Cutler

[Orton's Arm]

Have I knocked Cutler in any other way than pointing to facts? If nothing else, we've seen some of the same people who blame Fitz for just about everything emerge from slumber to apologize for Cutler in every which way. But, why? Because they really like Cutler, or they really hate Fitzpatrick?

 

I've pointed to Cutler's poor game from last night, and how his career has featured a good number of these. How, even teams with lofty playoff aspirations might have their wagons hitched to a horse that isn't all that it's cracked up to be. In response, I've been informed by assorted people that Cutler is head-and-shoulders above Fitzpatrick, and how his career has been hampered by bad OL play or lack of weapons or Mike Martz, etc. If not for any of these factors, we could plug Cutler into the Patriots offense and it wouldn't skip a beat. I've asked for explanations and data to back these claims, and have barely gotten anything. Except for the guy who is talking about yards per reception.

 

I guess you can come to your own conclusion in regards this thread. Maybe I thought a dose of reality outside of the Buffalo Bills bubble that some people live in would be something to spark conversation. So maybe I've accomplished that.

 

By the way, I'm not sure who or what you're referring to in terms of the post blowing up and "reading comprehension" etc.

 

> I've asked for explanations and data to back these claims, and have barely

> gotten anything. Except for the guy who is talking about yards per reception.

 

I have been talking about yards per pass attempt. I couldn't care less about yards per reception.

 

Yards per pass attempt is the single best measurement of a QB's effectiveness.

 

In the past, I thought the single best measurement was QB rating. But then it came to my attention that Kelly Holcomb has a career QB rating of 79.2; whereas John Elway's career QB rating is 79.9. I think Holcomb is underrated, but this is ridiculous! The problem with QB rating is that it takes completion percentage into account. A QB who completes two consecutive 5 yard passes will have a higher QB rating than a QB who goes 1/2 for 10 yards.

 

Different QB ratings, but the same yards per attempt. If one QB emphasizes short, high percentage throws (Holcomb) and another emphasizes longer, lower percentage, higher reward throws (Elway), you can't get an apples-to-apples comparison using completion percentage. That's why you need yards per attempt. Kelly Holcomb has a career yards per attempt of 6.6; compared to John Elway's career yards per attempt of 7.1. Those two QBs were very different in terms of production. Yards per attempt shines a light on that difference in a way QB rating does not. (Incidentally, John Elway is the only franchise QB I've found, from any era, who has a career yards per attempt of less than 7.2.)

 

According to the New York Times regression analysis I mentioned earlier, 80% of variation in teams' win/loss records can be explained by six variables: yards per pass attempt, yards per rushing attempt, and INT percentage. (The other three variables are the defensive analogs to those three.) Yards per pass attempt is three times as important as yards per rushing attempt or interception percentage.

 

In his first year in Chicago, Cutler averaged a disappointing 6.6 yards per attempt. But then over the next three years, he averaged 7.6, 7.4, and 7.4 yards per attempt. Those numbers are in the Manning/Brady category. The fact he achieved such numbers without an offensive line, and with a second- or third-rate WR corps, is truly remarkable. Yards per attempt doesn't measure everything; and his comparatively high INT percentage pulls him out of the Manning/Brady category. But to suggest a comparision between Cutler and Fitzpatrick is absurd.

Edited September 14, 2012 by Edwards' Arm

[Billsrhody]

Have I knocked Cutler in any other way than pointing to facts? If nothing else, we've seen some of the same people who blame Fitz for just about everything emerge from slumber to apologize for Cutler in every which way. But, why? Because they really like Cutler, or they really hate Fitzpatrick?

 

I've pointed to Cutler's poor game from last night, and how his career has featured a good number of these. How, even teams with lofty playoff aspirations might have their wagons hitched to a horse that isn't all that it's cracked up to be. In response, I've been informed by assorted people that Cutler is head-and-shoulders above Fitzpatrick, and how his career has been hampered by bad OL play or lack of weapons or Mike Martz, etc. If not for any of these factors, we could plug Cutler into the Patriots offense and it wouldn't skip a beat. I've asked for explanations and data to back these claims, and have barely gotten anything. Except for the guy who is talking about yards per reception.

 

I guess you can come to your own conclusion in regards this thread. Maybe I thought a dose of reality outside of the Buffalo Bills bubble that some people live in would be something to spark conversation. So maybe I've accomplished that.

 

By the way, I'm not sure who or what you're referring to in terms of the post blowing up and "reading comprehension" etc.

