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The October Surprise


B-Man

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The October Surprise

 

October 20, 2012 - by Michael Ledeen

 

 

The New York Times reports (and the White House denies) that “The United States and Iran have agreed for the first time to one-on-one negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, according to Obama administration officials, setting the stage for what could be a last-ditch diplomatic effort to avert a military strike on Iran.”

 

Two of the three assertions in that lead paragraph are demonstrably false. One-on-one negotiations have been going on for years (most recently, according to my friend “Reza Kahlili,” in Doha, where, he was told, Valerie Jarrett and other American officials recently traveled for the latest talks). The only news here is that the talks would no longer be secret. And the notion that only diplomacy can avert “a military strike on Iran” is fanciful. There are at least two other ways: sanctions may compel the regime to stop its nuclear weapons program, or the Iranian people may find a way to overthrow the regime, thereby (perhaps, at least) rendering military action unnecessary.

 

I rather suspect that you don’t have to do anything to avoid an American military strike on Iran. I can’t imagine an Obama administration authorizing a military attack. An administration that can barely bring itself to fly air cover in Libya, and can’t bring itself to take any serious action in Syria, strikes me as very unlikely to unleash our armed forces against the mullahs.

 

As for the claim that Iran has agreed to talks, even that seems problematic, as the Times admits further down in its story: “American officials said they were uncertain whether Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had signed off on the effort.” If there is no approval from the supreme leader, there is no agreement at all.

 

The Times’ journalists — Helene Cooper and Mark Lander — then treat us to an attempt to calculate the political significance of their story, but that is as foggy as the report itself. Maybe it would help Obama claim some sort of breakthrough. On the other hand, maybe it would leave him open to the charge that Iran is using him to stall for time. Who knows?

 

 

This can't be the the Obama campaign's last ditch surprise. ..............A phony 'deal' with an untrustworthy regime.

 

Even they must know that this wouldn't impress anyone who hasn't already drank their kool-aid............lol

 

 

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This can't be the the Obama campaign's last ditch surprise. ..............A phony 'deal' with an untrustworthy regime.

 

Even they must know that this wouldn't impress anyone who hasn't already drank their kool-aid............lol

 

I don't think they care anymore, so long as it impresses someone. They seem desperate enough to be throwing everything they can think of at the wall to see what sticks, since their primary strategy of attacking Romney while hiding Obama's actual record isn't working.

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The other rumor floating out there is a "scandal" announcement by the the left's favorite scandal promoter/lawyer, Gloria Allred

 

 

Many are worried about rumors of a lightning strike from, of all people, Gloria Allred, and a deeply compromised MSM carrying as much water as is needed to drown Team Romney in the equivalent of George W. Bush's DUI.

 

Anything can happen, but it is increasingly unlikely for two reasons.

 

First, the country is in very bad shape. The difficulties are enormous, and no one who fills up a tank of gas or watches even a bit of news doubts it. This situation compels the independents and even many Democrats, perhaps privately in the latter case, to pull the lever for Romney.

 

Second, Mitt Romney is a very good man, and the past two weeks have put that reality on display for everyone who cares to notice to see.

A very good man, and the country wants that right now. They want to trust that someone with great skills also has the great character necessary to ask the country to do hard and complicated things, and the intelligence to choose among many competing proposals on how best to chart a course back to prosperity and security.

 

We do not double down on failure, and President Obama has failed.

 

{snip}

 

Bottom line 1: Mitt Romney doesn't choke, and there is no scandal in his background. Not even a chance of one.

 

Bottom line 2: Barack Obama has failed miserably and in every category of governance. There is no defending his record, and no reason to believe he will change either his ideas or their outcomes.

 

Most voters now know these things even if they don't articulate them in this fashion. That's the reality two weeks before the voting, and it isn't going to change in a fortnight.

 

Sure, the Allreds of the world could show up with some poor person who has been dragooned into saying something the media reports as a torpedo aimed at midships, but it won't be real and it will not hit its target.

 

When the country finally got to see Romney on the stage with Obama, it glimpsed what the country saw in 1980 when Ronald Reagan took Jimmy Carter apart: The prospect of a turn-around led by a very skilled, very confident and --to repeat-- a very, very good man.

 

This explains the panic in Chicago and the president's clumsy maneuvers last week and suggest more stunts are on the way Monday night.

