CLE Vs. CIN Analysis. NFL Rewind is handy

[OCinBuffalo]

First, NFL Rewind is decent. They need to scale...badly. But, for my $40, and peace of mind that I'm not doing the pirate thing for yet another season...so far it's worth it.

 

Next....I analyzed the Browns game this past Sunday. Somebody like Bill_NYC could do a much better job than me with the line play. I broke it down per half, and by O, D, ST, and....Coaching . Summary First, Detail Below. If you wan to read this in 1 minute, just read the bold:

 

Offense Summary:

1. Tackling Richardson(RB) high = FAIL. You cannot. Can't stress this enough. Most of his big runs resulted from some moron trying to lay a big hit on him high. Good luck. Other morons tried to arm tackle him. Hysterical. You can get his legs. But that depends on...

 

2. Will Richardson run "high" or "low"? I watched enough of the Philly game to see a marked difference in how he ran, compared to the Cincy game. Richardson is a powerful, North/South speed guy. But, that's all he is when he runs high. On his 2nd touchdown in CIN, he ran low, gained the ability to cut, and he was un-tackleable in space. But, every time he ran high, he was stopped easily. Funny thing about this below.*

 

3. Weeden(QB)/O line pass blocking can beat you if you let them. I counted no less that 23 times where Weeden had 4+ seconds to throw in this game, whether it was via standing in the pocket like a veteran, or rolling, play action etc. The problem was: nobody was open or his first read wasn't. CIN D line is anything but "elite". They were mostly handled, often 1v1. So, as I said, it's hard to tell if CLE O line is good, or CIN D line is bad. They appeared evenly matched to me, and neither looked that good.

 

4. #11 and #81 are the only viable receivers. #25 also likes to sneak out of the backfield and make catches. But it only worked twice. #81 is the safety valve. #11 is Weeden's first look on every play. Everybody else is just running around out there. #82(TE) sucks at receiving, and he can't run block either.

 

5. Richardson is damn deadly on screens. Period.

 

Defense Summary:

1. Hey...I know this defense... Jauron's outside/deep first = middle of the field and the flats are wide open...defense in full effect. Initially CIN kept trying to beat CLE deep and FAILing. They did finally do it, but trying to win deep too much was the only reason the score wasn't 49-10. Can anybody say....8 yard slant/out? Eventually Andy Dalton did, lots of times. 8-10 yard cushions = CIN moving down the field with ease. We've all seen this before. LBs, making tackles 5 yards down the field, etc. CIN didn't figure it out fully until he 2nd half, but they did figure it out.

 

2. D Line is inconsistent...and pass rush was...weird. This is why I need Bill. They "for-real" sacked Dalton 4 times(one called back on an incoherent penalty call)...but most were coverage sacks(I don't know)...due to CIN trying to go deep. There was 1(one) jail break type sack. The Bungles ran the ball because they wanted to keep the Browns honest. But, those runs almost always went for at least 3+ yards, and this D line didn't stuff the run at all.

 

3. LBs/Nickel are nothing special. Lots here to exploit for us...especially with Chandler and Jones.

 

4. DBs are downright awful, or is it the 10 yard cushion they give? They couldn't press, or bump, or run. They looked confused, but, it doesn't matter because they can't tackle anyway. We remember this, don't we? This game could easily have been a blow-out in the 1st half. Andy Dalton was largely stopped by Andy Dalton...by missing throw after throw. His WRs had beaten their men soundly.

 

5. 7:00 left in the game, Browns down by a TD, after just scoring one. They need the ball back...and most of you can finish this paragraph for a Dick Jauron defense. That's right, they "bent and didn't break". CIN "bent" them right down the field. The DJ Defense couldn't get off the field, took 5 minutes off the clock, burned all their TOs, allowed a FG, but, of course...not a TD...putting CLE O on the field with 2 minutes left, no TOs and down by 2 scores = basically screwed. Did I mention CIN didn't score a TD? ( just thinking about this) Well..."it's tough to win in the NFL". Yes Dick, and it's an order of magnitude tougher when you play not to lose, instead of actually playing to win.

