A Couple of Things Worth Considering

[Juror#8]

1. Obama will likely get one, maybe two additional opportunities to nominate Supreme Court candidates that reflect his judicial philosophy.

 

Andecdotally, Ginsburg (75) was to retire if Obama won re-election. Breyer (72 - I think) may call it quits as well.

 

At 77, can Scalia hold out until 2016? 2020?

 

 

2. Will the GOP continue to bet on the white vote being dispositive?

 

Minorities made up 29% of the vote this go around. Last election it was 27%. Obama was the recipient of 71% of the Hispanic vote and 93% of the black vote. The hispanic vote, which incidentally is the fastest growing minority group in the country, is up 4% points from 2008. An energized Puerto Rican community galvanized the hispanic vote and will likely do the same in bigger numbers if the GOP doesn't realize that there are other impactful voting demographics outside of white males.

 

Romney won the white vote by 20 points. The election still wasn't close.

 

Why?

 

To say that Hispanics and Black folks will only vote Democrat is to miss an opportunity to expand the electoral map. There are interests that affect different cultural groups uniquely. The GOP needs to consider whether or not the platform can sustain some movement towards inclusion. That may mean making some concessions or becoming the ideological leaders on immigration, healthcare reform, or the education revolution. In large measure, this election was a referendum on Obamacare. Mitt said that he would repeal it day 1. However the country re-elected Obama overwhelmingly.

 

So.....what are the chances that the republicans query: "Hey, what can we do with Obamacare that fits within the framework of efficiency, efficacy, and solvency?"?

 

It's better than, "destroy it," it shows a modicum of seriousness around the core issue, AND it endeavors towards a resolution to the same.

 

For a variety of reasons that I've discussed ad infinitum, I'm a HUGE supporter of Obamacare.

 

 

3. The Obama ground game is exemplary. It was described last night as one of the finest turnout and strategy machines that politics has ever seen.

 

David Plouffe is a genius. He is an automaton. He never smiles. He is obsessed with politics. He will be the most in demand campaign operative going into 2016. I wouldn't doubt it if he has already been contacted by a burgeoning Biden/O'Malley/Clinton operation.

 

 

4. We've known for nearly a decade that Romney was waiting in the trenches for the nomination.

 

The only old guard seasoned vet in the GOP ranks now is Gingrich. But he's an also-ran. Can he win against a Clinton machine?

 

I don't think so. I think that this is the perfect time for the GOP to let the fresh talent off the leash. They have no established candidate waiting in the wings. All the primary figures had significant negatives or were too much a throw back to social conservatism to attract an evolving electorate. I know that you hate them, but this may be the time for a Chris Christie or Jeb Bush.

 

 

5. The Fox News commentariat was VERY wrong. Not the news folks (Wallace, Ingram, Baier), the editorial guys (Rove, Morris, Coulter, Limbaugh [not Fox, I know]).

 

They weren't just editorializing, some (Rove and Morris) were offering projections supported by analytical models, and metrics.

 

Do their pathetic results color your opinions of them, their opinions, their data, going forward?

 

 

6. Where is DCTom?

 

Apparently, 9% of DC voted for Romney. Therefore, one can assume where he was between 6 am and 7 pm on election day, but he is unaccounted for since.

 

 

7. What kind of lame duck will he be?

 

Will he rebuff the base because he doesn't fear a re-election backlash?

 

 

8. What happened to the tea-party?

[Taro T]

1. Obama will likely get one, maybe two additional opportunities to nominate Supreme Court candidates that reflect his judicial philosophy.

 

Andecdotally, Ginsburg (75) was to retire if Obama won re-election. Breyer (72 - I think) may call it quits as well.

 

At 77, can Scalia hold out until 2016? 2020?

 

 

2. Will the GOP continue to bet on the white vote being dispositive?

 

Minorities made up 29% of the vote this go around. Last election it was 27%. Obama was the recipient of 71% of the Hispanic vote and 93% of the black vote. The hispanic vote, which incidentally is the fastest growing minority group in the country, is up 4% points from 2008. An energized Puerto Rican community galvanized the hispanic vote and will likely do the same in bigger numbers if the GOP doesn't realize that there are other impactful voting demographics outside of white males.

