RGIII deal in retrospect

[Koufax]

I love RGIII, and the thing that really makes him special is his accuracy. He is at 67.5% completion right now, while Newton was 60% as a rookie, Michael Vick didn't make it past 56% in his first seven years, Luck is at 57%, Peyton Manning didn't get above 62% in his first four years.

 

Obviously scheme, circumstance, and sample size matter, but his completion percentage is a pretty good reflection of his great throwing accuracy and decision making.

 

However on the Bills making the trade, we have to hold off to see if the ransom they gave up will make clear sense. RG3 isn't going to the playoffs this year, so the upcoming two #1s the Rams are getting could be higher than expected.

 

Clearly not an apples to apples comparison, but since the Skins gave up the current 1st and 2nd, plus two more 1sts, that is abstractly the equivalent of Gilmore, Glenn, Dareus, and Spiller. Now the Skins had a much lower 1st and 2nd pick this year, and looking back at our #3 and #9 isn't quite the same as looking forward to 2013 and 2014, and maybe we would have given up less moving from 11 to 2 insead of 26 to 2. But those are the four names that represent what the Bills drafted with three 1s and a 2.

 

I know it is a QB league and we need to get our first franchise QB since Kelly pretty soon, but I don't think the upgrade from Fitz to RG3 is worth losing Gilmore, Glenn, Dareus, and Spiller. I would be happier taking what is available to us at our #1, or even the Brees/Dalton type in the 2nd. RG3 might work out, but that is a lot of big picks, and that creates a talent drain on your team for years to come.

[Jim in Anchorage]

I have read on here many times it takes 2-3 years to grade a draft and I agree. What I find amusing is many RG fans here are the same ones who put Cam on a pedestal last year and now are saying no no this is no flash in the pan like Newton! he's the real deal!

Did we not have this same exact thread last year for Cam newton?

 

Yes.

[RuntheDamnBall]

I love RGIII, and the thing that really makes him special is his accuracy. He is at 67.5% completion right now, while Newton was 60% as a rookie, Michael Vick didn't make it past 56% in his first seven years, Luck is at 57%, Peyton Manning didn't get above 62% in his first four years.

 

Obviously scheme, circumstance, and sample size matter, but his completion percentage is a pretty good reflection of his great throwing accuracy and decision making.

 

However on the Bills making the trade, we have to hold off to see if the ransom they gave up will make clear sense. RG3 isn't going to the playoffs this year, so the upcoming two #1s the Rams are getting could be higher than expected.

 

Clearly not an apples to apples comparison, but since the Skins gave up the current 1st and 2nd, plus two more 1sts, that is abstractly the equivalent of Gilmore, Glenn, Dareus, and Spiller. Now the Skins had a much lower 1st and 2nd pick this year, and looking back at our #3 and #9 isn't quite the same as looking forward to 2013 and 2014, and maybe we would have given up less moving from 11 to 2 insead of 26 to 2. But those are the four names that represent what the Bills drafted with three 1s and a 2.

 

I know it is a QB league and we need to get our first franchise QB since Kelly pretty soon, but I don't think the upgrade from Fitz to RG3 is worth losing Gilmore, Glenn, Dareus, and Spiller. I would be happier taking what is available to us at our #1, or even the Brees/Dalton type in the 2nd. RG3 might work out, but that is a lot of big picks, and that creates a talent drain on your team for years to come.

I think both sides can be right. Clearly the Bills' talent at CB and LT was not good enough to merit passing up those picks and then some for RGIII. But I think it can be pretty well argued that at this point, the Bills could afford to cough up some premier picks, bite the bullet and keep guys like Levitre and Byrd and Wood from leaving (instead of drafting their replacements - a likely scenario with at least some of these picks), and get their QB if they think he is there in this draft. Defense is a problem, but more dynamic QB play with a stronger deep game and better mid-range accuracy could put them over the top.

