This team is built to run the ball

[bbb]

Isn't that a little misleading. Like when they'd say games that Thurman or Tony Dorsett ran for over 100, the team is 48-4 or stuff like that. Well, yeah - because you run more to run out the clock when you have the lead and other factors. It's not Hey, let's just keep giving the ball to Dorsett until he goes over 100 and then we'll win.

[zow2]

This feels like a 4 player offense thus far...Spiller, Fitz, Stevie and Chandler. Not sure how they can sustain that. Gonna need some other guys to step up. I like the running offense and agree that it limits the chances for Fitz mistakes. Just hope we get Fred back soon because I'm not sure how many hits CJ can handle on a weekly basis.

[Kelly the Dog]

I'm a little late to the party in this thread, just getting back from Bufftown and a great weekend at the game. Here are my thoughts on the OP...

 

1] Fans, and especially posters, should just look back on what Gailey has done in his career, and should go to buffalobills.com more and just listen to what he says. He's not a bullshitter, and you can know a lot about our offense by just listening to him. He doesn't mislead people very much.

 

2] Teams and philosophies are not built around one player or factor (usually), but on a large combination of factors. When Trentative and Fitz became his starting QBs, and the OL was terrible and never played together, and we lacked a lot of speed at WR (along with Roscoe always hurt), he designed the offense on his QB making quick reads and quick passes because the OL couldn't hold more than 2-3 seconds, and the WRs couldn't get deep much anyway. It was both taking advantage of things Fitz did well and masking glaring deficiencies. This also allowed the running game to have some room because the D was always playing nickel and often dime.

 

3] The OL started to get a little better with experience together in the system and with each other, Chandler and Nelson emerged as viable targets over the middle. The running game worked as planned, and Fred Ex became a star in the first 5 games of last year. Fitz and the O was very efficient. Meanwhile, the defense early last year was decent when Kyle and Merriman were still there, they were taking the ball away and keeping the team in the game. People thought he was pass happy but he was still relying on 5-6 different factors that led to his offensive philosophy.

 

4] Then the injuries came in droves on both sides of the ball. We withstood the first two OL injuries but the third started a collapse. When Jones went out and Nelson was asked to play outside suddenly the middle was no longer open as much. At the same time, Kyke and Merriman were out and the defense totally collapsed. That was probably the single greatest contributor to the offense being pass happier. Chan knew we couldn't stop anyone. We had to pass a lot to score points, we couldn't be a power run team at all. We had rotating LTs and Cs and guards. We had no one to stretch the field. He did what he could but there was really no chance of winning many games.

 

5] This year a few things happened to evolve his offensive philosophy. First and foremost is the defense. He now knows we can stop teams. That completely changes his attitude. The second biggest difference is Cordy Glenn. Instead of a finesse player at LT he now has a mauler. With the other guys back from injury, he has a monster OL. Those two things alone, which never existed before while he was a coach, allows him to think more run. He doesnt have and never had a set philosophy of being pass happy or run happy and he constantly says it and shows it. And it also shows from game to game, and series to series on how the D lines up to stop us.

 

6] So back to the OP, this is the first time since Chan has been here that this team is set up to be a running team. However, we're very likely to be both, and when teams stack up to stop Spiller, and/or Fred when he gets back, we will pass more. Spiller's longest play, the 38 or so yard run was on a play when the Chiefs had six DBs in. You know, expecting the pass. The 17 yard TD was a 2nd and 10 draw play on a passing down.

 

We are not going to be a complete power running team. This is the first time we were built to run, but the OL, when healthy is starting to learn how to pass block, too. They are finally a unit, and Glenn has been huge. Chan still wants to play two RBs together, especially now that Nelson is out, which is likely why he chose Johnny White over a WR to replace Nelson. We may soon see Choice and Spiller together although Choice is not nearly the receiver that Fred is so it won't work as well.

 

Ultimately though, Chan plays to strengths and masks weaknesses, and always has. The only time he had a TE before, Tony Gonzalez, he used a TE a lot. He now has Chandler improving and uses Chandler a lot. He is neither pass happy nor a running coach, even when he says he "prefers" to be a running coach (he is not going to run if he thinks he doesn't have the horses to do it). He sees what he has, on both sides of the ball, and then makes his decisions.

Edited September 19, 2012 by Kelly the Dog

[TakeYouToTasker]

This feels like a 4 player offense thus far...Spiller, Fitz, Stevie and Chandler. Not sure how they can sustain that. Gonna need some other guys to step up. I like the running offense and agree that it limits the chances for Fitz mistakes. Just hope we get Fred back soon because I'm not sure how many hits CJ can handle on a weekly basis.

