Orton's Arm Posted October 11, 2012 Posted October 11, 2012 I am confidently saying that Dalton is going to be and is now a better qb than Fitz simply because he is more accurate and has a better arm. Whether Dalton is going to be a top ten qb is very debateable. But I will certainly take a top half ranked qb over a qb that is rated in the bottom 2-4. In my opinion Dalton is going to get better as he gains experience. Fitz is not going to develop beyond what he is now because he is not going to lose his limitations. I completely agree with your Dalton versus Fitz comparison. But suppose--for the sake of argument--that Buddy takes a significantly better QB than Dalton in the upcoming draft. A draft selection like that would justify a lot of the other actions Buddy has taken, or failed to take as the case may be. (Including his failure to take Dalton himself.) For Buddy, the downside to getting a real QB is that it would make his decision to go with Dareus over A.J. Green look worse than it already does. The upside to getting a real QB is that Buddy gets to keep his job.
JohnC Posted October 11, 2012 Posted October 11, 2012 I completely agree with your Dalton versus Fitz comparison. But suppose--for the sake of argument--that Buddy takes a significantly better QB than Dalton in the upcoming draft. A draft selection like that would justify a lot of the other actions Buddy has taken, or failed to take as the case may be. (Including his failure to take Dalton himself.) For Buddy, the downside to getting a real QB is that it would make his decision to go with Dareus over A.J. Green look worse than it already does. The upside to getting a real QB is that Buddy gets to keep his job. The problem with your scenario of waiting for the exceptional prospect is that there are no guarantees that when your turn comes to draft this next year or the next ten years that you will be in position to take a Luck or Griffin III caliber qb. Do you keep your team at a level of being non-competitive while waiting for something that might not materialize? Who is not to say that Dalton might develop into a Brees type qb? He is smart, accurate passer and a good leader. Aren't those qualities you want from your franchise qb? If you will only date an Angelina Jolie type girl then you will not be dating very much. I understand what Buddy Nix was thinking. He believed that Fitz was an adequate qb who would buy him time to bolster the roster before addressing the qb position. He grossly miscalculated. Fitz is not good enough to allow this team to be serious. There will be spurts will he will shine. But in the end he will prove to be what he really is: mediocre.
Sisyphean Bills Posted October 11, 2012 Posted October 11, 2012 The problem with your scenario of waiting for the exceptional prospect is that there are no guarantees that when your turn comes to draft this next year or the next ten years that you will be in position to take a Luck or Griffin III caliber qb. Do you keep your team at a level of being non-competitive while waiting for something that might not materialize? Who is not to say that Dalton might develop into a Brees type qb? He is smart, accurate passer and a good leader. Aren't those qualities you want from your franchise qb? If you will only date an Angelina Jolie type girl then you will not be dating very much. I understand what Buddy Nix was thinking. He believed that Fitz was an adequate qb who would buy him time to bolster the roster before addressing the qb position. He grossly miscalculated. Fitz is not good enough to allow this team to be serious. There will be spurts will he will shine. But in the end he will prove to be what he really is: mediocre. I'd take it a step further than that. After all, Nix re-signed Fitzpicks to an extension. I'd say that Gailey thought, and may still think, that Fitzpicks can be the starter. That he can mold him into a viable NFL starter that he can win with. Nix, for his part, takes input from the coaching staff on what they feel are the priorities. If you recall, Nix said coming into this job that he felt the Bills already had talent at the position but it was being held back by other factors. It wasn't until Trent Edwards jogged out of bounds on the last play of the game (surrendered) instead of slinging the ball down the field that it dawned on Gailey that Trent had problems that he couldn't fix. Another problem with biding your time and waiting for the draft goose to lay its lucky golden egg is one of credibility. How long does it take for the average franchise QB to fall out of the sky on one's head? How often has that happened in Buffalo over the 50+ years the team has been in business? The point being that in the meantime, when you are diddling around waiting and being patient, everyone else sees teams ebb and flow and take risks, some of which do make them better. To be somewhat fair to Gailey, Jim Harbaugh is showing that it is possible to turn a team around without replacing your QB. However, while Alex Smith has struggled heavily, he does possess some talent, enough to have been a #1 overall draft pick. Further, Harbaugh took the roster he was given and designed to its strengths. Honestly, the Bills and 49ers had been in a similar cycle for quite some time, but the 49ers have made a strong ascending move the last 2 years, whereas the Bills appear to be sinking ever lower in the waves.
