All-22 Coaches Film -- Analysis of Fitz Week Two

[Meathead]

Fitz himself said after the game, "Obviously that first one was a bad throw." I heard him say it. It's on bills.com or GR in one of the interviews.

i am aware of that, but that still doesnt mean he didnt throw it away on purpose. the 'throw' in his mind includes the entire process, from read to reaction to actually throwing the ball. he didnt read or react quickly enough, and so decided to throw it where it wouldnt get picked

 

 

Answer: "First throw of the game wasn’t a good one, it was one of those game where I was asked to manage the game and not turn the ball over."

 

which when i heard this only confirmed that he meant to throw the ball away - he is making sure he avoids taking the chance trying to drop the ball between two onrushing defenders coming from behind and in front of chandler

 

id bet money that if you asked him over a beer hed admit he really was more concerned about not throwing the pick than completing that pass

 

the only point im making is that people are way overreacting to that play, giving it far too much precidence over everything else he did that game. bottom line is he did not turn the ball over, which included being extremely conservative not trying to drop that 'throw' in a situation similar to what burned them badly last game

[Billshank Redemption]

alright so I bought all-22 this morning and after watching it this morning this is what I gathered: (ill do fitz first for the purpose of this thread)

Fitz wasnt as bad as I thought he was, but certainly wasnt as good as this thread is describing. I agree that on a couple plays he definitely didn't have anyone to throw too and actually made the right move either throwing it somewhere only his receiver could catch it or just running right away. That being said on 4-7 occasions I noticed a wide open man that he either didnt throw too or just underthrew in general. Besides the chandler play the worst one was the stevie in the red zone which wouldve and shouldve gone for a T.D. While his throw to chandler on the P.A was excellent his best throw by far was the one to brad smith. It had plenty of zip, it was the correct read, and it was placed beautifully. He also did a very good job I thought of diagnosing the pressure. Overall on a 1-10 scale of the game I would give him a 6.5. He just didnt do anything amazing and he really only had 2-3 "Great" throws on the day when there were opportunities for more.

 

Anyway for my other observations:

Offense

Cordy Glenn: This kid is the real deal. Had only one time where Hali beat him and on that play Levitre immediately stepped to the left and knocked Hali off his feet to neutralize the pressure. He was a pleasure to watch, equally lethal in both run and pass protection and seems to have great communication with Levitre. Also is incredibly fast and has excellent ability to move downfield as was shown by the long spiller run.

Levitre: Not his best day honestly but still played great. This o line has such good chemistry that I noticed when one man got beat it seemed like the other immediately stepped up to help out.

Wood: Still doesnt look 100% but again played great, once he gets even more healthy this line will be lethal.

Urbik/Pears-Both played excellent and held their blocks all game. Pears seemed to struggle slightly against the run but would be good enough to be a strong side blocker on another team.

 

Spiller:I honestly think he is the most dynamic player we have had since thurman thomas, he is that good and looking at the film you can see why, he is incredibly quick and is developing patience that will make him a special player

Choice: Seemed to have a little spring in his step and is a more then capable rb-2 while fred is out.

Chandler: Really glad that they are getting him more involved in the passing game as there were many more times fitz could have thrown to him as he almost always seemed open. I think he will increase his production as the year goes on and finish as the teams number 2 receiver.

 

Defense:

Gilmore-looked great after a crappy weak one. They went after him all day and he held his own, really looks like he could be special and was especially physical compared with williams.

Aaron Williams: didnt look too good to me, doesnt have the speed or physicality as gilmore and its clear he is nowhere near his level.

McGee- just looked straight up weak, his speed seems there he just doesnt seem to have his strength back, im hoping the more he plays the better he will be.

Moats-noticed him a couple times, was all over the field and played very well IMO

Sheppard-struggled to shed blocks as well as read run plays. Wasnt that impressed but on the blitz where cassel just kneeled down he came flying in as it was similar to the bills eagles play that he did that last year.

Defensive Line:

Mark Anderson-A hugeeee difference maker every time he was on the field. We got this guy to rush the passer but atleast in that game he was so much more then that. Was all over the place causing pressure, dropping into coverage, and setting the seam on the run and did it all very effectively. Really happy we got this guy.

Kyle Williams/Marcell Dareus- its honestly scary how good these two are. Never take plays off and always are wreaking havoc. Bravo to both of them as them and anderson were the 3 best defensive players on the field.

