dayman Posted October 31, 2012 Author Share Posted October 31, 2012 lol some of these "predictions" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fjl2nd Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 (edited) Romney - 321 Obama - 217 http://www.270towin....ons.php?mapidDQ link repaired (?) I still can't get your link to work but you're crazy if you think Romney is getting 321 electoral votes! You have him winning Penn, Michigan, and Wisconsin? I never bought into this being a close race. This country is hurting on all fronts. If Obama was white, he'd have a hard time winning California and New York. Romney 348 - 190 Obama http://www.270towin....s.php?mapid=YZH This is just silly. Romney is never winning Nevada, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, or Michigan. As for my prediction: Obama 281-257 Pretty standard map overall. http://www.270towin.....php?mapid=bbtt Obama wins PA, MI, WI, IA, NV, NH, OH Romney wins FL, CO, VA, NC Edited November 1, 2012 by fjl2nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 As for my prediction: Obama 281-257 Pretty standard map overall. http://www.270towin.....php?mapid=bbtt Obama wins PA, MI, WI, IA, NV, NH, OH Romney wins FL, CO, VA, NC That's the same map I come up with, except I got Ohio as a toss up. Trending Romney but I don't know if there's enough time before the election to pull ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BiggieScooby Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Obama 332 - wins PA, MI, WI, IA, NV, NH, OH, VA, CO, VA, FL Romney 206 - wins NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Obama 332 - wins PA, MI, WI, IA, NV, NH, OH, VA, CO, VA, FL Romney 206 - wins NC B-Man and PTS drinking the Cherry Kool-Aid® and you're drinking the Berry Blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFanM.D. Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Romney 285-253. He gets FL,NC, VA, OH, CO and IA. http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bcpt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dayman Posted November 2, 2012 Author Share Posted November 2, 2012 I'm thinking Obama takes it 281-257 Obama: IA, WI, MI, OH, PA, NV, NH Romney: FL, VA, NC, CO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Large Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Mr. Obama is not a sure thing, by any means. It is a close race. His chances of holding onto his Electoral College lead and converting it into another term are equivalent to the chances of an N.F.L. team winning when it leads by a field goal with three minutes left to play in the fourth quarter. There are plenty of things that could go wrong, and sometimes they will. But it turns out that an N.F.L. team that leads by a field goal with three minutes left to go winds up winning the game 79 percent of the time. Those were Mr. Obama’s chances in the FiveThirtyEight forecast as of Wednesday: 79 percent. Not coincidentally, these are also about Mr. Obama’s chances of winning Ohio, according to the forecast http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/01/oct-31-obamas-electoral-college-firewall-holding-in-polls/#more-36981 I thought this was an interesting comparison to the NFL- I wonder what the liklihood of a Bills win is up by 3, with 3 minutes to go.... a loss by 20? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OCinBuffalo Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 (edited) Since so many people are saying the same thing, about so many states....I'm going to do the opposite: http://www.270towin.....php?mapid=bfbG Why not? Obama: NV, MN, MI, OH = 250 Romney: IA, WI, PA, NH, VA, NC, FL = 288 This, given the data we already have, including OH early voting and the fact that PA is late voting and is about to have $20 mil in pro-Romney money dumped on it at the end...is just as supportable as any other prediction. 25% of PAs electorate is rich suburbs...and Romney is polling at levels there that could easily tip the whole state over. This prediction has the added benefit of causing 1000s of heads to explode on election night, which is also why I chose it. All that effort in Ohio..and it ends up not mattering? Yes, there would be some that night. (The only way OH/PA happens this way, is if we have been completely lied to about early voting in OH, by a multitude of people, and if Western PA stands on its head because it's pissed off with the EPA. Neither thing is that hard to imagine.) Edited November 2, 2012 by OCinBuffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFanM.D. Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Interesting you bring up PA OC. I live there and for months I've heard zero adds for either candidate on radio. In last two days I've probably heard 20 Romney adds. Obviously...his camp feels like the money is worth spending at this point....and they must feel like a win is within reach. Personally, I'd be surprised but not shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 What the Doctor said. This has been an election dead zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bfhw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OCinBuffalo Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Interesting you bring up PA OC. I live there and for months I've heard zero adds for either candidate on radio. In last two days I've probably heard 20 Romney adds. Obviously...his camp feels like the money is worth spending at this point....and they must feel like a win is within reach. Personally, I'd be surprised but not shocked. HeHe...if you think 20 ads is bad, you have no idea. Something is definitely going on in PA. I've been hearing about it for a while...we'll see how it goes. It could end up being clusterF, very easily, given some of the people involved. Whatever, I wonder, will the media will be saying about the TEA party on Monday night? You won't have to look for them, they will be all around you. I wonder if Nate Silver has factored people from 5 states hitting PA into his model? "Campaigns don't