 

If there is a way to pry the pick that nets Geno Smith, Barkley or Jones if they really believe in him (not sure I do), or one of the other top-tier guys, now is the time. If there is a guy even close to RGIII's quality of makeup and talent, they have to pay the price to acquire him. Even if Fitz is the projected starter in 2013, they have to invest wisely in the future at QB. We know Fitz has a ceiling - it likely falls short of the playoffs. Regardless, if they aren't sending every scout they have to get multiple looks at the college QBs in question, they are a failure as a scouting dept. I'm hoping that is not the case.

[dave mcbride]

 

 

In asserting that TD clearly didn't try hard enough, your logic is flawed. It's awfully easy to say that now, but judging by what transpired in that draft, one could reasonably surmise the following:

 

- Donahoe viewed Big Ben as a starting caliber QB and worthy of a trade up.

- Donahoe viewed JP Losman as a starting caliber QB and one worthy of a first round pick.

- Donahoe didn't see an enormous talent gap between Big Ben and JP Losman. If he had, then he may have offered more to move up and get Big Ben.

- When he couldn't consumate a trade for Big Ben with a team picking before Pittsburgh, he had a backup plan, which was to go after JP at the end of the first round.

 

To say TD didn't "try hard enough" is simply not true. After all, the man gave up a 2004 2nd, 2004 5th and 2005 1st round pick to get a QB. Clearly, he tried hard to fill the QB void. The bottom line for this moribund franchise is this: talent evaluation is suspect. Had the Bills scouting staff realized that Losman was not an NFL-caliber staring QB, that draft would have turned out a lot differently. But alas, the front office was and continues to be among the worst in the NFL. With that being said, I'd take Donahoe back today, any day of the week. Contrary to what you allege, Donahoe "tried" to bring a winner to Buffalo. The same certainly cannot be said about those who have since succeeded him.

 

My very, very strong recollection is that Donohoe loved Roethlisberger and really wanted to move up. That instinct was and is admirable. My point all along (see my post on page 3) is that when you ID someone as a franchise/elite QB - which the Bills apparently did regarding Roethlisberger -- then you move heaven and earth to get him. Donohoe was smart enough to knowthat he still needed a QB, so hegambled with Losman. I don't fault him for that - at least he tried, and by trying indicated that he knew the centrality of the qb position. That said, he could and should have done more to get Roethlisberger. And I bet you that if you asked him today, he'd say the same. I actually didn't mean to single out or condemn Donohoe. After all, his successors stupidly passed on both Cutler and Flacco.

[Maury Ballstein]

Really dude? reread what I said. WTF!

 

you said he relies on luck and chucks it up there? "wouldn't call him deep ball accurate" ??

 

what am I rereading? guess earlier in the thread you stated RG3 is awesome.

 

if you havent seen him much let me vouch for you when it comes to RG3......him and Luck will run this league in a few years.....not much "luck" involved with these 2 IMO.

[Bronc24]

 

 

you said he relies on luck and chucks it up there? "wouldn't call him deep ball accurate" ??

 

what am I rereading? guess earlier in the thread you stated RG3 is awesome.

 

if you havent seen him much let me vouch for you when it comes to RG3......him and Luck will run this league in a few years.....not much "luck" involved with these 2 IMO.

 

This.

[JohnC]

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yep. Unfortunately, he felt from his scouting input that JP Losman was just as good as Manning, Roethlisberger, and Rivers. So, rather than all in for Big Ben, he went with another option that was "just as good." In hindsight, it was a compounded franchise crippling decision.

 

I'm not going to criticize a staff for trying to upgrade a position, especially the most important position in the game. If a particular qb prospect such as Losman doesn't work out there is no reason why it should cripple the franchise. Does it set the franchise back? Somewhat. But so what? You move on and when it is appropriate you try again to address the issue. The notion that making a mistake drafting a qb should make you gun shy at a later time is wrong. All teams making high draft picks, no matter what the position is, make mistakes. Sometimes a much lower draft pick outperforms the more highly rated and celebrated higher pick.

