All-22 Coaches Film -- Analysis of Fitz Week Two

[FreakPop]

Look, Fitz did enough to win the game against KC and #1 was not turning the ball over. This is exactly how we are going to need to play in order to win games with him - strong running game and good defense.

 

Has Fitz completed a long pass yet that wasn't the result of YAC? Until he does, teams are going to crowd the short routes.

 

Also, Fitz has been absolutely awful on the out routes. His arm strength really gets tested an his accuracy falls as a result.

 

As long as Chan doesn't get too pass happy (a big if) I think Fitz can pay well enough to win games but I don't think he is the type of QB who can take over a game and throw for 400 yards.

 

RTB

 

Hogwash

[Dorkington]

If he stink it up this weekend, this topic will be revisit! He was average against the Chiefs, I was at that nightmare of a game he had against the Jets. And truthfully, feel however you may, that's the real Fitzs. The guy is beyond inconsistent. Until he prove he can be better than average against good or decent teams. He's garbage...

 

Average is a QB rating of 120? When did that happen?

[Billsrhody]

All in all, I came away from the film with a much different perspective on Fitz's play -- surprisingly so. Three bad plays in 23 dropbacks (including four rushes) doesn't seem so bad. I'd be interested in hearing if others also watched the film and had another impression.

 

I would argue that those 3 bad plays made his play in that game very average.

 

3/23 = 13% our QB shouldnt be missing easy throws 13% of the time. The 1st miss to chandler was way off on a very easy throw. The 2nd wasn't a terrible pass but still missed. The 3rd throw was another easy throw that he missed badly.

 

Also, the TD pass to Chandler looked like a poor pass to me. Did you get a chance to look at that with the 22-angle? I'm curious because it seemed like he had a huge window and came very close to underthrowing Chandler.

 

I appreciate the analysis though, thanks for putting that together.

[Coach Tuesday]

Did you happen to notice that the long completion to Chandler was the exact same play (so far as I can tell) that Fitz missed on 3rd and 1 on the first drive? The first time they ran it, as you pointed out, Fitz just didn't throw it soon enough - Chan was wide open when Fitz came out of the fake, but for some reason Fitz held onto the ball until the coverage appeared. IMO Fitz was (and is) too worried about getting his footwork set, etc. You can tell he's out there thinking too much about his mechanics, which is only natural. It'll get better. In fact, it did get better during the game, as he hit that play for a huge gain later on in the game.

[PS 56]

Fitz has had a particular style or method of play his entire professional life. Along comes a new quarterback coach, David Lee, who is attempting to change the bad and replace it with the good. This is going to be tough to do because old habits take a while to die off. It's like correcting a golf swing. You over think everything you are being told; i.e. position of hands, balance, etc. etc. and shank your drive into the weeds. So much for lessons. It is my hope we will see improvements in Fritz's play over time. The question is how much time will be required.

[Dan]

If he stink it up this weekend, this topic will be revisit! He was average against the Chiefs, I was at that nightmare of a game he had against the Jets. And truthfully, feel however you may, that's the real Fitzs. The guy is beyond inconsistent. Until he prove he can be better than average against good or decent teams. He's garbage...

Yes, the real Fitz is the one with 3ints, no way it could be the one with 0ints and 2 TDs. Brilliant analysis!

 

Fitz, does appear to be struggling this year to this point. However, people forget or neglect the fact that all QBs (and other players) struggle from time to time. Every QB throws interceptions, bad passes, or just plain makes a bad decision during a game. Every one. To expect perfection in every game and on every series is absurd. And that's precisely what too many people expect.

 

Is Fitz a top 5 QB in the league? No. But, that's ok. If he can play as well as he did on Sunday and continue to improve, we'll be fine with him.

[Garion]

Great analysis

[eball]

I would argue that those 3 bad plays made his play in that game very average.

 

3/23 = 13% our QB shouldnt be missing easy throws 13% of the time. The 1st miss to chandler was way off on a very easy throw. The 2nd wasn't a terrible pass but still missed. The 3rd throw was another easy throw that he missed badly.

 

Also, the TD pass to Chandler looked like a poor pass to me. Did you get a chance to look at that with the 22-angle? I'm curious because it seemed like he had a huge window and came very close to underthrowing Chandler.

 

I appreciate the analysis though, thanks for putting that together.

 

I looked again, and it DOES appear the pass in the 3rd quarter was deflected...so there were really only two bad plays all game (and both came early).

 

The Chandler TD was a beautiful throw -- the All-22 shows it brilliantly.

 

Can't buy into your "average" assessment on this one; the film doesn't lie.

[HeHateMe]

I think what is getting lost in all of this is we got the Win...

 

Those missed 3rd down throws could have costed the team in a close game.. and I expect those types of throws will end up costing the Bills in some of the games coming up.

