ThurmasThoman Posted October 8, 2012 Posted October 8, 2012 (edited) Las freaking Vegas. The whining, the crying, the pissing and moaning that the wheels have completely fallen off and the team is 11 games away from becoming the Los Angeles Bills has reached fever pitch here. Much like women in an Aboriginal tribe who have locked into the same menstrual cycle, twobillsdrive.com is an overwhelming display of vaginal and hormonal imbalance. But for the people out west who rig the game, pay off the refs, and pressure Goodell into destroying video tapes that prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that the game is controlled by factors other than blood, sweat and tears from these proud gladiators on the field (see: spygate,) they see the rest of the season playing out like this: In order of odds win the American Football Conference: 1) Texans 2) Patriots 3) Ravens 4) Chargers/Broncos 5/6) Steelers, Chargers/Broncos 7) Buffalo Bills,Miami Dolphins,New York Jets,Cincinnati Bengals So the Vegas money, RIGHT NOW, the morning when most of you woke up ready to call direct tv to cancel your Sunday ticket, has the bills as a not very profitable prop bet to get a wildcard. i repeat: if you go to las vegas and try to place a prop bet at one of the casinos on the Bills getting a 6 seed, you would get essentially a push bet. Meaning Vegas, who's business it is to be right about these things... literally, it is their source of profit... thinks it's a safe bet the Bills will contend for a wild card spot. I want you to think about that for awhile, before you respond with the "big whoop, that doesnt mean anything." Because if you've ever gambled before... you would know... it means EVERYTHING. no offense... actually, i dont care if I offend you... vegas is right about professional football a HELL of a lot more than ANYONE ive ever seen predict ANYTHING 3 months out on this board. If they werent, you would be the billionaire building hotels in the middle of the desert - not them. So... go ahead and flame away, and talk about how bad our defense is, and how my head is up my ass, and on and on and on. Every gambler knows, its the emotional ones who make stupid bets - like bills fans. But the house money is on the Bills to be RIGHT THERE in week 17 for a wild card spot. Edited October 8, 2012 by JohnnyGold
Since 1972 Posted October 8, 2012 Posted October 8, 2012 (edited) Las freaking Vegas. The whining, the crying, the pissing and moaning that the wheels have completely fallen off and the team is 11 games away from becoming the Los Angeles Bills has reached fever pitch here. Much like women in an Aboriginal tribe who have locked into the same menstrual cycle, twobillsdrive.com is an overwhelming display of vaginal and hormonal imbalance. But for the people out west who rig the game, pay off the refs, and pressure Goodell into destroying video tapes that prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that the game is controlled by factors other than blood, sweat and tears from these proud gladiators on the field (see: spygate,) they see the rest of the season playing out like this: In order of odds win the American Football Conference: 1) Texans 2) Patriots 3) Ravens 4) Chargers/Broncos 5/6) Steelers, Chargers/Broncos 7) Buffalo Bills,Miami Dolphins,New York Jets,Cincinnati Bengals So the Vegas money, RIGHT NOW, the morning when most of you woke up ready to call direct tv to cancel your Sunday ticket, has the bills as a not very profitable prop bet to get a wildcard. i repeat: if you go to las vegas and try to place a prop bet at one of the casinos on the Bills getting a 6 seed, you would get essentially a push bet. Meaning Vegas, who's business it is to be right about these things... literally, it is their source of profit... thinks it's a safe bet the Bills will contend for a wild card spot. I want you to think about that for awhile, before you respond with the "big whoop, that doesnt mean anything." Because if you've ever gambled before... you would know... it means EVERYTHING. no offense... actually, i dont care if I offend you... vegas is right about professional football a HELL of a lot more than ANYONE ive ever seen predict ANYTHING 3 months out on this board. If they werent, you would be the billionaire building hotels in the middle of the desert - not them. So... go ahead and flame away, and talk about how bad our defense is, and how my head is up my ass, and on and on and on. Every gambler knows, its the emotional ones who make stupid bets - like bills fans. But the house money is on the Bills to be RIGHT THERE in week 17 for a wild card spot. Wonder what the "vegas odds" will be on the Bills to advance in the playoffs? Edited October 8, 2012 by kidprison
