OCinBuffalo Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 (edited) http://battlegroundw...-on-november-6/ Look, before you even start , this is a fact-based argument. That doesn't mean it's right. Do I think Romney gets MN? 30% chance at best. But, that beats the hell out of the chance I thought he had 30 days ago. The main reason I posted this is the argument against the D+10 oversample. Obviously. This is far and away the best indictment of these turnout biases that we keep seeing. We can talk about whether MN will go red. But, this post shows, beyond all doubt, that a D+, anything other than 2, over-sample is as ridiculous as it is easily debunked. Also...this guy crushes NBC/Marist for all time: http://battlegroundw...-obama-leading/ And uses Chuck Todd's(MSNBC's own political director) tweets to do it. Now, if your own guy is telling you that the oversample fix is in...then...what? Blame it on FOX News? Is Chuck Todd part of a "vast right wing conspiracy"? Iowa President Obama leads by 9-points (which explains why he’s still campaigning heavily there) Romney has declared victory in NC, and just pulled out his #1 guy there, and most of the NC resources, and sent them all to Ohio...and he is only up by 5. Again, behavior is more telling than polls. If Obama was really up by 9...he'd be long gone form IA, and be spending all his $ and time in VA, NC, and FL. Instead, he's spending all his time in NH, WI, IA and OH...and perhaps even MN and PA. That's playing defense. Boy, aren't those Intrade suckers...who keep citing polls like this...going to be in total shock? Edited October 19, 2012 by OCinBuffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 http://battlegroundw...-on-november-6/ Look, before you even start , this is a fact-based argument. That doesn't mean it's right. Do I think Romney gets MN? 30% chance at best. But, that beats the hell out of the chance I thought he had 30 days ago. The main reason I posted this is the argument against the D+10 oversample. Obviously. This is far and away the best indictment of these turnout biases that we keep seeing. We can talk about whether MN will go red. But, this post shows, beyond all doubt, that a D+, anything other than 2, over-sample is as ridiculous as it is easily debunked. Also...this guy crushes NBC/Marist for all time: http://battlegroundw...-obama-leading/ And uses Chuck Todd's(MSNBC's own political director) tweets to do it. Now, if your own guy is telling you that the oversample fix is in...then...what? Blame it on FOX News? Is Chuck Todd part of a "vast right wing conspiracy"? Romney has declared victory in NC, and just pulled out his #1 guy there, and most of the NC resources, and sent them all to Ohio...and he is only up by 5. Again, behavior is more telling than polls. If Obama was really up by 9...he'd be long gone form IA, and be spending all his $ and time in VA, NC, and FL. Instead, he's spending all his time in NH, WI, IA and OH...and perhaps even MN and PA. That's playing defense. Boy, aren't those Intrade suckers...who keep citing polls like this...going to be in total shock? I mentioned in another thread that New Jersey might be in play for the same reasons. The two most recent polls from RCP has Romney down by only 7 and 8 points and had an oversamplings of D+10 and D+11... http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nj/new_jersey_romney_vs_obama-1912.html This is a state where republican Chris Christie beat out Corzine who had Obama campaigning for him heavily at the time. It was almost as if Obama had a lead weight effect for Corzine. If Obama wins NJ, it will be by less than five points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Minnesota, Jersey, and Pennsylvania are not in play. If Team Romney thinks they are and diverts resources to any of those states they will lose. Team Obama is on it's heals and have set up their Alamo in Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio. North Carolina looks like the first domino to fall. Florida and Virginia appear to be trending Romney as well. Team Romney has the momentum and is on the move but if they let themselves get trapped into overextending, Team Obama may be able to pick off VA or FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Minnesota, Jersey, and Pennsylvania are not in play. If Team Romney thinks they are and diverts resources to any of those states they will lose. Team Obama is on it's heals and have set up their Alamo in Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio. North Carolina looks like the first domino to fall. Florida and Virginia appear to be trending Romney as well. Team Romney has the momentum and is on the move but if they let themselves get trapped into overextending, Team Obama may be able to pick off VA or FL. There's only a couple of weeks left so these would be "surprise" states caught up in a wave type Reagan-like election. These aren't states that are going to be battled over at this late of stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buftex Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 You never know...every once in a while you get a true surprise. I was just reading something earlier where they are predicting that Texas (my state) could become a blue state by the time 2016 elections come along...many Republicans are nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 You never know...every once in a while you get a true surprise. I was just reading something earlier where they are predicting that Texas (my state) could become a blue state by the time 2016 elections come along...many Republicans are nervous. If Texas ever goes blue, Republicans will never win a Presidential election again. California, Texas, New York, Pennsylvania, and Illinois would give the Democrats 162 EV to start. Factor in traditional Democrat states like Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, and Minnesota for another 33 and the Northeast (Maryland to Maine) and the Democrat starts with 258 Electoral Votes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buftex Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 If Texas ever goes blue, Republicans will never win a Presidential election again. California, Texas, New York, Pennsylvania, and Illinois would give the Democrats 162 EV to start. Factor in traditional Democrat states like Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, and Minnesota for another 33 and the Northeast (Maryland to Maine) and the Democrat starts with 258 Electoral Votes Precisely why they need to be kissing Latin ass! It seems to be an issue that Jeb Bush has been having growing concern with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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