LiterateStylish Posted September 17, 2012 Author Posted September 17, 2012 (edited) to run the clock and kick what should be an easy FG? Gostkowski is a well over 80% kicker. At home he was 6/6 in that range last year (and 3/3 in the 30-40 range). you run more plays and you risk turnover, penalty (a hold or sack knocks them to 50+), clock running out with no timeouts. id guess numbers wise, if he thinks his kicker is 90% from that spot, it is a far more reasonable play to make than bill simmons gives credit for. A 42 yard kick with the game on the line is like a 50 yard kick. Statistics show that every yard you get closer your chances of making that field goal go up exponentially. The chance of a fumble is about 2%. Versus about a 7% higher chance of making the Field Goal from 5 yards closer. He could have put his backup QB in the game and QB sneaked it 3 times. The fumble rate on QB sneaks is nearly non-existant and there is no risk of losing yardage. It was a dumb decision and im sure he wishes he could take it back. Edited September 17, 2012 by LiterateStylish
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted September 17, 2012 Posted September 17, 2012 to run the clock and kick what should be an easy FG? Gostkowski is a well over 80% kicker. At home he was 6/6 in that range last year (and 3/3 in the 30-40 range). you run more plays and you risk turnover, penalty (a hold or sack knocks them to 50+), clock running out with no timeouts. id guess numbers wise, if he thinks his kicker is 90% from that spot, it is a far more reasonable play to make than bill simmons gives credit for. its not just fumbles - it could be a penalty too, for example, or a loss of yards. does the chance to get 5 yards (and the corresponding increase in FG percentage) outweigh the risk of losing 3 on a stuffed run? of losing 10 on a hold? of a sack if you pass? a fumble? if theres a 2% chance of fumble (not counting those other more common outcomes), does the shot at getting 5 yards really increase your odds of the kick going in by enough to outweigh it? perhaps, but im guessing its not by a wide margin. Maybe there are more nuances than I estimated, but if Belichick felt Gostkowski was a 90% shot from that distance, he was wrong. 69.7% from the 40-49 distance over the guy's career. And if you want to take Gillette/Away, 7 out of his 14 misses from that distance have been at home. I see your point...I would have tried to advance the ball. In either case, a supposed sports expert like Simmons should dig into the numbers before reacting.
Dante Posted September 17, 2012 Posted September 17, 2012 Cards pass rush got to tom* and the pats* run d looked suspect. Seems like this adds up to a nice win for the Bills in a couple weeks. Hopefully
NoSaint Posted September 17, 2012 Posted September 17, 2012 A 42 yard kick with the game on the line is like a 50 yard kick. Statistics show that every yard you get closer your chances of making that field goal go up exponentially. The chance of a fumble is about 2%. Versus about a 7% higher chance of making the Field Goal from 5 yards closer. He could have put his backup QB in the game and QB sneaked it 3 times. The fumble rate on QB sneaks is nearly non-existant and there is no risk of losing yardage. It was a dumb decision and im sure he wishes he could take it back. so for a chance to increase 7% (remember, thats a chance, not a promised increase of 7%) he is risking for a fumble at 2%, what are the odds of a false start (which would be a similar drop), or a hold (thats a 10 yard loss), etc... i think its much closer than anyone is giving credit for. of course, they could break a long run for a TD too, and i dont want to discount that. im just guessing that worst call in the BB era is highly exaggerated on simmons part. He felt comfortable with his kicker and didnt feel great with his offense (which wasnt that productive yesterday). especially with his shaky line, maybe he just didnt think the numbers worked out based on what he was plugging in (an above average kicker, and a below average line). like i said, i just think its at the very least, much closer than given credit for.
Like A Mofo Posted September 17, 2012 Posted September 17, 2012 I'm sure that there are a few very sad people on this forum, as a result of the Pats* loss. :lol:
Dan Posted September 17, 2012 Posted September 17, 2012 to run the clock and kick what should be an easy FG? Gostkowski is a well over 80% kicker. At home he was 6/6 in that range last year (and 3/3 in the 30-40 range). you run more plays and you risk turnover, penalty (a hold or sack knocks them to 50+), clock running out with no timeouts. id guess numbers wise, if he thinks his kicker is 90% from that spot, it is a far more reasonable play to make than bill simmons gives credit for. remember, the standard im arguing against there is dumbest call of the BB era, not the perfectly optimized call for the situation (which despite hindsight, it may be even be). its not just fumbles - it could be a penalty too, for example, or a loss of yards. does the chance to get 5 yards (and the corresponding increase in FG percentage) outweigh the risk of losing 3 on a stuffed run? of losing 10 on a hold? of a sack if you pass? a fumble? if theres a 2% chance of fumble (not counting those other more common outcomes), does the shot at getting 5 yards really increase your odds of the kick going in by enough to outweigh it? perhaps, but im guessing its not by a wide margin. I seem to recall a Pats* team that would have a 2 or 3 TD lead and still throwing for the endzone in that same situation. Saying its the other teams job to stop them, blah, blah, we're not padding stats. I just find it funny that when they actually needed to score, they stopped themselves and took the "safe" way out. And it bit them in the ass. Poetic justice, if you ask me.