billsfan72 Posted October 8, 2012 Posted October 8, 2012 (edited) With that list, could it also mean their the 10th best team out of 16 in the Conference? Edited October 8, 2012 by billsfan72
Bronc24 Posted October 8, 2012 Posted October 8, 2012 Las freaking Vegas. The whining, the crying, the pissing and moaning that the wheels have completely fallen off and the team is 11 games away from becoming the Los Angeles Bills has reached fever pitch here. Much like women in an Aboriginal tribe who have locked into the same menstrual cycle, twobillsdrive.com is an overwhelming display of vaginal and hormonal imbalance. But for the people out west who rig the game, pay off the refs, and pressure Goodell into destroying video tapes that prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that the game is controlled by factors other than blood, sweat and tears from these proud gladiators on the field (see: spygate,) they see the rest of the season playing out like this: In order of odds win the American Football Conference: 1) Texans 2) Patriots 3) Ravens 4) Chargers/Broncos 5/6) Steelers, Chargers/Broncos 7) Buffalo Bills,Miami Dolphins,New York Jets,Cincinnati Bengals So the Vegas money, RIGHT NOW, the morning when most of you woke up ready to call direct tv to cancel your Sunday ticket, has the bills as a not very profitable prop bet to get a wildcard. i repeat: if you go to las vegas and try to place a prop bet at one of the casinos on the Bills getting a 6 seed, you would get essentially a push bet. Meaning Vegas, who's business it is to be right about these things... literally, it is their source of profit... thinks it's a safe bet the Bills will contend for a wild card spot. I want you to think about that for awhile, before you respond with the "big whoop, that doesnt mean anything." Because if you've ever gambled before... you would know... it means EVERYTHING. no offense... actually, i dont care if I offend you... vegas is right about professional football a HELL of a lot more than ANYONE ive ever seen predict ANYTHING 3 months out on this board. If they werent, you would be the billionaire building hotels in the middle of the desert - not them. So... go ahead and flame away, and talk about how bad our defense is, and how my head is up my ass, and on and on and on. Every gambler knows, its the emotional ones who make stupid bets - like bills fans. But the house money is on the Bills to be RIGHT THERE in week 17 for a wild card spot. Just pay me my $50 when they don't make the playoffs.
ThurmasThoman Posted October 8, 2012 Author Posted October 8, 2012 It's called a suckers bet There are no "sucker" bets when you are making a prop bet. That is a term that gamblers use with each other disparagingly. Las Vegas doesn't care about anything besides how the public is betting. They move the lines accordingly, to encourage people to place bets, but also as a reflection of their "knowledge" of the situations, and what they feel is a safe line for them, in terms of making a profit. For instance, this morning, Colts fans are waking up in a state of euphoria, thinking their team is going to make a run at the super bowl, and they are set forever. Well, maybe. But for this season, vegas has them as twice as unlikely as the Bills to win the AFC... and that's AFTER yesterdays games. Now, if EVERYONE puts money on the Colts this week to win the conference, that line could come back... say, from 100-1 odds to 75 to-1. Right now the Bills are at 50-1, the Patriots are at 2-1. With that list, could it also mean their the 10th best team out of 16 in the Conference? It's not power rankings, it's a vegas prop bet. Let's put this another way: If everyone on twobillsdrive.com said, let's pool our money, and bet that the bills DONT make the playoffs - it would be a very risky bet, and pay out pretty handsomely. Now, if we took that money and said, "lets make a bet that the browns/titans/raiders/chiefs/jaguars/colts" DONT make the playoffs, it would pay out peanuts... because Vegas is ruling them out of the playoffs. This isnt a discussion on the strengths of the Buffalo Bills football club: its an observation that house money on vegas is on the Bills contending for a wild card spot... ELEVEN weeks down the road... and Bills fans that are ready to jump off a bridge this morning need to cheer up. its a long season.
