Electoral College Prediction Thread

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Romney: PA?

 

You gotta be kidding me. That is simply delusional.

 

Actually it's not. Where I live, you'd think Romney was the frontrunner. Now once Michael Nutter gets all the dead people to vote, that might change things. That court overturning the ID law was a slap in the face of rational thought.

[Nanker]

I just printed out my tickets to the Romney/Ryan "PA Victory Event with Mitt" scheduled for tomorrow evening in Yardley, PA.

[BillsFanM.D.]

Well how you would use Clinton is one thing, but one way or another he has his role and it's head surrogate...I actually am in a rare point of agreement here that they can't overplay him and shouldn't worry about it but one way or another he is not going to be anything other than second fiddle and for reasonable reasons...so to just to look to where Big Bill is and say that means they're terrified just isn't reading the campaign right. That's all I'm saying.

 

I agree with the first bolded part. Clinton is political gold for the most part. If I was running Obama's campaign, I'd have Clinton everywhere (critical) that I could prop him up. Which leads to second bolded part....It doesn't necessarily mean they are 'terrified' but, as above, Clinton is gold politically. Where he is heading....at this point in the election...has to be strategic at the least, and likely reactive in my opinion.

[/dev/null]

I just printed out my tickets to the Romney/Ryan "PA Victory Event with Mitt" scheduled for tomorrow evening in Yardley, PA.

I had a voicemail to go see Mittens tonite in Badnewz

[Nanker]

I had a voicemail to go see Mittens tonite in Badnewz

Well if you decide to go... just don't dress up as your avatar. I'm just sayin'. I wont either.

[BillsFanM.D.]

Well if you decide to go... just don't dress up as your avatar. I'm just sayin'. I wont either.

 

Come on Nanker....nothing wrong with a little "Tim" at the event. Now I'd much rather see the toad than that freaky clown.....

[dayman]

I'm thinking Obama takes it 281-257

 

Obama: IA, WI, MI, OH, PA, NV, NH

 

Romney: FL, VA, NC, CO

 

I'm throwing CO into Obama corner last minute

 

:Romney: Fla, Va, NC

 

Obama: Co, IA, WI, MI, OH, PA, NV, NH

 

http://www.270towin.....php?mapid=bovO

 

290-248 Obama

Edited November 6, 2012 by TheNewBills

[/dev/null]

I had a voicemail to go see Mittens tonite in Badnewz

Well if you decide to go... just don't dress up as your avatar. I'm just sayin'. I wont either.

Come on Nanker....nothing wrong with a little "Tim" at the event. Now I'd much rather see the toad than that freaky clown.....

Tim Curry or Tim the Enchanter?

[BillsFanM.D.]

Tim Curry or Tim the Enchanter?

 

Tim the Enchanter!

 

I'd favor the Grail over Rocky Horror anyday.

[BiggieScooby]

I'm throwing CO into Obama corner last minute

 

:Romney: Fla, Va, NC

 

Obama: Co, IA, WI, MI, OH, PA, NV, NH

 

http://www.270towin.....php?mapid=bovO

 

290-248 Obama

 

I see Romney losing Virginia, but agree with your other choices.

[dayman]

Before I go to sleep I shall bump this to the top...update a final prediction...if you don't have flash it just gives Obama 201 and Romney 191 since you don't have flash you can't really change that but I will post the swing states so you can do them as you wish if you would like:

 

FL 29

NC 15

VA 13

PA 20

NH 4

OH 18

MI 16

WI 10

IA 6

CO 9

NV 6

 

Assign them a candidate and add it up yourself if you can't use flash

Edited November 6, 2012 by TheNewBills

[fjl2nd]

My Final Prediction:

 

Obama 281

Romney 257

 

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=brpQ

[/dev/null]

My Final Prediction:

 

Obama 281

Romney 257

 

http://www.270towin.....php?mapid=brpQ

Same

[Fezmid]

I don't know what I did, but it ended up being 269/269.

No winner. Just two losers.

