All-22 Coaches Film -- Analysis of Fitz Week Two

[BillsVet]

Well, just me, I think QB is the strongest need for the Bills even if Fitz has a good year. I understand why the Bills haven't moved on one - too many holes - but now many of those holes are in a way towards being filled, and they need, if nothing else, a very promising developmental QB for the future.

 

There is no higher need than QB, now or in 2010 when Nix took over.

 

And if a franchise lacking a franchise type prioritizes another position over QB, what does that say about their team building approach?

Edited September 22, 2012 by BillsVet

[Kodiak]

I am in no way defending Fitz's play nor am I declaring him the next Tom Brady waiting to happen. We all know Fitz is not an elite QB but are we absolutely positive that he is completely incapable of taking a "good" team to the playoffs. Seems this season has begun as the season of interceptions. There are many, including some elite (Manning bro's / Brady) QB's that already have multiple INT's this season. Cam Newton looked absolutely dreadful Thursday night against an injury riddled Giants team in their home stadium. I am not saying Fitz will ever consistently carry his team to victory but if he gets hot at the right time this could be an exciting season for Bills fans (see 2011 Oakland / New England shoot outs). My hope is that with us starting of fast last year and falling off that 2012 will reverse the situation as we started out dreadful against the Jets and Fitz looked a bit awkward at times against KC so hopefully will get hot against New England in week 4 (I already penciled 49er's as a loss as Harbaugh has them firing on all cylinders). The debacle against the Jets showed us our QB at his worst for sure but I blame that fiasco on coaching and game prep as much, if not more, than on Fitz's poor play. The truth is we walked into the Jets house poorly prepared with a soft defense that played not to lose rather than to win! The lack of a defensive presence and inability to adjust to what NY was doing to us was disheartening to say the least. I still billieve that if Fitz can settle in at the right time and our coaching staff can fire these guys up to being a physical presence along with providing some sound game planning that we could be looking at a hell of a run from week 6 on with really tough games against the Patsy's and Texans the 2nd half of the year. I love my beloved Bills and will billieve until the final whistle !!!

[Pirate Angel]

So with nothing better do after waking up way too early this morning with a head cold, I decided to break out the iPad and watch the coaches film of the KC game, with a specific focus on the play of Fitzpatrick.

 

Mind you, I went into this exercise with the predisposition Fitz had played poorly on Sunday -- or if not poorly, then average at best. From my vantage point in the stands, it seemed as though he had no confidence and was either late or inaccurate on a number of throws.

 

The result of my analysis? I watched every offensive snap Fitz took, and my conclusion is he either missed an opportunity or made an errant throw a total of three times. Here are those plays:

 

1. 3rd and 1, Buffalo 25, 10:11 1st Q -- Fitz rolls right and throws incomplete to Chandler. He actually makes two mistakes on the play -- failing to throw initially when Chandler breaks free, and then badly underthrowing the open TE while moving to his right. Just a bad play; Bills punt.

 

2. 1st and 10, KC 17, 2:12 1st Q -- Fitz is trying to hit Stevie on a quick slant and throws a low and away fastball. This is another throw to his right -- Stevie had a chance to catch it, but not a good chance. The next play was CJ's first TD.

 

Surprisingly, that was it for the 1st half. Fitz went 7/12 but in my opinion the other three incompletions were neither bad decisions nor bad throws. The TD to Chandler was a beautiful throw, and Fitz scrambled several times for positive yardage. He was on time and hit receivers in stride as well.

 

In the 2nd half, the lone bad throw I picked up was on 3rd and 3 from the Buffalo 27 on the first drive of the 3rd Q. Fitz had Stevie wide open in the middle of the zone to his left for an easy 1st down, and he simply missed the throw.

 

That was it. There were a couple of throws to the outside that at first glance appeared to be errant, but when looking at the play from the All-22 perspective you could see the receivers were covered and Fitz essentially threw it away.

 

On the Bills' last TD drive, Fitz was really on target. The rollout and toss to Chandler was perfectly executed, and then the TD to Stevie was thrown in stride so Johnson did not have to stop or stretch for the pass.

 

All in all, I came away from the film with a much different perspective on Fitz's play -- surprisingly so. Three bad plays in 23 dropbacks (including four rushes) doesn't seem so bad. I'd be interested in hearing if others also watched the film and had another impression.

those 3 throws he has got to make if we are going to beat good teams in this league, he has to keep the offense on the field. The rollout to Chandler was awful, he does that against the Pats and the Ball is back in Brady's hands. You analyzed a game that was against a bad team when our running game was hot, Do it agains t a good team that shuts down our running game, eliminates the effectiveness of play action and forces Fitz to make plays.