FanofFredJackson Posted October 8, 2012 Posted October 8, 2012 the house money is on the Bills to be RIGHT THERE in week 17 for a wild card spot. HaHaHaHa - Best laugh of the day
ThurmasThoman Posted October 8, 2012 Author Posted October 8, 2012 Wonder what the "vegas odds" will be on the Bills to advance in the playoffs? In this hypothetical situation, it would depend what the matchup was, and where it was played. There are so many variables, but... If we were playing at the Patriots, them as the 4 us as the 6, I would imagine the line would be 4.5 in the pats favor, because it's a divisional game, and vegas hates divisional games in the playoffs. if we were at the texans, i bet it would be closer to an 8 or a 9, because historically, good teams do better against the bills with more tape on fitzy and more knowledge of gaileys "tricks" if it was at the broncos/ravens/chargers/steelers i would reckon the line would be somewhere between 5 and 7, because we dont play them much, if ever, have played each of those teams close in the last year or 2, and home teams always have about that line in a wild card weekend.
CodeMonkey Posted October 8, 2012 Posted October 8, 2012 All this means is that Vegas is not ready to risk that the Bills, particularly the defense, is really as bad as they have been showing this season. It is early in the season and Vegas, unlike gamblers, don't take big risks. They will wait until they are sure before they sweeten the pot with better prop odds. It is not that they think the Bills are a good bet to make the playoffs, they just aren't prepared to risk that the still could, yet. I love your enthusiasm by the way.
ThurmasThoman Posted October 8, 2012 Author Posted October 8, 2012 HaHaHaHa - Best laugh of the day see, now someone like THIS is why las vegas is an oasis in the middle of the desert, and the mob has multi million dollar palaces of neon lights and hookers-because people watch a game like last night, over react, and rush to bury a team... when there are literally hundreds of factors that influence prop betting - (not all of which are "legal.") as i said, their record of predictions far outpaces yours. All this means is that Vegas is not ready to risk that the Bills, particularly the defense, is really as bad as they have been showing this season. It is early in the season and Vegas, unlike gamblers, don't take big risks. They will wait until they are sure before they sweeten the pot with better prop odds. It is not that they think the Bills are a good bet to make the playoffs, they just aren't prepared to risk that the still could, yet. I love your enthusiasm by the way. you make it sound like this is peter king and john clayton sitting at starbucks putting out these lines. everything you said is true, but theyre not ready to risk, what? its a little more important than a blog post they're not willing to risk... theyre not willing to risk the billions and billions of dollars that flow through the city in bets that the bills are a bad team. we whine and cry on here, and for collateral, were willing to risk you tube videos, avatars and signatures. they make cold, calculated moves, and are NOT willing to risk billions of dollars that the bills season is over. this has nothing to do with my "enthusiasm," its just cold, hard numbers.
Since 1972 Posted October 8, 2012 Posted October 8, 2012 In this hypothetical situation, it would depend what the matchup was, and where it was played. There are so many variables, but... If we were playing at the Patriots, them as the 4 us as the 6, I would imagine the line would be 4.5 in the pats favor, because it's a divisional game, and vegas hates divisional games in the playoffs. if we were at the texans, i bet it would be closer to an 8 or a 9, because historically, good teams do better against the bills with more tape on fitzy and more knowledge of gaileys "tricks" if it was at the broncos/ravens/chargers/steelers i would reckon the line would be somewhere between 5 and 7, because we dont play them much, if ever, have played each of those teams close in the last year or 2, and home teams always have about that line in a wild card weekend. How many times does one need to see badly thrown balls and what are these "tricks" you speak of?
Maury Ballstein Posted October 8, 2012 Posted October 8, 2012 (edited) So you take that bet then johnny.........we will take up a plate for you after you lose your house betting on Buffalo every week. After the blowout loss to the Cardinals next week they will start to fall off of Vegas's boards. **also playoff teams have this position known as "quarterback", they are a rare species in WNY** stick a fork in these bums Edited October 8, 2012 by Ryan L Billz
Rubes Posted October 8, 2012 Posted October 8, 2012 I, for one, appreciate the perspective. I still don't think they have a snowball's chance in hell of making the playoffs, but what the hell do I know? I thought the defensive line was going to be an unstoppable force.
