halfway through the season, knowing what we know at this point

[mountainwampus]

TJ Graham was a 6th rounder at best. Spending a 3rd and a 7th pick on a guy who could've easily been attained in the 6th makes him the bust of the draft. This was known the instant he was picked. "REACH!!!" -Everyone in the shoutbox, moment TJ was drafted.

[The Poojer]

So who would you have taken in his place?

 

TJ Graham was a 6th rounder at best. Spending a 3rd and a 7th pick on a guy who could've easily been attained in the 6th makes him the bust of the draft. This was known the instant he was picked. "REACH!!!" -Everyone in the shoutbox, moment TJ was drafted.

[Sisyphean Bills]

This is true. However, QB is different. If we had drafted any of those 3...you know what this board would be like right now. And, we'd have no guarantees that any of the 3 are any better than Fitz. Hence, we'd have taken on trouble, with no significant upside? We go through all this hell...for a backup?

 

I guess I want a QB we KNOW can play in this league, and is a backup in name only. I don't want another Edwards, a 3rd round pick with this issue, and "can he overcome blah, blah, can he make the transition?" I don't want question marks. If we are drafting a QB, then let's be serious about it. QB is the ONLY position, due to the league today, especially the rule changes, where trading up makes sense.

I understand your point, and clearly anyone with a pair of working neurons under their helmet would want the franchise guy, the next Elway, over the next solid backup.

 

But, my point is about building a winning franchise. Fortunately, Fitz has shown to be very durable, but he is one missed block and crushing hit away from getting knocked out every snap he takes. Investing a 3rd round pick in a prospect that might be able to play in the future is the intelligent move for a team that has Tyler Thigpen as its primary backup. Speaking of question marks, would you rather develop a question mark for a couple of years behind Fitz or go through seasons with certainty that you have a guy that looks awful in pre-season scrimmages as your backup?

 

You are correct that not bringing in any real competition at the QB position does make Fitzpatrick more comfortable in his role. And, that seems to be really what Gailey's concern has been as he often talks about not letting his QB get down and expresses his unyielding confidence.

 

I still say the RG3 trade was ludicrous. We'll see...especially when the Redskins are drafting at #10+ again this time, and there goes another top 10 pick...never mind next year. But, I would have nothing against packing this year's 1 and 2 to get up to get a guy we KNOW can play.

 

And, as far as "KNOW" goes, I trust Buddy/Whaley to be able to make that call.

 

Buddy's first draft class is now ready to be evaluated. Spiller has emerged as a player, but the rest of that draft can't get much more than a rating of "poor". I'm glad you haven't lost your faith in Nix' abilities though.

[OCinBuffalo]

I live in a Md. suburb of DC. So I get to watch Grifin III a lot. Whatever the Skins gave up for him is well worth it. He is a going to be a premier qb in this league for a very long time. In the long run it doesn't matter what the Skins' record is for this season or the short term. He is the foundaton from which that franchise will build around..He is a cornerstone player and a special player that few teams have an opportunity to acquire in a generation or so. Mike Shanahan took a risk. If you saw him play you would surely say it was well worth it.

But, I did see him play. 2 times now, live, in the NFL. I also saw Manning 2 twice, live his rookie year. The difference is what I have now: Game Rewind. I've watched a lot of RG3 in large part due to posts like this.

 

Based on what I've seen, and given these circumstances? Nope.

 

You've raised and settled your own issue: is the Redskin's current record RG3's fault? No. But...actually: yes. The team you say will be built around him...can't be...because the next 2 first round picks, and a 2nd, won't be there to help. Doesn't the 3 picks given away in fact require RG3 to be winning games without his team? I think we can agree that given the horrific Colt's D during Manning's time there, almost every year, he won games by himself.

 

As always, anything can happen. But, given that FO's history and Shanahan's QB development/tampering skills? Also: nope.

 

You are right: this is not about rookie year team records. This is about the ceiling for one guy vs another. IMO, based on what I saw while spending nearly the entire game observing both QBs, both times? Manning is a HOF. RG3's dependent on the team you say will be built around him.

 

Which will be all that much harder to do without 2 1s and a 2.

[mountainwampus]

So who would you have taken in his place?

 

On draft day, after Kuechly got picked, I was all in for Michael Floyd at #1. In hindsight, he hasn't done much, but I still think that would've been the smarter pick. Though, nothing against Gilmore.