NoSaint Posted September 17, 2012 Posted September 17, 2012 Maybe there are more nuances than I estimated, but if Belichick felt Gostkowski was a 90% shot from that distance, he was wrong. 69.7% from the 40-49 distance over the guy's career. And if you want to take Gillette/Away, 7 out of his 14 misses from that distance have been at home. I see your point...I would have tried to advance the ball. In either case, a supposed sports expert like Simmons should dig into the numbers before reacting. i hear that - im not even going to argue it was the right choice, statistically i dont have the time, energy or resources - i just think it was closer than a gut reaction would show. kind of like him going for it on 4th against the colts a few years ago. truly regardless of if he thought it was 90% from that distance, its really what he thought the gap between that and running the plays (good or bad). the expected outcome was probably pretty close to flat. and by his calculation, it was atleast flat if not a negative to run the plays, as judged by a pretty solid football mind with 24/7 access to his team making that choice. he may not have nailed the right call statistically, but i bet it was probably a reasonable one when everything gets played out (like im sure it will this week). i could be totally wrong though. I seem to recall a Pats* team that would have a 2 or 3 TD lead and still throwing for the endzone in that same situation. Saying its the other teams job to stop them, blah, blah, we're not padding stats. I just find it funny that when they actually needed to score, they stopped themselves and took the "safe" way out. And it bit them in the ass. Poetic justice, if you ask me. No doubt - dont think me saying it might have been the right call takes anything from the fact that i LOVED watching it.
FoCoBB Posted September 17, 2012 Posted September 17, 2012 The best part of the ending of the game was watching the NE fans. After a big win by the Bills, this was a nice "icing on the cake moment" 1. AZ gets a first down to effectively seal the game for AZ. Fans start to leave in a mass exodus. 2. AZ RB fumbles on third down and NE recovers. Fans start to run back into the stadium and to their seats. 3. Woodhead rips of a game winning run. Fans go nuts! Gronk called for a questionable holding call. Fans are ecstatic at one point. Outraged 10 seconds later. 4. Gostowski (who was 4/4 for FG to this point) misses the game winner. Fans leave in mass exodus again. Serves those smug F'ers right!
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted September 17, 2012 Posted September 17, 2012 Funny thing is, while we discuss the merits of BB opting for a 42 yarder over the chance at a 35 yarder, Gostkowski probably would have hit the upright on an extra point with that kick.
NoSaint Posted September 17, 2012 Posted September 17, 2012 Funny thing is, while we discuss the merits of BB opting for a 42 yarder over the chance at a 35 yarder, Gostkowski probably would have hit the upright on an extra point with that kick. it really was ugly. without even seeing the ball, you could tell that was missing by a mile just watching the kicker. i dont know what happened.
LiterateStylish Posted September 17, 2012 Author Posted September 17, 2012 so for a chance to increase 7% (remember, thats a chance, not a promised increase of 7%) he is risking for a fumble at 2%, what are the odds of a false start (which would be a similar drop), or a hold (thats a 10 yard loss), etc... i think its much closer than anyone is giving credit for. of course, they could break a long run for a TD too, and i dont want to discount that. im just guessing that worst call in the BB era is highly exaggerated on simmons part. He felt comfortable with his kicker and didnt feel great with his offense (which wasnt that productive yesterday). especially with his shaky line, maybe he just didnt think the numbers worked out based on what he was plugging in (an above average kicker, and a below average line). like i said, i just think its at the very least, much closer than given credit for. Youre not going to get a false start or a hold on a QB sneak. Youre just making up stuff to prove your point. Belichick was wrong. He HIMSELF probably realizes. Even the best make mistakes.
chris heff Posted September 17, 2012 Posted September 17, 2012 I still cant believe the RB for Arizona (lucky dude)fumbled the ball when all he had to do is go down, but instead on 3 and long he tries to juke with one hand holding the ball, SHOWTIME BABY, dumbass just need to hold on tight and fall down. I thought only the Pats would be so lucky and then SHANK. What a good day of football so far, now the JEST need a loss and the Dolphins MEH.... This was a stupid call by AZ OC. Third and long, take a knee punt and NE has 20 seconds and no time outs. The worst call you could make is attach out even calling a pass is better if it isn't there then take a knee. I almost kicked my TV. Never expected a missed FG, awesome.
