birdog1960 Posted October 25, 2012 Posted October 25, 2012 (edited) http://www.nytimes.c...trade.html?_r=0 does perception really equal reality or do romney operatives only perceive it that way? Edited October 25, 2012 by birdog1960
B-Man Posted October 25, 2012 Posted October 25, 2012 2012 Electoral Map Forecast Using data from the Intrade Prediction Market http://electoralmap.net/2012/intrade.php Romney 275..........................................Obama 261 I'll take it BD .
dayman Posted October 25, 2012 Posted October 25, 2012 Mr. Wolfers estimated that it cost the traders responsible $1,250 to give Mr. Romney, the Republicans’ nominee, a six-minute surge. wut?
birdog1960 Posted October 25, 2012 Author Posted October 25, 2012 2012 Electoral Map Forecast Using data from the Intrade Prediction Market http://electoralmap.net/2012/intrade.php Romney 275..........................................Obama 261 I'll take it BD . ohio = 50.7 romney. 18 electoral votes. i'll grant that obama lost much of his lead in the debates but ohio is looking like THE battleground state. 18 electoral votes the other way gives o the next 4 years again. maybe you should place a bet?
fjl2nd Posted October 25, 2012 Posted October 25, 2012 2012 Electoral Map Forecast Using data from the Intrade Prediction Market http://electoralmap.net/2012/intrade.php Romney 275..........................................Obama 261 I'll take it BD . That site is not updated. Intrade has Ohio 57.7% for Obama and 41% for Romney. http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/electoral-map/ Obama 277-257 according to them.
VABills Posted October 25, 2012 Posted October 25, 2012 What happens if its a 269 tie? Romney is President and Biden is VP. See congress votes for President in a tie and that goes republican. Senate for VP and that is democrat. Hence, Romney/Biden.
Cinga Posted October 26, 2012 Posted October 26, 2012 Romney is President and Biden is VP. See congress votes for President in a tie and that goes republican. Senate for VP and that is democrat. Hence, Romney/Biden. I should know this, but have to ask.... Is the "selection" by Congress, lame duck version, or the newly elected?
/dev/null Posted October 26, 2012 Posted October 26, 2012 Intrade, you mean the same people that said Obamacare would be overturned by like a 70/30 margin?
dayman Posted October 26, 2012 Posted October 26, 2012 (edited) I should know this, but have to ask.... Is the "selection" by Congress, lame duck version, or the newly elected? I don't have a link. But I believe it is very strange. I think the newly elected Congress votes but it is somehow1 vote per state. Which is quite strange. Then the Senate for some reason, votes normally. If that is a tie in the house. Boehner become President free and clear. lol Edited October 26, 2012 by TheNewBills
/dev/null Posted October 26, 2012 Posted October 26, 2012 I should know this, but have to ask.... Is the "selection" by Congress, lame duck version, or the newly elected? Lame Duck And to expound upon VABills above response, when the House votes it is not 435 Congresscritters. It is 50 Congressional delegations casting a single vote. That one guy in Alaska is more powerful than Nancy Pelosi's 1/53rd of a vote That one guy in Wyoming makes Boner look limp Those Congresional Delegates from DC are irrelevant They say everything is bigger in Texas, but their Congresscritters pale in comparison to either Dakotan I don't have a link. But I believe it is very strange. I think the newly elected Congress votes but it is somehow1 vote per state. Which is quite strange. Then the Senate for some reason, votes normally. If that is a tie in the house. Boehner become President free and clear. lol Electoral College was a tie in 1800. Only time it's happened but it went to Lame Duck. So precedence is there http://www.archives.gov/legislative/features/1800-election/1800-election.html
dayman Posted October 26, 2012 Posted October 26, 2012 Lame Duck And to expound upon VABills above response, when the House votes it is not 435 Congresscritters. It is 50 Congressional delegations casting a single vote. That one guy in Alaska is more powerful than Nancy Pelosi's 1/53rd of a vote That one guy in Wyoming makes Boner look limp Those Congresional Delegates from DC are irrelevant They say everything is bigger in Texas, but their Congresscritters pale in comparison to either Dakotan Electoral College was a tie in 1800. Only time it's happened but it went to Lame Duck. So precedence is there http://www.archives....0-election.html Hmmm...I'm not trying to argue that is an interesting link. Other sources claim differently.... What happens next? According to the Twelfth Amendment to the Constitution, a tied Electoral College, which reports results to the new Congress early in January, shifts the presidential choice to the new House of Representatives, with each state's delegation as a whole casting one vote. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/terry-connelly/electoral-college-tie_b_2001724.html Also here's a non-huffington post claiming it's the newly elected house/senate: If there is a tie in the electoral college (and, as I explain below, there could be), it will be up to the newly elected House of Representatives to elect a President and the newly elected Senate to elect the Vice President. http://www.archives.gov/legislative/features/1800-election/1800-election.html
/dev/null Posted October 26, 2012 Posted October 26, 2012 Hmmm...I'm not trying to argue that is an interesting link. Other sources claim differently.... What happens next? According to the Twelfth Amendment to the Constitution, a tied Electoral College, which reports results to the new Congress early in January, shifts the presidential choice to the new House of Representatives, with each state's delegation as a whole casting one vote. http://www.huffingto..._b_2001724.html From tthe 12th Amendment that you linked and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. Electoral College meets in December. If that vote does not decide the President, the vote would go to the House. New House is sworn in, in early January. Current House members get first vote
dayman Posted October 26, 2012 Posted October 26, 2012 From tthe 12th Amendment that you linked and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. Electoral College meets in December. If that vote does not decide the President, the vote would go to the House. New House is sworn in, in early January. Current House members get first vote Do they meet in December and then officially report the results to the new Congress in January? http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/28109.pdf The electoral vote results are counted and declared at a joint session of Congress, held on January 6 of the year succeeding the election. New Congress convenes on January 3rd.
/dev/null Posted October 26, 2012 Posted October 26, 2012 Do they meet in December and then officially report the results to the new Congress in January? http://fpc.state.gov...ation/28109.pdf The electoral vote results are counted and declared at a joint session of Congress, held on January 6 of the year succeeding the election. New Congress convenes on January 3rd. Good question.
/dev/null Posted November 6, 2012 Posted November 6, 2012 Intrade currently has Obama at 72.0 and Romney at 29.6 Isn't this statisticimagicial wonder of science supposed to equal 100.0?
Recommended Posts