Edited November 25, 2012 by JohnC

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I love RGIII, and the thing that really makes him special is his accuracy. He is at 67.5% completion right now, while Newton was 60% as a rookie, Michael Vick didn't make it past 56% in his first seven years, Luck is at 57%, Peyton Manning didn't get above 62% in his first four years.

 

Obviously scheme, circumstance, and sample size matter, but his completion percentage is a pretty good reflection of his great throwing accuracy and decision making.

 

However on the Bills making the trade, we have to hold off to see if the ransom they gave up will make clear sense. RG3 isn't going to the playoffs this year, so the upcoming two #1s the Rams are getting could be higher than expected.

 

Clearly not an apples to apples comparison, but since the Skins gave up the current 1st and 2nd, plus two more 1sts, that is abstractly the equivalent of Gilmore, Glenn, Dareus, and Spiller. Now the Skins had a much lower 1st and 2nd pick this year, and looking back at our #3 and #9 isn't quite the same as looking forward to 2013 and 2014, and maybe we would have given up less moving from 11 to 2 insead of 26 to 2. But those are the four names that represent what the Bills drafted with three 1s and a 2.

 

I know it is a QB league and we need to get our first franchise QB since Kelly pretty soon, but I don't think the upgrade from Fitz to RG3 is worth losing Gilmore, Glenn, Dareus, and Spiller. I would be happier taking what is available to us at our #1, or even the Brees/Dalton type in the 2nd. RG3 might work out, but that is a lot of big picks, and that creates a talent drain on your team for years to come.

 

Great post.

 

When you consider also that the Bills would have had to give up more than the Redskins did, you come to a point where the debate on both sides is valid because you're trying to find the balance of many different values.

[RuntheDamnBall]

I'm not going to criticize a staff for trying to upgrade a position, especially the most important position in the game. If a particular qb prospect such as Losman doesn't work out there is no reason why it should cripple the franchise. Does it set the franchise back? Somewhat. But so what? You move on and when it is appropriate you try again to address the issue. The notion that making a mistake drafting a qb should make you gun shy at a later time is wrong. All teams making high draft picks, no matter what the position is, make mistakes. Sometimes a much lower draft pick outperforms the more highly rated and celebrated higher pick.

It's different today with a rookie salary cap. Just sayin'. Picks are more coveted and actually become a bit easier to move, yet more valuable because they become a vehicle to acquire premier low-cost talent.

 

That is to say, in the past if the Bills would have traded many picks to move up, they would have also been trading into a pretty pricey salary range. This is no longer really the case, at least not commensurate with real value.

[fansince88]

Oblivious? Look at my history in the spring. I was all over making a move for him. And I "crowned his ass" before he played a down in the NFL, oh all knowing one.

so you have no problem changing your name to Im in love with RGIII? Cant argue against you at all and may even agree but prove you really mean what you say by putting that in your quote or something like that.

[JohnC]

 

It's different today with a rookie salary cap. Just sayin'. Picks are more coveted and actually become a bit easier to move, yet more valuable because they become a vehicle to acquire premier low-cost talent.

 

That is to say, in the past if the Bills would have traded many picks to move up, they would have also been trading into a pretty pricey salary range. This is no longer really the case, at least not commensurate with real value.

 

If you have a conviction on a player, especially the qb position, then it is reasonable to act on that conviction. The Giants gave up a lot in draft picks (prior to the new CBA) to essentially move up a few spots to draft Eli Manning. It resulted in two SB trophies and filled their most important position for a decade or so.

 

Not all deals work out. Failing in one deal shouldn't freeze the organization from pursuing other calculated deals. I'm not suggesting that any organization wildly gamble to fill a critical need. The GM and his staff get paid to do their due diligence in considering major transactions.

