Why Fred and not CJ?

[MDH]

Odds are Thursday will reveal what everyone is now saying. The more carries Spiller gets the better he is

 

So I guess you think he's going to average more than 7.3 yards per carry on Thursday then?

 

I'll go on record and say the more carries he gets the less effective he'll be. I'm not saying he'll be bad, but he won't average 7.3 yards per carry if he gets over 20 carries.

 

Right now he has the luxury of getting to get the majority of his carries out of the shotgun on delays and draws - that is, he gets to work in space, where he's most effective. If he gets the bulk of the work he's going to have to carry it in short yardage situations and lined up in a more traditional run formations. That's going to reduce his ypc average.

[dundy249]

Freddy is better. That is why he was in there. End of discussion.

 

On what Basis? Cj is not only better in every category he is leaps and bounds better.......are you on crack?

 

NAME ATT YDS AVG LONG 20+ TD YDS/G FUM FUML 1DN C.J. Spiller 87 632 7.3 56 7 4 70.2 1 1 27 Fred Jackson 75 298 4.0 14 0 3 42.6 3 3 17

 

rec tar yard ypc TD Long F FL YAC 1DN C.J. Spiller 28 31 297 10.6 1 32 7 33.0 1 1 263 12 Fred Jackson 26 33 183 7.0 1 34 1 26.1 1 0 149 8

 

I stand corrected they tied in Receiving TD....oops Freddy is better...good lord the lack of knowledge is astounding.

 

Yea, because spiller has never fumbled. Wait.............

 

Fred 4 fumbles 3 Lose CJ 2/2 Cj more touches so hence Fred fumbles more.

 

Cj fumbles 1 per every 57 touches

 

Fred 1 per every 25

 

Hmm

[bbb]

CJ Spiller does things that I thought were impossible to do with the speed of today's NFL defenses. He turns the corner as good or not better than OJ Simpson did. I thought those days were over, as well as just pure blazing through the defense.

[Stealth]

So I guess you think he's going to average more than 7.3 yards per carry on Thursday then?

 

I'll go on record and say the more carries he gets the less effective he'll be. I'm not saying he'll be bad, but he won't average 7.3 yards per carry if he gets over 20 carries.

 

Right now he has the luxury of getting to get the majority of his carries out of the shotgun on delays and draws - that is, he gets to work in space, where he's most effective. If he gets the bulk of the work he's going to have to carry it in short yardage situations and lined up in a more traditional run formations. That's going to reduce his ypc average.

 

I'm not gonna guarantee a average. I will say yes he'll be more productive as a starter then splitting carries with Freddy. There's a reason since the time Fred got hurt last year to now only Calvin Johnson and Ray Rice have more yards from scrimmage than Spiller. It's not because Spiller is some mirage or only effective a certain way. As far as what sets they're running out of I'd have to do a bit more research on that, but I think it's kinda frivolous to say he won't be effective. In yards after contact this year Spiller is averaging almost 4 yards per carry. Yes short yardage situations will incline that a rb will get less yards. Also it would be wise to point out that Choice may be used in those short yardage situations, and honestly I'm not seeing much of a downgrade this year from Jackson to Choice. Almost all the numbers point to CJ Spiller being an elite running back. Why anyone would want someone as dangerous as him less used is beyond me. Going back to how he's used. Of course when you have a running back like Spiller you don't fit square peg round holes. Just like you're more inclined to run a rb like Freddy or Choice up the middle. You want to run spiller off tackle on sweeps. Get him out in space. Hit him on screens. The Bills offense in general has been run out of the shotgun. We're not suddenly going to become a power I team. Nor should they. I have little doubt that Spiller will continue to produce at an elite pace, just like he did since fred went down in the jets game and every time he's gotten the majority of touches

Edited November 12, 2012 by Stealth

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

From what I read .. Fred will not play Thursday. It's CJ all the way!

[MDH]

From what I read .. Fred will not play Thursday. It's CJ all the way!

 

I wouldn't be surprised, it looked like Jackson was knocked out on that play. I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't play in 2 weeks given how careful teams are in regards to concussions these days.