Well, those three, plus the o-line is nine... so really, I'm OK with that.

[bbb]

LOL - 9 out of 11 ain't bad. I think Meatloaf had a song about that.

[Turbosrrgood]

The problem with this is that you can't win in the NFL these days by running the ball. That's been the case for a few years. The entire league is built around the passing game - it's the only way you can consistently put up 25+ points. If the Bills went run heavy, it wouldn't help them win. They have to solve their passing game problems if they expect to have any chance to win.

 

49'rs kind of fly in the face of this post. Last year they were a pure power running team. They rarely threw the ball, and even more rarely down field. They relied on defense and a good running game. They also happened to be one of the best teams in football last year. Yes this is more than a decade old now, but there is also the old 2000 Ravens argument. They won with the amazing Trent Dilfer...

[mrags]

Ok. A few things. To those that say CJ can't handle the load of 20+ carries a game crowd. I have included a link below to show statistics that prove points on both sides of the argument. I'll add a few things here:

In his senior year he averaged 15+ carries a game rushing the ball and another 2+ in receptions. Bringing his total to 17+. It is lower than the 20+ that people expect here. So to that you are right and have factual proof that CJ can't carry the ball more and never has in his career. However he also Had 31 KR and PRs that year as well bringing the average to over 21+. That is defenately in the same realm as far as touches is concerned. Yes he would still recieve the ball out of the backfield but at the same time he wouldn't be performing return duties which can take a large toll on anyone. Just ask Terrance McGee or Devin Hester or Roscoe Parrish.

 

The other side of this argument is that he regularly increased his carries every year in college (except his sophmore year, not sure what happened there) so there is no evidence he CANT handle more. He also has increased his average of carries as a Buffalo Bill and again, there is no proof that he can't handle even more.

 

For over a year we kept hearing that he was not the best at pass blocking and that's what was holding him back as far as on the field looks he was getting. Since the beginning of this year, Chan has come out and stated his blocking has gotten much better and he is no longer a liability.

 

CJ is bigger than Chris Johnson who was the Titans offense over the last few years and he doesn't have anyone claiming he is too small to carry the load up to 20-25+ carries a game.

 

CJ seems to get better with every carry. Everyone knows that everytime CJ touches the ball there is a chance that he takes it to the house no matter where they are on the field. Over the course of the game the defense gets beat down and worn out from chasing and tackling, not to mention getting beat up by our maulers up front.

 

He has shown no signs in 2+ years that he can't handle more carries or that he is injury prone or gets nicked up on a regular basis.

 

I'm not saying that CJ CAN handle more carries. The fact is none of us know that because he's never done it or been allowed to do it. BUT... There is also no factual evidence proving that he can't do it either. The only argument the "CJ can't handle 20+ carries a game" "CJ is too small to be a feature back" crowd has is that he's never done it but never had a chance to prove it.

 

I say, let CJ prove it first. If he shows signs of slowing down, or injuries, or soreness, then let one of the other backs take over for a bit. Freddy should be back soon and he is actually perfect for that change of pace back to spell CJ. He's bigger, stronger, has great vision, a phenominal blocker, great out of the backfield recievibg and has shown he can be really good to great.

 

To those that claim Chan is NOT pass happy. Your wrong. It was proven in games last year when CJ would have 80+ yards going into halftime only to get a few carries in the 2nd half. All this while being in a close game that showed no reason to abandon the run. Or maybe Chan plays to his teams strenghts. I might give you that, but then again I go back to last year when CJ would have a killer first half, the game would be within 7-10 points and yet we would still pass much more in the 2nd half. Thisbwas also evidence thisboast Sunday against the Chiefs. There was a switch in gameplan later in the game until it was all but a win and Thigpen and White/Choice were in the game.

 

To those people that claim it's a passing league now and you must pass to win. You are wrong. There's an unlimited amount of ways to win in the league. Passing, rushing, short dumpsoffs that are basically runs (early Patriots SB teams), killer defenses that could either stop the run or the pass or both. At some point I'll look everything up showing defensive rankings vs passing rankings vs rushing rankings but not right now. I haven't done the lookup yet so I might be wrong but that still doesn't mean you must be a pass happy team to win it all.