[OCinBuffalo]

I understand your point, and clearly anyone with a pair of working neurons under their helmet would want the franchise guy, the next Elway, over the next solid backup.

 

But, my point is about building a winning franchise. Fortunately, Fitz has shown to be very durable, but he is one missed block and crushing hit away from getting knocked out every snap he takes. Investing a 3rd round pick in a prospect that might be able to play in the future is the intelligent move for a team that has Tyler Thigpen as its primary backup. Speaking of question marks, would you rather develop a question mark for a couple of years behind Fitz or go through seasons with certainty that you have a guy that looks awful in pre-season scrimmages as your backup?

 

You are correct that not bringing in any real competition at the QB position does make Fitzpatrick more comfortable in his role. And, that seems to be really what Gailey's concern has been as he often talks about not letting his QB get down and expresses his unyielding confidence.

Yeah, but that's not what I was saying. I was saying: the draft is a finite, zero-sum game, where picks 1-5 have significant value. Why would we play around with trying to get a backup, who is a backup, rather than, if this is the year to pull the trigger, pull it? (BTW: this doesn't appear to be the year to pull the trigger on anybody.) And, I don't mean spray and pray = RG3.

 

I think it's a matter of priority. And, also yeah, injury. For all intents and purposes we are "starting" TJ Graham in place of David Nelson on 5-60% of our plays...due to injury.

 

That's a guy on the field, contributing(or, trying to ) on a lot of downs.

 

In contrast, drafting a solid backup puts a guy...on the bench. And, yeah, things could have gone the other way, Fitz could be out and we could be starting out 3rd round QB pick right now. But, it didn't. We already know what starting a 3rd rounder looks like = Trent Edwards. We all thought: "how smart, draft a guy now and develop him". The problem is: he's a 3rd rounder for a reason...because he can't develop.

 

If a QB can last until the 3rd round today, with these frenzied notions of giving away 3 picks to get a guy, so that you can build a team around him

( )...there has to be a very real reasons why. Due to that my question is: what is the difference between drafting a 3rd round QB....and a 4th-7th round QB, if he's going to be a back up? Why waste a 3rd round pick(solid starter) on the bench?

Buddy's first draft class is now ready to be evaluated. Spiller has emerged as a player, but the rest of that draft can't get much more than a rating of "poor". I'm glad you haven't lost your faith in Nix' abilities though.

Meh.

 

More than a little bad luck there with Troup and Easley. Carrington has been the solid 3rd rounder he was supposed to be. 5th-7th since Buddy has taken over are not making this team fairly regularly. Speaking of "building a franchise" that's how you can tell when one is being built, and not simply recycled.

 

Also, perhaps you forgot about Buddy "helping" with the 2009 draft? Is now a good time to evaluate that one as well? Since we know how Maybin got picked(or we think we have a pretty good idea) I'd say following that with picks Buddy did have a say in: Wood, Byrd and Levitre wasn't too bad.

 

While we are at it, 2011:

Great(in terms of value): Searcy, Hairston, Rogers

Good: Dareus, Sheppard

?: A. Williams, J. White, C. White

Bad: Jasper...but who cares?

 

7/9 of those guys are seeing significant active roster time, and/or are on the field every game. Too early to say too much...but they aren't bad. Johnny White is a Packer, and I think that's too bad. Jasper? Who knows, who cares? 7th round pick.

 

Buddy's record at drafting is pretty damn convincing, and well documented both here and at SD. Not sure why anybody would dispute that...when all you need to do is google it.

Edited November 20, 2012 by OCinBuffalo

[Sisyphean Bills]

Yeah, but that's not what I was saying. I was saying: the draft is a finite, zero-sum game, where picks 1-5 have significant value. Why would we play around with trying to get a backup, who is a backup, rather than, if this is the year to pull the trigger, pull it?

For the simple fact that there are so few elite franchise QBs in any draft -- heck many drafts have 0 such QBs as you've stated. It's nice to stand on principle and refuse to attempt to develop anyone that's not blessed coming out of college, but it's also living in denial. It's tantamount to raising the white flag and saying that you'd rather be a 4 to 7 win a year team until the next 1983 QB class rolls around and you can get a franchise QB with your second 1st round pick. How often does that happen? About once in Ralph's lifetime. The Bills have been living with a mix of stop-gaps and misled scouting since Jim Kelly retired. Just because they blew the call with JP Losman hugely doesn't mean 2 regimes later you shouldn't even try to develop a QB.