[bbb]

I wouldn't be surprised, it looked like Jackson was knocked out on that play. I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't play in 2 weeks given how careful teams are in regards to concussions these days.

 

Anybody know of a video of that play? The shoutbox was saying dirty play at the time, but I never got a good view.

[Endless Ike]

Right now he has the luxury of getting to get the majority of his carries out of the shotgun on delays and draws - that is, he gets to work in space, where he's most effective. If he gets the bulk of the work he's going to have to carry it in short yardage situations and lined up in a more traditional run formations. That's going to reduce his ypc average.

 

Link to him getting the majority of his carries out of the shotgun? Or am I to trust that you've done your own film study and are actively charting the offense?

 

Fess up, your entire post is pulled square out of your ass.

Edited November 12, 2012 by Endless Ike

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Fred is better at pass protection. Thats my guess

 

I actually think CJ is better in pass protection too. The guy is unreal. You can also tell that he knows the offense like the back of his hand--plays confidently and smartly. Just an awesome player.

[T master]

CJ is being wasted. he is the biggest gamebreaker we have and we have scrubs on the field more snaps than him

 

And if we don't get him tied up BEFORE his contract comes due i personally think he's gone ole Ralphy had better throw a check book at this guy b/c if he doesn't we will be watching him shred our D (which won't be that hard)

[Gray Beard]

My question would be why totally abandon the run when you have 2 minutes and 10-20 seconds with 3 time outs - there have been other Bills teams where maybe this would have been appropriate because the OL couldn't get a lick of push but a OL of Glenn, Levitre, Wood, Urbik, and Hairston doesn't have that problem- and by the way you can run in a hurry up offense- in fact run Spiller then lineup as fast as you can and run him again, continue at pace and put in Jackson when CJ needs a blow and I guarantee the Bills would march down the field.

I think there must have been a disturbance in the force during that drive, but Chan couldn't sense it. He must not be a Jedi. The collective energy of the fanbase yelling at the TV should have gotten through to him, but unfortunately it didn't.

[MDH]

Link to him getting the majority of his carries out of the shotgun? Or am I to trust that you've done your own film study and are actively charting the offense?

 

Fess up, your entire post is pulled square out of your ass.

 

Like confrontation much? You'll find people get along with you much better if you raise your points without resorting to this type of tone. But then again, this is the internet, what do I expect, right?

 

Nonetheless, I'll answer.

 

No, I don't need a link to know what my eyes see. Perhaps you don't pay attention of offensive and defensive formations pre-snap but it's something I do while watching football. As such, I notice trends. I'm not Dr. Z and I don't chart every single play but just for you I spent 5 minutes going over ESPN's play by play to see if my general observations match up with fact. I went through the past two games, if you want more feel free to do the research yourself.

 

In the NE game Spiller carried the ball 9 times. 5 of those carries were out of the shotgun formation

 

 

(Shotgun) C.Spiller right end pushed ob at BUF 23 for 3 yards (A.Dennard)

(Shotgun) C.Spiller right end to NE 11 for 4 yards (J.Mayo).

(Shotgun) C.Spiller up the middle to BUF 34 for 12 yards (J.Mayo; B.Spikes)

(Shotgun) C.Spiller up the middle to NE 27 for 6 yards (S.Gregory; D.Hightower).

(Shotgun) C.Spiller up the middle to BUF 42 for 1 yard (R.Ninkovich; B.Spikes).

 

In the Houston game Spiller carried the ball 6 times. 4 of those carries were out of the shotgun formation.

 

 

(Shotgun) C.Spiller up the middle to BUF 40 for 5 yards (W.Mercilus; G.Quin).

(Shotgun) C.Spiller right end pushed ob at HST 14 for 22 yards (J.Joseph).

(Shotgun) C.Spiller up the middle to BUF 26 for 3 yards (B.Reed).

(Shotgun) C.Spiller right end pushed ob at HST 21 for 6 yards (B.James).