 

For a very long time, at least a generation, the Bills have not had an impactful franchise qb. Nix bypassed Dalton and Kaepernick when they were available in the second round a couple of years ago. Dalton is the starting qb for the Bengals and Kaepernick has shown some promising potential. Are they the answer? I can't say for sure. What I can say for sure is that they are better and have more potential than what we presently have.

 

Under the cap system you can absorb the loss of some draft picks with mid-range free agent pickups. I'm not recommending that as a long term strategy but it is an option to be used if there is a player available that you believe will be a difference maker.

 

It is "almost" universally true that what distinguishes good teams from bad teams is the caliber of starting qb. Paying a rich price to make that type of impactful deal is well worth it, especially when you let opportunities go by for selecting another CB in the second round.

Edited November 25, 2012 by JohnC

[Sisyphean Bills]

I'm not going to criticize a staff for trying to upgrade a position, especially the most important position in the game. If a particular qb prospect such as Losman doesn't work out there is no reason why it should cripple the franchise. Does it set the franchise back? Somewhat. But so what? You move on and when it is appropriate you try again to address the issue. The notion that making a mistake drafting a qb should make you gun shy at a later time is wrong. All teams making high draft picks, no matter what the position is, make mistakes. Sometimes a much lower draft pick outperforms the more highly rated and celebrated higher pick.

 

I don't fault them for trying to get a QB. That isn't the point at all, since I think they need to try again.

 

The issue was that they were incorrect in their evaluation of Losman and their development of Losman was poorly executed. It took them five years of vacillating to decide Losman wasn't the option, helped by Trent Edwards looking somewhat better, before they cut the string with Losman. It only took 3 years and a couple games to do the same with Edwards, by comparison. And, since Losman, the front office has invested 0 top draft picks at the most important position on the field. They've reinvested in a guy that never beat out Trent Edwards for the job, brought in a 7th rounder, junk off the scrap heap, a disinterested Vince Young, and traded for a guy that the coach will never put on the field. Of course, we don't know that the Bills are gun shy, but they certainly aren't making any big moves and this next draft will be nearly a decade since JP was taken. (The Bills seem more interested in buoying Fitzpatrick's confidence than anything.)

[JohnC]

 

 

I don't fault them for trying to get a QB. That isn't the point at all, since I think they need to try again.

 

The issue was that they were incorrect in their evaluation of Losman and their development of Losman was poorly executed. It took them five years of vacillating to decide Losman wasn't the option, helped by Trent Edwards looking somewhat better, before they cut the string with Losman. It only took 3 years and a couple games to do the same with Edwards, by comparison. And, since Losman, the front office has invested 0 top draft picks at the most important position on the field. They've reinvested in a guy that never beat out Trent Edwards for the job, brought in a 7th rounder, junk off the scrap heap, a disinterested Vince Young, and traded for a guy that the coach will never put on the field. Of course, we don't know that the Bills are gun shy, but they certainly aren't making any big moves and this next draft will be nearly a decade since JP was taken. (The Bills seem more interested in buoying Fitzpatrick's confidence than anything.)

 

What your post describes is organizational ineptitude. What do you expect when a buffoon owner is making the big hires?

 

Buddy Nix made a decision that Fitz was an adequate enough qb to buy him some time in order to upgrade the roster and then address the most critical position. In my view he and Chan grossly miscalculated. Were Dalton and Kaepernick good enough prospects for him? Evidently not. He took a CB, Aaron Williams, when both of these qbs were available in the draft. Whether they would be long term solutions' I can't say for sure. What I can say for sure is that both of them are going to be better than who we have currently taking the snaps from center.

 

I look at what Harbaugh has done in a very short time in SF. It is amazing how a high quality HC and staff can make in a difference in such a short period of time. He thought enough of Kaepernick to take him in the second round after we made our second round selection of a CB. So far he has demonstrated more "ability" than our current qb has. Fitz has been in the league for seven years or so. He is what he is: mediocre. Both Nix and Gailey felt that he was adequate enough. What does that say about their judgment?

 

As I have often stated the problem with the Bills is not about the team as it is about the organization!