 

Yea you are supporting him now because 2 TDs and 0 Ints looks good in a win. The reality is that this game was a blowout and Fitz didn't have to do a whole lot because Spiller was huge. The Stevie TD was a huge bust on the Chiefs part on a short pass to a wide open receiver.

[hondo in seattle]

So with nothing better do after waking up way too early this morning with a head cold, I decided to break out the iPad and watch the coaches film of the KC game, with a specific focus on the play of Fitzpatrick.

 

Mind you, I went into this exercise with the predisposition Fitz had played poorly on Sunday -- or if not poorly, then average at best. From my vantage point in the stands, it seemed as though he had no confidence and was either late or inaccurate on a number of throws.

 

The result of my analysis? I watched every offensive snap Fitz took, and my conclusion is he either missed an opportunity or made an errant throw a total of three times. Here are those plays:

 

1. 3rd and 1, Buffalo 25, 10:11 1st Q -- Fitz rolls right and throws incomplete to Chandler. He actually makes two mistakes on the play -- failing to throw initially when Chandler breaks free, and then badly underthrowing the open TE while moving to his right. Just a bad play; Bills punt.

 

2. 1st and 10, KC 17, 2:12 1st Q -- Fitz is trying to hit Stevie on a quick slant and throws a low and away fastball. This is another throw to his right -- Stevie had a chance to catch it, but not a good chance. The next play was CJ's first TD.

 

Surprisingly, that was it for the 1st half. Fitz went 7/12 but in my opinion the other three incompletions were neither bad decisions nor bad throws. The TD to Chandler was a beautiful throw, and Fitz scrambled several times for positive yardage. He was on time and hit receivers in stride as well.

 

In the 2nd half, the lone bad throw I picked up was on 3rd and 3 from the Buffalo 27 on the first drive of the 3rd Q. Fitz had Stevie wide open in the middle of the zone to his left for an easy 1st down, and he simply missed the throw.

 

That was it. There were a couple of throws to the outside that at first glance appeared to be errant, but when looking at the play from the All-22 perspective you could see the receivers were covered and Fitz essentially threw it away.

 

On the Bills' last TD drive, Fitz was really on target. The rollout and toss to Chandler was perfectly executed, and then the TD to Stevie was thrown in stride so Johnson did not have to stop or stretch for the pass.

 

All in all, I came away from the film with a much different perspective on Fitz's play -- surprisingly so. Three bad plays in 23 dropbacks (including four rushes) doesn't seem so bad. I'd be interested in hearing if others also watched the film and had another impression.

 

Thanks eball. That's an encouraging analysis.

 

But if Fitz isn't the problem, what is? A passing attack that only completes 10 in 19 passes isn't as efficient as it ought to be.

[Billsrhody]

I looked again, and it DOES appear the pass in the 3rd quarter was deflected...so there were really only two bad plays all game (and both came early).

 

The Chandler TD was a beautiful throw -- the All-22 shows it brilliantly.

 

Can't buy into your "average" assessment on this one; the film doesn't lie.

 

First off.. if the throw was tipped, thats still on the QB.

 

Regardless of the throws he missed or didnt, theres more that goes into being a good QB. What about the decisions he made? Did he miss an open guy on those throws where he just "threw it away"? What did he do that makes him worthy of being a good QB?

 

So far everyone is pointing out things that he didnt screw up, but what great throws/decisions did he make?

 

Overall I thought Fitz played with no confidence and missed some easy throws.

[K-9]

First off.. if the throw was tipped, thats still on the QB.

 

Regardless of the throws he missed or didnt, theres more that goes into being a good QB. What about the decisions he made? Did he miss an open guy on those throws where he just "threw it away"? What did he do that makes him worthy of being a good QB?

 

So far everyone is pointing out things that he didnt screw up, but what great throws/decisions did he make?

 

Overall I thought Fitz played with no confidence and missed some easy throws.

 

While his TD pass to Stevie was an easy throw, it was a GREAT decision as he read the coverage sliding to the left (of the offense) to take away his first read, Chandler. So that's at least one GREAT decision he made.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[JÂy RÛßeÒ]

1. 3rd and 1, Buffalo 25, 10:11 1st Q -- Fitz rolls right and throws incomplete to Chandler. He actually makes two mistakes on the play -- failing to throw initially when Chandler breaks free, and then badly underthrowing the open TE while moving to his right. Just a bad play; Bills punt.

As that play developed I yelled out "JUST RUN IT!" I know the DE had disengaged from his block at that point but I think Fitz could have beaten him to the sideline and gained the first down without throwing. To me that was the safer play.