The Voice of Truth Posted October 8, 2012 Posted October 8, 2012 Upon reading this, I am flying to Vegas STAT to put my life savings on the Bills not making the playoffs hahaha
ThurmasThoman Posted October 8, 2012 Author Posted October 8, 2012 So you take that bet then johnny.........we will take up a plate for you after you lose your house betting on Buffalo every week. After the blowout loss to the Cardinals next week they will start to fall off of Vegas's boards. it has nothing to do with betting on Buffalo every week. man. i think you guys need to each put 100$ on sportsbook.com and gamble for a year, and then we could have this discussion. we might lose next week. we might lose our next 3, who knows. this is a PROP bet. a FUTURE bet. this is for something 3 months out. it has stayed relatively close to this line for 2 months now. my point is the dichotomy between what this board is like this morning, and what vegas is like. its almost like... this board is over reacting to a loss against a far superior team... and las vegas has had us pegged as a 9-7 6 seed for 3 or 4 months now, BASED ON OUR LATE SEASON SCHEDULE... and losses like last week, this week, and maybe next week are predicted... and the line is staying at and around us on the bubble to... wait for it... encourage people like YOU to bet on them missing the playoffs... so las vegas casinos can... wait for it... MAKE MONEY.
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted October 8, 2012 Posted October 8, 2012 So what youre saying is the nfl is rigged and in line with the house bets they will have "help" contending for wild cards, or based on what we all saw we can all make big money betting they dont make the playoffs?
Maury Ballstein Posted October 8, 2012 Posted October 8, 2012 cool story johnny....ive won and lost plenty on NFL........the Bills Stink and betting on them to make playoffs is dumb IMO i get your story about how vegas is always right.......but the bills forecast will change to crap soon.......take it now if you like it youll have money riding on thigpen soon.......thats funny
BuffaloBillsForever Posted October 8, 2012 Posted October 8, 2012 it has nothing to do with betting on Buffalo every week. man. i think you guys need to each put 100$ on sportsbook.com and gamble for a year, and then we could have this discussion. we might lose next week. we might lose our next 3, who knows. this is a PROP bet. a FUTURE bet. this is for something 3 months out. it has stayed relatively close to this line for 2 months now. my point is the dichotomy between what this board is like this morning, and what vegas is like. its almost like... this board is over reacting to a loss against a far superior team... and las vegas has had us pegged as a 9-7 6 seed for 3 or 4 months now, BASED ON OUR LATE SEASON SCHEDULE... and losses like last week, this week, and maybe next week are predicted... and the line is staying at and around us on the bubble to... wait for it... encourage people like YOU to bet on them missing the playoffs... so las vegas casinos can... wait for it... MAKE MONEY. No. Based on what you posted in your original post, they have Buffalo pegged at the 7 seed AT THE VERY BEST! Even vegas doesn't have Buffalo making the playoffs. Epic fail post.
ThurmasThoman Posted October 8, 2012 Author Posted October 8, 2012 So what youre saying is the nfl is rigged and in line with the house bets they will have "help" contending for wild cards, or based on what we all saw we can all make big money betting they dont make the playoffs? this is a lot of questions that will take a long time to answer. I just assumed that everyone had a gambling problem like me - im wrong. lets tackle these one by one. is the nfl rigged? yes. every major sport in the world is rigged. its just part of the nature of the beast. people try to separate the action on the field from the reality of the situation, for good reason. sports are fun, and we dont want to accept the true nature of what were seeing. but if sports were random, there wouldnt be an oasis in the middle of the desert, run by the mob, funded by "predicting" outcomes of these contests. look at the nba refs, look at spygate. las vegas sets a line, all you have to do is get to one quarterback, one coach, one ref, and you can change the outcome. its just how it is. it is in the best interest of everyone involved to downplay this influence, but it exists. if you dont think it is, i got a prop bet for whats written on the ceiling above your head to make with you. and yes, you could make DECENT money betting that the bills dont make the playoffs. thats the whole point of this thread. we, as posters, have a knowledge base valued at = nothing. las vegas, as a town, has a knowledge abse valued at = billions. we, as posters, think the bills are terrible and wont make the playoffs. las vegas, as oddmakers, disagrees, and thinks the bills are essentially a push bet for a 6 seed. you could take your intimate knowledge that the bills are the worst team in professional football, and bet on them to not make the playoffs. las vegas is saying, with an equity of decades of line setting, that they disagree. THAT is the point of this thread.
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