The Voice of Truth Posted November 12, 2012 Posted November 12, 2012 (edited) While it seems nearly every Bills fan is calling for CJ Spiller to get massively more touches, his chance comes this Thursday. Spiller is clearly an elite NFL talent. His speed and explosiveness set him apart from a league filled with world class athletes. The obvious conclusion would be that you give him the ball tons of times per game. IMO, however, Chan Gailey has been using him correctly. When Spiller is in the game, the defense is so keyed in on him, that if you use him traditionally, his effectiveness would decrease. Because the Bills offense has shown they are not consistently capable of beating you with passes downfield, when a running weapon like Spiller is on the field, he is far and away the focal point for the defensive players. I've seen it every Sunday. The second Fitz gets into the I-Form and hands it to him, the defense is swarming to Spiller. While I would like to see more play action out of this, it is one of my only critiques of how he has been used. Because of this extreme keying in by the defense, you can't run him like a traditional back. You can't ground and pound 25 times a game. You have to find unique ways to get him the ball in space. Because you can't come up with 25 unique ways per week to get him the ball (your entire offense would be gimmick based), he gets 12-15 touches. You can rest assured he affects more plays as a decoy though as well. Jerry Sullivan today, wrote something to the effect of "Spiller is averaging 7+ yards per carry. When are they going to determine that this is a trend and not an exception?" Well Jerry and others, you get your chance this Thursday. While I expect a talent like Spiller to have a big game, I think his effectiveness per touch will drop with more touches. Chan has been using him correctly. Edited November 12, 2012 by The Voice of Truth
KD in CA Posted November 12, 2012 Posted November 12, 2012 Fewer than 10 carries a game is a mistake, but people who are calling for 25 carries a game are not taking a very long view. Spiller would last about two years before the pounding would wear him down if he got that many carries.
Turbosrrgood Posted November 12, 2012 Posted November 12, 2012 While it seems nearly every Bills fan is calling for CJ Spiller to get massively more touches, his chance comes this Thursday. Spiller is clearly an elite NFL talent. His speed and explosiveness set him apart from a league filled with world class athletes. The obvious conclusion would be that you give him the ball tons of times per game. IMO, however, Chan Gailey has been using him correctly. When Spiller is in the game, the defense is so keyed in on him, that if you use him traditionally, his effectiveness would decrease. Because the Bills offense has shown they are not consistently capable of beating you with passes downfield, when a running weapon like Spiller is on the field, he is far and away the focal point for the defensive players. I've seen it every Sunday. The second Fitz gets into the I-Form and hands it to him, the defense is swarming to Spiller. While I would like to see more play action out of this, it is one of my only critiques of how he has been used. Because of this extreme keying in by the defense, you can't run him like a traditional back. You can't ground and pound 25 times a game. You have to find unique ways to get him the ball in space. Because you can't come up with 25 unique ways per week to get him the ball (your entire offense would be gimmick based), he gets 12-15 touches. You can rest assured he affects more plays as a decoy though as well. Jerry Sullivan today, wrote something to the effect of "Spiller is averaging 7+ yards per carry. When are they going to determine that this is a trend and not an exception?" Well Jerry and others, you get your chance this Thursday. While I expect a talent like Spiller to have a big game, I think his effectiveness per touch will drop with more touches. Chan has been using him correctly. Agree completely. Yes Spiller has been great. Why? Because he doesn't have to do the things that FJ is doing. He is fresh, and he is being used in the situations best suited to his talents. It's not like FJ has been bad either, as a matter of fact he has been very good. The running attack as a whole has been terrific. It still boggles my mind why people are complaining about the one aspect of the Bills that has been good on a consistent basis...
playman Posted November 12, 2012 Posted November 12, 2012 flawed argument. if he indeed attracts so much attention we need to play him EVERY DOWN, as we are guaranteed single coverage on every other player. and even fitz is capable of hitting a 10yd cross on play action.
White Linen Posted November 12, 2012 Posted November 12, 2012 I by in large agree with the OP with one exception. Spiller is in the game (when it's his series turn) on 3rd and short. It happened a couple of times last game and the one prior. I think they've got to bring Jackson in to either give it to him or play action. The worst scenario is what they're doing, leaving Spiller in and worse giving him the ball.
jdbillsfan Posted November 12, 2012 Posted November 12, 2012 He had more carries the 1st two games, when he was the primary. He averaged over 8 yards a carry in both games.