 

Well you could start with...

 

- 18,500 career passing yards

- 192 career TD passes

- against 91 career INTs

- 61% completion percentage

 

How does that compare to Fitz and other mediocre to bad QBs?

[Orton's Arm]

Some in this thread have complained about Cutler's attitude. But lest we forget, Jim Kelly often took an aggressive attitude toward those of his teammates who messed up. He didn't wait until after he'd taken the Bills to the Super Bowl--or even to the playoffs--to adopt that kind of aggressive approach. Did he always handle himself exactly as he should have? Possibly not. But that didn't prevent him from being by far the best QB in Bills' history.

 

Jeff George represented a completely different category of personality problem. George had all the talent in the world. George would sign with a new team, and for a while everything would go well. Practices would be nice and efficient, and George would look good. But then one day George would show up for practice with the same attitude kids have on the last day of school. He would accomplish little, and his lack of urgency would spread amongst his teammates. Sooner or later the coach would confront him; thereby inaugurating the beginning of a personal clash between George and the coach. Bad feelings would spread, and George would sometimes try to subtly undercut his coach's authority. Stuff like this is why Jeff George wasn't necessarily the kind of quarterback you want on your team, even though he had the potential for greatness.

 

Say what you will about Jay Cutler, I have not heard anyone complain about him slacking off at practice, or about his encouraging anyone else to do the same. His personality flaws seem a lot more like Jim Kelly's than they do like Jeff George's.

[starrymessenger]

Anyone who would take Fitz over Jay Cutler either needs a new brain or has an agenda.

[Slayers]

When are some of you going to stop equating "caring" to acting like a cranky toddler? I think pretty much every player who puts on an NFL uniform cares about winning, but not all of them stomp around and shove their teammates when things get bad.

 

After reading this I am going to say you have never played a position in sports where you had to count on others to help you out?

 

This happens many times in sports see Ryan Miller last year in Detroit or Patrick Roy when he was in Montreal. There have also been many times I have watched Rodgers, Manning or even Brees say something to linemen when they are not getting help .

[Tu-Toned]

He threw off his back foot when there is no pressure. QBs can make an oline look worse than they are, see Rob Johnson. Cutler ever. And I'd love to have their receiving core over the Bills right now. They have monsters that you can just throw the ball up too.

 

I just think it's amazing that people try to make Cutler into some type of great QB. He comes across a stuck up d bag who thinks he's better than everyone. He's not a leader and for a guy who went to Vandy, he's not that bright.

Have to agree here, and they can make weak offensive lines look way better than they are, for example Ben Rothlisberger.

Granted he has had some pretty decent lines, but even when he doesn't, he just keeps chugging along and produces.

I would not want Cutler on my team. Not crowning Fitz by any stretch here, but he has played behind some pretty poor lines.

As a matter of fact, I think he was better with pressure coming quickly and that might be part of his problem now. He is

going to have to make the adjustment of having time now. Nice problem to have, he will, and the Bills will be fairly successful

with him at the helm this year. I am pretty confident of this.

[Best Player Available]

I'll take a guy smart enough to take the sack. 7 of them a game if need be. Over a guy with a "quick release", that gave the Jets 21 points in a single game. And most likely will be a top 3 candidate to lead the league in interceptions yet again this year.

 

Sacks-bad. Int's- worse.

 

I really don't know how anyone can defend Fitz anymore. Isn't 1-9 in just the past 10 starts alone mean anything?

[thewildrabbit]

I'll take a guy smart enough to take the sack. 7 of them a game if need be. Over a guy with a "quick release", that gave the Jets 21 points in a single game. And most likely will be a top 3 candidate to lead the league in interceptions yet again this year.

 

Sacks-bad. Int's- worse.

 

I really don't know how anyone can defend Fitz anymore. Isn't 1-9 in just the past 10 starts alone mean anything?

There is a whole lot more to a win / loss then just one player! Take for example the 100 million dollar DE that had just one tackle!

 

Fitz wasn't the only player that looked lost and pathetic at the start of the game on Sunday, and he did play better in the 2nd half against the Jets. Unlike Cutler who looked like crap the entire game!

 

Where was the supposed best D line in the NFL with super Mario, all pro Kyle Williams, #3 overall pick Marcel Darius, FA DE Mark Anderson? However, unlike Fitz the Bills defense didn't play better in the 2nd half, they looked pathetic the entire game. Even the special teams gave up a TD on a punt.