JohnC Posted October 11, 2012 Posted October 11, 2012 I'd take it a step further than that. After all, Nix re-signed Fitzpicks to an extension. I'd say that Gailey thought, and may still think, that Fitzpicks can be the starter. That he can mold him into a viable NFL starter that he can win with. Nix, for his part, takes input from the coaching staff on what they feel are the priorities. If you recall, Nix said coming into this job that he felt the Bills already had talent at the position but it was being held back by other factors. It wasn't until Trent Edwards jogged out of bounds on the last play of the game (surrendered) instead of slinging the ball down the field that it dawned on Gailey that Trent had problems that he couldn't fix. Another problem with biding your time and waiting for the draft goose to lay its lucky golden egg is one of credibility. How long does it take for the average franchise QB to fall out of the sky on one's head? How often has that happened in Buffalo over the 50+ years the team has been in business? The point being that in the meantime, when you are diddling around waiting and being patient, everyone else sees teams ebb and flow and take risks, some of which do make them better. To be somewhat fair to Gailey, Jim Harbaugh is showing that it is possible to turn a team around without replacing your QB. However, while Alex Smith has struggled heavily, he does possess some talent, enough to have been a #1 overall draft pick. Further, Harbaugh took the roster he was given and designed to its strengths. Honestly, the Bills and 49ers had been in a similar cycle for quite some time, but the 49ers have made a strong ascending move the last 2 years, whereas the Bills appear to be sinking ever lower in the waves. On thie qb issue you and I are in sync. But the real issue has little to do with individual player issues. It can be reduced to organizational ineptitude. It has been going on for a very long time. As an example whatever limitations Fitz has are limitations that he has since he has been in the league. You don't have to be a genius scout to recognize that he lacks accuracy and arm strength. That hasn't changed and will never change. Having superlative intangibles will only get you so far in a profession that is driven by talent. My point is that Nix and Gailey made a disasterous miscalculation in not drafting a quality qb prospect when they had the opportunity. Not taking advantage of those glaring opportunities continue to not only hold this franchise down but sets it back. Instead of adding assets we need to redress mistakes that have been made in the past. It certainly is much more efficient to go up an up escalator than to walk up a down escalator. The problem I have with Gailey is that he has a tendency to try to outsmart everyone else when it would be better to simplify your approach. That is what Harbaugh is doing. As you noted Harbaugh took the personnel and devised an approach that suited their skill set. They aren't fooling the opposition. They have a good defense and a good OL. They are emphasizing their strengths and minimizing their weaknessess. Alex Smith is immensely more talented than Fitz because he is an accurate passer. He is not a mad-bomber type qb. The passing game that is designed for Smith emphasizes the short and medium game. In other words it suits his skill sets. I don't want to overkill the Dalton issue. But a ragged organization such as the Bengals seized the opportunity to draft a franchise qb because the Bills took a CB instead of selecting the qb who would now be our starting qb. Look at the results for the Bengals; then look at the results for the Bills. It is the same pathetic storyline of stupidity extended. It's very frustrating.
Orton's Arm Posted October 11, 2012 Posted October 11, 2012 The problem with your scenario of waiting for the exceptional prospect is that there are no guarantees that when your turn comes to draft this next year or the next ten years that you will be in position to take a Luck or Griffin III caliber qb. Do you keep your team at a level of being non-competitive while waiting for something that might not materialize? Who is not to say that Dalton might develop into a Brees type qb? He is smart, accurate passer and a good leader. Aren't those qualities you want from your franchise qb? If you will only date an Angelina Jolie type girl then you will not be dating very much. I understand what Buddy Nix was thinking. He believed that Fitz was an adequate qb who would buy him time to bolster the roster before addressing the qb position. He grossly miscalculated. Fitz is not good enough to allow this team to be serious. There will be spurts will he will shine. But in the end he will prove to be what he really is: mediocre. I agree it's possible that Dalton will become a franchise QB. If he does, Nix will look foolish for having passed on him. Many other teams will look foolish for having passed on him as well: every team in the league passed on him at least once. That being said, Dalton represents the general category of QB Nix should be taking: a good, accurate QB, and someone who'd done a good job as a pocket passer at the college level. The more QBs like that which you draft, the more chances you give yourself for success. > The problem with your scenario of waiting for the exceptional prospect is that there are no guarantees > that when your turn comes to draft this next year or the next ten years that you will be in position to take a Luck or Griffin III caliber qb. Agreed. It wouldn't be much of an exaggeration to say that Nix is betting his job on the quality of the upcoming QB class. It's a high risk move. > If you will only date an Angelina Jolie type girl then you will not be dating very much. True. But if you want a QB who can take you to the big dance, a Reese Witherspoon or a Gwenneth Paltrow is much more likely to get you there than a Roseanne Barr.