[PS 56]

Thanks for researching. You know, the masses have already determined that Fitz is terrible so I'm not sure your analysis is going to change any minds. People seem to forget the good plays and focus on the bad, especially when we lose.

You are right. Fritz's play during the Jet's game was pathetic and colored my view of him. I was willing to buy into the story of the cracked rib as the reason his play suffered toward the end of last year. Then there were the stories of this great quarterback coach fixing Fritz's mechanics. But the humiliation that was the jet's game showed that was all BS. I hope he proves us all wrong as the season progresses. But it is doubtful.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Well I'm critical of Fitz because he's the QB of the team I follow.

 

Also, I live in Boston so I see more than my fare share of Brady playing. That guy does not miss easy throws. I know I'm probably holding Fitz to too high of a standard.. But I know he can make the throws that he missed on Sunday.

 

Brady does, actually, from time to time. He can often be seen chewing the ears of his targets on the sideline afterwards, sometimes blaming "tips" in the presser, and sometimes I've heard him say "that was a bad throw". I've also seen him stewing alone on the sidelines, obviously ticked at himself.

 

Think about it peeps. A league-leading, elite QB completion percentage is 66%. Brady last year was 65.6%, #4 in the NFL.

 

That means 1/3 of the time when a league-leading, elite QB drops back to pass, the throw does not result in a completion. Sometimes it's dropped, sometimes it's thrown away, sometimes it's tipped, sometimes it's a bad throw, and yes, Brady has passes that look like easy throws, and result in incompletions.

 

Let's shift frame and look at this another way. The QB whose teams were in the playoffs last year were named Manning, Brady, Smith, Flacco, Rodgers, TJ Yates, Tebow, and Brees.

Brees, Rodgers, Brady, and Manning are year-after-year elite QB.

Yates is a 3rd string rookie who didn't throw enough to be ranked last year - 61% completion in a limited dataset

Tebow had a completion percentage of 46.5% in 2011.

Flacco had a completion percentage of 57.6% in 2011. Lifetime he's 60.8%

Smith had a completion percentage of 61.3% in 2011. Lifetime he's 58.4%

Lifetime Fitzy is 59%.

 

Different folks can make different things of that. What I make of it:

1) all this talk about Fitz holding us back, keeping us from being playoff contenders, is so much BS. Teams make it to the playoffs with worse QBs all the time. The Bills, as a team, will make the playoffs if the Bills, as a team, play well enough to make the playoffs. Yeah, Fitz sucked in Game 1 but so did the D, big time, and the ST contributed their part to the suckage. Fitz sucks but the rest of the team mans up, maybe the outcome differs.

2) the key difference between Fitz at the end of last season and week 1, vs these playoff QB, is turnovers. Every single one of those guys had a way lower INT percentage last year than Fitz.

3) therefore, any game where Fitz throws 0 INTs and 0 fumbles should be considered playing well, and any game where he commits more than 1 turnover should be considered playing poorly, even if he throws 75% completions for 400 yds with half of them 50 yd throws. In 2010, Manning threw 25 INTs. Despite his 63% completion and his >4000 yds passing, the Giants went home in January.

[i hold other players to the same standard - if CJ has 200 combined yards from scrimmage but commits key turnovers, he can't be said to have a "great game" in my book]

 

Back to you, sports fans.

 

There is no higher need than QB, now or in 2010 when Nix took over.

 

And if a franchise lacking a franchise type prioritizes another position over QB, what does that say about their team building approach?

 

I don't know, you tell me, what does it say?

 

While you're telling, please explain: how has that approach worked out for the Rams? How's it working for the Panthers?

[Sisyphean Bills]

While you're telling, please explain: how has that approach worked out for the Rams? How's it working for the Panthers?

 

It's true that the list of guys that do not become the franchise QB that those drafting the kid hope for is lengthy. However, the only way to guarantee you don't get a franchise QB is to not make an attempt.

 

I'm not sure how many people would say that the (one of the) main problem(s) with Carolina or St. Louis is the play of Newton or Bradford. [i haven't seen them play recently myself, so don't have an observation.]

[FreakPop]

those 3 throws he has got to make if we are going to beat good teams in this league, he has to keep the offense on the field. The rollout to Chandler was awful, he does that against the Pats and the Ball is back in Brady's hands. You analyzed a game that was against a bad team when our running game was hot, Do it agains t a good team that shuts down our running game, eliminates the effectiveness of play action and forces Fitz to make plays.

 

So you are saying Fitz needs to be perfect? Fitz isn't perfect, and now I understand why he is ragged on so much. Man, I guess if the Bills had one of those perfect QBs they would win and everyone would be happy.

