a lot closer to where I'd put him in the league than his QB rating does. It also tells me that the Bills won't make the playoffs until either Fitz gets a lot better and the defense gets a lot better OR the Bills get a new QB. I know it isn't really news to most here that the Bills need a new QB but it's nice to see the math bear out that opinion. Excellent post. Interesting about the espn rating. I love how Espn thinks it can just make up its own rating system, as if the regular QB rating isn't good enough. Um ... maybe it isn't good enough?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I love how Espn thinks it can just make up its own rating system, as if the regular QB rating isn't good enough. I don't have a problem with the Sabermetric movement in sports. I think it's interesting as a science and as a social phenomena. There are lots of very educated people trying to become sports executives via statistical analysis. Billy Beane was a former player but he spawned a movement that has attracted lots of MIT and Ivy League grads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 i will agree that the nfl has ruined the game due to making the sport the most one-position specific of any other prominant pro sport but still fitz isnt the biggest problem here. he was early this season and probably much of the last half last year but he hasnt been recently his rating is pulled down by his early struggles but hes been pretty solid for a while now. good enough to win in this league hes not a strength but hes not a weakness. subpar as elite qbs go but still better than about half the league. good enough with a good team Being a QB that can rarely ever complete a pass over 10 yards is being a weakness. Believe what you like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I don't have a problem with the Sabermetric movement in sports. I think it's interesting as a science and as a social phenomena. There are lots of very educated people trying to become sports executives via statistical analysis. Billy Beane was a former player but he spawned a movement that has attracted lots of MIT and Ivy League grads. Yeah I concur re sabremetrics. My comment was more born out of dislike for Espn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Yeah I concur re sabremetrics. My comment was more born out of dislike for Espn. Oh yeah. I hear you there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BisonMan Posted December 4, 2012 Author Share Posted December 4, 2012 Even worse, Fitz doesn't have one of the highest 50 game QBRs this year. His best game was against KC and ranks 56th among the best games of the year at QB. Fitz has been up and down and down all year. His last three game QBR's are 62.5, 16.3 and 78.6. So, he's never great but sometimes horrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justnzane Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Being a QB that can rarely ever complete a pass over 10 yards is being a weakness. Believe what you like Out of all the weeks to critique Fritz's arm, I think this week is the wrong one in light of 4 dropped passes and a 51 yard strike to Graham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gumby Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I don't need math to know you can usually pick division winners by which team has the best QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 If statistics can show anything... and ESPN has their own special statistics... can Tim Tebow ever look good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dean Cain Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I don't line QBR, it is developed by statistical gurus in this pass happy non bump coverage era we live in. Wes Welker wouldn't have made it in the 70s, or 80s. That said the QB rating system seemed to work for Steve Young who is the all-time leader. I've read about the QBR & like a Wall Street derivative it overstates the value of one player ideally the QB. If you want a real stat why we suck we've been a bottom 8 defense since Gailey took over in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BisonMan Posted December 4, 2012 Author Share Posted December 4, 2012 I've read about the QBR & like a Wall Street derivative it overstates the value of one player ideally the QB. If you want a real stat why we suck we've been a bottom 8 defense since Gailey took over in 2010. As a previous posted noted, QBR points out all too well that the QB position has become the determining factor for success in teh NFL. Rule changes have almost completely eliminated defense as a factor in which teams make/miss the playoffs. Looking at the top 12 teams in total defense (I pick 12 because 12 teams make the playoffs), only half of them are likely to make the playoffs this year. Basically, it's a coin flip if you have a top defense...but not really. Teams with top defenses not currently in a playoff slot: Arizona, Cincy, San Diego, NY Jets, Dallas and St. Louis. None has a top 12 QBR quarterback. Teams with top defenses currently in a playoff spot: Pitt, SF, Denver, Seattle, Chicago and Houston. All have quarterbacks with a top 12 QBR. So, defense no longer even gets you a chance to play in the playoffs, let alone "win championships". It's a sad state for the sport in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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