[Billsrhody]

While his TD pass to Stevie was an easy throw, it was a GREAT decision as he read the coverage sliding to the left (of the offense) to take away his first read, Chandler. So that's at least one GREAT decision he made.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

I wouldn't call that a great decision, just the right decision. Stevie was WIDE open and that was one of his easiest throws of the day. It was a 5 yard pass that Stevie took the rest of the way.

[CodeMonkey]

Fitz is what he is, a good game manager. He will make some good throws like the one to Spiller over the middle. But he will miss some ridiculously easy ones like the gimme to Chandler early. I doubt you would ever see a Brady, Rivers, either Manning etc. ever miss something so short and so open so badly. He also has no hope of hitting anything deep consistently. If Gailey can consistently figure out how to have Fitz operate inside those parameters like he did against KC all season, Fitz will be fine.

 

As that play developed I yelled out "JUST RUN IT!" I know the DE had disengaged from his block at that point but I think Fitz could have beaten him to the sideline and gained the first down without throwing. To me that was the safer play.

I saw an interview last night where Gailey said he has told Fitz not to run so much, and when he does run try to run "smarter" (go out of bounds or slide instead of lowering his head as he likes to do). Gailey knows full well what happens to this team if Fitz goes down.

[K-9]

I wouldn't call that a great decision, just the right decision. Stevie was WIDE open and that was one of his easiest throws of the day. It was a 5 yard pass that Stevie took the rest of the way.

 

I said the throw was easy. That has nothing to do with the quality of the decision to throw it to him. He looked off the coverage to his primary and went to his second read. If you need to parse the language, fine, have at it. Let us know when he graduates from 'good' decision making to 'great' decision making. I'm all ears.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Roc Bronson]

 

 

Average is a QB rating of 120? When did that happen?

 

Ok my bad I forgot some take simple things to heart, sorry I used the word "average" in our terms and not football terms. So let's say play Better than "bad" against good or decent teams Better?

[Billsrhody]

I said the throw was easy. That has nothing to do with the quality of the decision to throw it to him. He looked off the coverage to his primary and went to his second read. If you need to parse the language, fine, have at it. Let us know when he graduates from 'good' decision making to 'great' decision making. I'm all ears.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

I'm just saying that making that throw doesn't make him a good QB. All 32 starting QBs in the NFL would have made that throw. He went through his reads like any QB would have.. the protection was great. He saw stevie was wide open and threw him the ball.

 

We both agree it was an easy throw. I disagree that he was "looking the coverage off". I think he just went through his reads like anyone would. I dont think that plays qualifies as a great play by Fitz.

[Roc Bronson]

 

Yes, the real Fitz is the one with 3ints, no way it could be the one with 0ints and 2 TDs. Brilliant analysis!

 

Fitz, does appear to be struggling this year to this point. However, people forget or neglect the fact that all QBs (and other players) struggle from time to time. Every QB throws interceptions, bad passes, or just plain makes a bad decision during a game. Every one. To expect perfection in every game and on every series is absurd. And that's precisely what too many people expect.

 

Is Fitz a top 5 QB in the league? No. But, that's ok. If he can play as well as he did on Sunday and continue to improve, we'll be fine with him.

 

So if say the Browns shut down our run game, and the ball is in Fitz's hands you'll be ok with that? I will let you analyze its not my thing. Apparently he has proven something to some, but i'm still skeptical. that's all i'm saying. And i'm quite sure i'm not alone here. Its true they all have a bad game, Eli, Peyton, Rodgers, Brady I understand, but you can trust they will fix it, giving us Fitz well he is what he is.. I love the guy will and toughness but come on you feeling some kinda way because I don't trust the guy. My bad!!

[Dan]

I think what is getting lost in all of this is we got the Win...

 

Those missed 3rd down throws could have costed the team in a close game.. and I expect those types of throws will end up costing the Bills in some of the games coming up.

 

Yea you are supporting him now because 2 TDs and 0 Ints looks good in a win. The reality is that this game was a blowout and Fitz didn't have to do a whole lot because Spiller was huge. The Stevie TD was a huge bust on the Chiefs part on a short pass to a wide open receiver.

2 TDs and 0 ints looks good on any day. If you expect your QB to throw 3 or more TDs and no picks each week, you really need to get a grasp on reality.

 

I agree, Fitz needs to improve his play. Also, there will certainly be weeks when he will have to win the game more than just manage it. However, I think its important to keep in mind that no QB wins every week or hits every 3rd down pass or makes zero mistakes. It happens.

 

The issue is does he do more good than bad? And in week 2, I would say Fitz did far more good than bad. If he has 3 bad throws out of 20ish attempts each week, I would take that all season long. Now, will he continue that? Will he improve? Well... that's why they play the games and its what I'll be looking for. But, I won't be looking for perfection which is what far too many people seem to expect - perfection and pro bowl players at every position.