All-22 Coaches Film -- Analysis of Fitz Week Two

[tennesseeboy]

in the final analysis good quarterbacks win and less than good quarterbacks lose over the course of a season. Brady, Romo, the Mannings, Rodgers and others have bad plays and downright dumb plays. Its throwing three interceptions and coming back to win that makes a quarterback good or bad. When Fitz takes us to the playoffs...he's good. Until that happens? Sloppy and erratic with good moments.

[Billsrhody]

Except, you're not engaging in a discussion. People present actual facts to you and you just ignore them to keep ranting. You're like a kid in walmart running around with arms flailing, screaming saying you're having a discussion with your parents about the toy they won't buy you.

 

Your posts don't have any analysis or actual plays that you have issues with...it's just wild, babbling.

 

Please, start discussing, we'd love to have you join us.

 

I'm not sure if you've read any of my posts in this thread or if you're just looking at one and writing this.. if you look back through the thread you'll see I do provide facts, statistics and actually plays from the game to back up my argument.

 

Why don't you catch up before you jump in and start criticizing people blindly.

 

The reason Fitz did not throw the ball when everyone could see Chandler was open?

 

Fitz couldn't see him because Tyson Jackson (and Eric Pears initially) was/were between him and Chandler during most of the roll out starting at the hash mark.

 

The reason the ball hit the turf?

 

Tyson Jackson deflected it ever so slightly as it passed by him and the trajectory changed in an almost imperceptible way. What was a slightly ascending throw, roughly parallel to the turf, was suddenly slowed and angled downward.

 

It's tough to fault Fitz for mistakenly thinking he had cleared Jackson when Steve Beuerlein, most of the 70,000 in attendance and the millions watching at home didn't even consider Jackson to be a threat to the play and most of us continue to miss it even after watching countless replays over the last 4 days.

 

Trust me, Tyson Jackson tipped this pass and all the Fitzteria over this one play is a sign that collectively we don't know wtf we are talking about. Too many fans are inclined to look for evidence of Fitz's defective play that they are seeing it in instances where it does not exist. I suppose this will be a season long theme.

 

I do trust you on this but I don't think it really changes much. Fitz still should have thrown the ball earlier and when a ball gets tipped at the line, it is still the fault of the QB.

Edited September 20, 2012 by Billsrhody

[FreakPop]

I'm not sure if you've read any of my posts in this thread or if you're just looking at one and writing this.. if you look back through the thread you'll see I do provide facts, statistics and actually plays from the game to back up my argument.

 

Why don't you catch up before you jump in and start criticizing people blindly.

 

 

 

I do trust you on this but I don't think it really changes much. Fitz still should have thrown the ball earlier and when a ball gets tipped at the line, it is still the fault of the QB.

 

Why does it have to be the fault of the QB? I know, it's because it's Fitz. Why can't it be an excellent play from a defender.

[eball]

I'd really like to shut this thread down. It's a shame a post intended solely to provide (and elicit) opinions about Fitz's specific play last Sunday after watching the replay has devolved into folks shouting back and forth about whether he's great or sucks, and more of the usual b.s.

 

But I should have known.

 

/end it please

[Billsrhody]

Why does it have to be the fault of the QB? I know, it's because it's Fitz. Why can't it be an excellent play from a defender.

 

It can be an excellent play from a defender, but the QB still could have thrown the ball in a way that it could not have possibly been tipped. It has nothing to do with Fitz.

 

Thats why when you see a QBs throw get batted down at the line, the QB often will show signs of being frustrated with himself for missing an opportunity.

 

I'd really like to shut this thread down. It's a shame a post intended solely to provide (and elicit) opinions about Fitz's specific play last Sunday after watching the replay has devolved into folks shouting back and forth about whether he's great or sucks, and more of the usual b.s.

 

But I should have known.

 

/end it please

 

Not sure if you're referring to me or not?

