Jaws rates Fitz #30 of 32 Starting NFL QBs

[truth on hold]

Reality he should be no higher than 31. To put him ahead of 2 rookies with their unknown but much higher potential is flawed. Unless theyre being called busts which of course 4 gsmes into their careers way way too early. Neither browns nor sea turtles would be interested in a straight up trade for Fitz. The only potential qb that could keep him out last place is Cassel. Its a coin toss between them.

And when you're that low it likely means there are backups better. Some that come to mind jason Campbell , colt McCoy, Skelton, girard, matt Flynn, tebow, hasselback, Orton

Edited October 7, 2012 by Joe_the_6_pack

[FreakPop]

Reality he should be no higher than 31. To put him ahead of 2 rookies with their unknown but much higher potential is flawed. Unless theyre being called busts which of course 4 gsmes into their careers way way too early. Neither browns nor sea turtles would be interested in a straight up trade for Fitz. The only potential qb that could keep him out last place is Cassel. Its a coin toss between them.

And when you're that low it likely means there are backups better. Some that come to mind jason Campbell , colt McCoy, Skelton, girard, matt Flynn, tebow, hasselback, Orton

 

Now, that's funny!

[Rob's House]

Fitz's biggest problem is his arm strength. He can dissect the play and find the go to receiver as often as most of the best; he just doesn't have the arm to rifle it in there, and because of that he has to overcompensate which makes his passes inaccurate.

 

His TD:INT #s don't mean much. A bunch of the TDs are in garbage time and a lot of the ints are meaningless (like that one Sunday where he was intercepted 35 yards down field - It's essentially the same result as a punt.) What concerns me is his inability to hook up cleanly on deep balls and his tendency to miss open receivers when the window tightens.

 

If we had a solid defense, like we thought we were supposed to have this year, I have no doubt he could lead the team to the playoffs. But with this sad sorry crowd we'd need a QB of Favrian abilities to carry the team on his shoulders if we're to see the post-season, and no matter how well he plays I doubt Fitz will ever have the arm for that.

Edited October 7, 2012 by Rob's House

[Hapless Bills Fan]

> But...but...but...Fitz has 7.4 YPA (15th in the league) and that's the most important QB statistic. Where's Edward's Arm when ya need him?

 

Right here!

 

Yes, his YPA is up for the year. But the underlying problem (his lack of accuracy) is still there. One would have to do some number crunching to determine why his YPA stat for the year does not correctly illuminate his lack of accuracy. Maybe the high YPA is because his receivers are giving him a lot of YAC yards. Maybe it's some other factor.

 

Unless he improves his accuracy, I would expect his YPA for the season to be significantly lower than it is right now.

 

Well howdy!

 

I agree with you that Fitz YPA right now reflect quite a bit of YAC by his WR. The thing is, that's true for a lot of other QB as well, which is why I feel YPA need to be taken with a grain of salt as a QB metric (take a look - there are a number of guys with high ypa right now who will make you go "hmmmm"). If yards in the air were more commonly available, that might address the valid issues you raise.

 

> My $0.02, Fitz is a middle-of-the-pack QB until he proves otherwise

 

One of the reasons why the above is difficult to quantify is because Fitz is better than most NFL QBs at some aspects of the game--such as making quick, good decisions. He's worse than most QBs at other things--such as throwing the ball accurately. A lot of where you rank him depends on how much you value good decision-making versus throwing accuracy. We can get caught up in a four page debate about how our inadequate quarterback stacks up to other teams' inaccurate quarterbacks. Or we can come to a consensus that the Bills will not win a Super Bowl with Fitz under center.

 

This latter may be where we agree to disagree. I think there are coaches in the NFL who could easily win a superbowl with Fitz under center, and I'm afraid that Gailey and Wannstache are not among them. See: Alex Smith prior to Harbaugh. I think the principal problem with Fitz is he's a game-manager QB being asked to run an offense modeled after the top teams in the league. And he can't, I grant you that, but when one looks at the championship games (not just SB) the last two years, it's easy to see it's not always those top offensive teams that make it, or win if they make it.

[NoSaint]

So leading the league in TDs doesn't mean anything?

 

By itself? Not really.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

By itself? Not really.

 

I think it means your defense is scraping the bottom of the league and your team needs the points

There's something to be said for NOT leading the league in INTs, either

[Alphadawg7]

He can dissect the play and find the go to receiver as often as most of the best

 

This is simply not true and never was. It's a massive myth much like the Trent Edwards intelligence myth or pocket presence myth. He is consistently very late on his reads hence the problem with is arm strength. He frequently sees WR's ONLY once they are open which means by the time the ball gets there its too late and they are no longer open. He does not see the field with any anticipation and lacks the arm strength to make up for it.

[FreakPop]

This is simply not true and never was. It's a massive myth much like the Trent Edwards intelligence myth or pocket presence myth. He is consistently very late on his reads hence the problem with is arm strength. He frequently sees WR's ONLY once they are open which means by the time the ball gets there its too late and they are no longer open. He does not see the field with any anticipation and lacks the arm strength to make up for it.