 

At the end of the day, the biggest reason why we NEED to become more of a rushing team is this: we don't have the horses to pass effectively. Fitz is an average QB most of the time and only a tip QB a few times a year. The team has 2 really good runners right now and the beef up front. We play in a cold, windy stadium, outdoors and that effects the passing game later in the year. The northeast teams that play in these conditions generally have stronger running games or the OL to accomidate this. Pitt, Chicago, Philly, Baltimore, Seattle, San Fran, Oakland.

 

It's also no suprise that our best players right mow are our RBs. Good teams and coaches use thier best players tobthier strengths and do it until someone shows a way to stop it. Nobody has proven tondo that with CJ this year or Freddy last year and CJ much of last year.

 

Running the ball is the way to go. Eliminate Fitz' mistakes and punish other teams.

 

Hope oases some sense.

 

http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/cj-spiller-1/gamelog/

[zow2]

Ok. A few things. To those that say CJ can't handle the load of 20+ carries a game crowd. I have included a link below to show statistics that prove points on both sides of the argument. I'll add a few things here:

In his senior year he averaged 15+ carries a game rushing the ball and another 2+ in receptions. Bringing his total to 17+. It is lower than the 20+ that people expect here. So to that you are right and have factual proof that CJ can't carry the ball more and never has in his career. However he also Had 31 KR and PRs that year as well bringing the average to over 21+. That is defenately in the same realm as far as touches is concerned. Yes he would still recieve the ball out of the backfield but at the same time he wouldn't be performing return duties which can take a large toll on anyone. Just ask Terrance McGee or Devin Hester or Roscoe Parrish.

 

The other side of this argument is that he regularly increased his carries every year in college (except his sophmore year, not sure what happened there) so there is no evidence he CANT handle more. He also has increased his average of carries as a Buffalo Bill and again, there is no proof that he can't handle even more.

 

For over a year we kept hearing that he was not the best at pass blocking and that's what was holding him back as far as on the field looks he was getting. Since the beginning of this year, Chan has come out and stated his blocking has gotten much better and he is no longer a liability.

 

CJ is bigger than Chris Johnson who was the Titans offense over the last few years and he doesn't have anyone claiming he is too small to carry the load up to 20-25+ carries a game.

 

CJ seems to get better with every carry. Everyone knows that everytime CJ touches the ball there is a chance that he takes it to the house no matter where they are on the field. Over the course of the game the defense gets beat down and worn out from chasing and tackling, not to mention getting beat up by our maulers up front.

 

He has shown no signs in 2+ years that he can't handle more carries or that he is injury prone or gets nicked up on a regular basis.

 

I'm not saying that CJ CAN handle more carries. The fact is none of us know that because he's never done it or been allowed to do it. BUT... There is also no factual evidence proving that he can't do it either. The only argument the "CJ can't handle 20+ carries a game" "CJ is too small to be a feature back" crowd has is that he's never done it but never had a chance to prove it.

 

I say, let CJ prove it first. If he shows signs of slowing down, or injuries, or soreness, then let one of the other backs take over for a bit. Freddy should be back soon and he is actually perfect for that change of pace back to spell CJ. He's bigger, stronger, has great vision, a phenominal blocker, great out of the backfield recievibg and has shown he can be really good to great.

 

To those that claim Chan is NOT pass happy. Your wrong. It was proven in games last year when CJ would have 80+ yards going into halftime only to get a few carries in the 2nd half. All this while being in a close game that showed no reason to abandon the run. Or maybe Chan plays to his teams strenghts. I might give you that, but then again I go back to last year when CJ would have a killer first half, the game would be within 7-10 points and yet we would still pass much more in the 2nd half. Thisbwas also evidence thisboast Sunday against the Chiefs. There was a switch in gameplan later in the game until it was all but a win and Thigpen and White/Choice were in the game.

 

To those people that claim it's a passing league now and you must pass to win. You are wrong. There's an unlimited amount of ways to win in the league. Passing, rushing, short dumpsoffs that are basically runs (early Patriots SB teams), killer defenses that could either stop the run or the pass or both. At some point I'll look everything up showing defensive rankings vs passing rankings vs rushing rankings but not right now. I haven't done the lookup yet so I might be wrong but that still doesn't mean you must be a pass happy team to win it all.

 

At the end of the day, the biggest reason why we NEED to become more of a rushing team is this: we don't have the horses to pass effectively. Fitz is an average QB most of the time and only a tip QB a few times a year. The team has 2 really good runners right now and the beef up front. We play in a cold, windy stadium, outdoors and that effects the passing game later in the year. The northeast teams that play in these conditions generally have stronger running games or the OL to accomidate this. Pitt, Chicago, Philly, Baltimore, Seattle, San Fran, Oakland.