 

Edit: FWIW, drafting a good prospect in the 3rd-7th round to develop does not mean a team has to pass on the next Peyton Manning they see on their board. These things are not mutually exclusive by any stretch.

 

Buddy's record at drafting is pretty damn convincing, and well documented both here and at SD. Not sure why anybody would dispute that...when all you need to do is google it.

 

Buddy has no record in San Diego. He was a scout, not the GM.

[JohnC]

But, I did see him play. 2 times now, live, in the NFL. I also saw Manning 2 twice, live his rookie year. The difference is what I have now: Game Rewind. I've watched a lot of RG3 in large part due to posts like this.

 

Based on what I've seen, and given these circumstances? Nope.

 

You've raised and settled your own issue: is the Redskin's current record RG3's fault? No. But...actually: yes. The team you say will be built around him...can't be...because the next 2 first round picks, and a 2nd, won't be there to help. Doesn't the 3 picks given away in fact require RG3 to be winning games without his team? I think we can agree that given the horrific Colt's D during Manning's time there, almost every year, he won games by himself.

 

As always, anything can happen. But, given that FO's history and Shanahan's QB development/tampering skills? Also: nope.

 

You are right: this is not about rookie year team records. This is about the ceiling for one guy vs another. IMO, based on what I saw while spending nearly the entire game observing both QBs, both times? Manning is a HOF. RG3's dependent on the team you say will be built around him.

 

Which will be all that much harder to do without 2 1s and a 2.

 

This is an issue that will be settled after more time passes. The reason why the Redskins have struggled this year has to do with their defense. It has been devastated with a lot of front line injuries.

 

Losing a lot of draft picks for a sterling qb (my opinion) is well worth it if the player develops to his abillity. After seeing him for a number of games I'm confident that whatever was given up for him is going to be worth it. The strategy that the Skins wanted to exercise with the departure of so many picks was to use their cap space to acquire some mid level players to bolster the roster until they were back in the draft market with their full complement of draft picks. That strategy was sabotaged when the league took $36 M of cap space away from them (2 X $18 M) over two seasons because they didn't go along with colluding with the rest of the owners during the lockout.

 

The Giants gave up a lot to draft Eli Manning. They now have two SB trophies on their premises. He was the instrumental player in that endeavor. In hindsight would anyone be critical of Tom Donahoe if he would have given up picks to move up to draft Roethlisberger? I doubt it. My philosophy is to value draft picks in general. But if you have a team that has not had a credible franchise qb for a generation then taking a risk to acquire a legitimate prospect is worth it with the expectaton that there are no guarantees in this particular business.

[Best Player Available]

Also, perhaps you forgot about Buddy "helping" with the 2009 draft? Is now a good time to evaluate that one as well? Since we know how Maybin got picked(or we think we have a pretty good idea) I'd say following that with picks Buddy did have a say in: Wood, Byrd and Levitre wasn't too bad.

There is so much misinformation in your post I can only comment on one. Otherwise It would take a thesis, I don't have that kind of time. I find it absolutely crazy on your 2009 credit to Nix. Why? I'd guess that you would be among the legion of posters that can give credit to Nix for anything and everything. BUT the maybin pick.That is revisionist history at it's finest. It's all modrak & DJ, I get it. Nix's drafts have sucked save for 3 players. Take a guess which 3. I'm all in on giving his "rebuild" another decade though. By then the team will surely be in competent owners hands.

[Cash]

And you can tell what a sorry bunch these Bills fans are. The Buffalo Bills got a starting Left Tackle in the second round. Probably one of the biggest steals of the draft and only person has said. "Wow we got a real steal with Glenn."

Seriously the Bills committed grand larceny with that pick. Even with the injury he looks better than a half a dozen Top 10 Left Tackle picks the last ten years.

People should be excited that the Bills actually had something go very well for them on draft day.

 

Not to mention, yes Gilmore gets burned on double moves but he will likely learn to counteract that over time. They have basically placed Gilmore on an island all season and he has been above average. Give him some time to season and he may actually be very special, just watch the aggressiveness on those double moves.

