Failed Top Draft Picks in the Polian Era

[machine gun kelly]

There is no comparison in that Polian was the most important part of this organization including players, coaches, front office. I state this as he was the architect of three winning franchises in Buffalo, started the process of Carolina, and Indy. He had the vision to create winning teams and hit more than he missed. I'm still a fan of Nix and you can't pin 2010 on him as he did not make all of those calls. He was just comiong into the organization. Now on 2011, we'll see, and what I look also to is Nix picking up people like chandler, and Barnett. He is good for this organization in building from within with a line in Urbik, Rinehart, Hairston, Glenn, and Darius, and so on. We can all agree a miss on QB with missing on Dalton, most likely Wilson.

 

The next two years will say alot. Does he pick up value in special players, use free agancy effectively, and focus if possible on QB, WR, TE, LB, and CB? That is a tall order and will take two years of drafts and FA, to create a real competitor. I'm a much bigger fan of Whaley, and Nix, vs. Gailey and Wanny. I'll give it to anyone in a miss at coaching. Wouldn't you rather have a guy like Nolan as our HC from Atlanta. The thought of Gruden, Cowher, is a pipedream. The real problem is of course the instability at ownership. Ralph passes, we get our lease worked out, keep Toronto as the regionalization project, and one of these Billionaires in NY to keep the team here, and things will continue to progress positively for Buffalo.

 

I just don't have confidence Ralph will make the right choices as hx dictates he will blow it up again every three years until he passes. I'm etenally grateful Mr. Wilson brought us a team, and kept us here, but the last 12 years goes on him. That is our real enemy!

[thewildrabbit]

Polian was also very instrumental in talking QB Jim Kelly into signing and playing for the buffalo Bills, something he wasn't certain he wanted to do after the USFL folded. Polian also got center Kent Hull from the USFL

 

Polian wasn't the GM at the time Bruce Smith was drafted but he was one of the pair that got him signed. Because of that signing owner RW hired him to full time GM.

I notice that you conveniently left out the 1985 draft, which netted us one of the greatest NFL players of all time (Bruce Smith) and a should-be Hall of Famer (Andre Reed).

 

Not to mention the numerous late-round successes that aren't listed.

Not to mention (as someone else also pointed out), the pick that was traded for Cornelius Bennett.

 

Your thread fails to make a point. Even with all Polian's "misses" I still see numerous hits. VERY big hits. Numerous Hall of Fame-type hits.

Where are the big hits for Buddy? Heck, where are the average hits for Buddy? He's struggled to even get us solid starters in the draft.

 

Most of the 2010 draft has been a complete loss. The lone exception being CJ Spiller.

The 2011 draft got us Dareus, who I still think has potential - and a couple low-end starters (A.Williams, Sheppard, Hairston). Almost every one of those players has digressed in their second year.

 

To compare the two regimes is insane.

Polian took over the WORST team in football. In 3 years, they were 12-4 and in the AFC Championship game. In 5 years, they were in the Super Bowl.

Nix took over a perennial 6 or 7 win team. In 3 years, the team appears to have made no progress.

Oh, the Bills have made progress, just backwards progress. Nix made them worse then when he took over. 7-9 beats 6-10 all day long

 

The biggest difference between rosters is that Nix only changed 8 no name non starters from 09 to 2010. All the rest were from Levy / Jauron. Then look at the difference between the 85 roster and the 86 roster, and what Polian managed to do in just one year.

 

QB-changed

RB-changed

FB -changed

WR- changed

WR-Andre Reed

TE-changed

LT-Ken Jones-gone in 87

LG-Jim Richter

C-changed

RG-changed

RT-Joe Devlin

 

Defense

De-changed

NT-Fred Smerlas

DE-Changed

LOLB-changed

LILB-Eugene Marve-gone in 87

RILB-changed

ROLB-Lucious Sanford-gone in 87

LCB-changed

RCB-Charles Romes-gone in 87

SS-Steve Freeman-gone in 87

FS-changed

 

That first year only 9 of 22 starters remained with the bills. Then in 87 only 4 starters remained from the previous regime. So you could easiley state that Polian rebuilt the entire starting roster in his 1st two years. Only Jim Richter / Andre Reed stayed thru the SB runs, 2 players.