 

The Jets #2 pick WR Stephen Hill caught 2 TD passes while the Bills #3 pick WR TJ Graham was inactive....because Gailey stated he wasn't ready.

 

Yea Fitz sucked! but look whats actually happening on the field, Gailey has a journeyman QB who was a backup his entire career out on the field throwing the ball around like he is Tom Brady. Constant 4-5 WR sets with only one decent WR. Fitz is not an elite QB, he is not Tom Brady and he doesn't have the receiver corps or the line Brady has.

 

Nobody on the Buffalo Bills looked ready to play last week. The entire Bills team looked inept and confused. (save Spiller) Whereas big mouth Rex had his team ready to play.

 

Blame the coaches for that loss, and last years 9 of 10. Why hasn't Gailey / Nix drafted a replacement, they have had 3 years!

[phillyrich]

11/27, TD, 4 INT

 

"We understand that Jay is excited about his new weapons, but it's the same-old Jay. We don't need luck; Jay will throw us the ball." --Charles Woodson, after last night's game

 

Cutler was the 11th overall pick in the 2006 draft. The Bears traded Orton, two first-rounders and a third-round pick to get Cutler.

 

I don't know what my ultimate point is, but I think some members of this board need a reminder from time to time that Fitz isn't the only QB in the league who has shortcomings. Cutler's bio is a lot shinier than Fitz's, but, are the results any different?

 

Only a select few clubs are set at the quarterback position. The rest of them are just trying to get by.

 

Last night wouldn't have bothered me so much if Cutler wouldn't have acted like a big jerk. INT's will be thrown. He was completely out of line with some of his team mates. He may get rung up in the locker room if he keeps up running his mouth and disrespecting the team the way he did.

[Best Player Available]

There is a whole lot more to a win / loss then just one player! Take for example the 100 million dollar DE that had just one tackle!

 

Fitz wasn't the only player that looked lost and pathetic at the start of the game on Sunday, and he did play better in the 2nd half against the Jets. Unlike Cutler who looked like crap the entire game!

 

Where was the supposed best D line in the NFL with super Mario, all pro Kyle Williams, #3 overall pick Marcel Darius, FA DE Mark Anderson? However, unlike Fitz the Bills defense didn't play better in the 2nd half, they looked pathetic the entire game. Even the special teams gave up a TD on a punt.

 

The Jets #2 pick WR Stephen Hill caught 2 TD passes while the Bills #3 pick WR TJ Graham was inactive....because Gailey stated he wasn't ready.

 

Yea Fitz sucked! but look whats actually happening on the field, Gailey has a journeyman QB who was a backup his entire career out on the field throwing the ball around like he is Tom Brady. Constant 4-5 WR sets with only one decent WR. Fitz is not an elite QB, he is not Tom Brady and he doesn't have the receiver corps or the line Brady has.

 

Nobody on the Buffalo Bills looked ready to play last week. The entire Bills team looked inept and confused. (save Spiller) Whereas big mouth Rex had his team ready to play.

 

Blame the coaches for that loss, and last years 9 of 10. Why hasn't Gailey / Nix drafted a replacement, they have had 3 years!

 

Man I cannot argue any of your points because I agree with them. Any criticism for Gailey's/Nix plan well into year 3 is warranted.

 

My point was cutler/fitz as players. For a guy who is so "smart" maybe eating the ball or tossing it into the stands would go a long way in justifying his "smarts". Thats what smart QB's do, especially when they have no accuracy. No offense to Fitz but starting year 8 I don't see him ever being a good player. He never was a even average player. At least he can go work for Wall St. instead of bagging groceries when it's over.

[atlbillsfan1975]

Have I knocked Cutler in any other way than pointing to facts? If nothing else, we've seen some of the same people who blame Fitz for just about everything emerge from slumber to apologize for Cutler in every which way. But, why? Because they really like Cutler, or they really hate Fitzpatrick?

 

I've pointed to Cutler's poor game from last night, and how his career has featured a good number of these. How, even teams with lofty playoff aspirations might have their wagons hitched to a horse that isn't all that it's cracked up to be. In response, I've been informed by assorted people that Cutler is head-and-shoulders above Fitzpatrick, and how his career has been hampered by bad OL play or lack of weapons or Mike Martz, etc. If not for any of these factors, we could plug Cutler into the Patriots offense and it wouldn't skip a beat. I've asked for explanations and data to back these claims, and have barely gotten anything. Except for the guy who is talking about yards per reception.