When any NFL team finds a perfect QB please let me know.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Have you watched it yet? Pay attention to when Fitz gets his shoulders turned and hits the near hashes. Look at the position of Fitz compared to Pears, Jackson and Chandler. That's 4 bodies in a line. While the entire home viewing public and most of the stadium could see that Scott was free and clear, Fitz could not. He had his back turned to execute the play fake and when he turns tries to find Chandler he gets a great view of Erik Pear's #79.

 

Can he tell that Chandler is on his route? I suspect this is his option base on the the coverage. Is there a defender over the top? Could there be a 5th body on the hashes? So Fitz does the smart thing and continues to roll until he can better see the field. But Jackson continues to drive Pears deeper into the backfield and toward the sideline. Chandler is taking his route up the field more than across thus keeping Jackson between Fitz and him a few beats longer. Fitz stays patient and continues to roll and eventually clears Pears/Jackson and can see the field clearly. Just as he is getting ready to fire a bullet pass to Chandler, Jackson disengages from Pears and extends his hand toward the blurry flight of the ball which is travleing @ ~65 ft/sec. Jackson's hand and the football appear to be on a space/time intersection and what seemed like a ball destined for Chandler's chest becomes slowed and wobbly and crashes to the turf way short of the mark. Fans throw their fits and Fitz shoulders the blame. Maybe he never saw Jackson's tip or he has decided that he will shoulder all the criticism that comes his way. Either way, Fitz was careful with the ball, patient in waiting to see the field and decisive when he saw what he needed to see. Jackson just happened to make a nice play to get to the ball.

 

This is why if I were on a jury I could not convict on the basis of eyewitness testimony alone. Millions of sets of eyes watched this play, inlcuding some paid analysts, and 99.9% of them think they saw evidence that Fitz was inexplicably indecisive and inherently inaccurate.

 

The Bills have their 24 hour rule but we have nothing better to do footballwise so I'd like to think that I could convince some open minded Bills' fan at lest one, that my breakdown of the play at least plausible and likely 100% spot on.

 

Anyways, time to let it go as we will soon have a new game to over analyze. Off tto Cleveland.

 

Regardless of one's view of Fitz or the Bills QB situation, your analysis/explanation of this one play is excellent.

 

On top of that, your ability to write descriptively is also excellent.

 

I OFTEN wish that sportswriters could describe plays in the precise and artistic manner in which you just did.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

It's true that the list of guys that do not become the franchise QB that those drafting the kid hope for is lengthy. However, the only way to guarantee you don't get a franchise QB is to not make an attempt.

 

I'm not sure how many people would say that the (one of the) main problem(s) with Carolina or St. Louis is the play of Newton or Bradford. [i haven't seen them play recently myself, so don't have an observation.]

 

Bradford ranked 29th in the league last year. He threw only 6 INTs in 10 games - but only 6 TDs.

He ranked 25th in the league the year before

 

Now I personally still think he has the potential to be a very good QB in the league, and I would agree that QB is not a main problem on either team.

 

My point is, there is ample grounds to question "QB first" as a rebuilding strategy. Football is a team game.

[K-9]

There is no higher need than QB, now or in 2010 when Nix took over.

 

And if a franchise lacking a franchise type prioritizes another position over QB, what does that say about their team building approach?

 

All it says it that there wasn't anyone they considered a franchise type available to select. Period. Do you honestly feel that Buddy Nix isn't capable of understanding the importance of having an elite QB?

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Sisyphean Bills]

Bradford ranked 29th in the league last year. He threw only 6 INTs in 10 games - but only 6 TDs.

He ranked 25th in the league the year before

 

Now I personally still think he has the potential to be a very good QB in the league, and I would agree that QB is not a main problem on either team.

 

My point is, there is ample grounds to question "QB first" as a rebuilding strategy. Football is a team game.

 

We're on the same page wrt the bolded, Hope.

 

I do think most regimes will try to make a move at QB fairly quickly, because there is often the pressure to win now. If the last crew couldn't get it done in a QB driven league with a certain guy, turning the page could be seen as a move of self-preservation. The honeymoon period is finite, and real progress has to be shown before the window closes or one adds their name to the long list of failed NFL coaches.

 

The Seahawks and Redskins underwent the same transformation as the Bills at the same time. Each has had several transitions at the QB position, starting veterans acquired by trade, hold-overs, retreads, and draft picks. By contrast, the Bills have stuck with one guy (I'm ignoring the Trentative aborted project) over that same period with inconsistent results and regression in overall record.

[Meathead]

Have you watched it yet?