 

Another huge point someone else already brought up was the draft position after 87 in which Buffalo was drafting very late year after year

 

84, 2-14 last place

85, 2-14 last place

86, 4-12 4th in division- Bill Polian hired as GM- Fired Hank Bullough after 9 games. Hired Marv levy

87,7-8 3rd in division-8th- at Halloween, Polian traded RB Greg Bell, two #1's and a #2 to the Rams and got Cornelius Bennett. wow, just wow. The Bills got their rush LBer

88,12-4-won division- no first round pick, in 2nd round picked 14th, and still picked up HoF RB Thurman Thomas. AFC championship game

89, 9-7 won division no 1st or 2nd round pick, in 3rd round picked 26th, and still Picked up speedy WR Don Beebe. playoffs

90,13-3 won division-SB

91, 13-3 won division-SB

92-11-5 won division-SB

93-12-4 won division-SB

 

After Polian's 2nd year you knew the Bills were getting drastically better, and by his 3rd year they won the division at 12-4, and went to the AFC Championship game against Cincy. In Polian's 3rd year that 88 season the Bills started 11-1 and set an NFL record for earliest division win Sun Nov 20th against the Jets in OT 9-6. I remember that year as the Bills beat the Dolphins 27-0 on Nov 29th. The Dolphins only crossed the 50 yard line once all game in the 4th QTR after they had benched Dan Marino and Don Strock promptly threw an INT in the end zone

 

Like this poster stated, its just nuts to even try and compare Nix to Polian....what is Nix in his 3rd year at 4-6. -69 point differential. Still no franchise QB

Edited November 23, 2012 by FeartheLosing

[CardinalScotts]

I notice that you conveniently left out the 1985 draft, which netted us one of the greatest NFL players of all time (Bruce Smith) and a should-be Hall of Famer (Andre Reed).

 

Not to mention the numerous late-round successes that aren't listed.

Not to mention (as someone else also pointed out), the pick that was traded for Cornelius Bennett.

 

Your thread fails to make a point. Even with all Polian's "misses" I still see numerous hits. VERY big hits. Numerous Hall of Fame-type hits.

Where are the big hits for Buddy? Heck, where are the average hits for Buddy? He's struggled to even get us solid starters in the draft.

 

Most of the 2010 draft has been a complete loss. The lone exception being CJ Spiller.

The 2011 draft got us Dareus, who I still think has potential - and a couple low-end starters (A.Williams, Sheppard, Hairston). Almost every one of those players has digressed in their second year.

 

To compare the two regimes is insane.

Polian took over the WORST team in football. In 3 years, they were 12-4 and in the AFC Championship game. In 5 years, they were in the Super Bowl.

Nix took over a perennial 6 or 7 win team. In 3 years, the team appears to have made no progress.

 

the biggest factor the AFC east sucked back then prior to the Bills Dominating for a while....

Edited November 22, 2012 by CardinalScotts

[Bookie Man]

Whoa, it's funny to see fullbacks go that high. Mueller and Carwell Gardner. I guess that is back when they were relevant.

[Steve O]

Polian deserves all the credit for the Bennett trade...Marv fought with him until late in the night over that one. He also deserves credit for finding value the next two years with his first picks which were second round in 88 and third round n 89. (Given that we were drafting late in those round it was more like third and fourth rounds)

The Patton pick was the first of a brutal 5 year span of second round draft picks (including 3 misses in the second round 94 draft...for those who are wondering why we had 3 second round picks that year back then the compensation for lost free agents was a lot more than it is now)...albeit Polian was not involved in any but the Patton pick

 

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/teams/bills

[ThrowingFitz]

After reading this thread I'm convinced that Polian was a much better GM than Nix.

 

So let me make a few points:

 

31% of first round draft picks will go on to make a pro bowl.

 

17% go on to make multiple pro bowls.

 

Nix doesn’t have 1 pro bowl selection since becoming GM in Buffalo.

 

Now don't get me wrong I like Nix. His draft strategy is paying off. I think coaching is what is really holding this team back. But its also his job to keep these people in check.

[Drifter]

the biggest factor the AFC east sucked back then prior to the Bills Dominating for a while....

 

That was true Pat, Jets, and colts Sucked. Recently the Patriots have been benefiting the same way. I'm sure they circle the calendar and smile when they see they have to play the Bills.

[mjt328]

The argument that Nix had no QBs to choose from is also disappearing.

 

Last year, it was clear he whiffed by not taking Andy Dalton for Aaron Williams.

This year, we watched him pass on Russell Wilson for TJ Graham.

 

Over the last 2 weeks, we have also witnessed Colin Kaepernick show what he can do.

 

[RyanC883]

yea i dont think you can compare the 2. polian has created teams that reached 6 superbowls, buddy 0 its as simple as that.

 

This basically says it all. Winning is really the only thing that matters. And those drafts looked pretty good to me. Were there some misses, yes. But he got impact players on the non-misses. Here, we are lucky to get role players on the non-misses. The only impact player is Spiller, whose value is mitigated by Nix's hiring and refusal to fire Chan Gailey who can't seem to figure out he's the best player on our offense. (along w/ SJ, but SJ is cramped by the "QB" we have).

