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Posted

The Bills do have a chance to finish 5th or 6th in the conference, but those odds are less than 1%. So, while there is a chance (and we wouldn't want the optimists flag bearer to stop waving his flag now), it's not a reasonable one.

 

So you're telling me there's a chance. YEAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Posted

How does that make sense? Buffalo 5-7, win out 9-7. Indy 8-4, lose out 8-8. Cincy & Pitt 7-5, lose out 7-9. It is completely unlikely but they most certainly aren't eliminated.

 

you also have to take into account that Pitt/Cincy play each other, so they cant both lose out

Posted

Sportsclubstats (which is NOT based on mathematical elimination) says no playoffs even if the Bills win out.

 

http://www.sportsclu...st/Buffalo.html

 

Actually the zeros are numbers rounded down. Odds of finishing 5th are 0.0000627%. Odds of finishing 6th are 0.0000731%. Oddly enough, the highest odds are that we finish 7th. (53%)

 

PTR

Posted

Actually the zeros are numbers rounded down. Odds of finishing 5th are 0.0000627%. Odds of finishing 6th are 0.0000731%. Oddly enough, the highest odds are that we finish 7th. (53%)

 

PTR

Yeah and if you look at this page and hover over the furthest right circle (down at the bottom) it shows the Bills overall chance of making the playoffs as 0.00014%.

The Jests are 0.00012% (suck it Rex) and the fish are of course flat lined.

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/AFC/AFCEast/Buffalo_ChanceWillMakePlayoffs.html

Posted

Are you saying that you're envisioning the Bills in the playoffs? Or are you thinking of the teams that have better than Powerball odds? B-)

Unfortunately, yes. When we lost to the Colts, I thought it was over. Now...

 

Sick, huh? It's like that dork who always hits on the hottest women, thinking it'll happen someday.

Posted

 

 

According to the playoff machine..

 

If we win out, but 1 of Pittsburgh's 2 losses come again the Cowboys (NFC), they would be in the playoffs. Basically we need Pittsburgh to lose 2 games against AFC opponents, then we would have the tie breaker.

 

We need Cincinnati to lose 1 of their 2 games against the AFC (they play PIT and BAL). If they go 2-2, but both their losses come against NFC opponents (DAL and PHI), they would have the tiebreaker against us.

 

 

This is exactly what I am seeing. Cincy or pit will have 1 loss as they play each other. And cincy could quite easily lose to both pit and ravens. Both teams have to play dallas who are alot like the early season bills decent o no d. My fear is our season may officially end in 2 weeks against the hawks.

Posted

With either Cincinnati or Pittsburgh...if they go 4-0 against NFC and end up in second place tied for 9-7 with Buffalo...Buffalo will have better conference record.

 

With Cincinnati Buffalo would have a common game advantage if they are tied with the same conference record which is the same as they both go 3-1 against the NFC. with Pittsburgh they would have a tied common games record so it will come down to strength of victory.

 

As far as i can tell their will be NO SCENARIO where Buffalo can go into week 17 with control of their own fate.

 

An alternate what if universe.....

 

Had Buffalo, New York, and Miami all beat New England in their close games against the Pats the division would be all tied at 6-6.

Posted

Damn, just did that predictor thing with the Ravens losing out, but they must hold the tiebreaker in that scenario. And yes, I think it possible the Ravens lose out

 

Redskns

Broncos

giants

Bengals

Posted (edited)

There is always the chance based on the scenarios at hand. Currently the Bills are still in the hunt. You play to win, not the other way around.

 

Slim chances or not - It is why they play the games. Otherwise they'd hand the trophy to Princess Brady year after year.

 

Buffalo winning out takes Miami and the NYETS out of the picture. You see the Ravens Schedule above, - that looks like it could be tough. One of these 3 will take their division.

 

The Steelers

vs San Diego

@Dallas

vs Cincinnati

vs Cleveland

 

The Bungles

vs Dallas

@ Philadelphia

@ Pittsburgh

vs Baltimore

Edited by BillsFan-4-Ever
Posted (edited)

Winning out at this point for the Bills won't be easy, but it is not impossible either.

If they manage to do that, regardless if they end up in the playoffs or not, it will show everyone (including themselves) that the Bills have a sack and will be a good lead in to the offseason.

 

Is this a Bills team turning the corner, or simply more of the last 12 years. We will see.

Edited by CodeMonkey
Posted (edited)

If the Bills win out, however unlikely that scenario is by itself, it appears they'd have somewhere between a 25% and 50% chance of making the playoffs. Here is one such scenario for the sake of argument (there are, of course, several others):

 

1) Bills win out

 

2) Bengals lose to Cowboys and Ravens, beat Eagles and Steelers

 

3) Steelers lose to Charger and Bengals, beat Cowboys and Browns

 

Bills get the #6 seed if this happens. As is always the case, #1 is by far the least likely part of this scenario.

 

It seems to me that in order for the Bills to have a realistic chance even if they were to win out, they need losses this week from the Steelers vs SD and the Bengals vs. Dallas.

 

One other interesting note: If the Steelers beat the Bengals in week 16 and finish 9-7, the only way the Bills can make the playoffs is if the Steelers 2 losses come against the Chargers this week and the Browns in week 17. So it seems to me we have an easier path if the Bengals win that week 16 game vs. Pitt.

 

OK, back to reality haha

Edited by Reddy Freddy
Posted

http://espn.go.com/n...layoffs/machine

 

It's fun to get the Bills into the playoffs.

 

Here is the Bills pathway to the #5 playoff seed:

 

 

WEEK 14

BILLS over stl

DAL over cin

SD over pit

SF over mia

JAX over nyj

TEN over ind

 

WEEK 15

BILLS over sea

PHI over cin

JAX over mia

HOU over ind

DAL over pit

TEN over nyj

 

WEEK 16

BILLS over mia

KC over ind

SD over nyj

PIT/CIN is a wash

 

WEEK 17

BILLS over nyj

BAL over cin

CLE over pit

HOU over ind

NE over mia

 

PTR

Posted

Here is the Bills pathway to the #5 playoff seed:

 

 

WEEK 14

BILLS over stl

DAL over cin

SD over pit

SF over mia

JAX over nyj

TEN over ind

 

WEEK 15

BILLS over sea

PHI over cin

JAX over mia

HOU over ind

DAL over pit

TEN over nyj

 

WEEK 16

BILLS over mia

KC over ind

SD over nyj

PIT/CIN is a wash

 

WEEK 17

BILLS over nyj

BAL over cin

CLE over pit

HOU over ind

NE over mia

 

PTR

KC over Indy week 16 is the only game I think couldn't happen, but thanks for doing this. I have printed out this sheet and will root accordingly! :beer::thumbsup:

Posted

Let's see... we beat Kansas City, Cleveland, Arizona, Miami, and Jacksonville... even if we somehow win out, who would we have we beaten of import? Seattle? Not exactly a playoff caliber season. If we sneak in and get tossed out in the first round, what have we proven? Besides people would start pretending we're good, which is laughable.

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