The Voice of Truth Posted November 12, 2012 Author Posted November 12, 2012 (edited) He had more carries the 1st two games, when he was the primary. He averaged over 8 yards a carry in both games. He had 29 carries and 5 catches in the first two games. That's an average of 17 touches. That's not many more. He did get injured in his third game as primary against the Browns as well. That's got to be a concern. Edited November 12, 2012 by The Voice of Truth
MRM33064 Posted November 12, 2012 Posted November 12, 2012 I thought the only reason we drafted him so high at a time when we had glaring other holes was because the guy had a chance to be a "special", play-making, game-breaking star. In other words, he was thought to be a player good enough that it could possibly make sense for a consistently awful team (with tons of holes) to invest its high overall 1st pick on a running back, when it had multiple starting RBs already on the team. Finally, he starts showing flashes that indeed he might be this "special" guy and ... <drum roll> .... He's used now and then. Mixed in with the rest.
Endless Ike Posted November 12, 2012 Posted November 12, 2012 (edited) He had 29 carries and 5 catches in the first two games. That's an average of 17 touches. That's not many more. He did get injured in his third game as primary against the Browns as well. That's got to be a concern. How many games has CJ missed due to injury in the last two years? And how many has Fred missed? I have no problem in splitting time. But 50/50 should be the extreme upper limit on fred's touches. You're not going to convince me that CJ going from 11 touches per game to 15 touches per game is going to ruin him. Edited November 12, 2012 by Endless Ike
jdbillsfan Posted November 12, 2012 Posted November 12, 2012 It's the Mike Martz school of football. Instead of feeding Marshall Faulk, they get cute and out think themselves. If a player is averaging 7 yards a carry for the season and you only give him 7-8 carries a game that is not enough.
The Voice of Truth Posted November 12, 2012 Author Posted November 12, 2012 How many games has CJ missed due to injury in the last two years? And how many has Fred missed? I have no problem in splitting time. But 50/50 should be the extreme upper limit on fred's touches. You're not going to convince me that CJ going from 11 touches per game to 15 touches per game is going to ruin him. If you read my entire post before, you would know that I was fine with 15 touches. I stated he is getting about 12-15 touches per game.
jr1 Posted November 12, 2012 Posted November 12, 2012 He's tougher than people give him credit for. Chan treats him like he's a sickly chemo patient
The Voice of Truth Posted November 12, 2012 Author Posted November 12, 2012 It's the Mike Martz school of football. Instead of feeding Marshall Faulk, they get cute and out think themselves. If a player is averaging 7 yards a carry for the season and you only give him 7-8 carries a game that is not enough. Usually I would really agree with you. Coaches often times can't see the forest for the trees with their decision making. It is something I have stated on this forum before and is a real pet peeve of mine. However, IMO we have a case here where the seemingly obvious solution (give Spiller the ball a ton) is not the best one.
boyst Posted November 12, 2012 Posted November 12, 2012 Gailey is not coaching smart. Two of your best athletes, the best tandem in the NFL, and two guys that are dynamic every play must be on the field every play. There is no reason to put a 3rd WR who's talent level is beneath FJ's or CJ's talent level. This is not a QB, you can run a team with two players. The only thing I fear is that players are going to be looking for wipe out hits on FJ to take him out of the game and cause a fumble.
Jauronimo Posted November 12, 2012 Posted November 12, 2012 HIs YPC might fall. Even it does, his YPG will go up dramatically with more touches. Is the point of football to set some efficiency record or put points on the board? I think his YPC would go up with 20 touches, because one of those runs is likely to be of the 50 yard+ variety. Either way, I want to find out.
Gray Beard Posted November 12, 2012 Posted November 12, 2012 15 to 20 touches per game seems about right to me. Too many touches and you are playing with fire. Injury, fumble, tired and caught dancing behing the line, etc. More than 9, that's for sure.
The Voice of Truth Posted November 12, 2012 Author Posted November 12, 2012 (edited) Gailey is not coaching smart. Two of your best athletes, the best tandem in the NFL, and two guys that are dynamic every play must be on the field every play. There is no reason to put a 3rd WR who's talent level is beneath FJ's or CJ's talent level. This is not a QB, you can run a team with two players. The only thing I fear is that players are going to be looking for wipe out hits on FJ to take him out of the game and cause a fumble. We just set a club record with 35 first downs. The previous club record comes from last year with 34 first downs. Both under Gailey. He has high offensive accumen. I think we're doing something right. Edited November 12, 2012 by The Voice of Truth
KD in CA Posted November 12, 2012 Posted November 12, 2012 HIs YPC might fall. Even it does, his YPG will go up dramatically with more touches. Is the point of football to set some efficiency record or put points on the board? Only for QBs. Just imagine what Spiller's RB rating would be!
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