tornado681 Posted November 7, 2012 Posted November 7, 2012 Interesting notes include: Chan made the wrong decision 4 out of 10 times when considering meaningful decisions only (excluding the last 2 records in the table). So 40% of the time he made the wrong decision. As Gregg Easterbrook would say “Ye Gods”! These incorrect decisions collectively hurt Buffalo’s chance of winning by 8% when considering each decision independently. If you assume that Buffalo’s probability of winning just before kickoff was about 35% (that is, HOU is a statistically superior team), that 8% number actually can be interpreted to hurt Buffalo’s chance of winning by 23%! Math: 1-(8-35)/35. Takeaway: bad coaching decisions are magnified when a team is a strong underdog to begin with. "drive #" "description" "score deficit @ time of decision" "4th down calculator decision?" "correct decision?" "impact to win probability" 1 1st quarter 4-8-BUF 44 (9:47) punt 0 punt Y n/a 2 1st quarter 4-1-BUF 35 (2:47) punt 0 GO FOR IT N -3% 3 2nd quarter 4-9-HST 18 (10:35) FG attempt -7 FG attempt Y n/a 4 2nd quarter 4-2-HST 4 (1:45) FG attempt -7 GO FOR IT N -2% 5 2nd quarter 2-16-HST 20 (:09) FG attempt -4 FG attempt* Y n/a 6 3rd quarter 4-10-BUF 26 (14:41) punt -1 punt Y n/a 7 3rd quarter 4-2-HST 21 (7:45) FG attempt -8 GO FOR IT N -2% 8 3rd quarter 4-7-BUF 23 (3:04) punt -5 punt Y n/a 9 4th quarter 4-8-BUF 33 (10:27) punt -12 GO FOR IT N -1% 10 4th quarter 4-5-BUF 35 (3:41) WENT FOR IT -12 GO FOR IT Y n/a 10 fumble; no 4th down decision -12 n/a Y n/a 11 END OF GAME; no 4th down decision -12 n/a Y n/a 4th down calculator source: http://wp.advancednf.../4thdncalc1.php
BringBackFergy Posted November 8, 2012 Posted November 8, 2012 Hmmmmm....yeah, I see your point. In other news, I have to hit the head.
1B4IDie Posted November 8, 2012 Posted November 8, 2012 Not only did this decision change the outcome and decrease the chance of winning by two percent, it sent a clear message that the Buffalo Bill are not a win at any cost team. They're not in Houston and will leave everything on the field. They're there to try real hard and if they doesn't work go get a meSsage in the training room no big whoop, houston was nice. Soft coaching, soft team. 4 2nd quarter 4-2-HST 4 (1:45) FG attempt -7 GO FOR IT N -2%
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