 

Again, Alpha has spoken so it must be true!

[K-9]

This is simply not true and never was. It's a massive myth much like the Trent Edwards intelligence myth or pocket presence myth. He is consistently very late on his reads hence the problem with is arm strength. He frequently sees WR's ONLY once they are open which means by the time the ball gets there its too late and they are no longer open. He does not see the field with any anticipation and lacks the arm strength to make up for it.

 

Now I know why you played on the defensive side of the ball in college. The only thing I can agree with here is that he lacks the superior arm strength to fit the rock into tight windows and the accuracy to be more consistent, regardless.

 

As to the rest of what you're saying, it's like you're watching completely different games.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Orton's Arm]

Well howdy!

 

I agree with you that Fitz YPA right now reflect quite a bit of YAC by his WR. The thing is, that's true for a lot of other QB as well, which is why I feel YPA need to be taken with a grain of salt as a QB metric (take a look - there are a number of guys with high ypa right now who will make you go "hmmmm"). If yards in the air were more commonly available, that might address the valid issues you raise.

 

 

 

This latter may be where we agree to disagree. I think there are coaches in the NFL who could easily win a superbowl with Fitz under center, and I'm afraid that Gailey and Wannstache are not among them. See: Alex Smith prior to Harbaugh. I think the principal problem with Fitz is he's a game-manager QB being asked to run an offense modeled after the top teams in the league. And he can't, I grant you that, but when one looks at the championship games (not just SB) the last two years, it's easy to see it's not always those top offensive teams that make it, or win if they make it.

I agree that yards per attempt isn't always perfect. Rob Johnson's career YPA significantly overstates the value of his accomplishments, for example, because YPA does not take sacks into account; and therefore does not reflect the fact he was a sack waiting to happen. YPA is a good starting point for evaluating QBs. But then you have to take a closer look, to see whether YPA is understating or overstating the quality of that QB's play.

 

> But when one looks at the championship games (not just SB) the last two years, it's easy to see it's

> not always those top offensive teams that make it, or win if they make it.

 

Guys like Alex Smith and Joe Flacco are significantly better QBs than Fitzpatrick. But neither Smith nor Flacco are franchise QBs. If you have a solid QB like Smith or Flacco, and if you build a very good, complete team around him, you can go a long way. But the deeper you go into the postseason, the more likely you are to encounter the most feared category of opponent. The kind of opponent most to be feared is a team which has a franchise QB and a good, complete team to go with him. A guy like Eli Manning or Tom Brady changes the equation.

 

You could point out that there have been times when teams have won the Super Bowl without having had a franchise QB. The Ravens of 2000 come to mind, as do the Bucs of 2002. The Ravens had one of the three best defenses in NFL history. Another reason why they won was their great OL; led by a Hall of Fame-level LT in Jon Ogden. They also had Jamal Lewis at RB and a Pro Bowl TE in Shannon Sharpe. But another reason why that team won was because of the comparative weakness of their postseason opponents. Not once in the postseason did they encounter the most feared category of opponent: a complete team with a franchise QB. Oddly enough, only one of their postseason opponents (the Raiders) had a franchise-level QB; and Rich Gannon was knocked out of the game at the end of the first half. Their opponent in the Super Bowl--the Kerry Collins-led Giants--was a much weaker team than the Eli Manning-led Giants team which beat the Patriots. Similarly, the Tampa Bay Bucs did not face any franchise QBs in the postseason leading up to their postseason win; again except for Rich Gannon in the Super Bowl. (I'm referring to Gannon as a franchise QB not because he had a franchise career--he didn't--but because he played at a franchise level later in his career.)

 

Nine of the last ten Super Bowl winners had a franchise QB. In some of those cases the teams in question had achieved the ideal. (A franchise QB + a complete team.) In other cases the franchise QB was good enough to compensate for weaknesses at other positions.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Have at it Mr. Hopeful. It's a discussion board after all. Go Bills!!!

 

I feel no need to "have at it". I gave my point of view quite clearly in another post - that until proven otherwise, Fitz is what he is, a middle-tier QB (mediocre is the negative way to put it, and does not equate to "everyone else in the league is better"). Maybe top of the middle tier, maybe bottom. That is the viewpoint that objective analysis of the games to date, as well as statistics, support. He has made some world-class throws and had some world-class come from behind victories. He has given us the lead in some games we should have won if our D stood up and kept the lead they were given. He has made some world class bloopers and some genuinely bad games. He is 15th to 22nd in various statistical catagories, with the exception of TDs (top) and INTs (bottom). That last is killer, and taking risks to try to come from behind only partly excuses it. I personally think coaching/playcalling has something to do with his performance.

 

People who want to compare him to the proven top-tier guys - Brady, Brees, the Mannings, Rodgers - are flying in the face of proven performance - nuts. People who think our current Bills team would be better with any one of the 31 other current starters or Flynn or Colt McCoy playing for us are likewise flying in the face of the evidence to date - holding a position they present no evidence to support.

