All-22 Coaches Film -- Analysis of Fitz Week Two

[eball]

So with nothing better do after waking up way too early this morning with a head cold, I decided to break out the iPad and watch the coaches film of the KC game, with a specific focus on the play of Fitzpatrick.

 

Mind you, I went into this exercise with the predisposition Fitz had played poorly on Sunday -- or if not poorly, then average at best. From my vantage point in the stands, it seemed as though he had no confidence and was either late or inaccurate on a number of throws.

 

The result of my analysis? I watched every offensive snap Fitz took, and my conclusion is he either missed an opportunity or made an errant throw a total of three times. Here are those plays:

 

1. 3rd and 1, Buffalo 25, 10:11 1st Q -- Fitz rolls right and throws incomplete to Chandler. He actually makes two mistakes on the play -- failing to throw initially when Chandler breaks free, and then badly underthrowing the open TE while moving to his right. Just a bad play; Bills punt.

 

2. 1st and 10, KC 17, 2:12 1st Q -- Fitz is trying to hit Stevie on a quick slant and throws a low and away fastball. This is another throw to his right -- Stevie had a chance to catch it, but not a good chance. The next play was CJ's first TD.

 

Surprisingly, that was it for the 1st half. Fitz went 7/12 but in my opinion the other three incompletions were neither bad decisions nor bad throws. The TD to Chandler was a beautiful throw, and Fitz scrambled several times for positive yardage. He was on time and hit receivers in stride as well.

 

In the 2nd half, the lone bad throw I picked up was on 3rd and 3 from the Buffalo 27 on the first drive of the 3rd Q. Fitz had Stevie wide open in the middle of the zone to his left for an easy 1st down, and he simply missed the throw.

 

That was it. There were a couple of throws to the outside that at first glance appeared to be errant, but when looking at the play from the All-22 perspective you could see the receivers were covered and Fitz essentially threw it away.

 

On the Bills' last TD drive, Fitz was really on target. The rollout and toss to Chandler was perfectly executed, and then the TD to Stevie was thrown in stride so Johnson did not have to stop or stretch for the pass.

 

All in all, I came away from the film with a much different perspective on Fitz's play -- surprisingly so. Three bad plays in 23 dropbacks (including four rushes) doesn't seem so bad. I'd be interested in hearing if others also watched the film and had another impression.

[BillnutinHouston]

Thanks for researching. You know, the masses have already determined that Fitz is terrible so I'm not sure your analysis is going to change any minds. People seem to forget the good plays and focus on the bad, especially when we lose.

Edited September 19, 2012 by BillnutinHouston

[FreakPop]

Thanks for researching. You know, the masses have already determined that Fitz is terrible so I'm not sure your analysis is going to change any minds. People seem to forget the good plays and focus on the bad, especially when we lose.

 

That's because most fans are just fans and don't really know the intricacies of the game. But they all have opinions on what they think they see an know.

[playman]

he just won´t cost us games when he plays like sunday. thats good enough. he will never win us games.

 

but when he plays like the jets game..........

[jimmy10]

There was also a throw at one point to CJ going across the middle... I remember it looked like a nice throw from my perspective in the stands, and watching the game on my DVR yesterday confirmed what i thought I saw. Fitz threw a bullet that hit CJ right in the hands at full stride.

 

All-World he's not, I get that. But I feel like if he can just be adequate, managing the game and not screwing up while our defense continues to treat us to stops and good field position... There's no reason we can't win 7-9 more games this year.

[Maury Ballstein]

Good analysis Eball.....one of the better posts in a while.

 

not going all freakpop and calling the fitz "doubters" dummies who don't understand the intricacies of the game. clearly he has a way to go to keep up with all of the other qb's in this league.

 

Fitz still has tons to prove as the all 22 film on the first game would show an inept stumbling INT machine. 1-1 hopefully we will see more improvement this weekend and move on from there. This is a start. Beat the Jets one time and then you can color me impressed.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

I think there is no doubt that the man in streaky. If you could bottle what he had on those Oakland/New England comebacks last year...