Mario- played very sluggish in the 1st quarter but as it went on I saw his effort turn on and though he was being double teamed he was instrumental in the sacks and cassel fumble as he forced them over to dareus. That being said he wasnt double teamed the whole game, in fact dareus and kyle williams were seeing the majority of the double teams and were dominating them. overall i give him a B for the afternoon the worst of the starting for. Im sorry for the guy who made the thread for him but were paying him a million dollars a game.

Depth of D-Line: Both Spencer Johnson and Carrington were all over the place when they got there chance and provided great depth for dareus and williams. I was actually incredibly excited to see that because it showed me that we really do have some depth on d line.

 

Hope that helped if theres anything you guys want, let me know.

Edited September 19, 2012 by Billshank Redemption

[Billsrhody]

The eye test was that he was terrible in the NY Jet game along with every most other player on the team not named CJ, and that his team was up 35-3 when they shut down the offense in the KC game. No one can deny that he had a poor game on opening day, and no one reasonably can deny that he was fine as far as his stewardship in the second game, and he didn't make any major mistakes. He made a couple of extraordinary throws and a couple of horrendous throws, but he did what was asked of him and he didn't need to do any more. You cannot say that he wouldn't have played well if the game wasn't a blowout, he made a lot of plays on his arm and his legs and in his head that led to that 28-3 lead.

 

I do think he was fine as far as his stewardship in the second game. He certainly did not make any major mistakes. However, I dont recall seeing the extraordinary throws you're referring to, unless our opinion differs on the definition of the word. He did make some plays, but he also missed some opportunities.

 

And you're right, I cant say he wouldnt have played well under different circumstances, I'm just judging what I saw.

 

Ask Tom Brady if he's ever missed an easy throw. He has.

 

Anyway, I think it's perfectly rational to observe Brady's body of work and be hyper-critical of Fitz by way of comparison.

 

If Brady is the standard, I suggest you close your eyes when Fitz is on TV.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

You're right, Brady probably has missed an easy throw every once in a while, but no where near as much as Fitz does.

[K-9]

... You're right, Brady probably has missed an easy throw every once in a while, but no where near as much as Fitz does.

 

You're not suggesting that Fitz isn't as good as Tom Brady, are you?

 

GO BILLS!!!

[The Big Cat]

How about the eye test?

 

What did Fitz do that was worthy of one of the top performances of week 2?

 

 

 

I'm not going to repost all of the evidence that I've posted throughout this thread. If you want you can go back and read it.

 

Except your "evidence" has either been a.) roundly acknowledged by the OP or b.) is based on your own conflated and/or false perceptions.

 

Let me put it another way:

I have "evidence" that the bicycle I rode to work today is actually a flying Dolrean, like the one from Back to the Future Part 2.

 

I don't care what you say, it's a flying Dolrean, like the one from Back to the Future Part 2.

 

You cannot possibly say anything to convince me it's not a flying Dolrean, like the one from Back to the Future Part 2.

[Billsrhody]

You're not suggesting that Fitz isn't as good as Tom Brady, are you?

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

 

Except your "evidence" has either been a.) roundly acknowledged by the OP or b.) is based on your own conflated and/or false perceptions.

 

Let me put it another way:

I have "evidence" that the bicycle I rode to work today is actually a flying Dolrean, like the one from Back to the Future Part 2.

 

I don't care what you say, it's a flying Dolrean, like the one from Back to the Future Part 2.

 

You cannot possibly say anything to convince me it's not a flying Dolrean, like the one from Back to the Future Part 2.

 

Thank you for the visual example haha.

 

So the fact that he completed less than 60% of his passes and missed badly on a few easy throws means nothing?

I'm not saying that Fitz had a bad game. I'm just saying that he still has some issues. I'm not exactly sure what you're criticizing me for.

[sllib olaffub]

I can appreciate an objective attempt at looking at Fitz. There are a lot of different ways to look at him, and evaluate his play, and finally to determine whether he was/is really good, bad, or in-between. You could theoretically see a QB go 23 of 30 passes for 330 yards, yet if those 7 missed passes are critical interceptions and failed 3rd downs, the statistics can skew the actual damage. Then again, a QB could go 13 of 30, have some terrible passes on 1st and 2nd downs, and end up winning a game with some yards, touchdowns, and no interceptions.