MaineMoxie Posted September 17, 2012 Posted September 17, 2012 Gostkowski would have missed from 25 yds. He shanked it bad. PTR On the replay it looked like bad ball placement by the holder, to me. It was leaning heavily to one side.
NoSaint Posted September 17, 2012 Posted September 17, 2012 Youre not going to get a false start or a hold on a QB sneak. Youre just making up stuff to prove your point. Belichick was wrong. He HIMSELF probably realizes. Even the best make mistakes. fine - he shouldve run brady on consecutive qb sneaks instead. it wouldve raised his chance of winning by a wide margin. there is no chance the snap is mishandled, that the ball comes out, his qb takes a hit to the head, or one of the lineman gets antsy and jumps early trying to get a push. there is no chance he gets stonewalled and ends up at the same spot either. if bill belichek followed your approach, he would have 100% without a doubt raised the odds of that kick roughly 7% with zero risk. he clearly does not know his line, his kicker, or situational stats like you do. all i am saying is that i bet the numbers (especially based on how he feels about his guys, not just nfl averages) would play out much closer than any of us expect in a gut reaction. in hindsight he didnt win, and i love it.
LiterateStylish Posted September 17, 2012 Author Posted September 17, 2012 fine - he shouldve run brady on consecutive qb sneaks instead. it wouldve raised his chance of winning by a wide margin. there is no chance the snap is mishandled, that the ball comes out, his qb takes a hit to the head, or one of the lineman gets antsy and jumps early trying to get a push. there is no chance he gets stonewalled and ends up at the same spot either. if bill belichek followed your approach, he would have 100% without a doubt raised the odds of that kick roughly 7% with zero risk. he clearly does not know his line, his kicker, or situational stats like you do. all i am saying is that i bet the numbers (especially based on how he feels about his guys, not just nfl averages) would play out much closer than any of us expect in a gut reaction. in hindsight he didnt win, and i love it. The problem is youre arguing a point that the coach himself probably wouldn't argue.
Bud Adams Posted September 17, 2012 Posted September 17, 2012 New England's offensive line showed itself to be be the weakness of the Patriots. With the loss of Hernandez and sub-par play by Welker (or the fact that the Pats seem to moving away from him), wide receiver has become an issue as well. Bad OL + suspect receiving = future trouble for Stevan Ridley and the running game. I'd be worried if I were a Pats fan. BA
NoSaint Posted September 17, 2012 Posted September 17, 2012 (edited) The problem is youre arguing a point that the coach himself probably wouldn't argue. the coach argued it plenty loud and clear when he made the call. odds are he didnt forget everything he knows about football and his team suddenly. id guess hed say in his head it is still at the very least a close call statistically given what he knew at the time, even if after review of the situation he wouldnt call it the same next time. his special teams let him down on it. Edited September 17, 2012 by NoSaint
KD in CA Posted September 17, 2012 Posted September 17, 2012 I'm sure that there are a few very sad people on this forum, as a result of the Pats* loss. I did have them in the survivor pool.....
NoSaint Posted September 17, 2012 Posted September 17, 2012 (edited) http://www.bostonherald.com/blogs/sports/blitz/index.php/2012/09/17/digging-deeper-to-understand-the-patriots-conservative-approach-during-their-final-drive-against-the-cardinals/ A run down of the situation, including noting all the points I've brought up. Hey, and false starts don't happen on sneaks, but it did happen on their kneel. That's a play that truly should have zero chance. Especially from a TE. He could've held his stance til Tuesday if the kneel was the plan. Edited September 17, 2012 by NoSaint
ColdBlueNorth Posted September 17, 2012 Posted September 17, 2012 I still cant believe the RB for Arizona (lucky dude)fumbled the ball when all he had to do is go down, but instead on 3 and long he tries to juke with one hand holding the ball, SHOWTIME BABY, dumbass just need to hold on tight and fall down. I thought only the Pats would be so lucky and then SHANK. What a good day of football so far, now the JEST need a loss and the Dolphins MEH.... Too funny, and you nailed it. There are a lot of me-first, slow-blinkers in the NFL.
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