 

But no. I'm entirely happen when "Good Fitz" is able to make some throws, not putting him to too far beyond his comfort zone, and then we run the crap out of the ball to help him. Fitz can also leg it pretty well himself.

[Chandler#81]

Thanks, E-ball! The 'thing' is, his terrible passes seem to happen on 3rd down with a wide open receiver. As the punt team jogs onto the field, Bills fans are left wondering 'what if?' and will this drive-killing boner come back to haunt us later. That crap stays at the forefront of our minds through the game. Thus, we proclaim him Inconsistant.

 

Fitz was critical to some early, come from behind wins last year, so there's expectation that we can count on him when those games play out. Then again, Trent had a couple C-F-B wins too..

[JESSEFEFFER]

So with nothing better do after waking up way too early this morning with a head cold, I decided to break out the iPad and watch the coaches film of the KC game, with a specific focus on the play of Fitzpatrick.

 

Mind you, I went into this exercise with the predisposition Fitz had played poorly on Sunday -- or if not poorly, then average at best. From my vantage point in the stands, it seemed as though he had no confidence and was either late or inaccurate on a number of throws.

 

The result of my analysis? I watched every offensive snap Fitz took, and my conclusion is he either missed an opportunity or made an errant throw a total of three times. Here are those plays:

 

1. 3rd and 1, Buffalo 25, 10:11 1st Q -- Fitz rolls right and throws incomplete to Chandler. He actually makes two mistakes on the play -- failing to throw initially when Chandler breaks free, and then badly underthrowing the open TE while moving to his right. Just a bad play; Bills punt.

 

2. 1st and 10, KC 17, 2:12 1st Q -- Fitz is trying to hit Stevie on a quick slant and throws a low and away fastball. This is another throw to his right -- Stevie had a chance to catch it, but not a good chance. The next play was CJ's first TD.

 

Surprisingly, that was it for the 1st half. Fitz went 7/12 but in my opinion the other three incompletions were neither bad decisions nor bad throws. The TD to Chandler was a beautiful throw, and Fitz scrambled several times for positive yardage. He was on time and hit receivers in stride as well.

 

In the 2nd half, the lone bad throw I picked up was on 3rd and 3 from the Buffalo 27 on the first drive of the 3rd Q. Fitz had Stevie wide open in the middle of the zone to his left for an easy 1st down, and he simply missed the throw.

 

That was it. There were a couple of throws to the outside that at first glance appeared to be errant, but when looking at the play from the All-22 perspective you could see the receivers were covered and Fitz essentially threw it away.

 

On the Bills' last TD drive, Fitz was really on target. The rollout and toss to Chandler was perfectly executed, and then the TD to Stevie was thrown in stride so Johnson did not have to stop or stretch for the pass.

 

All in all, I came away from the film with a much different perspective on Fitz's play -- surprisingly so. Three bad plays in 23 dropbacks (including four rushes) doesn't seem so bad. I'd be interested in hearing if others also watched the film and had another impression.

[Mike in Syracuse]

No one is interested in your objective analysis. No one wants to hear what actually happened on specific plays when you break down the film. We'd much rather be hysterical and read through an endless cacophony of posts telling us just how much Fitz sucks.

 

I implore you to ignore reality and substitute your own next time. We're not happy unless we're miserable!

 

 

FWIW, I think if you re-watch that throw in the 3rd quarter that bounced to Stevie, it was actually tipped at the LOS.

Edited September 19, 2012 by Mike in Syracuse

[Captain Hindsight]

I watched it last night and came to basically the same conclusion. But fear not, my cousin said this will turn into a fitz sucks thread in 3..2...1...

[GG]

So you think the pass to Smith for a long 1st down conversion was a good one, or the other two forced throws to Stevie?

 

If Bills have a game where Fitz throws 20-25 times, then chances are outcome will be good.