Edited November 25, 2012 by JohnC

[Trader]

Are you saying you wouldn't take either of those QBs?

 

I would take RG111, Cam Newton or Russell Wilson for the Bills. I would also take the Back up QB in Washington that came out last year. Next year I want the Bills to draft Landry Jones. Right now he looks like the best Pro style QB to come out this year. I will reserve my right to change my mind after the combine but right now Landry Jones is my guy.

[Sisyphean Bills]

What your post describes is organizational ineptitude. What do you expect when a buffoon owner is making the big hires?

 

Buddy Nix made a decision that Fitz was an adequate enough qb to buy him some time in order to upgrade the roster and then address the most critical position. In my view he and Chan grossly miscalculated. Were Dalton and Kaepernick good enough prospects for him? Evidently not. He took a CB, Aaron Williams, when both of these qbs were available in the draft. Whether they would be long term solutions' I can't say for sure. What I can say for sure is that both of them are going to be better than who we have currently taking the snaps from center.

 

I look at what Harbaugh has done in a very short time in SF. It is amazing how a high quality HC and staff can make in a difference in such a short period of time. He thought enough of Kaepernick to take him in the second round after we made our second round selection of a CB. So far he has demonstrated more "ability" than our current qb has. Fitz has been in the league for seven years or so. He is what he is: mediocre. Both Nix and Gailey felt that he was adequate enough. What does that say about their judgment?

 

As I have often stated the problem with the Bills is not about the team as it is about the organization!

 

Not sure who you are arguing with as I've made all these points myself.

 

But back to the original argument, there is not fault in trying to upgrade the most important position in the game. The faults were the scouting and choice itself. Unless you believe JP Losman is a Super Bowl winning caliber QB, that point is indisputable. The difference being not that Donahoe did not try, but that he and Modrak !@#$ed it up royally like many of their 1st round picks. Furthermore, the pick has crippled the franchise unless you believe the Bills have continued to make bold moves to address the lack of talent at the QB position. Somehow, drafting Edwards in the 3rd round and picking up Fitzpatrick and Thigpen, both of whom were next to being at the end of their NFL careers, does not seem like "trying to improve" all that hard. It's a nice soundbite to say that there was nothing that could be done and nobody they really liked or wanted to spend time on to develop, but when one really looks at it objectively it is nothing but a loser's excuse. Dalton, Kaepernick, etc. ... an organization doesn't miss the playoffs for 13 straight seasons in a league built for parity because they are well run.

[JohnC]

 

 

Not sure who you are arguing with as I've made all these points myself.

 

I'm not disagreeing with you. The arguments that are made against the organization that Ralph Wilson built are always the same. What can be said that hasn't been said before? You don't have to go to the circus to see clowns at work. The main clown resides in Michigan and his subordinate clowns work at OBD.

 

 

But back to the original argument, there is not fault in trying to upgrade the most important position in the game. The faults were the scouting and choice itself. Unless you believe JP Losman is a Super Bowl winning caliber QB, that point is indisputable. The difference being not that Donahoe did not try, but that he and Modrak !@#$ed it up royally like many of their 1st round picks. Furthermore, the pick has crippled the franchise unless you believe the Bills have continued to make bold moves to address the lack of talent at the QB position. Somehow, drafting Edwards in the 3rd round and picking up Fitzpatrick and Thigpen, both of whom were next to being at the end of their NFL careers, does not seem like "trying to improve" all that hard. It's a nice soundbite to say that there was nothing that could be done and nobody they really liked or wanted to spend time on to develop, but when one really looks at it objectively it is nothing but a loser's excuse. Dalton, Kaepernick, etc. ... an organization doesn't miss the playoffs for 13 straight seasons in a league built for parity because they are well run.

 

In all walks of life and in all fields of endeavor there is a segment of the population that is simply dumb. How does one climb out of the man made mountain of manure of stupidity when the people who created the mess are the same people who are trying to correct the damage they have already done. It's the circle of futility.

