Do you know who disagrees with you that the Bills season is over?

[CodeMonkey]

see, now someone like THIS is why las vegas is an oasis in the middle of the desert, and the mob has multi million dollar palaces of neon lights and hookers-because people watch a game like last night, over react, and rush to bury a team... when there are literally hundreds of factors that influence prop betting - (not all of which are "legal.")

 

as i said, their record of predictions far outpaces yours.

 

 

 

you make it sound like this is peter king and john clayton sitting at starbucks putting out these lines.

 

everything you said is true, but theyre not ready to risk, what?

 

its a little more important than a blog post they're not willing to risk...

 

theyre not willing to risk the billions and billions of dollars that flow through the city in bets that the bills are a bad team.

 

we whine and cry on here, and for collateral, were willing to risk you tube videos, avatars and signatures.

 

they make cold, calculated moves, and are NOT willing to risk billions of dollars that the bills season is over.

 

this has nothing to do with my "enthusiasm," its just cold, hard numbers.

Like you said below that, they are not ready to risk money this early in the season that the Bills are a bad team.

That is their business and they do not take wild ass risks with their money, which is why they make Billions every year.

Yes it is cold hard numbers, like it is with Vegas always. No emotion, unlike fans of a particular team.

A push bet does not mean Vegas thinks the Bills will make the playoffs. It just means they are not prepared to give big odds that they will not. Surely you must understand this.

Edited October 8, 2012 by CodeMonkey

[Maury Ballstein]

i get the point of your post and i definetly have a gambling "problem"

 

all i am saying is in 1-2 weeks the odds on buff to super bowl will fall................they will fall sharply as the Cardinals abuse us. So the post will lose credibility in a week or two.

 

but i guess til the lines get updated you have a point...........my white flag is out though

[Joe Miner]

So if I bet $5000 on the Bills not making the playoffs, how much would I win?

[ThurmasThoman]

No. Based on what you posted in your original post, they have Buffalo pegged at the 7 seed AT THE VERY BEST! Even vegas doesn't have Buffalo making the playoffs. Epic fail post.

 

the difference in prop betting between the 5/6/7/8 seeds is insignificant and the line moves minutely in one direction or the other as the weeks go by. that is my point. youre right, you got me, right now were a 7 seed, 2 weeks ago we were a 6, next week we might be a 5 or an 8.

 

we are part of the "wild card" mix of prop betting that no one is ready to rule us out or in just yet. a manning injury, a bad week from rothlisberger, a bills dominating win, a norv turner 4th quarter melt down, these things move the lines a little, but CLEARLY vegas has staked

 

oakland/indy/tennessee/cleveland/kansas city/jacksonville as their seasons being over.

 

and has

 

buffalo/cincy/miami/new york/denver/san diego/ pittsburgh as middle of the pack, fighting it out for a wild card

 

and

 

baltimore/new england/houston as being the best in the conference.

 

if this is going over your head (which it seems to be) look at it like this: vegas has looked at miamis schedule (which is similar to ours) and has them conteding for a wildcard, just like us. that must mean that they have NO faith in cincys young quarterback, and cincys schedule.

 

hey, what do you know, didnt the dolphins just beat the bengals yesterday, in a game no one could have predicted, except for the guys out west who have made billions of dollars predicting these things.

 

Like you said below that, they are not ready to risk money this early in the season that the Bills are a bad team.

That is their business and they do not take wild ass risks with their money, which is why they make Billions every year.

Yes it is cold hard numbers, like it is with Vegas always. No emotion, unlike fans of a particular team.

A push bet does not mean Vegas thinks the Bills will make the playoffs. It just means they are not prepared to give big odds that they will not. Surely you must understand this.

 

no i completely agree with you here.

 

las vegas does not think the bills will make the playoffs.

 

but las vegas also does not think the bills WONT make the playoffs.

 

thats the most important thing.

 

a line in the sand has been drawn early in the season in las vegas, and they already think 6 teams are out of it.

 

the buffalo bills are NOT one of those teams.

 

So if I bet $5000 on the Bills not making the playoffs, how much would I win?

 

mmmm idk, depends on where you bet, and what line you got, and what the bet was.

 

as this thread is saying, seems like a 50/50 bet right now, so you would get even money.

