NoSaint Posted November 30, 2012 Posted November 30, 2012 Making the playoffs 5 years in a row, has a 0.27%, which is almost the same odds. And Im sure that has been done numerous times. Colts, Eagles, Ravens and Seahawks have done it since 2000. Pats will reach their 4th in row for the second time in 9 years. A one year miss in between when Brady was hurt, and they still got an 11-5 record, which is a playoff spot any other year. The Bills is a poorly run franchise. But they probably would have made the playoffs by now, if the where in any other division besides AFC East and AFC North. plus statistically, its not the same as flipping a coin. good teams go repeatedly, bad teams miss repeatedly. we were more often bad than good. unless you believe everyone walks into every season with an equal chance and its just dumb luck the math is off.
All_Pro_Bills Posted November 30, 2012 Posted November 30, 2012 plus statistically, its not the same as flipping a coin. good teams go repeatedly, bad teams miss repeatedly. we were more often bad than good. unless you believe everyone walks into every season with an equal chance and its just dumb luck the math is off. True, a random coin toss has a 50/50 chance of being heads or tails but someone that has developed, through skill and practice, a high level of proficiency at coin tossing can probably make the coin come out either heads or tails as they desire most of the time. The impact of several fundamental business and football flaws is the reason why the Bills miss the playoffs vs. any random chance. Still you've got to be really good at being bad to pull off swinging and missing for 13 seasons.
Sisyphean Bills Posted November 30, 2012 Posted November 30, 2012 Say nothing of the schedule, which is cyclic for the most part, but also has year-to-year games that match bad teams against bad teams and good teams against good teams from the previous year's result. The deck is actually stacked in their favor to get better!
NoSaint Posted December 1, 2012 Posted December 1, 2012 True, a random coin toss has a 50/50 chance of being heads or tails but someone that has developed, through skill and practice, a high level of proficiency at coin tossing can probably make the coin come out either heads or tails as they desire most of the time. The impact of several fundamental business and football flaws is the reason why the Bills miss the playoffs vs. any random chance. Still you've got to be really good at being bad to pull off swinging and missing for 13 seasons. Ill agree its an epic fail - just disagreeing with the mathematics behind the posts. If I try to race cj spiller my odds are not 50-50 to win. He's much faster. When this team walks into a season with JP losman, Trent Edwards or Ryan fitz leading an all around uninspiring roster, our playoff odds are much higher than 10/16 to miss it, likewise if say a Marv levy is the one trying to build the roster. If in reality our odds of missing are closer to 14/16 any given year given our front office ability - it's still an epic failure but the math isn't the same.
Sisyphean Bills Posted December 1, 2012 Posted December 1, 2012 Ill agree its an epic fail - just disagreeing with the mathematics behind the posts. If I try to race cj spiller my odds are not 50-50 to win. He's much faster. When this team walks into a season with JP losman, Trent Edwards or Ryan fitz leading an all around uninspiring roster, our playoff odds are much higher than 10/16 to miss it, likewise if say a Marv levy is the one trying to build the roster. If in reality our odds of missing are closer to 14/16 any given year given our front office ability - it's still an epic failure but the math isn't the same. That's the point though. The Bills aren't intrinsically handicapped. They have chosen to be so. The math isn't biased with excuses.
NoSaint Posted December 1, 2012 Posted December 1, 2012 That's the point though. The Bills aren't intrinsically handicapped. They have chosen to be so. The math isn't biased with excuses. If you trace it back to a poor owner, that's not true. Location could be a pro/con also. It's also not true that each season is a statistically independent event - I flip heads and its still 50-50 the next flip. I go 3-13 and field an awful team, -'and struggle to get a new qb or coach and it's not 6/16 odds the next year. Coins aren't inherently streaky in their results, football teams are. Again, I'm just saying the equation would be written differently. The resulting disappointment is the same regardless.
Bills Fan888 Posted December 1, 2012 Posted December 1, 2012 shouldn't it be the probability of making the playoffs? As far as missing goes it's 100% didn't the Cardinals miss the playoffs for over 50 years? Arizona didn't win a postseason game for 50 years and didn't make the playoffs for 25, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NFL_franchise_post-season_droughts#Historical_Team_Droughts
papazoid Posted December 1, 2012 Posted December 1, 2012 .22% That's right there's a decimal point in there. Let me bold it in case you missed it: .22% In other words, a 1 in 451 chance of that happening......meaning if a team played 451 seasons they should experience a playoff drought like we have precisely once. This stat tells you everything you need to know about what the Bills fans have had to endure these last 13 years. It's not just bad luck, there is something seriously wrong with this franchise, and it's an absolute embarrassment. I'm sure Ralph's not, but if this was an entity I owned, I'd be utterly embarrassed. A couple of more seasons with no playoffs and we'll be getting into powerball odds territory. Total and absolute ineptitude. SO YOUR SAYING OUR FUTURE LOOKS BRIGHT ?
Sisyphean Bills Posted December 1, 2012 Posted December 1, 2012 If you trace it back to a poor owner, that's not true. Location could be a pro/con also. It's also not true that each season is a statistically independent event - I flip heads and its still 50-50 the next flip. I go 3-13 and field an awful team, -'and struggle to get a new qb or coach and it's not 6/16 odds the next year. Coins aren't inherently streaky in their results, football teams are. Again, I'm just saying the equation would be written differently. The resulting disappointment is the same regardless. I've never been a big fan of the "Woe is Buffalo" mentality. It's inherently defeatist and smacks of self-loathing. The weather in Green Bay sucks. Green Bay is smaller than Buffalo. It's not busting at the seams with billionaires willing to shuck out briefcases full of money for skyboxes. Yet, Green Bay is known as "Titletown" and they continue to compete and win championships. 50+ years of suckish ownership has done damage.
3rdand12 Posted December 1, 2012 Posted December 1, 2012 It is statistically harder to suck this bad for this long than to have an occasional good season. I've done the math... it's really rather impressive . or, astounding might be the better word . I've never been a big fan of the "Woe is Buffalo" mentality. It's inherently defeatist and smacks of self-loathing. ..... 50+ years of suckish ownership has done damage. Go Bills !
Max997 Posted December 1, 2012 Posted December 1, 2012 (edited) There are a lot of reasons why this franchise is in the state it is but it's mainly bc of simply hiring the wrong people, the dreaded cash to cap crap and horrible drafting Chan is proving to be a worse head coach then Jauron which amazes me. If Buddy really believes the Bills can win with him and Fitz then he should be canned too Edited December 1, 2012 by Max997
wonderbread Posted December 1, 2012 Posted December 1, 2012 So you're saying there is a chance? timely and appropriate. I fell like Chan is our Lloyd and Nix is our Harry.
benderbender Posted December 1, 2012 Posted December 1, 2012 I'm sure Ralph's not, but if this was an entity I owned, I'd be utterly embarrassed. A couple of more seasons with no playoffs and we'll be getting into powerball odds territory. That sentiment is shared by many including myself.
Marv's Neighbor Posted December 1, 2012 Posted December 1, 2012 IF the Mayan's are right and IF BUF is somehow spared, while everyone else is not...WE'RE IN!
Buffalo Barbarian Posted December 1, 2012 Posted December 1, 2012 Arizona didn't win a postseason game for 50 years and didn't make the playoffs for 25, http://en.wikipedia....l_Team_Droughts Well we are doing way better than them then
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