 

Romney won the white vote by 20 points. The election still wasn't close.

 

Why?

 

To say that Hispanics and Black folks will only vote Democrat is to miss an opportunity to expand the electoral map. There are interests that affect different cultural groups uniquely. The GOP needs to consider whether or not the platform can sustain some movement towards inclusion. That may mean making some concessions or becoming the ideological leaders on immigration, healthcare reform, or the education revolution. In large measure, this election was a referendum on Obamacare. Mitt said that he would repeal it day 1. However the country re-elected Obama overwhelmingly.

 

So.....what are the chances that the republicans query: "Hey, what can we do with Obamacare that fits within the framework of efficiency, efficacy, and solvency?"?

 

It's better than, "destroy it," it shows a modicum of seriousness around the core issue, AND it endeavors towards a resolution to the same.

 

For a variety of reasons that I've discussed ad infinitum, I'm a HUGE supporter of Obamacare.

 

 

3. The Obama ground game is exemplary. It was described last night as one of the finest turnout and strategy machines that politics has ever seen.

 

David Plouffe is a genius. He is an automaton. He never smiles. He is obsessed with politics. He will be the most in demand campaign operative going into 2016. I wouldn't doubt it if he has already been contacted by a burgeoning Biden/O'Malley/Clinton operation.

 

 

4. We've known for nearly a decade that Romney was waiting in the trenches for the nomination.

 

The only old guard seasoned vet in the GOP ranks now is Gingrich. But he's an also-ran. Can he win against a Clinton machine?

 

I don't think so. I think that this is the perfect time for the GOP to let the fresh talent off the leash. They have no established candidate waiting in the wings. All the primary figures had significant negatives or were too much a throw back to social conservatism to attract an evolving electorate. I know that you hate them, but this may be the time for a Chris Christie or Jeb Bush.

 

 

5. The Fox News commentariat was VERY wrong. Not the news folks (Wallace, Ingram, Baier), the editorial guys (Rove, Morris, Coulter, Limbaugh [not Fox, I know]).

 

They weren't just editorializing, some (Rove and Morris) were offering projections supported by analytical models, and metrics.

 

Do their pathetic results color your opinions of them, their opinions, their data, going forward?

 

 

6. Where is DCTom?

 

Apparently, 9% of DC voted for Romney. Therefore, one can assume where he was between 6 am and 7 pm on election day, but he is unaccounted for since.

 

 

7. What kind of lame duck will he be?

 

Will he rebuff the base because he doesn't fear a re-election backlash?

 

 

8. What happened to the tea-party?

1 - That was a big part of the reason I didn't want to see the President re-elected and why Akin should have stepped down immediately after sticking both feet in his mouth. Keeping the SC conservative is important.

 

2 - They have to put forth real immigration reform solutions or become irrelevant long term. If they can get Latinos to come into their tent then maybe they can get blacks as well. The D's hold on the black vote is so strong currently, it's futile to try in the short term to change it. Though it's imperative in the LT.

 

3 - The R's would be wise to emmulate it (to the extent they can). I know the D's had more money than the R's again, but I saw a lot of Obama ads on national cable networks and almost no Romney ads there. Not sure why they didn't run any. That would seem to be a mistake. They also need to crank up their get out the vote efforts, which Obama seemed to be very good at.

 

4 - To me that is the biggest problem the R's have. They tend to annoint party insiders / the next in line. The outsiders need to be bolder and flat out take the next nomination away; if they don't the next losing presidential candidate will likely be Gingrich or Santorum. Either of which WILL get me voting 3rd party.

 

5 - And Ed Schultz was cackling about the end of W's reign at 2:30PM on election day in '04 on the radio. Ooops. That was the day he seemed (to me at least) to go from reasonable lefty (I actually listened to his radio show some back then) to bull goon loon. To a large extent I expect the FNC misses to be a combination of wishful thinking and trying to fire up the base.

 

7 - My expectation is that he goes further to the left, now that he doesn't have any more elections to possibly lose. Hope I'm wrong.

[dayman]

#5 is significant. No amount of speculating about '08 fluke or denial of a changing country can prevent them from examining what it is about their party that can no longer win a majority.