[Roc Bronson]

If he stink it up this weekend, this topic will be revisit! He was average against the Chiefs, I was at that nightmare of a game he had against the Jets. And truthfully, feel however you may, that's the real Fitzs. The guy is beyond inconsistent. Until he prove he can be better than average against good or decent teams. He's garbage...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

he just won´t cost us games when he plays like sunday. thats good enough. he will never win us games.

 

but when he plays like the jets game..........

 

Thanks, eball, GREAT analysis. I am soooooo tempted to buy that all 22....I'm just afraid I would never get anything else done.

 

How quickly y'all forget that when we beat Oak and NE early last year, Fitz did in fact, win those games on his arm. He also put us in games, that we later lost, with his am (D couldn't stop). And yeah, he lost some with stupid mistakes later in the year. I don't know what's going on now - if it's scheme that the rest of the league has caught up with, WR route running, Fitz struggling with changed mechanics. If he plays like he did last year he can certainly win us games.

 

So you think the pass to Smith for a long 1st down conversion was a good one, or the other two forced throws to Stevie?

 

If Bills have a game where Fitz throws 20-25 times, then chances are outcome will be good.

 

He already said from all-22 he could see the receivers were covered and Fitz threw it away on those plays.

 

FWIW, I think if you re-watch that throw in the 3rd quarter that bounced to Stevie, it was actually tipped at the LOS.

 

The box score lists that pass as tipped at the LOS

Edited September 19, 2012 by Hopeful

[CBD]

1. 3rd and 1, Buffalo 25, 10:11 1st Q -- Fitz rolls right and throws incomplete to Chandler. He actually makes two mistakes on the play -- failing to throw initially when Chandler breaks free, and then badly underthrowing the open TE while moving to his right. Just a bad play; Bills punt.

 

Was he still carrying out his fake at this point however? Seemed like that at the game but have had no opportunity to rewatch the play. The throw, when made, was bad though.

[Wayne Cubed]

Haven't had a chance yet to watch the All-22 yet, but my thoughts are:

 

-Considering Fitz is 30 years old and has been passing the way he has for many years, 3 errant throws isn't bad.

-I think some fans expect absolutely perfect play from their QB. They also expect the team to score everytime they have the ball.

-Fitz had a couple really nice throws

[jjmac]

FWIW, Fitz had a QB rating of over 120 this week. 2 TDs, no INTs. Doesn't that make for a decent game?

[RunTheBall]

Look, Fitz did enough to win the game against KC and #1 was not turning the ball over. This is exactly how we are going to need to play in order to win games with him - strong running game and good defense.

 

Has Fitz completed a long pass yet that wasn't the result of YAC? Until he does, teams are going to crowd the short routes.

 

Also, Fitz has been absolutely awful on the out routes. His arm strength really gets tested an his accuracy falls as a result.

 

As long as Chan doesn't get too pass happy (a big if) I think Fitz can pay well enough to win games but I don't think he is the type of QB who can take over a game and throw for 400 yards.

 

RTB

[dpberr]

If I remember correctly FJ was on fire in that early stretch last year. His running took pressure off Fitz to make plays in the passing game. I hold Gailey responsible for Fitzpatrick's play against the Jets because of all the exceptionally predictable passing play calls on the first game of the season in the loud stadium of the oppossing team. There was no reason to have him throwing the ball that much that early in the game.

 

If NFL defenses have all adjusted to defending the aerial attack it makes sense more than ever to bludgeon them with a running game until someone forces you to pass.

[Dorkington]

Thanks, E-ball! The 'thing' is, his terrible passes seem to happen on 3rd down with a wide open receiver. As the punt team jogs onto the field, Bills fans are left wondering 'what if?' and will this drive-killing boner come back to haunt us later. That crap stays at the forefront of our minds through the game. Thus, we proclaim him Inconsistant.

 

Fitz was critical to some early, come from behind wins last year, so there's expectation that we can count on him when those games play out. Then again, Trent had a couple C-F-B wins too..

 

I thought I read that our third down conversion percentage was pretty good this year?