[superbills315]

Who cares about Vick? This is a Fitz debate and his raw numbers aren't indicative of his performance. Can he throw the entire route tree? Nope, and Gailey doesn't ask him to. Does he turn it over? Yep, to the tune of 7 times in 4 games. Does he hit his receivers in stride? Not frequently enough and he tends to get his guys injured or they absorb big hits.

 

I have to say Chandler has proven me wrong in certain respects. I considered him a Buddy Nix bluelight special, but he's demonstrated decent hands and made some plays. He'll never run by anyone like a Jimmy Graham, but he's been reliable in the receiving game.

 

 

Exactly!!!! he never throws the ball until after the wr make there breaks and by then the cb has recovered and is on top of them he is a good backup but thats it imo

[Alphadawg7]

Now I know why you played on the defensive side of the ball in college. The only thing I can agree with here is that he lacks the superior arm strength to fit the rock into tight windows and the accuracy to be more consistent, regardless.

 

As to the rest of what you're saying, it's like you're watching completely different games.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

And yet it's talked about every week by both people watching the games and announcers about hoe he was late AGAIN on a throw....hmmmmm

 

EDIT: Did you watch todays game...did it several times today too...

Edited October 8, 2012 by Alphadawg7

[papazoid]

luckily he only ranked the "starting" qb's.....

 

 

otherwise, i think #30 is a little high.....

 

 

surely there are a dozen backups who are better....

 

 

fitz just can NOT throw a deep ball.....

[26CornerBlitz]

#30 may have been too generous.

[Alphadawg7]

luckily he only ranked the "starting" qb's.....

 

 

otherwise, i think #30 is a little high.....

 

 

surely there are a dozen backups who are better....

 

 

fitz just can NOT throw a deep ball.....

 

THIS ^^^^^^^

[K-9]

And yet it's talked about every week by both people watching the games and announcers about hoe he was late AGAIN on a throw....hmmmmm

 

timestamp='1349637871' posEDIT: Did you watch todays game...did it several times today too...

 

NONE of what you said in your original post about Fitz making the right reads was true. His ability to read a defense is not a myth as you suggested. He makes the correct reads, just as BOTH his audibles on the long passes he missed today would suggest. Just as both his misses to Graham on go routes last week. Just as has been the case since he became starter. He can read a defense and that is undeniable.

 

He's not late with his reads. He's late with the ball and/or inaccurate. That's a TOTALLY separate animal. There is no argument from me that he's inaccurate and lacks touch, especially on his deep passes.

 

Doesn't matter anyway. Whether he plays out the season or never takes another snap. He will not be our QB next season. No great loss.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Edited October 8, 2012 by K-9

[Alphadawg7]

NONE of what you said in your original post about Fitz making the right reads was true. His ability to read a defense is not a myth as you suggested. He makes the correct reads, just as BOTH his audibles on the long passes he missed today would suggest. Just as both his misses to Graham on go routes last week. Just as has been the case since he became starter. He can read a defense and that is undeniable.

 

He's not late with his reads. He's late with the ball and/or inaccurate. That's a TOTALLY separate animal. There is no argument from me that he's inaccurate and lacks touch, especially on his deep passes.

 

Doesn't matter anyway. Whether he plays out the season or never takes another snap. He will not be our QB next season. No great loss.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

LOL...you do realize that to be late with the ball means you were late in recognizing that the WR was going to be open when he was in that spot...hence he has YET to throw it because he was LATE in recognizing the opportunity. Trust me when I tell you that the exact language used in a film session is "late" when describing such a play. If he ANTICIPATES the read on the D and understands where the opportunities are BEFORE they occur, then he can deliver the ball on time to spot where the receiver WILL be as opposed to throwing to where the receiver is AT.

 

So again, Ryans so called high game IQ and making the right reads is a myth. I have news for you, EVERY QB in the NFL, including 3rd strings can read an NFL defense to some degree or they wouldnt have a job. The myth I am referring to is the one that is thrown around here that somehow Fitz excels at it, which he absolutely does not as he proves week in and week out. He makes a lot of ill advised throws, terrible reads, doesn't see open receivers, and recognizes opportunities TOO LATE to get the ball to receiver given his girly arm.

 

So once again...its a myth. Just like the people who flamed me when I kept telling people Trent being accurate was a myth...or that Trents pocket presence was a myth...or that Trent had was one of the most intelligent QB's in the NFL was a myth. Just because Fitz went to Harvard, does not make him some defense reading genius. Watch the rewind footage...you will see how often there are options CLEARLY developing that he does not anticipate and instead waits until they are actually open before throwing the ball which means by the time the ball gets there they are no longer open. You will see how often he makes a bad decision on where to throw the ball when there was clearly better options. You will see how late he recognizes where to go with the ball.

 

But, then again, facts and real footage always made too much sense for this board. And yes I agree, Fitz's time in Buffalo is coming to a close...thank god, I have only been calling for it sense his first start.

Edited October 8, 2012 by Alphadawg7