 

would you bet 5000$ on a coin flip?

Edited October 8, 2012 by JohnnyGold

[benderbender]

"big whoop, that doesnt mean anything."

[Thisistheyear]

You don't understand how bookmakers determine futures odds. It's not like they take all 16 AFC teams and give them a piece of a pie. If you convert the odds to percentages they don't add up to 100%. Also, futures bets vary wildly from casino to casino and site to site.

 

Anyway, from one optimist to another...the Buffalo Bills quit on themselves the last two weeks. Teams that quit don't make the playoffs.

 

Thanks for playing though.

Edited October 8, 2012 by Thisistheyear

[phillyrich]

Las freaking Vegas.

 

The whining, the crying, the pissing and moaning that the wheels have completely fallen off and the team is 11 games away from becoming the Los Angeles Bills has reached fever pitch here.

 

Much like women in an Aboriginal tribe who have locked into the same menstrual cycle, twobillsdrive.com is an overwhelming display of vaginal and hormonal imbalance.

 

But for the people out west who rig the game, pay off the refs, and pressure Goodell into destroying video tapes that prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that the game is controlled by factors other than blood, sweat and tears from these proud gladiators on the field (see: spygate,) they see the rest of the season playing out like this:

 

In order of odds win the American Football Conference:

1) Texans

2) Patriots

3) Ravens

4) Chargers/Broncos

5/6) Steelers, Chargers/Broncos

7) Buffalo Bills,Miami Dolphins,New York Jets,Cincinnati Bengals

 

So the Vegas money, RIGHT NOW, the morning when most of you woke up ready to call direct tv to cancel your Sunday ticket, has the bills as a not very profitable prop bet to get a wildcard.

 

i repeat: if you go to las vegas and try to place a prop bet at one of the casinos on the Bills getting a 6 seed, you would get essentially a push bet.

 

Meaning Vegas, who's business it is to be right about these things... literally, it is their source of profit... thinks it's a safe bet the Bills will contend for a wild card spot.

 

I want you to think about that for awhile, before you respond with the "big whoop, that doesnt mean anything."

 

Because if you've ever gambled before... you would know... it means EVERYTHING.

 

no offense... actually, i dont care if I offend you... vegas is right about professional football a HELL of a lot more than ANYONE ive ever seen predict ANYTHING 3 months out on this board. If they werent, you would be the billionaire building hotels in the middle of the desert - not them.

 

So... go ahead and flame away, and talk about how bad our defense is, and how my head is up my ass, and on and on and on. Every gambler knows, its the emotional ones who make stupid bets - like bills fans. But the house money is on the Bills to be RIGHT THERE in week 17 for a wild card spot.

 

Hate to point this out, but all that statement says to me is that 11 of the 16 AFC teams will be in contention for the playoffs. Quite frankly, that doesn't say much about the AFC, nor does it change my mind that the Bills are headed towards a disaster.

[tennesseeboy]

Okay Johnny Gold. If you're right and the Bills are a number 7 to 11 team they will be in or just miss the playoffs and end the season with at least 9 wins. I'd love to see them do that, but they are playing like a 4 or 5 win team right now, and they seem to be falling apart whenever there is a little pushback.

 

 

I'm going to have to believe my lying eyes over what some clown in Vegas is selling.

[birdog1960]

you've listed 10 afc teams that vegas "likes" to get to the playoffs with buffalo as one of the 4 least likely. that means vegas currently sees at least 6 teams worse in the afc. since we beat kc and cleveland, there's 2. for the life of me, i can't think of the next 4. at any rate, it's hardly a ringing endorsement.

 

and btw, what odds are they being given to win the sb? would you bet at 1000:1? i wouldn't.

[Ronin]

Wonder what the "vegas odds" will be on the Bills to advance in the playoffs?

 

You don't understand how Vegas odds are formed, do you?

 

It's hardly scientific. in short, it's far more pop-oriented. Put another way, it's done similarly to the way many fans supported Nix, Gailey, Wannstedt, George Cortez (Gailey's choice), now David Lee to replace Cortez to help fix Fitz, etc., with most people simply running on opinions without looking at any facts.

