ProFootball Outsiders Playoff odds...Bills surprising...

[Big Turk]

Pro Football Outsiders currently have the Bills at 66.4% to make the playoffs with a mean wins of 9.7, which is 4th highest in the AFC behind Houston's 10.9, Baltimore's 10.6, and New England's 9.9...

 

Bills also have the 4th highest chance in the AFC to reach the championship game behind the same teams at 19.2%(9th best in NFL), 8th best chance in the NFL to win the championship game at 8.8%, and 9th highest chance in the NFL to win the superbowl at 3.7%...

 

clearly by whatever statistical analysis they use, they are bullish on the Bills this year...

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

[BiggieScooby]

I saw this earlier today. I will like our chances even more if we beat New England Sunday.

 

Go Bills!

[ny33]

I saw this earlier today. I will like our chances even more if we beat New England Sunday.

 

Go Bills!

 

Sunday is a must-win game.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Sunday is a must-win game.

 

It would be nice but as long as we make the playoffs then it doesn't matter who we beat.

[MDH]

Sunday is a must-win game.

 

So if they lose and fall to 2-2 the Bills should just pack in the season because they can't make the playoffs? Damn, and here I thought the other 12 games might hold some importance.

[buffaloboyinATL]

 

 

Sunday is a must-win game.

I disagree, but it would be nice. The next 6 games will definitely show us if we are play-off contenders or not though.

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

It's not surprising to me. Despite a...precarious?...QB situation, we dominate the line of scrimmage.

[Canadian Bills Fan]

Sunday is huge!!!

 

Just think about it, if we beat the Pats, not only do they fall to 1-3 and we go to 3-1, we will also have beaten the most important divisional opponent that stands in our way of winning the division!

 

 

Go Bills!!!

 

 

CBF

[The Big Cat]

I want to be excited about this, but after very very similar threads after last year's red-hot start, these numbers will hold much MUCH more water in about 6-8 weeks.

 

Ugh. Turd, meet punch bowl, I know.

[jimmy10]

I will pay zero attention to our statistical likelihood of making the playoffs until we're actually there. At 5-2 last year, I distinctly remember our odds being well over 70% to make the postseason.

[Dorkington]

We were really high on the playoff odds last year as well at certain points...

[SpecialK15]

So if they lose and fall to 2-2 the Bills should just pack in the season because they can't make the playoffs? Damn, and here I thought the other 12 games might hold some importance.

 

Maybe not a must win game but Sunday is a "if-you-lose-you-let-the-other-divisional-teams-catch-you" game.

[CodeMonkey]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/football/USA/NFL/Buffalo.html has the odds at 76.2% if the Bills hit 9-7.

 

But it drops off a cliff at 18.8% if the Bills end up at 8-8.

[zow2]

Well, taking a look at our fairly "easy" schedule (by preseason standards) it has changed. under the "we are who they thought they were" scientific guage, i have rated our remaining opponents. Of the remaining 13 games, i think 8 are even (same as what we thought), 4 are harder and 1 is easier. You could argue that NE is easier based on record and Houston is even, but we know that's not the case. Those are tough games to win. I put my prediction (just to amuse myself) and think we will go 10-6 this year and i hope that puts us in!

 

@ NYJ Loss

KC Win

@ Cleve Win

NE even (L)

@ SF easier (W)

@ Ariz harder (L)

Tenn even (W)

@ Hou harder (L)

@ NE even (L)

Miami even (W)

@ Indy even (W)

Jax even (W)

STL harder (W)

Sea harder (W)

@ Mia even (L)

NYJ even (W)

[BuffOrange]

I definitely don't see SF as easier than I thought. A lot of the statistical-minded people like those at Football Outsiders expected a significant drop-off from the 49ers, which thus far hasn't happened at all despite last week.