Looking ahead to the Colts next Sunday

[eball]

Well, now that there is some semblance of optimism returning to a number of Bills fans, what do we think are the keys to next week's game? A win by the Bills moves them within a game of Indy, knowing the Colts still have to play the Texans twice and visit a desperate Lions team the week after next.

 

On defense, the Colts' numbers are not pretty; they're not that far off from where the Bills stand. They give up 4.7 yards per rush, good for 4th worst in the league. They've given up 18 passing TDs to only 4 INTs.

 

The Colts are also extremely undisciplined; their 832 yards of penalties are over 100 more than the next closest team (the Bills have 463 penalty yards, by comparison).

 

Everyone sees what Andrew Luck has done in terms of yardage, but his QB rating is a pedestrian 77.2 (12/12 TD/INT) and he's only completing 57% of his passes. Fitz, by the way, has a 17/10 ratio, 87.0 rating, and 62.5% completions.

 

What stands out to me is that outside of a remarkable win against Green Bay, the Colts record is not at all impressive -- wins at home against Minnesota, Cleveland, and Miami, and on the road against Jacksonville and Tennessee.

 

Of course, Buffalo's resume is not impressive, either.

 

At the end of the day, the Colts appear to be a very mediocre team with a promising young QB who is still making his share of mistakes.

 

FWIW, the Colts opened as 3 pt. favorites, meaning the bookmakers believe the public views the game as a toss-up outside of Indy's home field advantage.

[JÂy RÛßeÒ]

Same as usual - avoid turnovers & penalties, convert 3rd downs, score TDs from the red zone. Luck might be a little skittish after yesterday's beat-down so some pressure from the front 4 would be good.

Edited November 19, 2012 by JÂy RÛßeÒ

[PaattMaann]

I think the key is usually what the key is every week in the NFL, pressure their QB and protect yours....

 

we should be able to move the ball at will against the Colts IF Gailey's head is out of his rectum and he commits to the run, cant have stupid penalties like offsides (which worries me since were on the road in a loud stadium)

 

we will need to have a solid pass rush though, and especially a push up the middle, because Luck is great with time and great in the pocket....

 

could come down to special teams play (which heavily favors the Bills)....

[BobChalmers]

We need Indy's receivers to drop a bunch of Luck's passes the way they were yesterday @ NE.

 

Cripes that kid is good. Sure he made mistakes here and there, particulary when they got in a huge hole, but many of his passes are so perfect it's frightening.

Edited November 19, 2012 by BobChalmers

[DrDawkinstein]

Same as usual - avoid turnovers & penalties, convert 3rd downs, score TDs from the red zone. Luck might be a little skittish after yesterday's beat-down so some pressure from the front 4 would be good.

 

Agreed. The key to the game is having the "good" Bills show up. If the Defense shows up like it did against Miami, this should be our game to win.

[C.Biscuit97]

Their rbs are awful (I have them in a 16 team league). Their defense is very suspect, one of the worst against the pass. Basically, we need to play with intensity (which has been missing some games) and out physical them, They are very beatable but Luck could also carve us up. I'd rather go out aggressive, bringing pressure, taking shots downfield, jamming wrs, then sit back and get beat.

[PaattMaann]

Their rbs are awful (I have them in a 16 team league). Their defense is very suspect, one of the worst against the pass. Basically, we need to play with intensity (which has been missing some games) and out physical them, They are very beatable but Luck could also carve us up. I'd rather go out aggressive, bringing pressure, taking shots downfield, jamming wrs, then sit back and get beat.

 

yea but Wannys defense and Chans mentality is to sit back and get beat...remember, we play to NOT lose...we dont play to win

[tennesseeboy]

I think the Bills are capable of beating Indianapolis. That is the problem for me. The bills have no reason not to have six or seven wins at this point in the season and have a tendency to collaps under pressure. Time to get a backbone and some testosterone and do what needs to be done.

[FluffHead]

I think the Bills are capable of beating Indianapolis. That is the problem for me. The bills have no reason not to have six or seven wins at this point in the season and have a tendency to collaps under pressure. Time to get a backbone and some testosterone and do what needs to be done.