 

ST Summary:

1. We will kill them. That is all.

 

Coaching:

1. We get to play against a DJ defense And we all know how to beat it. If you can get up 14-3, he will overreact, double down on covering deep and the outside, just like he did in this game. The middle of the field and the flats will be wide open. Thus, instead of beating his team by 50, you'll only beat them by 30. (Unless you are the Patriots, and are still doing no huddle late in 3rd quarter already up by 3 TDs. ) All we need to do is have somebody beat them deep once, just like the Bengals did, and we have wide open slants, outs, and screens for the rest of the game.

 

2. We can all talk about the running game...but we should crush this team by passing, tough crap if you don't like it. Look the matchups are there for the taking, like it or not. Yes, I know what you said, what Chan said, what Stevie said, and what Fitz said this week, and I don't wanna hear it. There is 0 reason to fear this team's pass rush, or DBs. There is 0 reason to give them a chance, by running it into the line, playing into their game, and letting them hang around into the 2nd half. Run it enough to keep them honest. Run it as a surprise. But pass it to win, and end this game in the 1st half. None of these turds can cover Johnson, Chandler, and certainly not CJ lined up as WR. Hell there's no reason Donald Jones can't have a 70 yard 1 TD day.

 

3. IF we do #2....we don't have to worry about Richardson, and let's force Jauron etc. to make the tough calls. They started passing as soon as they got down. But, once they came back a little, it was right back to Richardson runs. We don't want that, not even a little bit. Put them down by more than 14, and they WILL start throwing it. Meanwhile, Jauron will almost certainly find a way to screw up if we get up. Let's make them make the tough calls on offense too = what to do on 2nd and long. If we allow them to play a low-scoring, Dick Jauron, "wait until the 4th Qtr. to see who wins" game, we are fools.

 

4. This is a largely young, undisciplined team that will quit if we get them down big. They had 100+ yards in penalties, and many were stupid or unnecessary. Both teams sucked on ST, but the Browns got penalty after penalty. They had an awful defensive penalty in the 4th quarter that kept them on the field. I saw them getting into scuffles with Cincy, and then push around their own teammates who were trying to get them to line up and play. We have a much more mature and talented team, and there's no reason not to simply kick their asses with our O/D line, and then take the 15 yarders they are sure to give us as a result.

 

 

Offense detail

1st half:

 

Play action. We can expect a whole lot of Richardson...and then a whole lot of play action. Only a moron wouldn't do play action against our D. We have to be ready.

 

Cleveland has a rookie RT that can't run block that well. They tried running it his way 2 times, and were stuffed hardcore. He can pass block. In fact I was wondering how the hell CIN is an "elite" defense watching this game. Nothing elite about it at all. Pass rushers had no heart. They tripped Dalton for a sack....didn't know that was legal.

 

Richardson really didn't get going in the 1st Qtr. He had a few nice runs, but it looked like they were disorganized on the O line more than it being Richardson's fault. I can't stress his ability enough when he runs low. Just the same, he is very gettable when he runs high. He did get going in the 2nd and had a nice long run for a TD. CIN LBs were on crack that play.

 

* In fact, CIN got him in the backfield, because he was high, and didn't cut. The CIN DT got one of his cleats...literally...and threw it into the end zone How that's not an unsportsmanlike penalty, I don't know. But it was hysterical.

 

Weedon is a "first-read" guy. If it's not there, he's in trouble. He was 0-3 on passes down field this half, even when he was all alone on a roll-out. But, again, he had ALL DAY to throw the ball on 8 separate plays....but only completed 3.

 

2nd half:

 

More of same on running it right...the rookie RT isn't that good at run blocking. Mario should have a field day.

 

Watch out for Richardson screens. He is deadly in space...with only a 2 step head of steam. He embarrassed the CIN defense on his 2nd TD. Even though they were down, they still ran the ball. It helped that they got a freebie, tipped pass turnover. That's what kept them in the game, not the play of their defense. So, they were able to run, because that INT was the only thing that kept them from going down 21-3. However, I have little doubt that if we put 21 up on them early, they will start throwing it and Richardson will be relegated to 3rd down and 2, etc.

 

What it means for us, I think:

Weedon can run around, roll out, avoid pressure, but he also has the sack to stand in and take a hit. But, if we can blow up their play design/take away the first read, we should cruise. However, we have to be very disciplined this game on defense. We can stop them easily...if we stay disciplined cover properly and just let our D line do their thing. We should be able to contain Richardson, the same as we did with the Chiefs = stay in position and just physically overpower their O line. Richardson will get his runs...because he will get them on everybody. Weeden is the key: the Bungles let the Browns hang around...instead of crushing them early. Their receivers are nowhere near as good as those we've already faced. Should be a relatively simple assignment for our guys.