matter", Nate? We'll see. I also hear: the PA Ds are in full panic mode. Frantic calls are going out for volunteers...on a Friday, after 8pm? Good luck. Oh...and I just saw this: http://battlegroundw...t-pennsylvania/ Looks like what I heard is right, that's the 3rd place I've heard it. [been waiting for 30 minutes to hear back on something....oh well, I'll just post this now.] What I didn't know: Bringing in Clinton. For the last 2 days? Yeah, they are scared. This permanently ends the "PA is just a head fake/desperate move" argument. PA is in play, and it's not just the TEA party who thinks so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cugalabanza Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Romney: IA, WI, PA, NH, VA, NC, FL Romney: PA? You gotta be kidding me. That is simply delusional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OCinBuffalo Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Romney: PA? You gotta be kidding me. That is simply delusional. This is a prediction thread. What fun is there in saying what everybody else does? It's like a SB sheet, I was late, so I'm taking the goofy 5 square here. And that sucks...unless somebody gets a safety. This PA...activity...whatever it is, is making Clinton spend the last 2 days there. That is pretty darn close to looking like one of the SB teams has the ball, but on their own goal line. So...perhaps my 5 square ain't so bad, and a safety is coming...or, they just run the ball for a first down, and it's all a big nothing. Just havin' fun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fjl2nd Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Romney is simply grasping at straws now. He knows he is in big trouble in Ohio. Obama has been at 50+ there for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dayman Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 This is a prediction thread. What fun is there in saying what everybody else does? It's like a SB sheet, I was late, so I'm taking the goofy 5 square here. And that sucks...unless somebody gets a safety. This PA...activity...whatever it is, is making Clinton spend the last 2 days there. That is pretty darn close to looking like one of the SB teams has the ball, but on their own goal line. So...perhaps my 5 square ain't so bad, and a safety is coming...or, they just run the ball for a first down, and it's all a big nothing. Just havin' fun... Clinton is in mop up mode though. He's been in Fla and Virginia lately and whatnot...Obama himself and sometimes Biden (although he's been in Fla a bit) hit the crucial swing states hard first with as much possible after that,,,but first priority for the actual ticket is Ohio, Iowa, etc.... Clinton is left to hit up Fla and virginia and apparently PA in these final moments to maintain a presence there and try and push when Obama is out in the areas he must lock up that may be at risk. Just saying...Clinton is what he is...valuable no doubt but to think that where Clinton is the last days means desperation is not accurate. At this point Clinton is gravy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OCinBuffalo Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Clinton is in mop up mode though. He's been in Fla and Virginia lately and whatnot...Obama himself and sometimes Biden (although he's been in Fla a bit) hit the crucial swing states hard first with as much possible after that,,,but first priority for the actual ticket is Ohio, Iowa, etc.... Clinton is left to hit up Fla and virginia and apparently PA in these final moments to maintain a presence there and try and push when Obama is out in the areas he must lock up that may be at risk. Just saying...Clinton is what he is...valuable no doubt but to think that where Clinton is the last days means desperation is not accurate. At this point Clinton is gravy... If it was me, and PA really didn't matter, I'd park Clinton in Cincy and Columbus the last 3 days, and send him to Cleveland to try and figure out why their turnout is so down. I wouldn't waste him on "mopping up". We'll see. The #s say PA is in reach. There's no way this is head fake, or "desperation" . Not with the amount of $, and Clinton, etc. That argument is gone. One more "Obama can't lose" item scratched off the list. Man...not much left on that list, is there? Well, there's always 538, right? (Not for much longer) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dayman Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 Well how you would use Clinton is one thing, but one way or another he has his role and it's head surrogate...I actually am in a rare point of agreement here that they can't overplay him and shouldn't worry about it but one way or another he is not going to be anything other than second fiddle and for reasonable reasons...so to just to look to where Big Bill is and say that means they're terrified just isn't reading the campaign right. That's all I'm saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OCinBuffalo Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 (edited) Well how you would use Clinton is one thing, but one way or another he has his role and it's head surrogate...I actually am in a rare point of agreement here that they can't overplay him and shouldn't worry about it but one way or another he is not going to be anything other than second fiddle and for reasonable reasons...so to just to look to where Big Bill is and say that means they're terrified just isn't reading the campaign right. That's all I'm saying. At this point, anyone who thinks they can read the Obama campaign right is full of it. There's plenty of things they could/should be doing, for plenty of reasons. It's not like 2008, and it really doesn't matter what they do. But, the PA thing is real. There's no F'ing with that. Lots of people heading there, including the election reporters, pundits, campaign nerds, etc. Edited November 3, 2012 by OCinBuffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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