 

As Marx once said, repeat a lie often enough and eventually it becomes the truth. That's how it works in Buffalo. The FO will pony up the next pudding pop of a GM and HC and everyone will fall all over themselves digging the microscopic hints of success from the mound of **** that's sitting in front of them and bolster those as if they were top notch credentials.

 

Meanwhile, all the fans will go "MMMM, Yummy, thank you sir, may we have another!"

 

Then of course it once again eventually becomes wash/rinse/repeat time.

 

That's how Vegas works. Most people research games about as much as anyone here researches blind dates.

 

it's more like a pop-belief more than anything scientific. Kind of like one of those stooge talking heads like Cowher, insists that we're going to win the Super Bowl five games into the season like he did a few years back. That's why Vegas is often easy to beat in sports for those that do their homework.

Edited October 8, 2012 by TaskersGhost

[Since 1972]

You don't understand how Vegas odds are formed, do you?

 

It's hardly scientific. in short, it's far more pop-oriented. Put another way, it's done similarly to the way many fans supported Nix, Gailey, Wannstedt, George Cortez (Gailey's choice), now David Lee to replace Cortez to help fix Fitz, etc., with most people simply running on opinions without looking at any facts.

 

As Marx once said, repeat a lie often enough and eventually it becomes the truth. That's how it works in Buffalo. The FO will pony up the next pudding pop of a GM and HC and everyone will fall all over themselves digging the microscopic hints of success from the mound of **** that's sitting in front of them and bolster those as if they were top notch credentials.

 

Meanwhile, all the fans will go "MMMM, Yummy, thank you sir, may we have another!"

 

Then of course it once again eventually becomes wash/rinse/repeat time.

 

That's how Vegas works. Most people research games about as much as anyone here researches blind dates.

 

it's more like a pop-belief more than anything scientific. Kind of like one of those stooge talking heads like Cowher, insists that we're going to win the Super Bowl five games into the season like he did a few years back. That's why Vegas is often easy to beat in sports for those that do their homework.

 

I'm sorry you had a bad blind date.

[CodeMonkey]

That's why Vegas is often easy to beat in sports for those that do their homework.

I agree with you that if you are going to be a professional gambler that sports betting is the way to go. If, like you say, you put the time in to look closely at the games you are far more likely to find favorable odds that way that in any of the casino games.

 

And as you say it is sometimes more pop-oriented. They need people to bet, so making the odds of the Bills making the playoffs 1:10 for example would discourage anyone (except the Senator maybe ) from making a bet. And without people betting Vegas makes nothing. So if they make it tempting for Bills fans and maybe some others they get the bets. And if the Bills in this case say make the playoffs with a push bet it isn't so bad as Vegas does expect to pay off sometimes. And they will make it up, and then some, when two other push bets go their way.

 

So in the long run Vegas is going to make money and is not in business from making stupid bets, but you can make money as a gambler if you find the right bets to make.

And making assumptions about a teams ability to make the playoffs, for example, based solely on Vegas prop bet odds is not sound in my opinion.

[Fan in Chicago]

 

the buffalo bills are NOT one of those teams.

 

 

 

mmmm idk, depends on where you bet, and what line you got, and what the bet was.

 

as this thread is saying, seems like a 50/50 bet right now, so you would get even money.

 

would you bet 5000$ on a coin flip?

 

No matter what I think of the premise of this post (i.e. sports are rigged) or of the Bills chances of making the playoffs, this is a very very fun thread. The Bills suck, bad. I get it and have a thousand posts that look at every minutiae and come to the same conclusion. This thread, OTOH, offers a different look and a different discussion.

[BuffOrange]

You don't understand how Vegas odds are formed, do you?

 

It's hardly scientific. in short, it's far more pop-oriented....

 

That's why Vegas is often easy to beat in sports for those that do their homework.

 

"I know how odds are formed" guy lecturing everyone & not having a clue how odds are formed, volume 18,476!

 

Ya know whose bets influence the lines? The Vegas wiseguys who do said homework and bet big $.

Ya know whose bets don't influence the lines? Jon in North Tonowanda who bets $50 on road favorites every week.

 

Sports like college basketball in the 1980's were very beatable. The modern day NFL odds are incredibly efficient and hard to beat.

 

I agree with you that if you are going to be a professional gambler that sports betting is the way to go. If, like you say, you put the time in to look closely at the games you are far more likely to find favorable odds that way that in any of the casino games.