 

I had real hopes Lee would transform Fitz - but, what I've come to believe (I know it is still early) is that Fitz is trying too hard to throw correctly - that is, his mechanics are still in his mind, still something he's concentrating on - and because of this we're seeing what appears to be a worse Fitz, at times, than before. I think he's always going to be inconsistent. I think it is due to his physical ability, or lack thereof. Nevertheless, he will be hot at times, and win some. Unfortunately, he's going to also have games where he misses the passes that count the most, where he contributes a lot to losses. And, what's worse, I fear he'll have more of those games than not, unless we're able to play a totally different type of game, running a lot more, passing a lot less, and playing much better D.

 

He is what he is - middle of the road, and certainly not top 12 even. With our O-line finally young and good, set to be a top O-line for years to come, and with good RB's for another 3 or more years, I think it is time to go get that rookie QB next year. He'll be able to wait if he has to, and when he is ready he'll have all that a young QB wants - Defense, good O-line, good RB's, and even a decent TE.

 

Until then - I think the only thing that changes the Bills going after a top QB next year is if Fitz takes this team into the playoffs, and doesn't blow it once there - it's Fitz's year to prove what he's got.

[NoSaint]

 

 

 

 

 

Thank you for the visual example haha.

 

So the fact that he completed less than 60% of his passes and missed badly on a few easy throws means nothing?

I'm not saying that Fitz had a bad game. I'm just saying that he still has some issues. I'm not exactly sure what you're criticizing me for.

 

i get what your saying. i think last week id have been called a fitz homer, and this week id be called a hater by providing pretty similar takes on him as a qb.

 

he is what he is, a middle of the pack guy.

 

his stats last week look a lot better than that, but the eyes saw things that match the track record and say he will probably continue to be the middle of the pack guy.

 

i dont think youve been near as negative as a lot of others have taken your posts. fitz had a solid game, but i wont say it ever gave that "wow factor"

 

he made the plays he was supposed to and avoided the killer ones and thats a big deal in the nfl, but its not something that makes me suspect hes not the same qb hes been for the last decade.

 

i like the guy, im cool to ride with him this year. im enjoying the win, but likewise im not feeling up to heaping praise on him. i dont think theres anything wrong with that and i think your feeling in that same realm of thoughts.

[Kelly the Dog]

The only change that David Lee is trying to get Fitz to do are with his footwork on throws to his left. They have both said it straight out. The bad pass was rolling to his right. He missed a couple other throws. One pass to Chandler was right in his hands and he dropped it (granted it was a short throw but it would change his pass percentage. The pass and run to Chandler was an incredible throw. The TD to Chandler was a lot harder than it looked either at the game or in the regular replays. He can't do more than he is asked to, and if he would have hit every single pass he threw, we would have been up 42-3 instead of 35-3.

[Rockinon]

Here it is plain and simple. If you are content with being 8-8, 7-9, and maybe a long shot of 9-7 then Fitz (the best BACKUP in the league) is your man. If you are sick of not making the playoffs, or wanting to have a fighting chance if they DO make the playoffs at 9-7 then Fitz is NOT your man.

 

FItz is capable of 2 types of games. BAD games and WELL MANAGED games. That is what he has shown in 7 years in the league. The rest of the team is built to a much higher standard that Fitzpatrick the Football Player (not the man who is a great teammate). Keep using him as a "game manager" and hope you do not fall behind to often in games as they did against the Jets. Asking Fitzpatrick to bring you back in a game is way to much. All that it does is build his "garbage stats" and give everyone on here continued false hope as they seem to forget quickly about previous weeks and previous seasons.

That's it, plain and simple, huh? You sure are going to be surprised when the Bills win the division.

[Kelly the Dog]

In Chan's press conference today they asked him about the Bills being perfect in the redzone this year, and the first thing he said was that Fitz is just so smart reading the defenses and knowing where to go with the ball.

 

Eric Wood has consistently said that Fitz calls the line blocking assignments at the line a bunch of times instead of Wood himself, because he is just so smart and he sees what the defenses are going to do. That is an element that cannot be underestimated and yet he gets no credit as far as his QB play goes for stuff like that. And this is on running plays, too.

[K-9]

In Chan's press conference today they asked him about the Bills being perfect in the redzone this year, and the first thing he said was that Fitz is just so smart reading the defenses and knowing where to go with the ball.

 

Eric Wood has consistently said that Fitz calls the line blocking assignments at the line a bunch of times instead of Wood himself, because he is just so smart and he sees what the defenses are going to do. That is an element that cannot be underestimated and yet he gets no credit as far as his QB play goes for stuff like that. And this is on running plays, too.

