Duck_dodgers007 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 New York Times stats guru Nate Silver has elevated the likelihood of President Obama’s re-election to better than 85 percent in his latest update. In an early morning update Sunday, Obama improved to an 85.1 percent favorite of winning a second term. That’s the highest Obama has scored in Silver’s influential polling model — which balances a wide variety of state and national polls and weighs them according to past performance and likely accuracy — since he topped 87 percent just before the first presidential debate in Denver. http://www.salon.com/2012/11/04/sunday_update_nate_silver_makes_obama_85_percent_favorite/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 New York Times stats guru Nate Silver has elevated the likelihood of President Obama's re-election to better than 85 percent in his latest update. In an early morning update Sunday, Obama improved to an 85.1 percent favorite of winning a second term. That's the highest Obama has scored in Silver's influential polling model which balances a wide variety of state and national polls and weighs them according to past performance and likely accuracy since he topped 87 percent just before the first presidential debate in Denver. http://www.salon.com...rcent_favorite/ Please just go crawl under your rock, you jealous little boy you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck_dodgers007 Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 Please just go crawl under your rock, you jealous little boy you. Ha ha ha ha!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Large Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 New York Times stats guru Nate Silver has elevated the likelihood of President Obama’s re-election to better than 85 percent in his latest update. In an early morning update Sunday, Obama improved to an 85.1 percent favorite of winning a second term. That’s the highest Obama has scored in Silver’s influential polling model — which balances a wide variety of state and national polls and weighs them according to past performance and likely accuracy — since he topped 87 percent just before the first presidential debate in Denver. http://www.salon.com/2012/11/04/sunday_update_nate_silver_makes_obama_85_percent_favorite/ It will be interesting to see how on target Silver is.... I read his blog daily, it's a great opportunity to learn how all this polling and prediction stuff works... He still maintains this race is VERY close, given his NFL comparison the other day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fjl2nd Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Ohio also moved into the "Likely Obama" category. Only tossup left is Florida. Lean Obama: Colorado Virginia Likely Obama: Iowa Ohio New Hampshire Likely Romney: North Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Ohio also moved into the "Likely Obama" category. Only tossup left is Florida. Lean Obama: Colorado Virginia Likely Obama: Iowa Ohio New Hampshire Likely Romney: North Carolina Nice link to whatever nonsense you are spouting. This makes about as much sense as that Trayvon Martin thread you started. You know, where this big strapping George Zimmerman stalked this little kid with Skittles and shot him down in cold blood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fjl2nd Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Nice link to whatever nonsense you are spouting. This makes about as much sense as that Trayvon Martin thread you started. You know, where this big strapping George Zimmerman stalked this little kid with Skittles and shot him down in cold blood. Talking about the 538 blog. You know - the site that this thread is based off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Talking about the 538 blog. You know - the site that this thread is based off... http://twitchy.com/2012/11/04/cnn-poll-reaches-new-heights-of-absurdity/ "The poll, released earlier tonight, shows a 49-49 tie among likely voters. But to get that result CNN had to use one of the most skewed samples we’ve seen this campaign (see page 29): Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans. A D+11 sample! By comparison, the electorate in 2008, when Obama-mania was at its peak, was merely D+7, according to exit polls." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mead107 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Paper hates republicans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 MSNBC has called the race for Obama 280-257 however Romney has won the popular vote 55%-43% http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/11/early-election-results-via-msnbc-148500.html Their missing electoral vote aside, it's the same map I came up with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 A test page always equals calling it. All test pages should be taken serious. But if Fox News had ran a test page with Romney winning, it would be clear evidence of bias and that the fix was in. Plus that missing electoral vote would have been grounds for ridicule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Hmmm...I assumed this was a post to bait OC into several tome-like reponses.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Miner Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 But if Fox News had ran a test page with Romney winning, it would be clear evidence of bias and that the fix was in. Plus that missing electoral vote would have been grounds for ridicule It would have also been a sign of Faux News Racism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck_dodgers007 Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 Quote of the Day "If I hear anybody say it was because Romney wasn't conservative enough I'm going to go nuts. We're not losing 95% of African-Americans and two-thirds of Hispanics and voters under 30 because we're not being hard-ass enough." -- Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), quoted by Politico, saying that demographics would be the only reason for a hypothetical Mitt Romney loss Tuesday. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83305_Page2.html Already fighting over why Romney lost??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMadCap Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Quote of the Day "If I hear anybody say it was because Romney wasn't conservative enough I'm going to go nuts. We're not losing 95% of African-Americans and two-thirds of Hispanics and voters under 30 because we're not being hard-ass enough." -- Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), quoted by Politico, saying that demographics would be the only reason for a hypothetical Mitt Romney loss Tuesday. http://www.politico....3305_Page2.html Already fighting over why Romney lost??? Not sure about that, but Romney not being conservative enough has been a complaint about him for some time now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cugalabanza Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I feel for Mitt a little. He gets constant pressure from his own party to always be more conservative and yet he has to constantly appear more moderate in order to give himself a chance. He's going two directions at once. In that way, he is kind of a master candidate. To cover as many bases as he has and still come off as believable... I think very few people could pull it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Not sure about that, but Romney not being conservative enough has been a complaint about him for some time now... And that's been the complaint for those way on the left regarding Obama that he's not liberal enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Flashback: Nate Silver gave Sharron Angle a 75 percent chance of winning On October 27, 2010, Silver wrote that Angle had “better than a three-in-four chance to win her race against Harry Reid, according to the FiveThirtyEight model. Ms. Angle’s odds improved today on the strength of a CNN poll showing her 4 points ahead of Mr. Reid.” Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., remains in power because he won that election by six points. http://washingtonexaminer.com/flashback-nate-silver-gave-sharron-angle-a-75-percent-chance-of-winning/article/2512645#.UJhBQ2fBTJm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Large Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 http://washingtonexa...45#.UJhBQ2fBTJm Its amazing she lost... with 14% unemployment- I seem to remember the social issues dragged her down and beat her silly in that contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BiggieScooby Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I'll elect to go with science. Nate Silver is using a mathematical non-partisan methodology, and backs it with an algorithm. His predictions were so accurate in 2008 he predicted 49/50 states with the exception of North Carolina, that Obama won by the narrowest of margins. To anyone who has spent 20 minutes on Silver's 538 Blog, read the wikipedia page, and even non-partisan news critics everyone agrees that it simply looks at the hard data of the polls as a statistical average. As Silver recently challenged Joe Scarborough, you think I'm wrong let's put $1,000 on this. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/nov/06/us-elections-nate-silver-predictions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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