 

Poker is way better and it's not close.

Edited October 8, 2012 by BuffOrange

[CodeMonkey]

Poker is way better and it's not close.

In poker you aren't playing against the house, and the house always makes money.

But I get what you are saying.

[Alphadawg7]

Las freaking Vegas.

 

The whining, the crying, the pissing and moaning that the wheels have completely fallen off and the team is 11 games away from becoming the Los Angeles Bills has reached fever pitch here.

 

Much like women in an Aboriginal tribe who have locked into the same menstrual cycle, twobillsdrive.com is an overwhelming display of vaginal and hormonal imbalance.

 

But for the people out west who rig the game, pay off the refs, and pressure Goodell into destroying video tapes that prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that the game is controlled by factors other than blood, sweat and tears from these proud gladiators on the field (see: spygate,) they see the rest of the season playing out like this:

 

In order of odds win the American Football Conference:

1) Texans

2) Patriots

3) Ravens

4) Chargers/Broncos

5/6) Steelers, Chargers/Broncos

7) Buffalo Bills,Miami Dolphins,New York Jets,Cincinnati Bengals

 

So the Vegas money, RIGHT NOW, the morning when most of you woke up ready to call direct tv to cancel your Sunday ticket, has the bills as a not very profitable prop bet to get a wildcard.

 

i repeat: if you go to las vegas and try to place a prop bet at one of the casinos on the Bills getting a 6 seed, you would get essentially a push bet.

 

Meaning Vegas, who's business it is to be right about these things... literally, it is their source of profit... thinks it's a safe bet the Bills will contend for a wild card spot.

 

I want you to think about that for awhile, before you respond with the "big whoop, that doesnt mean anything."

 

Because if you've ever gambled before... you would know... it means EVERYTHING.

 

no offense... actually, i dont care if I offend you... vegas is right about professional football a HELL of a lot more than ANYONE ive ever seen predict ANYTHING 3 months out on this board. If they werent, you would be the billionaire building hotels in the middle of the desert - not them.

 

So... go ahead and flame away, and talk about how bad our defense is, and how my head is up my ass, and on and on and on. Every gambler knows, its the emotional ones who make stupid bets - like bills fans. But the house money is on the Bills to be RIGHT THERE in week 17 for a wild card spot.

 

LMAO...ok, first, its pretty clear you don't actually know anything about prop betting, odds makers, or sports books based on your rant. So let me give you a free lesson into what is really going on.

 

1) A teams odds are NOT going to make a DRASTIC move after a SINGLE weeks outcome. I placed a bet on the BIlls PRIOR to the season and they had about the same odds. Vegas is NOT nearly as reactionary as fans or media because they are not going to swing one way or the other in a drastic fashion because IF THEY ARE WRONG then they just put out massively favorable odds AGAINST the HOUSE.

 

2) As someone already pointed out, based on the odds list, it would put the Bills still ranked in the bottom half of the AFC, surely where we deserve to be.

 

3) Teams like SD a while back have started 0-4 and still made the playoffs. Being 2-3 is still a record where a team can easily contend for a playoff spot. Hell, SEA made it to the playoffs with a LOSING record. So MOST teams at this point are still considered potential wild card teams.

 

4) Buffalo's end of the season schedule has some favorable matchups, so if they can manage to hover around .500 then they have a chance to sneak in...does not mean this team is good...means we may just play teams who are worse.

 

5) NOW PAY ATTENTION BECAUSE THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF WHAT YOU DO NOT UNDERSTAND: Stock Options, Commodity Options, Bets like this, where you essentially wager money in regards to a future outcome, etc all have one value thing in common...a depreciating asset called TIME! TIme creates opportunity and value, and the more of it, the better the odds even when its not likely. As time dwindles, so does the value of said item. You buy a call option with a strike price relatively higher than what the stock is trading on for a reasonable price. As the time passes the value of such call option decreases or increases based on what the real stock price does. If it maintains a similar price, it still affects the strike price. When there is a LOT of time left, those adjustment increments are small, as the time dwindles downs the adjustment price becomes more severe as TIME is a depreciating asset. Bets like this ARE TREATED THE SAME WAY and swings in the odds will be more drastic as the season gets deeper into the season. This also means that when there is a lot of time left, adjustments to the value are minor in comparison because there is STILL TOO MUCH TIME to make any heavy swings either way. And in the case of a sports book, the cardinal rule is NOT to make any irrational sways because on any given week in sports things can change and NOTHING is ever a lock...ever.