 

I don't know about anyone else, but I've been giving Fitz credit for reading defenses since he's been our starting QB. What he did against the Ravens in 2010 should be required viewing for anyone interested in the position. He thoroughly fooled Lewis and Reed on several occasions during that game. It's when I knew he was going to put us in the best play possible at the line of scrimmage and I think that's when Chan really trusted him with the keys to the car as well.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Alphadawg7]

Well, alpha, thanks for the somewhat backhanded compliment, but you've really got it all wrong. First of all, I plainly admitted I expected to see a lousy Fitz performance so the thought that I did this to convince anyone of Fitz's greatness (or even adequacy) is a false premise. I was honestly surprised at how competent and in control he looked, because I had the opposite impression live (i.e., in the stadium). I do believe the home crowd was waiting for something bad to happen.

 

As for your comments I've bolded above, it's really not that difficult to go look at the 10 completions for the game and conclude you're simply incorrect.

 

I do not have the qualifications of an "expert" film analyst, and I think I made it pretty clear these are only my impressions. I certainly hope my original post didn't come across as an insult to anyone -- reading it back I don't see how it would. You, however, seem to have an axe to grind. Best of luck to you.

 

I think you misunderstood my intention behind my post. I certainly meant no back handed compliment or any insult to you. I like the thread and have no issue with you or of your posting of your analysis in general...I said your statements are inaccurate for the way people are running away with them because they are incomplete. Your original post implies he had only 3 bad pass attempts, then all of a sudden everyone starts piling on saying that its absolute truth essentially and that if you are critical of Fitz you don't understand the game of football, also something untrue. There is way more to a pass than rather is it just complete or incomplete, and there are people in here now bashing people critical of Fitz saying they know nothing about football because you said there are only 3 bad passes. I was responding to the whole, not just you.

 

And I know you are saying here now that you have no expertise on the subject, put your post title and the way you wrote the post suggests something else and posters have been responding accordingly. My biggest issue in terms of what I did not agree on was that you seem to be mostly critical of the incompletes and did not imply you spent much time on the completed passes. As I watched the game back again, I was already at 6 bad passes in the first half alone because there were some completed ones that were not good passes at all to go along with some of his awful passes.

 

Again, I meant you not intentional disrespect nor did I have an ax to grind, so I apologize if you took it that way. Definitely do not want to discourage you from sharing your thoughts, I just felt that other posters were now running away and bashing people who are not happy with how Fitz has played because you said he had only 3 bad passes. People who didn't even take the time to do there own analysis or even know what to look for.

 

I was simply disagreeing with your assessment that there essentially only 3 bad throws, which is just not what I saw out there at all.

 

To the Fitz bashers:

 

What do we do now? We have a team that is playoff capable on paper, but some seem set on the fact that Fitz won't let it happen. Do we force TJ into the position? Do we try Thigpen? Do we sign someone who is a FA? Trade for someone else's backup?

 

For all the whining about Fitz, I pretty much never see any solutions offered.

 

No solutions offered? We have been praying to draft a QB for years, they just never do. We are not the ones preventing or lacking solutions...

[Malazan]

Also I like engaging in discussions on this message board.. I dont know why people get all bent out of shape when people do that.

 

Except, you're not engaging in a discussion. People present actual facts to you and you just ignore them to keep ranting. You're like a kid in walmart running around with arms flailing, screaming saying you're having a discussion with your parents about the toy they won't buy you.

 

Your posts don't have any analysis or actual plays that you have issues with...it's just wild, babbling.

 

Please, start discussing, we'd love to have you join us.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

David Lee is quoted as saying Fitz is one of the best he's ever seen at looking the defense off. In fact, he does it so well Lee surmised that was one of the reasons he was losing some accuracy.

 

Yeah, but Lee should be fired. so what does he know. Our TBD guys know much more about football and the Bills players than the coaches who get paid to work with them. <=sarcasm

 

ive watched the game three times now and im convinced he threw that ball in the dirt on purpose

 

yeah, he is way late on throwing to what initially is a wide open chandler. he sort of half pumps, making it even later, and then decides to just end the play instead of taking another chance trying to throw over the top on a late ball with the defender closing fast

 

you can tell hes throwing it into the ground on purpose by his throwing motion, its short and choppy with no follow through, exactly like what you do when you mean to throw the ball in the dirt

 

so certainly not a good play for him, and he did still have the chance to arc it over the top to chandler. but after getting burned by two late throw picks last week i can see why he decided to just cut their losses and intentionally ground the ball. until he has confidence in his new mechanics and is sure he can make those passes, im very supportive of him just throwing it away like that

 

Interesting take, I'll go back and look at that play again. It was likely a good call for everyone (the fans, the team, Fitz himself) to do anything to avoid starting the game with another pick.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

And we've kind of devolved into a place that fits with the old discussion that fans with the 22 will think they know a lot more than they really do.