 

So there, it's not the entire season but it pretty much lines up with what I think I've seen. I'm not going to claim that every single game would chart out like this but from my observations and from what I quickly looked up, he runs most of the time out of the shotgun formation.

Edited November 13, 2012 by MDH

[stony]

I love Freddie, but CJ is possibly the most electric back in the game. Yet, on the final drive, there's Freddie and no CJ. That, alone, should be enough to fire Chan.

 

Fouts said it best. Get the ball in CJ's hands 30 times a game.

 

Whatever he says, I would do the exact opposite. Worst announcer ever.

 

And seriously, Spiller shouldn't be getting the ball 30 times a game. That's a great way to ruin the best talent on the roster in two years.

[Dibs]

Like confrontation much? You'll find people get along with you much better if you raise your points without resorting to this type of tone. But then again, this is the internet, what do I expect, right?

 

Nonetheless, I'll answer.

 

No, I don't need a link to know what my eyes see. Perhaps you don't pay attention of offensive and defensive formations pre-snap but it's something I do while watching football. As such, I notice trends. I'm not Dr. Z and I don't chart every single play but just for you I spent 5 minutes going over ESPN's play by play to see if my general observations match up with fact. I went through the past two games, if you want more feel free to do the research yourself.

 

In the NE game Spiller carried the ball 9 times. 5 of those carries were out of the shotgun formation

 

 

(Shotgun) C.Spiller right end pushed ob at BUF 23 for 3 yards (A.Dennard)

(Shotgun) C.Spiller right end to NE 11 for 4 yards (J.Mayo).

(Shotgun) C.Spiller up the middle to BUF 34 for 12 yards (J.Mayo; B.Spikes)

(Shotgun) C.Spiller up the middle to NE 27 for 6 yards (S.Gregory; D.Hightower).

(Shotgun) C.Spiller up the middle to BUF 42 for 1 yard (R.Ninkovich; B.Spikes).

 

In the Houston game Spiller carried the ball 6 times. 4 of those carries were out of the shotgun formation.

 

(Shotgun) C.Spiller right end pushed ob at BUF 23 for 3 yards (A.Dennard)

(Shotgun) C.Spiller right end to NE 11 for 4 yards (J.Mayo).

(Shotgun) C.Spiller up the middle to BUF 34 for 12 yards (J.Mayo; B.Spikes)

(Shotgun) C.Spiller up the middle to NE 27 for 6 yards (S.Gregory; D.Hightower).

(Shotgun) C.Spiller up the middle to BUF 42 for 1 yard (R.Ninkovich; B.Spikes).

 

So there, it's not the entire season but it pretty much lines up with what I think I've seen. I'm not going to claim that every single game would chart out like this but from my observations and from what I quickly looked up, he runs most of the time out of the shotgun formation.

 

You didn't list the Houston stats....so I'll just work with the NE stats.

 

In NE Spiller rushed:

5 times out of shotgun for 26 yards (5.2 yds/attempt).

4 times not from shotgun for 44 yards (11 yds/attempt).

 

What was the point you were making?

 

Freddy is better. That is why he was in there. End of discussion.

Nicely argued.

[FanofFredJackson]

CJ is just a better player. That's not to say that FJ is bad, because he's not. CJ is just much better right now.

CJ is just a better player. That's not to say that FJ is bad, because he's not. CJ is just much better right now.

 

Freddie is time proven and has been instrumental in many of the past wins the Bill's have enjoyed, and yes CJ is becoming one of the leagues elite ball carriers. Yet even CJ can thank Freddie for being such a good mentor and teacher to CJ. The Bill's can be thankful that they have in their possession two such talented backs.

[MDH]

You didn't list the Houston stats....so I'll just work with the NE stats.

 

In NE Spiller rushed:

5 times out of shotgun for 26 yards (5.2 yds/attempt).

4 times not from shotgun for 44 yards (11 yds/attempt).

 

What was the point you were making?

 

 

Nicely argued.