[NoSaint]

 

 

It can be an excellent play from a defender, but the QB still could have thrown the ball in a way that it could not have possibly been tipped. It has nothing to do with Fitz.

 

Thats why when you see a QBs throw get batted down at the line, the QB often will show signs of being frustrated with himself for missing an opportunity.

 

theres a balance. ive been on your side with a lot in here, but you do have to allow for the other team being paid to make plays too. the qb never wants a tipped ball, and truly yea hes responsible for everything that leaves his hand, but sometimes, a monster D lineman is going to get his hands in the right spot, and its not a terrible play by the qb by any means.

[PaattMaann]

gettin catty up in hurrrrrrr

[Offside Number 76]

eball, thanks for the thread. It made me look into getting the iPad app--is it really $70 to see the all-22 video?

[Meathead]

The reason the ball hit the turf?

 

Tyson Jackson deflected it ever so slightly as it passed by him and the trajectory changed in an almost imperceptible way. What was a slightly ascending throw, roughly parallel to the turf, was suddenly slowed and angled downward.

interesting. now i have to go look at the game a FOURTH time

 

Too many fans are inclined to look for evidence of Fitz's defective play that they are seeing it in instances where it does not exist.

now THAT i am sure of

[BuffaloFan68]

Good analysis but the numbers that keep jumping out at me are: 3 terrible passes out of 12 attempts = 25%

That seems pretty bad to me. I'm concerned that Cleveland won't be respecting our passing game and will focus on shutting down our running game.

[FreakPop]

Good analysis but the numbers that keep jumping out at me are: 3 terrible passes out of 12 attempts = 25%

That seems pretty bad to me. I'm concerned that Cleveland won't be respecting our passing game and will focus on shutting down our running game.

 

Don't know where you pulled these stats from, but the OP has Fitz at 3 bad throws out of 23. That's 13%.

[Kelly the Dog]

Don't know where you pulled these stats from, but the OP has Fitz at 3 bad throws out of 23. That's 13%.

He also had two short passes that were flat dropped, one by Chandler and one by Choice. They wouldn't have picked up much yardage, although Choice could have picked up a first down. Still, he was 10-19, which is a lousy percentage. 12-19 is 63+%. I'm not saying he had a good game, but stats, as usual, can be misleading.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

So with nothing better do after waking up way too early this morning with a head cold, I decided to break out the iPad and watch the coaches film of the KC game, with a specific focus on the play of Fitzpatrick.

 

Mind you, I went into this exercise with the predisposition Fitz had played poorly on Sunday -- or if not poorly, then average at best. From my vantage point in the stands, it seemed as though he had no confidence and was either late or inaccurate on a number of throws.

 

The result of my analysis? I watched every offensive snap Fitz took, and my conclusion is he either missed an opportunity or made an errant throw a total of three times. Here are those plays:

 

1. 3rd and 1, Buffalo 25, 10:11 1st Q -- Fitz rolls right and throws incomplete to Chandler. He actually makes two mistakes on the play -- failing to throw initially when Chandler breaks free, and then badly underthrowing the open TE while moving to his right. Just a bad play; Bills punt.

 

2. 1st and 10, KC 17, 2:12 1st Q -- Fitz is trying to hit Stevie on a quick slant and throws a low and away fastball. This is another throw to his right -- Stevie had a chance to catch it, but not a good chance. The next play was CJ's first TD.

 

Surprisingly, that was it for the 1st half. Fitz went 7/12 but in my opinion the other three incompletions were neither bad decisions nor bad throws. The TD to Chandler was a beautiful throw, and Fitz scrambled several times for positive yardage. He was on time and hit receivers in stride as well.

 

In the 2nd half, the lone bad throw I picked up was on 3rd and 3 from the Buffalo 27 on the first drive of the 3rd Q. Fitz had Stevie wide open in the middle of the zone to his left for an easy 1st down, and he simply missed the throw.