 

No matter. 70 million people saw he first debate live, and nearly as many saw the second. People talk. They text and Tweet.

They are already voting for change and there isn't any real likelihood of that trend changing. The Romney/Ryan rally in Daytona Beaach Friday night ended in a huge fireworks display and an enormous crowd pumped up as only winning can do.

 

People sense the change coming, and they are very, very eager for it to arrive, and the prosperity it will herald

 

http://www.hughhewitt.com/blog/g/c2191a08-28f7-439b-8e2b-b10ba63e90ae

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This can't be the the Obama campaign's last ditch surprise. ..............A phony 'deal' with an untrustworthy regime.

 

Even they must know that this wouldn't impress anyone who hasn't already drank their kool-aid............lol

 

Portman apparently on the Sunday news show rounds telling everyone that, once again, the Obama administration is leaking sensitive security info.

 

Kinda clever.

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Gloria AllDread: Mitt Romney once walked into the ladies room by mistake - at least that's what he said at the time according to his Seventh Grade teacher.

 

Supposedly, he advised someone not to get an abortion once.

 

Is that what we've come to in this country ?

 

Even if you are Pro-choice, does the fact that someone counseled another person against ending their pregnancy, some type of dis-qualifier from office ? ?

 

Is that what the once great democrat party has sunk to ?

 

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Supposedly, he advised someone not to get an abortion once.

 

Is that what we've come to in this country ?

 

Even if you are Pro-choice, does the fact that someone counseled another person against ending their pregnancy, some type of dis-qualifier from office ? ?

 

Is that what the once great democrat party has sunk to ?

...and? I don't see the story here.

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October surprise might be different still....

 

I sort of expect him to come out with a loan forgiveness for college grads proposal.

 

THAT, would turn out his base for Nov 7th... :-)

If only he could do that.

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If only he could do that.

 

What do you mean "If.... " ?

 

He couldn't unilaterally, without Congressional approval, institute the Dream Act either now could he??

 

With this POTUS, there is nothing he thinks he can't do...

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What do you mean "If.... " ?

 

He couldn't unilaterally, without Congressional approval, institute the Dream Act either now could he??

 

With this POTUS, there is nothing he thinks he can't do...

This is also false. He is well aware he is not allowed to send forces beyond the Van Allen belt.

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...and? I don't see the story here.

Because Doc, to the Left, talking someone out of an abortion is bad. In the real world, we (ironically) call that "Choice"

 

Is This Gloria Allred's October Surprise?

 

Jim Hoft is only speculating, but he's going by percolating interest from left wing blogs for a particular story

If he's right, it's neither surprise nor October, given that it has been reported on before, to yawns.

 

The big scandal (assuming his guess is right)? Romney, a pro-life representative of a pro-life church, urged a congregant to carry a baby to term, despite the doctor advising her to abort it (based on possible complications from clotting).

 

He regaled me with stories of his sister and her retarded child and what a blessing the child had been to the family,” Sheldon wrote of the incident. “He told me that ‘as your bishop, my concern is with the child.
’”

 

As Bob Ueker said in Major League, about a flyball that was caught in short centerfield: "Reggie, I don't think this one quite has the distance."

 

Or as Colonel Jessup said: "Please tell me you haven't pinned the fates of two men" on crap like this.

http://ace.mu.nu/archives/334102.php

 

 

If Allred’s intention is, in fact, to use these past stories--which date from thirty years ago, and were first used against Romney nearly twenty years ago--there is not much she could add.

 

With her characteristic theatrics, however--which included exposing a client to the risk of deportation in 2010--she might hope to provoke an outraged reaction from the media.

 

It is a good thing the general public has long since stopped paying attention.

 

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Edited by B-Man
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Because Doc, to the Left, talking someone out of an abortion is bad. In the real world, we (ironically) call that "Choice"

Yeah but as a pro-lifer, that should be expected. And If he did this many years ago, it destroys their "he flip-flopped on this issue recently." While ultimately, he gave someone advice that as you said she chose to take: he didn't force her to not get one.

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Wasn't Van Allen Belt a backup QB for the Bills back in the late 90s / early 2000s??

I cannot be certain. I spent most of the 1990s in stasis. But if you are correct, that is an amusing coincidence. The Van Allen Belt might be better known as the Van Allen Radiation Belt, though in reality there is no radiation.

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