 

It's also no suprise that our best players right mow are our RBs. Good teams and coaches use thier best players tobthier strengths and do it until someone shows a way to stop it. Nobody has proven tondo that with CJ this year or Freddy last year and CJ much of last year.

 

Running the ball is the way to go. Eliminate Fitz' mistakes and punish other teams.

 

Hope oases some sense.

 

 

 

i think your post qualifies as an e-book

[bbb]

I read it on my kindle.

[Kelly the Dog]

i think your post qualifies as an e-book

I was thinking filibuster.

[NoSaint]

 

 

49'rs kind of fly in the face of this post. Last year they were a pure power running team. They rarely threw the ball, and even more rarely down field. They relied on defense and a good running game. They also happened to be one of the best teams in football last year. Yes this is more than a decade old now, but there is also the old 2000 Ravens argument. They won with the amazing Trent Dilfer...

 

Even the 9ers passed 51% of the time and used the pass heavily in their playoff win. Not saying its their identity but to say they rarely passed is not a true statement.

 

They also went out and stockpiled receivers to go with the top ten selections at qb, wr and TE (smith Crabtree and Davis) who have been a mixed bag but illustrate the passing game being a priority for them.

Edited September 19, 2012 by NoSaint

[EastRochBillsfan]

We only have one good running back at the moment, and he's not the sort that can take a pounding running inside for 25 carries a game. I like what we are doing with spread formations and short routes in lieu of running the ball on some plays.

This team is not built for the power run game, which you need to be a run first team. Spiller can't take too many carries. Jackson is out. Who are we left with? Choice?

 

The Bills run extremely efficiently--tops in the league two years running at yards per carry.

 

I think our current strategy is just fine. Fitz just needs to execute, as well as the D.

 

i was going to comment on this but mrags beat me to it. Mine will be much shorter. Who says spiller can't handle it??..I don't believe it for a minute. I think it is wise to keep him fresh so he always has that burst to bring it home, but by no means do i feel he is not capable of running the ball another 5-10 times a game. I say hogwash to that.

[Dorkington]

I say, let CJ prove it first. If he shows signs of slowing down, or injuries, or soreness, then let one of the other backs take over for a bit. Freddy should be back soon and he is actually perfect for that change of pace back to spell CJ. He's bigger, stronger, has great vision, a phenominal blocker, great out of the backfield recievibg and has shown he can be really good to great.

 

I don't know how closely you watched last weeks game, but you could clearly see he was beat up near the end of the first half. The second half, Chan used him significantly less.

 

i was going to comment on this but mrags beat me to it. Mine will be much shorter. Who says spiller can't handle it??..I don't believe it for a minute. I think it is wise to keep him fresh so he always has that burst to bring it home, but by no means do i feel he is not capable of running the ball another 5-10 times a game. I say hogwash to that.

 

IMO, there's a significant difference between the power running, game control sort of offense, and the way the Bills run the ball. CJ was clearly hurting late in the first half of the game against KC, and that was an epic half of CJ action. I think he should run the ball 15-20 times, and catch the ball in space. I don't think he'll work well for pounding the ball inside the tackles, and fashioning our entire offense around that. We work significantly better in terms of running, when we use our various spread formations to keep holes in the defense.

[Kelly the Dog]

I don't know how closely you watched last weeks game, but you could clearly see he was beat up near the end of the first half. The second half, Chan used him significantly less.

 

 

 

IMO, there's a significant difference between the power running, game control sort of offense, and the way the Bills run the ball. CJ was clearly hurting late in the first half of the game against KC, and that was an epic half of CJ action. I think he should run the ball 15-20 times, and catch the ball in space. I don't think he'll work well for pounding the ball inside the tackles, and fashioning our entire offense around that. We work significantly better in terms of running, when we use our various spread formations to keep holes in the defense.

i agree that he was beat up a bit but i think the entire reason he was not used was the score. If we werent up 35-3 or 35-10 he would have been back in the game more.

[Dorkington]

i agree that he was beat up a bit but i think the entire reason he was not used was the score. If we werent up 35-3 or 35-10 he would have been back in the game more.

 

I noticed it early in the third, when it was 21-0... but yes, if it were closer, I'm sure he would have been in there more. And at that point, I wonder how things would have gone. I think the inside runs (when getting tackled by multiple 300lb men) hurt him a bit more than the plays in space. I guess time will tell, since FJ is out a few more weeks.