 

Defense Detail:

 

1st half:

 

Dick Jauron Defense: you play bump and run...and then you don't bump...or run. Bengal WRs were open all over the field. The advantage of Rewind is: you can see coaches film. Over and over, guys were open, running free. Dalton just didn't hit them. If he had, they could have been up 21-0 in this half easily. If Dalton was on, he could have had a 500 yard game. He wasn't, so he only threw for 300+ yards. Get it?

 

Per a typical DJ defense...you can run for 4 yards on 1st down. The Bengals had "Guy who has 4 names" at RB, and he did just fine getting them the occasional 3.5 yards here and there. Just enough to keep them honest on the pass rush. That's all they wanted from him Green-Ellis, and CLE did little to stop it. I really have no idea why Dalton kept shooting for down field in the first half. He finally got one for a TD, but had they just done the 7 yards on 1st down thing, they would have been in the red zone on every drive.

 

2nd half:

 

Got lucky with a gimme pick. Otherwise, Dalton exploited the D terribly. And, as I said: once the Jauron D was exposed, Dalton's completion % rose quickly. I actually felt bad for this D, especially when they started pushing each other around. They were so frustrated...since they were simply incapable of doing anything to stop CIN "take 5 yards and line up again" exploitation of the Jauron awfulness.

 

ST:

 

Not worth talking about. No reason why we don't run back a punt on these guys, if not 2. No reason why McLuvin won't average 15 yards per return. No reason why Moorman won't average 50 yards a punt....if we punt at all. Boring day for Lindell.

 

 

Concluson:

 

I could be wrong...about everything, of course. But, I know enough to know a bad secondary when I see one. I know that we can kill this team with Stevie's game. And, I know that we should bury them ASAP, if for no other reason than: we can.

Edited September 20, 2012 by OCinBuffalo

[Garion]

Great analysis. Andy Dalton next great young QB?!?!

[Dorkington]

Thanks for the analysis. It'll be interesting to see how Chan does against a DJ Defense...

[Coach Tuesday]

Sounds like we should load the box and jam their WRs. Sounds like they should do the same thing to us, but we know Jauron won't.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Nice job. I will say--don't underestimate jauron. Might not be a good HC, but he's been a solid DC. I can see them playing us tight in coverage and forcing us to throw deep. Their front 4 beat the crap out ov vick the week before. I expect their D to be tough and better than KC for sure.

[FleaMoulds80]

I think some people have too much time on their hands and need to get a real job.

[Kelly the Dog]

Nice job, OC.

 

The funny thing is, people in Cleveland think Jauron is great and the rest of the coaching is crappy. The Browns will not be the pushover, IMO, that the Chiefs were. Richardson is good, the OL is pretty darn good, and the D front seven is pretty stout, especially against the run. We need to spread the field and run out of the spread at about a 50-50 balance, IMO.

[Clippers of Nfl]

I think some people have too much time on their hands and need to get a real job.

Rude.

 

I appreciate the info oc. A lot. Btw, I have a job and I wouldnt mind doing the same thing if not for other posters already sharing their info.

[John from Riverside]

It actually seems like a defense that is tailor made for Ryan Fitzpatrick to have a big day......

 

A couple of thoughts

 

- Its ok to kick a bunch of field goals and still win the game.....DJ's defenses stiffen up closer to the goaline....so the key is to move the ball within the 20's (which you know is gonna be open on HIS defenses)......and kick like 10 field goals

 

- I wonder if Tank will play for them (I still think it was a mistake letting him go)

 

- This seems like a game where Spiller catching.....Chandler.....and Donald Jones could all have big days

 

- Their defense is not going to get "coverage sacks" on Ryan Fitzpatrick....he simply doesnt hold onto the ball long enough for that to happen

 

- The yards running the ball will still be there

 

 

I think the big thing with this game is to just be efficient......if we dont turn the ball over we will win

[rpmfla]

First, NFL Rewind is decent. They need to scale...badly. But, for my $40, and peace of mind that I'm not doing the pirate thing for yet another season...so far it's worth it.

 

I just wanted to add comments about Rewind...absolutely loving watching a game without the commercials! What do you mean by "need to scale"?

[BillsBytheBay]

I think some people have too much time on their hands and need to get a real job.