 

that's a bold statement

[Bills Fan888]

What I'm worried about is if we get in a situation similar to the one against the Fins where they just have to run a 2 minute drive to win it. Whereas Tannehill isn't able to do it (or at least wasn't last game), Andrew Luck has shown that he can. To me, the key of the game is to have our D keep the pressure on Luck by blitzing linebackers like Merriman and Moore while converting all those FG from last game into touchdowns. Against Indy's relatively weaker run D I think we have a good chance of CJ carving it up a lot more than he did against Miami. My main concerns are that this turns into a gunshow like with the Pat's and the Titans or one of our stallout offensive games where we can't get a TD as in the Houston and Miami game altough I would definitely lean towards it being a shootout.

Overall, I feel like we have a pretty good matchup against Indy but if Andrew Luck shows up and our D doesn't this could get ugly.

[Coach Tuesday]

1) Dominate time of possession by running the ball (and not abandoning the run - Chan, you hear me?)

 

2) Score touchdowns when we get in the redzone

 

3) Don't turn the ball over

[MDH]

Luck has proven to be a turnover machine so far this year. 12 INTs, 8 fumbles (4 lost). In the Bills 4 wins this year they've caused 10 turnovers. In their 6 losses only 4. When the D takes the ball away the Bills win- let's hope they do the job on Sunday.

[plenzmd1]

E, you know me, I never lost optimism

 

I also like the fact that the team we are chasing has some of the same chitty sheduling luck we had..namely they had a late Sunday game, followed by a game with a team(Bills) on 10 days rest, then they have to travel to road game agaisnt a desperate team that will also be on 10 days rest ,with both of those games at home for the Lions.

 

First things first, we gotta win this game. But if we do, I fear Cincy more than Indy has the best chance to grab that last spot.

 

Okalnd

@Chargers

Cowboys

@Eagles

@Piitsburgh

Baltimore

 

I can see Cinci winning every one of those games..They have played some good ball last two weeks.Why we need Pats to continue to win, keep pressure on BMOre and Texans to final game for the Bye

Edited November 19, 2012 by plenzmd1

[JÂy RÛßeÒ]

 

Okalnd

@Chargers

Cowboys

@Eagles

@Piitsburgh

Baltimore

 

I can see Cinci winning every one of those games..

 

I can just as easily see them losing 3-4 of 'em.

[MDH]

I can just as easily see them losing 3-4 of 'em.

 

No doubt. Are people forgetting Cinci is a team that lost 4 straight including losses to Cleveland and Miami? They are no juggernaut despite a good win vs. the Giants. Taking a look at their schedule that's the only quality win they have. The others have come against Cleveland, Washington, Jax and KC. Much like the Bills their schedule is favorable but they've proven they can lose to anybody.

[JM57]

If I were Wannstedt, I would make sure Gilmore follows Reggie Wayne every play. Let McKelvin cover T.Y. Hilton; he may be the only DB who can run with him. DE's need to contain Luck as much as possible. I haven't seen much of the Colts this year before yesterday, so I don't know how good their OL really is, but I feel confident at least KW if not both DTs can generate pressure from the middle.

 

This is a team whose run game is very average. Its the play action that will kill the Bills if their LBs are over aggressive

[Marv's Neighbor]

Same as usual - avoid turnovers & penalties, convert 3rd downs, score TDs from the red zone. Luck might be a little skittish after yesterday's beat-down so some pressure from the front 4 would be good.

Uh you left out a couple W-I-L-D-C-A-T plays.

[JÂy RÛßeÒ]

Uh you left out a couple W-I-L-D-C-A-T plays.

Well look at that, yes I did. And hopfully so does Chan.

[apuszczalowski]

Its a very winnable game.

 

Personally, I see the Colts this year as overachievers, they are playing much better then they should be looking at their team on paper where as I see the Bills as underachievers and not playing up to what they should be. Atleast as an underachiever, if/when things change, its for the better.

 

Hopefully the Bills come to play like they should and this game isn't going to go down to the last minute to decide it

[RyanC883]

Run the ball and get pressure on Luck to make mistakes. Gilmore vs. Wayne matchup will be key. If we can pressure Luck and not run empty sets on 3rd and 3 we should win. CJ could go over 200 yards combined against this D. I also think Chandler will have a big game.