Fan in Chicago Posted October 11, 2012 Posted October 11, 2012 I don't want to overkill the Dalton issue. But a ragged organization such as the Bengals seized the opportunity to draft a franchise qb because the Bills took a CB instead of selecting the qb who would now be our starting qb. Look at the results for the Bengals; then look at the results for the Bills. It is the same pathetic storyline of stupidity extended. It's very frustrating. You are obviously quite upset as am I. If it helps, here is a bit of hope. Since about the time Ben Roethlisberger was drafted, the concept of babying your newly drafted QB seems to have gone out the window. High picks and even a third rounder such as Russell Wilson start in their rookie season and achieve moderate success. Ben R took a ready Steelers team to the playoffs, Cam Newton had a terrific rookie season, RG III and Luck both seem to be on the right path and not being a liability to their teams. Yes, you can point to a Gabbert and feel hopeless but I think there is more evidence in favor of a successful rookie QB than not. I said in an earlier post that Nix should have drafted a QB last year but it is not quite as hopeless for next season unless he gets too cute and sticks stubbornly to his BPA policy to draft some other position. I think even if there is not a QB who could be considered a BPA, Nix should do a mini 'reach' and pick the QB.
Orton's Arm Posted October 11, 2012 Posted October 11, 2012 You are obviously quite upset as am I. If it helps, here is a bit of hope. Since about the time Ben Roethlisberger was drafted, the concept of babying your newly drafted QB seems to have gone out the window. High picks and even a third rounder such as Russell Wilson start in their rookie season and achieve moderate success. Ben R took a ready Steelers team to the playoffs, Cam Newton had a terrific rookie season, RG III and Luck both seem to be on the right path and not being a liability to their teams. Yes, you can point to a Gabbert and feel hopeless but I think there is more evidence in favor of a successful rookie QB than not. I said in an earlier post that Nix should have drafted a QB last year but it is not quite as hopeless for next season unless he gets too cute and sticks stubbornly to his BPA policy to draft some other position. I think even if there is not a QB who could be considered a BPA, Nix should do a mini 'reach' and pick the QB. Let's say (hypothetically speaking) that QBs will be taken 1st, 3rd, 7th, 20th, and 25th overall in the upcoming draft. Let's also say that the Bills get the 12th overall pick. They could use that 12th overall pick to take the guy who would otherwise have gone 20th overall (the mini-reach you described). Or they could trade up for the guy scheduled to go 7th overall. In general, I would prefer trading up to the mini reach.
Fan in Chicago Posted October 11, 2012 Posted October 11, 2012 Let's say (hypothetically speaking) that QBs will be taken 1st, 3rd, 7th, 20th, and 25th overall in the upcoming draft. Let's also say that the Bills get the 12th overall pick. They could use that 12th overall pick to take the guy who would otherwise have gone 20th overall (the mini-reach you described). Or they could trade up for the guy scheduled to go 7th overall. In general, I would prefer trading up to the mini reach. I would agree as well with that logic. I doubt we will pull a Cordy Glenn and get a guy at #12 who was supposed to go at #7. Just get THE guy and move this franchise forward. And, Nix better not blow that choice else we will be set back for years more.
JohnC Posted October 11, 2012 Posted October 11, 2012 You are obviously quite upset as am I. If it helps, here is a bit of hope. Upset is not the right way to describe my attitude with respect to the ownership and the franchise in general. My posts in general reflect the caliber of management of the franchise more than any specific player transaction. The reality, that I have know for a very long time, is that the Bills are a very mediocre organization floundering in a system designed for parity. It isn't so much an issue of $$$$ as it is an issue of competency. The Bills have existed for more than a half century. Their winning record over this time is less than 50%. That should surprise no one. The main problem is a management issue more than a player issue.
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