Effective Way to measure a QB's success

[poo]

An article in the Atlantic about how to analyze a QB's success. If anyone wants to crunch the numbers on Fitzpatrick I would be curious to see how he did by this scale.

 

http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2012/10/finally-an-effective-way-to-rank-nfl-quarterbacks/264154/

[Haplo848]

1435 yards on 218 attempts, with 9 picks. Going by their formula, that results in (1435 - (9*50))/218 = 4.5 adjusted yards per attempt

[NoSaint]

ouch

[CardinalScotts]

short passing game, long passing game, good receivers after the catch bad receivers after the catch, athletic tight ends non athletic tight ends, are your most explosive players wide receivers or running backs, do you have a good line or a bad one. If the defense knows you have to throw can the o-line keep the qb upright, do you have more than one good wide out do you have three like some. Do you play indoors 8-10 games a year Do you have wind and elements that factor in. Who are you playing against Does your defense help you or do you have pressure to score every time you touch it.......too many variables to many different scenario's

[San Jose Bills Fan]

short passing game, long passing game, good receivers after the catch bad receivers after the catch, athletic tight ends non athletic tight ends, are your most explosive players wide receivers or running backs, do you have a good line or a bad one. If the defense knows you have to throw can the o-line keep the qb upright, do you have more than one good wide out do you have three like some. Do you play indoors 8-10 games a year Do you have wind and elements that factor in. Who are you playing against Does your defense help you or do you have pressure to score every time you touch it.......too many variables to many different scenario's

 

I understand what you're saying but you could still say that Allan Barra's "Adjusted yards/pass," while not a measurement of how great a quarterback is, can still be a very good measure of how effective a quarterback is (as the result of all those things you mentioned).

 

In other words, Archie Manning was probably a great quarterback who played on terrible teams. This rating would confirm that Archie was not an effective quarterback while not really judging how talented he was.

[Saint Doug]

I still want to know how they got that 50 number. Wonder if its the average yards an interception is returned with pick-6s counting as 100?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I still want to know how they got that 50 number. Wonder if its the average yards an interception is returned with pick-6s counting as 100?

 

I don't think that's it. They don't explain it in the article, and without explanation some degree of skepticism seems warranted, but from what they do explain, they seem to be trying to figure out what an INT costs in terms of yards the team could obtain if they didn't throw the pick, and yards they'd deny the other team if they punted.

 

Which then calls in to question - when is the INT? If an INT is thrown on 3rd and long, or on 4th down, and well downfield, how much more costly is it than a punt?

As opposed to if it's thrown on 1st or 2nd down and gives the opponents field position within FG range.

 

Interesting article though.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I don't think that's it. They don't explain it in the article, and without explanation some degree of skepticism seems warranted, but from what they do explain, they seem to be trying to figure out what an INT costs in terms of yards the team could obtain if they didn't throw the pick, and yards they'd deny the other team if they punted.

 

Which then calls in to question - when is the INT? If an INT is thrown on 3rd and long, or on 4th down, and well downfield, how much more costly is it than a punt?

As opposed to if it's thrown on 1st or 2nd down and gives the opponents field position within FG range.

 

Interesting article though.

 

Good point.

 

Not all sabermetrics are created equal.

 

There's a really interesting discussion in MLB about which metric best reflects the Most Valuable Player debate between Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera.

 

Some of the conversations are very interesting, almost enough to make one want to study statistics.

 

The specific conversation was a criticism of WAR (wins above replacement) as a measure of MVP because WAR apparently doesn't take into account when during the game, certain events occur, similar to the point that Hopeful was making.

[NoSaint]

 

 

I don't think that's it. They don't explain it in the article, and without explanation some degree of skepticism seems warranted, but from what they do explain, they seem to be trying to figure out what an INT costs in terms of yards the team could obtain if they didn't throw the pick, and yards they'd deny the other team if they punted.

 

Which then calls in to question - when is the INT? If an INT is thrown on 3rd and long, or on 4th down, and well downfield, how much more costly is it than a punt?

As opposed to if it's thrown on 1st or 2nd down and gives the opponents field position within FG range.

 

Interesting article though.

 

Classically, you can tie yards to points. My guess is they had a conversion of interceptions to points and points to yards, roughly. Probably more complex but as a broad strokes approach

[ChasBB]

I still like this simple rule for rating QBs -- WINS

[reddogblitz]

A good QB is like pornography. I don't know how to define it (by statistics), but I know it when I see it.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

An effective QB has to have basic level of talent (which is Fitz's problem) after that it is how many Touchdown drives does he lead, how many third downs does he convert and how many ints does he have, that's it. An extra bonus is hitting long yardage plays and making plays when the pocket brakes down.

Edited October 27, 2012 by Buffalo Barbarian

[bowery4]

A good QB is like pornography. I don't know how to define it (by statistics), but I know it when I see it.

So what you are saying is you like a QB if he gives you a woody

[Captain Hindsight]

So what you are saying is you like a QB if he gives you a woody