 

Bottom line though is that NONE of what you said, nor what I have said has any relevance what so ever to the quality of this football team as we sit right now. Vegas makes odds to encourage gambling, nothing more nothing less. If we are the 8th worst team in the NFL and we play the other 7 worse teams over the next weeks, guess what, the Bills will be slam dunk favorites to win those games...Still does not change the fact that in that scenario the Bills are the 8th worst team in the NFL and the other 24 teams would be favorites against us in every other situation.

 

So, as much as you THINK you have a point, you are absolutely wrong in your assessment as Las Vegas is NOT saying that the Bills are likely to make the playoffs, they are saying that there are a dozen or so teams in the AFC that have a chance to still make the playoffs because it is EARLY in the season and based on that time, they are not going to COMMIT to saying one team WILL or WILL NOT make the playoffs this EARLY in the season.

 

PS: I used CAPITALS simply to emphasize important things, not to yell.

Edited October 8, 2012 by Alphadawg7

[BuffOrange]

In poker you aren't playing against the house

 

Probably not a coincidence that it's easier to win.

[HOUSE]

Its over if Chan Gailey is dumb enough to stick with Ryan Fitzpatrick....

 

So far, it just might happen......

[8-8 Forever?]

Las freaking Vegas.

 

The whining, the crying, the pissing and moaning that the wheels have completely fallen off and the team is 11 games away from becoming the Los Angeles Bills has reached fever pitch here.

 

Much like women in an Aboriginal tribe who have locked into the same menstrual cycle, twobillsdrive.com is an overwhelming display of vaginal and hormonal imbalance.

 

But for the people out west who rig the game, pay off the refs, and pressure Goodell into destroying video tapes that prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that the game is controlled by factors other than blood, sweat and tears from these proud gladiators on the field (see: spygate,) they see the rest of the season playing out like this:

 

In order of odds win the American Football Conference:

1) Texans

2) Patriots

3) Ravens

4) Chargers/Broncos

5/6) Steelers, Chargers/Broncos

7) Buffalo Bills,Miami Dolphins,New York Jets,Cincinnati Bengals

 

So the Vegas money, RIGHT NOW, the morning when most of you woke up ready to call direct tv to cancel your Sunday ticket, has the bills as a not very profitable prop bet to get a wildcard.

 

i repeat: if you go to las vegas and try to place a prop bet at one of the casinos on the Bills getting a 6 seed, you would get essentially a push bet.

 

Meaning Vegas, who's business it is to be right about these things... literally, it is their source of profit... thinks it's a safe bet the Bills will contend for a wild card spot.

 

I want you to think about that for awhile, before you respond with the "big whoop, that doesnt mean anything."

 

Because if you've ever gambled before... you would know... it means EVERYTHING.

 

no offense... actually, i dont care if I offend you... vegas is right about professional football a HELL of a lot more than ANYONE ive ever seen predict ANYTHING 3 months out on this board. If they werent, you would be the billionaire building hotels in the middle of the desert - not them.

 

So... go ahead and flame away, and talk about how bad our defense is, and how my head is up my ass, and on and on and on. Every gambler knows, its the emotional ones who make stupid bets - like bills fans. But the house money is on the Bills to be RIGHT THERE in week 17 for a wild card spot.

IF IF IF we get healthy again at the bye week, I agree. If the lines are decimated for another month, then we will probably lose to the Titans, Texans and Pats and be 2-7 and totally out of it. But if we are healthy and 4-5 after week 10, I like our chances. Those are massive IFs, but that is about what it will take.

[Mr. WEO]

This is a very funny thread. We should all be cheering up because there is still a line on the Bills making the playoffs. Yeah, these guys all know the secrets Wanny and Chan are saving up for Novemeber and a playoff run. lol.

 

Or maybe they are just trying to separate Bills fans from their money. Yes--that's how casinos are created in the desert--by separating suckers from their money, but the majority of the money in any casino is made on the gaming floor--not the sports book.