Fully agree with both of these takes, as well as your earlier statement that Glenn would go top 10 in a re-draft. My track record on guys I loved pre-draft isn't that great, but this was a definite hit for me (I was campaigning for the Bills to draft him in the 1st for a while). Glenn was arguably the steal of the draft. Probably not the #1 steal, because he still went high 2nd round, but still, to get a legit starting LT outside of the first doesn't happen that often.

 

Re: Gilmore, I'm not certain that he'll turn out well (I thought McLovin looked promising his rookie year as well), but I've liked what I've seen so far. I especially liked that in the second half of the Houston game, the coaches started having Gilmore follow Andre Johnson all over the field, rather than just lining up at RCB no matter what.

 

Would the Bills had made any REASONABLE alternative draft picks 1-3? Don't elevate anyone that is having an outstanding year but wasn't a blip in the 1st 3 rounds amongst all the 'expert prognostcators'

Personally I think they did a great job that will pay benefits for several years.

 

Round 1 is debatable. I'm still comfortable with Gilmore (see above), but it's not like he's been lights-out. You could make arguments for Bruce Irvin, Quinton Coples, or Chandler Jones, but even with the benefit of hindsight it's tough to justify adding another DE in the first round. And none of them have been so spectacular that you'd have to take them over Gilmore, at least not yet. You LB-lovers could argue for Donta' Hightower, but he hasn't blown anyone away, and CBs are way more valuable than inside LBs. I haven't really seen the Bungles this year, but their D is decent. If Dre Kirkpatrick is playing better than Gilmore (is he? I have no idea), then you'd have to say that was a mistake. Lastly, Doug Martin's been really good, but drafting another RB in the first round would've made my head explode.

 

Round 2 is not debatable, we made the best pick we could have, and probably the best pick of the Buddy Nix era. Case closed.

 

Round 3 is easily debatable, just because Teej hasn't done much, and hasn't even gotten much playing time, despite a few injuries at his position. In terms of who would you rather have, there's a couple candidates. Russell Wilson is the obvious name. I didn't want him before the 5th round on draft day (although I did like him), but since we're using hindsight, I would definitely rather have him than Graham right now, even though he probably wouldn't have played a down for the Bills this year. Looking through the 3rd round, the other name that jumps out is T.Y. Hilton. Granted, TJ has plenty of time to out-do TY, but to this point in their careers, it's no contest. TY has been way more productive, despite being the 3rd WR at best. (The Colts' official depth chart lists 3 starters at WR, and Hilton isn't one of them, but I have to imagine he's gotten more playing time that Dwayne Allen.) And yes, Luck is the highest-rated rookie QB prospect since Elway, but compare his season numbers to Fitz's, and you'll see that they're worse overall, so I don't want to hear about how much better his QB is, and that's why he's outproducing Graham. I also don't want to hear about how much defensive attention Reggie Wayne draws, because it's no more than Stevie draws.

 

Listen, if you want to preach patience and say that Graham has plenty of time to develop into a quality, productive WR, that's great. But that's not what this thread is about. Given what we know right now, there's no argument for Graham over Hilton. They're both undersized speed WRs playing in WR corps with 1 good starter and a bunch of nobodies. One is having a really nice year, the other is virtually invisible. I'm not cursing the Graham pick, I'm just answering the OP's question.

[OCinBuffalo]

For the simple fact that there are so few elite franchise QBs in any draft -- heck many drafts have 0 such QBs as you've stated. It's nice to stand on principle and refuse to attempt to develop anyone that's not blessed coming out of college, but it's also living in denial. It's tantamount to raising the white flag and saying that you'd rather be a 4 to 7 win a year team until the next 1983 QB class rolls around and you can get a franchise QB with your second 1st round pick. How often does that happen? About once in Ralph's lifetime. The Bills have been living with a mix of stop-gaps and misled scouting since Jim Kelly retired. Just because they blew the call with JP Losman hugely doesn't mean 2 regimes later you shouldn't even try to develop a QB.

 

Edit: FWIW, drafting a good prospect in the 3rd-7th round to develop does not mean a team has to pass on the next Peyton Manning they see on their board. These things are not mutually exclusive by any stretch.

But, they blew it with Edwards too, didn't they? 2 out of the last 2 drafted were busts.