 

I guess you can come to your own conclusion in regards this thread. Maybe I thought a dose of reality outside of the Buffalo Bills bubble that some people live in would be something to spark conversation. So maybe I've accomplished that.

 

By the way, I'm not sure who or what you're referring to in terms of the post blowing up and "reading comprehension" etc.

Look at his years in Denver with Shanny as his coach and a good o line, good running game and good receivers. Kid was good. And in his 6 full seasons he had five of them with a qb rating of 86% or higher. he does throw too many INT's.

If you had one game to win who would you honestly want at QB? Cutler or Fitz? All things equal.

[Alphadawg7]

LOL that this thread is still going and people are still arguing Fitz is better than Cutler.

 

Cutler > Fitz and that's the bottom line, and I dont even like Cutler. Cutler is a Tier 2 QB and Fitz is a Tier 3 QB

 

Numbers are better, record is better, physical gifts are better, mistakes are lower, can make way more throws, and he has way more upside still than Fitz who has peaked already. How can anyone argue this? I find it hilarious that this is happening again as Deja Vu because this is the same failed argument people tried to make about Trent being better than Cutler.

Edited September 15, 2012 by Alphadawg7

[Maury Ballstein]

LOL that this thread is still going and people are still arguing Fitz is better than Cutler.

 

Cutler > Fitz and that's the bottom line, and I dont even like Cutler. Cutler is a Tier 2 QB and Fitz is a Tier 3 QB

 

Numbers are better, record is better, physical gifts are better, mistakes are lower, can make way more throws, and he has way more upside still than Fitz who has peaked already. How can anyone argue this? I find it hilarious that this is happening again as Deja Vu because this is the same failed argument people tried to make about Trent being better than Cutler.

 

So whose in tier 4 ? That must be one ugly place. Tannenhill....weeden....thiggy....VY.....??

[CardinalScotts]

As sad as his performance was, he is still better than Fitz by a mile.

 

His O line wasn't doing him any favors last night.. my god that was awful.

funny how we'll make excuses for guys we like -- since he joined the bears if you like Cutler "he has no running game"...."has no wide outs"...."o-line stinks"...."no tight end"....."windy stadium"....."too many offensive coordinators"......"Lovie keeps the shackles on"......- his 83.9 QB rating is about right.

[Orton's Arm]

Last night wouldn't have bothered me so much if Cutler wouldn't have acted like a big jerk. INT's will be thrown. He was completely out of line with some of his team mates. He may get rung up in the locker room if he keeps up running his mouth and disrespecting the team the way he did.

I hear you, and I don't disagree. On the other hand, if a WR quits on a route (thereby causing an INT), the QB is right to be livid. If the OL cant'/doesn't block anyone, thereby getting the QB killed, the QB whose brain is being damaged by all those hits has a right to feel a certain amount of anger toward his offensive linemen.

 

You could come back with, "It's on Cutler to lead and inspire his teammates. If Cutler's offensive linemen and WRs don't look like they want to win, then that reflects on Cutler's leadership." There's some truth to that. But it's also the coach's job to motivate the team. More importantly, it's the players' job to play passionate football each and every week. If the Bears' current offensive supporting cast can't or won't do that, it's the GM's job to replace them with others who will.

 

Cutler is a good quarterback, and the numbers reflect the fact that he's half a step below the Manning/Brady level. But if he's close to those two as a passer and as a quarterback, he's not necessarily close as a leader. Cutler seems to have the core trait needed to be a good leader: a passion for winning games. (At least he looked passionate to me.) Now he just needs to temper that passion with a little more emotional awareness.

Edited September 15, 2012 by Edwards' Arm

[thewildrabbit]

Man I cannot argue any of your points because I agree with them. Any criticism for Gailey's/Nix plan well into year 3 is warranted.

 

My point was cutler/fitz as players. For a guy who is so "smart" maybe eating the ball or tossing it into the stands would go a long way in justifying his "smarts". Thats what smart QB's do, especially when they have no accuracy. No offense to Fitz but starting year 8 I don't see him ever being a good player. He never was a even average player. At least he can go work for Wall St. instead of bagging groceries when it's over.

I couldn't agree more with the idea of Cutler throwing the ball away rather then taking a sack. He must have been very frustrated in trying to get the ball down field in 2-3 seconds with nobody open! Meanwhile trying to pull an Aaron Rodgers holding onto the ball until someone gets open. No excuses tho, he should have thrown it away!