 

That was it. There were a couple of throws to the outside that at first glance appeared to be errant, but when looking at the play from the All-22 perspective you could see the receivers were covered and Fitz essentially threw it away.

 

On the Bills' last TD drive, Fitz was really on target. The rollout and toss to Chandler was perfectly executed, and then the TD to Stevie was thrown in stride so Johnson did not have to stop or stretch for the pass.

 

All in all, I came away from the film with a much different perspective on Fitz's play -- surprisingly so. Three bad plays in 23 dropbacks (including four rushes) doesn't seem so bad. I'd be interested in hearing if others also watched the film and had another impression.

 

Nice recap. I looked at this replay also. My only subtle disagreement with your analysis, was just a different perception.

 

I think the throw should have been right away also, but I feel like when he did throw because the coverage had recovered, he was throwing it away rather than risking an INT.

 

 

[yungmack]

Just want to toss this into the junkyard: Off the top of my head, didn't Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Andrew Luck, and Drew Brees have 3 interception games within the first two weeks? Any others you can think of? Do you know if fans in Denver, NY, Indy and NO are getting ready to commit suicide because of that? Just wondering.

[Billsrhody]

Just want to toss this into the junkyard: Off the top of my head, didn't Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Andrew Luck, and Drew Brees have 3 interception games within the first two weeks? Any others you can think of? Do you know if fans in Denver, NY, Indy and NO are getting ready to commit suicide because of that? Just wondering.

 

Well to be fair.. 3 of those QBs are likely future hall of famers and 1 is a rookie.

 

Fitzpatrick's history lends itself to pessimism.

[NoSaint]

Just want to toss this into the junkyard: Off the top of my head, didn't Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Andrew Luck, and Drew Brees have 3 interception games within the first two weeks? Any others you can think of? Do you know if fans in Denver, NY, Indy and NO are getting ready to commit suicide because of that? Just wondering.

 

did someone get suicide extreme here? he questioned if the week was as good as it looked on paper, and if a couple throws were worth the praise they were getting.

 

maybe i missed a series of posts but i really didnt get the deep end feeling here.

[JESSEFEFFER]

interesting. now i have to go look at the game a FOURTH time

 

Have you watched it yet? Pay attention to when Fitz gets his shoulders turned and hits the near hashes. Look at the position of Fitz compared to Pears, Jackson and Chandler. That's 4 bodies in a line. While the entire home viewing public and most of the stadium could see that Scott was free and clear, Fitz could not. He had his back turned to execute the play fake and when he turns tries to find Chandler he gets a great view of Erik Pear's #79.

 

Can he tell that Chandler is on his route? I suspect this is his option base on the the coverage. Is there a defender over the top? Could there be a 5th body on the hashes? So Fitz does the smart thing and continues to roll until he can better see the field. But Jackson continues to drive Pears deeper into the backfield and toward the sideline. Chandler is taking his route up the field more than across thus keeping Jackson between Fitz and him a few beats longer. Fitz stays patient and continues to roll and eventually clears Pears/Jackson and can see the field clearly. Just as he is getting ready to fire a bullet pass to Chandler, Jackson disengages from Pears and extends his hand toward the blurry flight of the ball which is travleing @ ~65 ft/sec. Jackson's hand and the football appear to be on a space/time intersection and what seemed like a ball destined for Chandler's chest becomes slowed and wobbly and crashes to the turf way short of the mark. Fans throw their fits and Fitz shoulders the blame. Maybe he never saw Jackson's tip or he has decided that he will shoulder all the criticism that comes his way. Either way, Fitz was careful with the ball, patient in waiting to see the field and decisive when he saw what he needed to see. Jackson just happened to make a nice play to get to the ball.

 

now THAT i am sure of

 

This is why if I were on a jury I could not convict on the basis of eyewitness testimony alone. Millions of sets of eyes watched this play, inlcuding some paid analysts, and 99.9% of them think they saw evidence that Fitz was inexplicably indecisive and inherently inaccurate.