 

I have a better idea/compromise, how about we draft a QB every year until we get 2 that stick? I mean, assuming what we are saying about QB is accurate, if we are rolling the dice, and we only have to hit twice, and the goal is to get a 10 year starter and a viably tradeable backup, more rolls = better chances. I don't see making a one-year move for a backup.

 

I'd rather draft somebody every year, and make it plain to all QBs on the team that it is solely up to them as to whether I will continue to draft QBs. Why dance around with them? Tell them how it is, stick to the plan no matter what, and keep drafting QB until it's time to stop, with stop being 2 QBs you are quite please with, and the 2nd as a game finisher, a nice trade option, and even a potential starter.

Buddy has no record in San Diego. He was a scout, not the GM.

This is simply inaccurate. Gooogle is your friend. And, look at what has happened to that team, specifically since Buddy has left, and specifically with their drafts. AJ whatever is a tool. Buddy was the brains, clearly.

[OCinBuffalo]

This is an issue that will be settled after more time passes. The reason why the Redskins have struggled this year has to do with their defense. It has been devastated with a lot of front line injuries.

 

Losing a lot of draft picks for a sterling qb (my opinion) is well worth it if the player develops to his abillity. After seeing him for a number of games I'm confident that whatever was given up for him is going to be worth it. The strategy that the Skins wanted to exercise with the departure of so many picks was to use their cap space to acquire some mid level players to bolster the roster until they were back in the draft market with their full complement of draft picks. That strategy was sabotaged when the league took $36 M of cap space away from them (2 X $18 M) over two seasons because they didn't go along with colluding with the rest of the owners during the lockout.

 

The Giants gave up a lot to draft Eli Manning. They now have two SB trophies on their premises. He was the instrumental player in that endeavor. In hindsight would anyone be critical of Tom Donahoe if he would have given up picks to move up to draft Roethlisberger? I doubt it. My philosophy is to value draft picks in general. But if you have a team that has not had a credible franchise qb for a generation then taking a risk to acquire a legitimate prospect is worth it with the expectaton that there are no guarantees in this particular business.

No, it's an issue you've already settled: a team needs to be built around RG3, and that has been made significantly harder as a result of getting RG3.

 

"Didn't go along with colluding"...WTF? I would bet $100 that this is yet another Redskins local media canard, and I would do it blind. Link please.

 

No, we give him crap because he moved up to get Losman instead, and wasted the #1 we got for Price. If we could have gotten Ben, we should have, and I'm not saying that in hindsight, every friggin scout in the USA, and I'm sure people in Ghana knew Big Ben was gonna be good. Nobody was saying that about Losman. Similarly, we heard RG3 was not a NFL accuracy guy, and that he would try to do it with mobility. That's pretty much what we are seeing now. The problem with this approach, just like with Vick, nobody short of, and since, Walter Payton has been able to take the "hit every play" pounding. I fear this will all be fine, until it isn't, and then you have a mediocre passer trying to learn how to read defenses = Vince Young. But, McNabb was able to do it.

 

As I've said, anything can happen. Perhaps RG3 is going to be capable of taking a team on his back like Manning did...for 6 years in a row with a crap D that could only play from ahead. I don't know. But, I'm not the one who said they need to build a team around RG3...am I?

[OCinBuffalo]

There is so much misinformation in your post I can only comment on one. Otherwise It would take a thesis, I don't have that kind of time. I find it absolutely crazy on your 2009 credit to Nix. Why? I'd guess that you would be among the legion of posters that can give credit to Nix for anything and everything. BUT the maybin pick.That is revisionist history at it's finest. It's all modrak & DJ, I get it. Nix's drafts have sucked save for 3 players. Take a guess which 3. I'm all in on giving his "rebuild" another decade though. By then the team will surely be in competent owners hands.

Nope.

 

I suppose you have better information that clearly debunks the "Maybin was Juaron's guy" theory? By all means, tell us then. I'd much rather know the truth. If you have it, let's hear it. Don't be shy: this is why we spend our time reading posts here.

 

Nix's drafts have sucked? Now who's being obtuse? How many drafted players are on the team? Compare that with the Patriot's draft over the same time frame. Compare it to anybody's.

 

Nix Derangement Syndrome....great. And, the cheap old man just got done shelling out big $, because the entire football community said it was a good idea to get Mario Williams. So, now it's Ralph Derangement Syndrome as well.