 

yeah i did and its certainly very possible that ball was tipped. unfortunately the ball is blurry and there isnt much space between fitz and the defender to tell how/where the ball was travelling before it passes the outstretched hand of the defender. it does appear that the ball slightly changes direction, but again its very hard to be certain. but given how very wobbly the ball was when it hit the ground seems to support the idea that it was tipped

 

given the relatively short distance between fitz and chandler, it seems very unlikely fitz or any qb could throw it that incredibly badly. so after watching that clip the most times in slow motion that i could stand, i think in order of possibility it was either tipped, or fitz grounded it intentionally to avoid the potential pick, or it simply totally slipped out of his hand while he was throwing it

 

nice posting on the eye witness jumping to conclusions, too

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

Bradford ranked 29th in the league last year. He threw only 6 INTs in 10 games - but only 6 TDs.

He ranked 25th in the league the year before

 

Now I personally still think he has the potential to be a very good QB in the league, and I would agree that QB is not a main problem on either team.

 

My point is, there is ample grounds to question "QB first" as a rebuilding strategy. Football is a team game.

 

All very true... and, to pile on a bit, please note the Rams' draft position this year, after having drafted young Mr. Bradford...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

We're on the same page wrt the bolded, Hope.

 

*bows*

 

The Seahawks and Redskins underwent the same transformation as the Bills at the same time. Each has had several transitions at the QB position, starting veterans acquired by trade, hold-overs, retreads, and draft picks. By contrast, the Bills have stuck with one guy (I'm ignoring the Trentative aborted project) over that same period with inconsistent results and regression in overall record.

 

I'm not sure quite what you mean by "same transformation as the Bills at the same time"? Can you expand a bit?

[BillsVet]

I don't know, you tell me, what does it say?

 

While you're telling, please explain: how has that approach worked out for the Rams? How's it working for the Panthers?

 

New regimes take their QB early, as noted already in the thread. We're way off topic, but this has become a debate about a team's vision, specifically QB development. You've gone a step further and used the Rams as evidence that taking a QB before other positions has the probability for failure. And if failure is something you want to eliminate then there's nothing I can offer you. As to the Rams, well, they are rebuilding but have some talent in place at the need positions. Second, Bradford is still in development and most certainly not a bust. None of this proves that taking a QB is overrated or somehow the exception to the rule.

 

And for the record, ask the Falcons, Lions, and Ravens about rebuilding with a young QB. With the right guy in the right system and with a decent amount of talent around him it can work. Teams simply do not go with the previous regime's guy (in Buffalo's case the former backup) and not then take someone to develop.

 

Buffalo's addressing the QB position is the exception to the rule. There are 5 rookies starting this year and 5 second year guys starting. Teams are going with younger QB's and trying to win now.

[eball]

 

There is no higher need than QB, now or in 2010 when Nix took over.

 

And if a franchise lacking a franchise type prioritizes another position over QB, what does that say about their team building approach?

 

Well, we're waiting for your answer. It seems you're just searching for someone to share your general pessimism, but please confirm.

[BillsVet]

Well, we're waiting for your answer. It seems you're just searching for someone to share your general pessimism, but please confirm.

 

It was a rhetorical question. Anyway, the point remains that teams who don't find their franchise QB early in a rebuild aren't truly rebuilding. Good enough?

 

Not everyone convinces themselves this team is on the right path after a 1-1 start. If that's something you don't like, well, sorry. Blind homerism isn't a mindset everyone shares.

[thebug]

Sure Fitz played pretty well. At least good enough to not cost us the game.

 

Anyone look at the coaches film for the Jets game? How about all of his starts for the Bills?

 

I will give him credit for the Chiefs game, but there is too much tape on Fitz to think that anything will change with him.

 

I expect he will play well this week and then suck the week after or vise versa.

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

It was a rhetorical question. Anyway, the point remains that teams who don't find their franchise QB early in a rebuild aren't truly rebuilding. Good enough?

 

Not everyone convinces themselves this team is on the right path after a 1-1 start. If that's something you don't like, well, sorry. Blind homerism isn't a mindset everyone shares.

 

 

Because the only choices are blind homerism and relentless negativity.

[Offside Number 76]

Great analysis! You have convinced me. I also think Fitz is smart enough to learn more from his mistakes than the average QB. If he shows us Good Fitz on Sunday, I will slide QB to a P2 on my Team Needs for the Bills. WR is the heir apparent with TE or OLB the P3. If anyone disagrees, let me know.

 

http://www.drafttek....amneeds2013.asp

 

Not to threadjack, but a team can grab a WR in free agency anywhere. TE is tougher, OLB, too.

 

And I'd draft a Q every freaking year. Not necessarily in the early rounds, mind you, but every year.