So far your prediction is coming true -- it's a tie!

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/06/a-tie-for-obama-and-romney-in-nations-first-voting/?hpt=hp_t2_6

[Oxrock]

 

So far your prediction is coming true -- it's a tie!

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/06/a-tie-for-obama-and-romney-in-nations-first-voting/?hpt=hp_t2_6

Fotunately the people installed a GOP majority in the HOR.

[Juror#8]

I think that by 11:00 p.m. tonight, it will be:

 

Obama - 277

Romney - 235

 

Obama will get OH, PA, NV, WI, MI, IA

Romney will get FL, NC

 

I think that VA, CO, and NH will be too close to call until early tomorrow morning. NH will break first for Obama but it will be entirely academic at that point.

[Fezmid]

I think that by 11:00 p.m. tonight, it will be:

 

Obama - 277

Romney - 235

 

Obama will get OH, PA, NV, WI, MI, IA

Romney will get FL, NC

 

I think that VA, CO, and NH will be too close to call until early tomorrow morning. NH will break first for Obama but it will be entirely academic at that point.

Everyone's saying Obama will win Wisconsin, but I'm not as convinced. He may, but I don't see how you can explain Walker winning the election for governor TWICE (recall), and Prosser winning the Supreme Court vote, but the state won't turn red? Plus, Ryan is from Wisconsin, so that has to help right? I guess we'll see.

[fjl2nd]

Everyone's saying Obama will win Wisconsin, but I'm not as convinced. He may, but I don't see how you can explain Walker winning the election for governor TWICE (recall), and Prosser winning the Supreme Court vote, but the state won't turn red? Plus, Ryan is from Wisconsin, so that has to help right? I guess we'll see.

 

That state is very independent. They vote both parties. Mostly blue in Presidential races however.

[Juror#8]

At this point, anyone who thinks they can read the Obama campaign right is full of it.

 

There's plenty of things they could/should be doing, for plenty of reasons. It's not like 2008, and it really doesn't matter what they do.

 

But, the PA thing is real. There's no F'ing with that. Lots of people heading there, including the election reporters, pundits, campaign nerds, etc.

 

Romney is betting that they can pull disaffected voters from suburban Philly (Bucks and the "other" Montgomery County) that are underrepresented in recent polling or simply depress the turnout there by assuaging enthusiasm. He knows he won't win these areas, but he needs to limit his losses (under 375,000) and try to make up for them in an invigorized top of the PA "T" (Tioga, Warren, Wyoming, etc counties).

 

Obama is betting that he can pull 1,000,000 in Philly metro area (seriously - 1,000,000 is written on the walls of campaign HQ in the Philly area) and 550,000+ in Philly alone. If he does, then it doesn't matter how much of the "T" Romney energizes. He loses the numbers game. Obama doesn't need to meet 2008 numbers - he only needs to maintain 80%.

 

Pittsburgh is reliably D and the turnout is less significant than it is in the aggregation of Philly, Bucks, Delaware, MoCo, etc. Obama is going to get 300,000 plus in Allegheny County.

 

That is why I surmise that Michael Smerkonish has had nice access to Obama recently. He just did an interview on Smerkonish's radio show last week. Smerkonish is from Buck's county and is a self-identified conservative republican who voted for Obama in 2008.

 

At the end of the day, Obama will win the battle in PA. Contrary to what some "gurus" here may think, BO has the numbers in his favor and it's gonna be hard for Romney to keep turnout under 1,000,000 in the Philly metro area.

 

Edit: I feel that I understand BO's campaign strategy pretty well. I've seen the ground game closer than you have - basically in HD; it is the most disciplined operation that I've ever seen in the campaigns that I've seen somewhat closely (statewide, Congressional, and 4 presidential).

Edited November 6, 2012 by Juror#8

[frostbitmic]

281 - 257..... Romney

 

Obama wins Hawaii, west coast, New Mexico, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and everything from DC to Maine.

 

Romney wins Florida, NC, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada and the rest