 

Awesome. This is going to be a fun discussion...with you trying to have it both ways...really looking forward to this.

 

I get this feeling, with posters like you, not to say that it's right, that this is less about the Bills...and more about some sort of cathartic outlet for your life's frustrations.

 

This is a football team. This is fun...for some of us. This is what some of us do at 2am while we are waiting for a call, and there's nothing else to do. I don't get the need to freak out about it. And, the more freaking out I see, the less I believe it really has to do with football..

Edited November 21, 2012 by OCinBuffalo

[machine gun kelly]

I agree with the Dalton comment. That was a huge miss. He played 4 years in a pro style offense and had broken all kinds of team records. Gilmore, Glenn, and I think Graham will be good picks. I also see with development and maturity Bradham becoming a starter. Lastly, will Brooks turn into a starter at some point. Now years past taking Troup over Gronkowski, and other dufus moves is beyond me.

[Sisyphean Bills]

But, they blew it with Edwards too, didn't they? 2 out of the last 2 drafted were busts.

 

I have a better idea/compromise, how about we draft a QB every year until we get 2 that stick? I mean, assuming what we are saying about QB is accurate, if we are rolling the dice, and we only have to hit twice, and the goal is to get a 10 year starter and a viably tradeable backup, more rolls = better chances. I don't see making a one-year move for a backup.

 

I'd rather draft somebody every year, and make it plain to all QBs on the team that it is solely up to them as to whether I will continue to draft QBs. Why dance around with them? Tell them how it is, stick to the plan no matter what, and keep drafting QB until it's time to stop, with stop being 2 QBs you are quite please with, and the 2nd as a game finisher, a nice trade option, and even a potential starter.

 

Ridiculous straw man argument.

 

This is simply inaccurate. Gooogle is your friend. And, look at what has happened to that team, specifically since Buddy has left, and specifically with their drafts. AJ whatever is a tool. Buddy was the brains, clearly.

 

Yeah. Calling A.J. Smith "AJ whatever" and pretending he's not in charge of the team is very convincing.

[JohnC]

No, it's an issue you've already settled: a team needs to be built around RG3, and that has been made significantly harder as a result of getting RG3.

 

We have a fundamental disagreement that won't be resolved in the short run. My view is that RGIII is the caliber of qb who is worth the price of mortgaging the future with draft picks because he is (in my opinion) is the type of qb you can build a franchise around. How many draft picks is Peyton Manning worth? How many draft picks is Eli Manning worth to the Giants? The Giants gave up a boatload of picks to get him. Without a doubt he was the most instrumental player in their two SB seasons.

 

"Didn't go along with colluding"...WTF? I would bet $100 that this is yet another Redskins local media canard, and I would do it blind. Link please

 

http://bleacherrepor...-and-the-spirit

 

There was a very good reason, mostly having to do with the law, why the league didn't put the cap rule in writing during the run up to the lockout. When you start enforcing the "spirit" of the rules rather that the clearly written rule then that is an obvious sign that you are on shakey legal grounds.

 

.

 

Similarly, we heard RG3 was not a NFL accuracy guy, and that he would try to do it with mobility. That's pretty much what we are seeing now. The problem with this approach, just like with Vick, nobody short of, and since, Walter Payton has been able to take the "hit every play" pounding. I fear this will all be fine, until it isn't, and then you have a mediocre passer trying to learn how to read defenses = Vince Young. But, McNabb was able to do it.

 

As I've said, anything can happen. Perhaps RG3 is going to be capable of taking a team on his back like Manning did...for 6 years in a row with a crap D that could only play from ahead. I don't know. But, I'm not the one who said they need to build a team around RG3...am I?

 

I am abslutely saying that you can build a team around RGIII. I say that with no hesitation. You don't have the opportunity to see him as much as I do. He is an accurate passer, can make all the throws, is very smart, has a tremendous work ethic and is a leader. What more do you want? What have the Bills gotten without a legitimate franchise qb in a generation? The Skins have an upper tier qb on their roster who is going to get better. They took a risk in paying a hefty price to acquire him. In my view that investent will pay dividends for them. While the Bills continue their search for a capable franchise qb the Skins already have an exceptional qb to build around.

Edited November 21, 2012 by JohnC