[Kelly the Dog]

I noticed it early in the third, when it was 21-0... but yes, if it were closer, I'm sure he would have been in there more. And at that point, I wonder how things would have gone. I think the inside runs (when getting tackled by multiple 300lb men) hurt him a bit more than the plays in space. I guess time will tell, since FJ is out a few more weeks.

Right. Early in the third they put Choice in for a series. I think that was somewhat of a designed idea, as they did the same thing last year several times in the last six games when CJ was the feature back. It's impossible for us to know, and you may be right. I think 15 carries is about what CJ should get, considering he will get about 5 pass attempts, too.

 

It's always been a pet peeve of mine when fans talk about RBs should have 30 carries a game, or 25 carries a game. It's almost non-existent. 25 carries a game over 16 games is 400 carries. Last year only two players had over 300 carries, and one of them was at 301. 20 carries a game is 320. So there was only one player in the entire league that had 20 carries a game, and that was MJD. Yes, injuries factor into it, but the fact remains that fans always talk about 25-30 carries a game and hardly anyone does it.

[NoSaint]

 

Right. Early in the third they put Choice in for a series. I think that was somewhat of a designed idea, as they did the same thing last year several times in the last six games when CJ was the feature back. It's impossible for us to know, and you may be right. I think 15 carries is about what CJ should get, considering he will get about 5 pass attempts, too.

 

It's always been a pet peeve of mine when fans talk about RBs should have 30 carries a game, or 25 carries a game. It's almost non-existent. 25 carries a game over 16 games is 400 carries. Last year only two players had over 300 carries, and one of them was at 301. 20 carries a game is 320. So there was only one player in the entire league that had 20 carries a game, and that was MJD. Yes, injuries factor into it, but the fact remains that fans always talk about 25-30 carries a game and hardly anyone does it.

 

and has ANY back been able to bounce back after a 400 carry season. the following year is almost always utter trash. 15 carries planned, and 5 miscellaneous touches (carry, catch, whatever) is really the most you can ask for.

[Kelly the Dog]

and has ANY back been able to bounce back after a 400 carry season. the following year is almost always utter trash. 15 carries planned, and 5 miscellaneous touches (carry, catch, whatever) is really the most you can ask for.

There have only been approximately 5 times in the history of the NFL that any player has had 400+ carries. I just looked up the year by year top number and it was five total, and the numbers were 416, 403, 410, 404 and 407. So there could not have been a lot of others. And, for example, in the largest one, 416 by Larry Johnson, #2 was LT at 348. And in your reference, the season after LJ had 416 carries, he had 158 carries for 559 yards and got hurt (at slightly less than 20 carries per game although it may have been slightly over 20 per game depending on when in the 8th game he got hurt)

[NoSaint]

 

There have only been approximately 5 times in the history of the NFL that any player has had 400+ carries. I just looked up the year by year top number and it was five total, and the numbers were 416, 403, 410, 404 and 407. So there could not have been a lot of others. And, for example, in the largest one, 416 by Larry Johnson, #2 was LT at 348. And in your reference, the season after LJ had 416 carries, he had 158 carries for 559 yards and got hurt (at slightly less than 20 carries per game although it may have been slightly over 20 per game depending on when in the 8th game he got hurt)

 

even that ballpark though. ive posted it a few times before and dont recall the exact details - the two biggest flags for a back falling off a cliff was about 400 touches (give or take, its been awhile) or a sudden and sharp increase in touches (i think it was a spike over 50% or something along those lines, putting a guy up to the 300+ level).

 

the article was talking about FF value primarily but referenced a pretty good stretch.

 

it was amazing how sharp a drop every backs career took when they did that. some had minor rebounds 2 years removed but pretty much 100% that got near that 400 touch mark (the article may have used 390, or 375, or something in there) never really contributed again. i think dickerson was just about the only freak of nature

 

 

edit: This isnt the same article, but it talks about the same issue. Im going to have to dig some.

http://www.footballdocs.com/running_back_carries.html

Edited September 19, 2012 by NoSaint

[billsfan_34]

The NFL is a passing league because it is a copy cat league, not because you can't win by running and controlling the clock. The Bills are much better suited to run to pass rather than passing to run. We have two franchise runners, a mobile QB who play actions well, physical wideouts who block, a TE who sits down in space well, and a mauling offensive line.

Concur!!!