 

If you watched the Bills/Indy game and witnessed Fitz at work and then realize there are no other reasonable options behind him you have to conclude that the brain trust for this hollow organization is brain dead. It's simply embarrassing.

Edited November 25, 2012 by JohnC

[Sisyphean Bills]

I'm not disagreeing with you. The arguments that are made against the organization that Ralph Wilson built are always the same. What can be said that hasn't been said before? You don't have to go to the circus to see clowns at work. The main clown resides in Michigan and his subordinate clowns work at OBD.

 

 

 

 

In all walks of life and in all fields of endeavor there is a segment of the population that are simply dumb. How does one climb out of the man made mountain of manure of stupidity when the people who created the mess are the same people who are trying to correct the damage they have already done. It's the circle of futility.

 

If you watched the Bills/Indy game and witnessed Fitz at work and then realize there are no other reasonable options behind him you have to conclude that the brain trust for this hollow organization is brain dead. It's simply embarrassing.

 

Yep. Something is rotten in Denmark. No dispute.

[RuntheDamnBall]

I think the fact that the bills have Aaron Williams and not Kaepernick or Dalton is great enough an indictment. But Who's to say they would get the coaching they need in buffalo?

[Mr. WEO]

 

 

I know it is a QB league and we need to get our first franchise QB since Kelly pretty soon, but I don't think the upgrade from Fitz to RG3 is worth losing Gilmore, Glenn, Dareus, and Spiller. I would be happier taking what is available to us at our #1, or even the Brees/Dalton type in the 2nd. RG3 might work out, but that is a lot of big picks, and that creates a talent drain on your team for years to come.

 

Actually, when you put it like that, it makes it easier for me to say the Skins made the right move.

 

Other than Spiller (and he is borderline for this argument), not one of the those Buff picks have won an extra game for us, but there is no question that the Skins are winning more games as a direct result of the RG3 pick. If we had RG3 instead of Fitz, and we had no Spiller/Dareus/Gilmore/Glenn I have no doubt we would have won more games to this point, with the rest of the guys we have on the roster.

 

I don't know how anyone can reason otherwise.

[Juror#8]

It's hilarious that everyone assumes I'm defending Fitz. I'm not. I'm pointing out the blind worship people have for touted players. RGIII can do no wrong, even when he does, because he's RGIII. We crown players before they even finish a full season. Heck we crown them after one play! Marauder is all agog over RGIII today but is oblivious to any bad games he had.

 

PTR

 

I don't need to see a full season. RGIII (less than 1 season) AND Cam Newton (1 1/2 seasons) have shown more promise than Fitzpatrick has shown in 8 years. Has Fitzpatrick ever had a year that could even be considered on par with RGIII's 13 games?

 

RGIII - 67% Completion; 2900 yards, 18 TDs 4 INT, 104.2 QB Rating

 

Fitzpatrick - 62% Completion; 2700 yards, 21 TDs 13 INTs, 85.8 QB Rating

 

Heck, for the fun of it:

 

Cam Newton - 58% Completion percentage; 3200 yards, 16 TD 10 INT 88.0 QB rating

 

And for those who reflexively compare Griffin III with Newton just because they're both....well....we'll just say "athletic," you're being ridiculous. Though Newton is better than what we have, he couldn't carry RGIIIs jockstrap. Let's recall Newton's rookie campaign:

 

60% Completion; 4051 yards, 21 TDs, 17 INTs, 84.5 Rating

 

Cam Newton is on pace to match his own performance from last year.

 

RGIII already bested it twice over.

 

But then again, many of us here were singing RGIIIs praises and saying he'd be better than Luck over a year ago, when others were calling him a marginal first round talent at best (or the idiotic "Andre Ware redux" comments):

 

http://forums.twobil...bout-the-draft/

 

http://forums.twobil...rd/page__st__20

Edited December 11, 2012 by Juror#8