 

What's Your Point? Don't we have fans without the 22, who think they know a lot more than they really do?

[NoSaint]

 

 

What's Your Point? Don't we have fans without the 22, who think they know a lot more than they really do?

 

The point is that the worry, which most accept as very true, is atleast the fan realized how limited they were when they couldn't physically see everything.

 

Now we see the players but in the grand scheme we still see very little but it's harder to grasp that we don't know even the basics of what we are really watching sometimes. The fan going off tv tape is apt to be a bit more humble in their assertions where the guy that thinks he's seeing everything is more likely to be bordering on arrogant in their breakdown. I've caught myself some with it admittedly.

 

Looking at the 22 in a vacuum it's easy to say "fitz made the wrong read" but really we don't have any idea what read he was asked to make. Just because a guy on the right sideline was open doesn't mean he was in the right spot, got there at the right time, or was ever within the first few options for instance but joe fan is apt to say "dude that qb sucks cause he missed that open guy." same to be said for nearly any position.

 

Obviously we do this some already but it gives us a ton more chances to make asses of ourselves by proclaiming we get things we probably don't.

 

It's a blessing and a curse to be afforded the extra views. It's much harder to catch yourself before walking into a conclusion that would easily get you laughed at by the coach or player that knows what's being asked.

Edited September 20, 2012 by NoSaint

[JESSEFEFFER]

The reason Fitz did not throw the ball when everyone could see Chandler was open?

 

Fitz couldn't see him because Tyson Jackson (and Eric Pears initially) was/were between him and Chandler during most of the roll out starting at the hash mark.

 

The reason the ball hit the turf?

 

Tyson Jackson deflected it ever so slightly as it passed by him and the trajectory changed in an almost imperceptible way. What was a slightly ascending throw, roughly parallel to the turf, was suddenly slowed and angled downward.

 

It's tough to fault Fitz for mistakenly thinking he had cleared Jackson when Steve Beuerlein, most of the 70,000 in attendance and the millions watching at home didn't even consider Jackson to be a threat to the play and most of us continue to miss it even after watching countless replays over the last 4 days.

 

Trust me, Tyson Jackson tipped this pass and all the Fitzteria over this one play is a sign that collectively we don't know wtf we are talking about. Too many fans are inclined to look for evidence of Fitz's defective play that they are seeing it in instances where it does not exist. I suppose this will be a season long theme.

[FreakPop]

The reason Fitz did not throw the ball when everyone could see Chandler was open?

 

Fitz couldn't see him because Tyson Jackson (and Eric Pears initially) was/were between him and Chandler during most of the roll out starting at the hash mark.

 

The reason the ball hit the turf?

 

Tyson Jackson deflected it ever so slightly as it passed by him and the trajectory changed in an almost imperceptible way. What was a slightly ascending throw, roughly parallel to the turf, was suddenly slowed and angled downward.

 

It's tough to fault Fitz for mistakenly thinking he had cleared Jackson when Steve Beuerlein, most of the 70,000 in attendance and the millions watching at home didn't even consider Jackson to be a threat to the play and most of us continue to miss it even after watching countless replays over the last 4 days.

 

Trust me, Tyson Jackson tipped this pass and all the Fitzteria over this one play is a sign that collectively we don't know wtf we are talking about. Too many fans are inclined to look for evidence of Fitz's defective play that they are seeing it in instances where it does not exist. I suppose this will be a season long theme.

 

This is true. Haters grasp at any imperfections and say see see, Fitz sucks. I don't think Fitz is anything more than an average QB and if the Bills can upgrade the position in the off season they should, but it's obvious to me the haters don't know a lot about playing QB in the NFL even though they think they know everything, and will tell you as much. Right Alpha.

[Mike in Syracuse]

Years ago, when Kelly was the QB I went to a Bills game and sat in the endzone just a couple of rows up. On one of their possessions the Bills started a drive from about their five yard line. From that angle, even slightly elevated in the stands, you get a full appreciation for what a QB has to go through to throw a pass. Frankly I was amazed that they're ever able to complete one, it's just a mass of bodies, arms and big men.