/dev/null Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 As of right now, I think Obama still comes out a winner barely. He is still leading in the all important Ohio and I think he will win Iowa. As long as Obama wins Ohio, I do not see him losing. He will pick up either Iowa or Nevada or both. Michigan and Pennsylvania are his no matter what RCP says. Wisconsin probably as well. It looks like he has 271 votes locked up if he gets Ohio. But, a Romney win would not surprise me at this point... Official tally for me: Obama 277-261 I got Romney 263 to Obama 257 with Ohio's 18 deciding the winner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Adams Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 The electoral map still favors Obama. Going off RCP, let's assume that Romney wins the tight race for Florida, as he 100% must do to have a chance. I'd put PA and Michigan into Obama territory, as would probably most here. The brings the electoral count to Romney 235, Obama: 237--each with about 35 votes needed to clinch it up....and most of the remaining states on the map are truly undecided: VA - 13 NH - 4 CO - 9 NV - 6 Iowa- 6 Ohio - 18 WI -10 Obama has a slightly larger lead in Wisconsin, Ohio, Colorado, and Iowa. The others are a dead heat. Obama still has more paths to victory so he's still got the edge. Somehow Romney has to capture Florida and one of the other big prizes. If Romney wins, it will be a nail biter. Obama still has a shot at a landslide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 (edited) The electoral map still favors Obama. Going off RCP, let's assume that Romney wins the tight race for Florida, as he 100% must do to have a chance. I'd put PA and Michigan into Obama territory, as would probably most here. The brings the electoral count to Romney 235, Obama: 237--each with about 35 votes needed to clinch it up....and most of the remaining states on the map are truly undecided: VA - 13 NH - 4 CO - 9 NV - 6 Iowa- 6 Ohio - 18 WI -10 Obama has a slightly larger lead in Wisconsin, Ohio, Colorado, and Iowa. The others are a dead heat. Obama still has more paths to victory so he's still got the edge. Somehow Romney has to capture Florida and one of the other big prizes. If Romney wins, it will be a nail biter. Obama still has a shot at a landslide. Not sure if you're aware but, there was a poll just out that had Romney ahead of Obama in PA by four points (even if it's a right leaning poll that's off by 6 points, he's only down two in PA)... http://twitchy.com/2...mptly-vanishes/ I just looked at two NJ polls that had ridiculous D+10 and D+11 samplings and Romney was still within single digits. If PA is in play then NJ is in play. Although Romney will probably end up losing NJ, but only by a couple of points IMO. That first debate seems to be on track to becoming the biggest game changer in US presidential election history. He has sunk like a rock since that first debate. If anyone wins in a landslide it will be Romney and he's on track to pull it off. Edited October 19, 2012 by 1billsfan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Adams Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 (edited) PA is in play? I doubt it. http://www.realclear...1891.html#polls Edited October 19, 2012 by John Adams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 Not sure if you're aware but, there was a poll just out that had Romney ahead of Obama in PA by four points (even if it's a right leaning poll that's off by 6 points, he's only down two in PA)... http://twitchy.com/2...mptly-vanishes/ Outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 I won't believe any poll #s unless they come straight from RCow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drinkTHEkoolaid Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 I want Romney and think he will win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck_dodgers007 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/19/oct-18-obama-gains-in-forecast-on-resiliency-in-swing-state-polls/#more-36350 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 http://fivethirtyeig...lls/#more-36350 Nice http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/20/oct-19-after-romney-gains-should-obama-concede-florida/ I kind of wish I had followed that blog more closely. Would be interesting to go back and read the last 2 or 3 weeks and watch the statistics evolve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 (edited) Round II Results: Who will win: Romney 14, Obama 14 Who do you want to win: Romney 22, Obama 6 Round I Results: Who will win: Obama 19, Romney 11 Who do you want to win: Romney 17, Obama 13 Oddly enough this poll mirrors the National Polls A shift in allegience from Obama to Romney A shift in the view that Romney may win Tied at the moment Closing thread prior to Romney vs Obama III Edited October 22, 2012 by /dev/null Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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