How about you go somewhere that is not designed for people that have too much time. This is a FAN site... Ya know for people who like to examine and discuss football? How did you end up in this blog than?

 

Fan=Fanatic. That means we REALLY like our team. Not just following it.

 

 

Great break down. It sounds like our special teams could put in position to win this game. I can't wait to see how it goes!

[yungmack]

How about you go somewhere that is not designed for people that have too much time. This is a FAN site... Ya know for people who like to examine and discuss football? How did you end up in this blog than?

 

Fan=Fanatic. That means we REALLY like our team. Not just following it.

 

 

Great break down. It sounds like our special teams could put in position to win this game. I can't wait to see how it goes!

 

Don't know how this ever got started but by now it's so ubiquitous it's probably even in some dictionaries. But it originated in England in, I think, either the late 18th or early 19th century from the word "fancier," as in "The king is a fancier of horse racing." Kind of like the now totally accepted mispronunciation of "Caitlin," which is simply the Gaelic/Irish spelling of "Kathleen."

[richNjoisy]

Peter King just picked the Browns to win and raved about their run defense especially D'Qwell Jackson. Of course, the Bills may lose - I have not problem with that part of

his prediction but his raving about the run part is inconsistent with the Review here (#2 Defense Summary) which does not rave and, in fact, says we will likely get 3 yards plus per run. Anyone else have a feel for the Browns run defense?

[Billshank Redemption]

Peter king is fairly supportive of us so Ill give him a pass on this one

[McBeane]

I think some people have too much time on their hands and need to get a real job.

 

Considering that you likely know nothing about the OP, this is pretty uncalled for. Not sure what point you are trying to prove with this statement.

 

To the OP: thanks for the analysis!

[albany c2]

I think some people have too much time on their hands and need to get a real job.

 

Come on now.

 

 

 

Great post, I'm debating whether I should shovel out the $40 to get NFL rewind but it sure sounds worth it. I've watched the highlights of the Browns/Bengals game and Richardson looks real good. I can't see them running well on Sunday though, but we will probably get burned on some screen passes.

[BillsBytheBay]

 

 

Don't know how this ever got started but by now it's so ubiquitous it's probably even in some dictionaries. But it originated in England in, I think, either the late 18th or early 19th century from the word "fancier," as in "The king is a fancier of horse racing." Kind of like the now totally accepted mispronunciation of "Caitlin," which is simply the Gaelic/Irish spelling of "Kathleen."

Good for you professor. I'm not quoting any dictionary. I'm speaking of all us folks, who analyze every play, watch every game no matter what, and emotionally ride the season like a roller coaster. WE ARE fanatical. If its not to your liking, just read news articles. Don't put down a guy for breaking down a game, that so many of us are really interested about.

But thanks for either late 18th or early 19th century history lesson, boss.

 

By the way, do you know what a semantic change is?

[Bookie Man]

First time poster here. But I check this site and message board multiple times a day. Great analysis. I definitely think I'm going to be getting NFL rewind. I was shocked to see Weeden's week 2 stat line after his week 1 performance. I agree with you that Buffalo should open up the pass a little bit more, as I'm sure Cleveland will be geared towards trying to stop the run. But it's also scary to put the game in Fitz's hands as well.

 

I'm hoping our Dline can wreak havoc early and rattle the rookie QB and take an early lead to try to get them away from the running game.

[FLutieFLakesPLZnoOJ]

Great post....i can see T.J. Graham being a x factor in this game....

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Peter King just picked the Browns to win and raved about their run defense especially D'Qwell Jackson. Of course, the Bills may lose - I have not problem with that part of

his prediction but his raving about the run part is inconsistent with the Review here (#2 Defense Summary) which does not rave and, in fact, says we will likely get 3 yards plus per run. Anyone else have a feel for the Browns run defense?

 

Interesting.

 

DQ and Rubin are good run defenders for sure but Cleveland didn't slow LeSean McCoy down at all in week one and then they played a Bengals team which is pretty average in the run game.

 

On top of that, the Browns are missing space eater Phil Taylor and looked a bit softer against the run than they were last year. I'd be surprised if they were ranked highly in run defense or average yards per carry against.

 

I seriously doubt that Cleveland has what it takes to slow down our rushing attack.

 

I think it's more likely that Gailey will abandon the run than that Cleveland will force us to pass.