 

The argument that Nix had no QBs to choose from is also disappearing.

 

Last year, it was clear he whiffed by not taking Andy Dalton for Aaron Williams.

This year, we watched him pass on Russell Wilson for TJ Graham.

 

Over the last 2 weeks, we have also witnessed Colin Kaepernick show what he can do.

 

I agree that he missed on a large number of QB's. Part of me thinks he could draft Joe Montana and Peyton Manning and it wouldn't matter with Chan calling the plays. They MUST draft a QB in the 1st and another one in a later round this year.

[BuffOrange]

If the standard for drafting is perfection, every single GM falls woefully short. There aren't many guys who approach Polian, who was successful before and after the salary cap went into effect.

 

Then again, there are people who chalk up his entire success in Buffalo and Indianapolis to having the number one pick in 1985 and 1998. That, of course, remains the extremely lazy view and completely ignores the other draft success BP had as GM of those clubs.

 

I don't think it's that lazy to chalk up his Indy success to the '97 Colts finishing with the worst record and lucking into an all-time player at the most important position. The 2011 Colts and 2012 Broncos are pretty compelling evidence for that.

 

Granted it is pretty stupid to cherry-pick picks that didn't pan out, which happens to everyone. Only on a message board does someone have to be either an all-time great, or no better than Buddy Nix.

[nucci]

I've heard so many complaints about all the failed top draft picks Buddy Nix has made I was wondering how he compared to Bill Polian? I looked up the picks he took through round 3, figuring that players drafted there are the ones expected to start. Here's what I got:

 

1986

1. Ronnie Harmon

1. Will Wolford

2. Leonard Burton

 

1987

1. Shane Conlan

2. Nate Odomes

2. Roland Mitchell

3. David Brandon

3. Jamie Mueller

 

1988

2. Thurman Thomas

3. Bernard Ford

 

1989

3. Don Beebe

 

1990

1. J. D. Williams

2. Carwell Gardner

3. Glenn Parker

 

1991

1. Henry Jones

2. Phil Hansen

3. Darryl Wren

 

1992

1. John Fina

2. James Patton

3. Keith Goganious

 

I highlighted the ones that never panned out or never met expectations. With the exception of 1989, where there was only one pick, every draft had at least one miss. Bill Polian set the standard for every following Bills GM, but he wasn't perfect.

 

Buddy has been hurt by the 2011 class, which had looked terrific going into this year, but has regressed. I think it's too soon to call it a failure yet.

Big difference is Polian's teams made the playoffs.

[Fan in Chicago]

Big difference is Polian's teams made the playoffs.

 

Yes but in which year or his regime ? If we are going to compare, compare at equal points of their tenure. Not saying we are on the cusp of greatness but we could be only a couple of critical pieces away from the playoffs.

Note: this is not bashing Polian at all. I m simply saying that we have a lot more body of work (i.e. years in the position) from Polian to point to compared to Nix.

[nucci]

Yes but in which year or his regime ? If we are going to compare, compare at equal points of their tenure. Not saying we are on the cusp of greatness but we could be only a couple of critical pieces away from the playoffs.

Note: this is not bashing Polian at all. I m simply saying that we have a lot more body of work (i.e. years in the position) from Polian to point to compared to Nix.

Understood. Not bashing on Nix's draft just the W-L record.. Polian came on and was able to draft Bruce 1st overall. Got lucky USFL folded to get Kelly. Three years in would be 1988 for Polian and that was one of his better teams. Correct me if I have the years wrong. May be off by a bit.

[dave mcbride]

Polian got the QB right, getting Kelly to sign. Everything else is gravy. Let's not forget the Bennett trade either. He was a truly dominant player for a few years.

[JPS]

Lets not forget they greta trade that netted us Corneleous Bennet! That trade their was huge in putting another impact player in the front seven!!

And also don't forget that Polian drafted Ballard in the 11th round knowing he was going back to school and got his right tackle for the price of a loophole. Polian had a plan and did what he needed to do to fill in the blanks.

 

What is the Bills' current plan?

[Packerland Bills Fan]

Polian is better than Nix, no doubt, and the results have shown it. I started this thread to show that Polian wasn't perfect. I would take Nix over any of the others in between the two, though.

 

What Polian had that Nix doesn't is Jim Kelly at QB. Many people say Nix should have taken Kaepernick or Dalton, but if they had looked like sure things at the time they wouldn't have gone in Round 2. They were passed over by a lot of people.

 

Nix has to find an upgrade at QB and he's said that's what they plan to do. I would rather see him be given a chance to find one as opposed to showing him the door and starting completely over yet again.

Edited November 26, 2012 by Flatlander