 

Yeah, somehow when I went to copy and paste from word I made a mistake and just copied the same info - sorry. I went back and replaced it with the Houston stats - I'll post them below too:

 

 

 

C.Spiller up the middle to BUF 29 for 3 yards (T.Dobbins; J.Crick).

C.Spiller up the middle to BUF 35 for no gain (E.Mitchell).

(Shotgun) C.Spiller up the middle to BUF 40 for 5 yards (W.Mercilus; G.Quin).

(Shotgun) C.Spiller right end pushed ob at HST 14 for 22 yards (J.Joseph).

(Shotgun) C.Spiller up the middle to BUF 26 for 3 yards (B.Reed).

(Shotgun) C.Spiller right end pushed ob at HST 21 for 6 yards (B.James).

 

I don't know, what was the point I was making?

[bills44]

For the Free Pass Freddy Fan Club, what is an acceptable YPC for CJ vs. Miami?

[MDH]

For the Free Pass Freddy Fan Club, what is an acceptable YPC for CJ vs. Miami?

 

Not sure what you're referring to when you say, "Free Pass Freddy" as if he needs a pass. The guy has played very well since finally recovering from his injury. My issue is with people thinking it's a good thing that he's hurt and saying the team is better off. It's not.

 

So what kind of numbers does Spiller have to put up? Since FJ's been healthy the Bills have put up some big numbers at the RB position. In 3 of the last 4 games they've come close to or went over the 200 yard mark in total yards. Against Arizona, Tennessee and New England CJ and Freddie combined for 192, 222, and 246 yards from scrimmage and helped the offense score 19, 35 and 37 points.

 

So if the offense is truly "better off" without FJ (which is an unbelievably ridiculous statement) I'd say the guy has to put up over 250 total yards and help the Bills to score 30+ points (and pick up blitzes nearly at FJ's level.) Even then the wear and tear to CJ's body wouldn't even make those numbers worth it if they could get similar production with him splitting touches.

 

Hell, I love CJ. I think he's a hell of a back. I just don't think he's a 20+ carry, he can shoulder the entire load type of back. I think he's better suited to getting 15 or so total touches and most of those in space - which is exactly how Gaily is using him and it's working very well.

 

I actually think people will be disappointed tomorrow as I think Choice is going to get some carries. I'd be surprised if CJ gets 20+ carries even with FJ out. Just look at last year and this year when FJ went down - Spiller never got 20 carries and only had 2 with more than 15. I think he had only 2 games where he got more than 20 total touches.

[Stealth]

point totals in games FJ hasnt played and Spiller has-

 

2011 weeks 12-17

 

week 12-24

week13- 17

week14-10

week 15-23

week 16-40

week 17- 21

 

total 2011- 6 games 22.5 ppg

 

2012 (I'm including week 1 since Jackson got hurt and was a non factor in points scored and had only 6 carries)

 

week 1- 28

week 2-35

week 3- 14 (before CJ got hurt)

 

total- 25ppg seems we don't really have any drop off in scoring points when Spiller plays and Jackson doesn't.. Hell if you really wanna talk about effectiveness. Is Tashard Choice a drop off from Jackson? In the Browns game Choice had 20 carries for 91 yards at 4.6ypc. Which is a better individual game performance than Jackson has had since week 10 in a blowout loss to Dallas.

 

Taking this a step further. CJ's total stat line from the weeks Jackson didn't play 2011-2012 combined

 

Carries- 119 yards rushing - 754 ypc- 6.3 td- 6 tds 2 fumbles (once every 60 carries) 28 receptions 301 rec yards 3 rec tds 11ypc

 

Total yards from scrimmage in games Jackson left eary/didn't play- 1055 and 9 tds and total combined of 24ppg. What exactly are we losing with Spiller starting and Jackson not playing? well seems to be nothing more than a yard per carry for Spiller which Still puts him above Fred Jackson's production. Taking nothing away from Freddy he was great before he got injured last year. It's just time to make Spiller the main cog in the wheel

[34-78-83]

Why do we always have to pit two players against each other and decide which one we like and then throw the other one under the bus in any way possible? Oy....Bills fans on here!