 

The Bills have their 24 hour rule but we have nothing better to do footballwise so I'd like to think that I could convince some open minded Bills' fan at lest one, that my breakdown of the play at least plausible and likely 100% spot on.

 

Anyways, time to let it go as we will soon have a new game to over analyze. Off tto Cleveland.

Edited September 22, 2012 by JESSEFEFFER

[Astrobot]

Great analysis! You have convinced me. I also think Fitz is smart enough to learn more from his mistakes than the average QB. If he shows us Good Fitz on Sunday, I will slide QB to a P2 on my Team Needs for the Bills. WR is the heir apparent with TE or OLB the P3. If anyone disagrees, let me know.

 

http://www.drafttek.com/teamneeds2013.asp

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Great analysis! You have convinced me. I also think Fitz is smart enough to learn more from his mistakes than the average QB. If he shows us Good Fitz on Sunday, I will slide QB to a P2 on my Team Needs for the Bills. WR is the heir apparent with TE or OLB the P3. If anyone disagrees, let me know.

 

http://www.drafttek....amneeds2013.asp

 

Well, just me, I think QB is the strongest need for the Bills even if Fitz has a good year. I understand why the Bills haven't moved on one - too many holes - but now many of those holes are in a way towards being filled, and they need, if nothing else, a very promising developmental QB for the future.

 

I agree with OLB but also MLB. We need better LB all around.

[FreakPop]

Have you watched it yet? Pay attention to when Fitz gets his shoulders turned and hits the near hashes. Look at the position of Fitz compared to Pears, Jackson and Chandler. That's 4 bodies in a line. While the entire home viewing public and most of the stadium could see that Scott was free and clear, Fitz could not. He had his back turned to execute the play fake and when he turns tries to find Chandler he gets a great view of Erik Pear's #79.

 

Can he tell that Chandler is on his route? I suspect this is his option base on the the coverage. Is there a defender over the top? Could there be a 5th body on the hashes? So Fitz does the smart thing and continues to roll until he can better see the field. But Jackson continues to drive Pears deeper into the backfield and toward the sideline. Chandler is taking his route up the field more than across thus keeping Jackson between Fitz and him a few beats longer. Fitz stays patient and continues to roll and eventually clears Pears/Jackson and can see the field clearly. Just as he is getting ready to fire a bullet pass to Chandler, Jackson disengages from Pears and extends his hand toward the blurry flight of the ball which is travleing @ ~65 ft/sec. Jackson's hand and the football appear to be on a space/time intersection and what seemed like a ball destined for Chandler's chest becomes slowed and wobbly and crashes to the turf way short of the mark. Fans throw their fits and Fitz shoulders the blame. Maybe he never saw Jackson's tip or he has decided that he will shoulder all the criticism that comes his way. Either way, Fitz was careful with the ball, patient in waiting to see the field and decisive when he saw what he needed to see. Jackson just happened to make a nice play to get to the ball.

 

 

 

This is why if I were on a jury I could not convict on the basis of eyewitness testimony alone. Millions of sets of eyes watched this play, inlcuding some paid analysts, and 99.9% of them think they saw evidence that Fitz was inexplicably indecisive and inherently inaccurate.

 

The Bills have their 24 hour rule but we have nothing better to do footballwise so I'd like to think that I could convince some open minded Bills' fan at lest one, that my breakdown of the play at least plausible and likely 100% spot on.

 

Anyways, time to let it go as we will soon have a new game to over analyze. Off tto Cleveland.

 

Great analysis. When I first saw that play happen too, I also thought Fitz couldn't see Chandler due to the 2 big guys right in his way. I also thought he just dumped the ball, playing it safe because he couldn't tell if Chandler was alone, but I did not catch the ball being tipped.

 

On the surface I can see where everyone with a few beers in them would B word and complain about Fitz on that play. It's too bad Fitz didn't have a helmet cam, like the old XFL, so we could have seen exactly what Fitz saw on that play.