 

In regards to Fitz, his story is also very frustrating to me as a fan because I still see some potential. Because unlike Cutler, Fitz usually can get the ball to the open receiver in the 2-3 seconds. The problem I see is Gailey is too darn pass happy with a non elite QB. Fitz should be handing off and managing the game instead of being forced to try to single handedly win it. Not to mention Fitz's surround cast is still not even close to Tom Brady 3-4 elite receivers. Drew Brees 3 elite receivers et al.

 

Plus,Gailey doesn't build a strong running game forcing the opposing defense to crowd the line and then throw over them like the old Buffalo Bills did with Kelly. To Gailey the running game is an afterthought and only uses it to occasionally mix things up. The last half of the season last year the Bills RB would be tearing it up and Gailey would stop running it to constantly pass.

 

Chan Gailey has this singular mindset to make his QB work the ball down field despite what the opposing defense is doing. He just doesn't have a backup plan or refuses to make adjustments to what the defense is doing. Some fans here nicknamed him megamind, they need to add a "less" to that nickname.

[starrymessenger]

I would throw Granny off a speeding roller coaster for Jay Cutler.

[benderbender]

Why does Cutler always look either drunk or sick?

[Greybeard]

Wow, you really love Cutler, don't you!? To say that the only thing keeping Cutler from immortality is a quality O-Line is a bit far fetched. Cutler has the same mentality that gets weaker armed QBs (like Fitz) in trouble. He's a gambler, and because his arm is so strong he thinks he can make every throw, regardless of coverage and circumstances. Thus the bloated INT numbers. Yes, yes, the line play in Chicago is troublesome, but that doesn't account for all the blemishes.

 

You ever watch Jim Kelly?

[JESSEFEFFER]

Football Outsiders 2010

 

 

R.Fitzpatrick BUF 223 23 139 24 -3.6% 27 -6.4% 48.3 21 466 2,851 2,676 23 3 3 15 58.1% 2/25

D.Stanton DET 174 24 84 28 12.2% 12 0.0% 42.4 28 123 722 840 4 1 1 3 59.5% 0/0

S.Wallace CLE 151 25 114 25 11.3% 14 5.8% 38.4 34 107 661 749 4 0 0 2 63.4% 1/14

K.Collins TEN 150 26 218 23 -3.2% 26 0.4% 58.7 14 290 1,706 1,720 14 1 3 8 58.2% 3/60

C.McCoy CLE 146 27 84 27 -1.9% 25 -5.8% 45.1 25 245 1,465 1,461 6 1 0 9 61.3% 1/38

D.McNabb WAS 133 28 58 30 -6.9% 29 -9.3% 38.9 33 509 3,078 2,690 14 8 0 13 58.5% 3/48

M.Stafford DET 91 29 80 29 3.0% 21 1.2% 58.1 15 100 504 646 6 0 1 1 59.4% 1/27

J.Cutler CHI 81 30 54 31 -8.5% 30 -9.3% 48.5 19 484 2,930 2,552 23 4 5 16 60.4% 7/140

 

Football Outsiders 2011

 

J.Campbell OAK 340 17 326 17 19.8% 6 18.5% 54.3 19 169 1,151 1,348 6 1 0 3 61.0% 3/40

C.Palmer OAK 296 18 298 18 2.5% 15 2.7% 62.6 12 344 2,627 2,145 13 1 1 16 61.2% 3/36

R.Fitzpatrick BUF 189 19 194 20 -6.2% 26 -6.1% 50.5 21 591 3,702 3,383 24 4 1 23 62.5% 11/236

T.Jackson SEA 161 20 61 25 -6.0% 25 -9.2% 37.7 33 495 2,790 2,719 14 3 4 9 60.8% 5/135

J.Cutler CHI 157 21 207 19 -3.5% 21 -1.0% 59.7 14 339 2,140 1,867 13 4 2 7 58.1% 3/35

M.Moore MIA 135 22 124 22 -5.7% 24 -6.1% 56.7 17 388 2,266 2,185 16 6 6 9 60.6% 6/110

D.Orlovsky IND 121 23 36 26 -2.2% 19 -8.5% 49.9 22 204 1,118 1,258 6 4 3 4 64.2% 2/21

K.Orton 2TM 97 24 170 21 -5.4% 23 -1.1% 49.8 23 262 1,686 1,483 9 0 2 9 60.4% 3/32