Analysis of Opening Day NFL Starting QBs

[dubs]

I am not sure if this has been done before, apologies if this is redundant, but Sunday was really the last piece of evidence I needed to convince me that as much as I like Fitz, he's just not a quality starting QB in this league. My OCD nature got me to looking up all the starting QBs in the league on opening day and how they got into the league. I think there are a few telling statistics, that while not surprising and can sometimes be misleading, lead me to believe that in one way or another we must address QB early in next year's draft.

 

Of the 32 starting QBs in the league, 23 (72%) were drafted in Round 1 and 2 in Round 2 (78% if you combine Rd 1 & 2). Tony Romo is the only undrafted guy and the lowest drafted guy is…wait, Ryan Fitzpatrick at pick 250.

 

Of the 32 starting QBs in the league, we wouldn’t have been able to draft 16 of them because they were off the board when our pick came up (unless tried to trade up).

 

Of the QBs that were drafted in Round 1 or 2 that we didn’t draft, instead we took:

Nate Clements in 2001, Drew Brees was first pick of Rd 2

Donte Whitner in 2006, Jay Cutler drafted later in Rd 1.

Leodis McKelvin in 2008, Joe Flacco drafted later in Rd 1

Aaron Maybin in 2009, Josh Freeman drafted later in Rd 1

Aaron Williams in 2011, Andy Dalton drafted 1 pick later in Rd. 2

Marcel Dareus in 2011, Gabbert, Locker, Ponder all drafted later in Rd 1

Stephon Gilmore in 2012, Weeden drafted later in Rd 1

 

In the if you trade up for a QB, you better be sure he’s the real deal department (aka the try not to throw up in your mouth department):

In 2004 we traded up to pick JP Losman. We gave Dallas our next year number 1. The following year, in 2005, our pick was the 20^th pick. Aaron Rogers was the 24^th pick in that draft. OUCH.

 

There are also a lot of misses in by teams selecting QBs in the first few rounds. And there are some exceptions to teams getting lucky drafting a guy late (Brady) or picking up a UFA (Romo), but I think the point is that if we want to get an above average QB on this team, we either need to be terrible for a year and get a high pick, do everything we can to create a package to trade up (a la Redskins), or "reach" for a guy who according to the experts might not have a Top -15 grade.

 

** Disclaimer - I understand that: 1) Hindsight is 20/20. 2) Extraneous reasons (coaches, players around him, etc...) could prevent a QB that was successful somewhere else, not be as successful in Buffalo

 

*** I tried to attach the spreadsheet but it looked like a jumbled mess...

Edited September 10, 2012 by dubs

[dubs]

Also, since 1998 (when Peyton manning - oldest QB on this list was drafted) 38 QBs have been drafted in the first round and our only pick was JP Losman. Not that telling. About a QB per team, except when you factor in the fact that some of those teams never needed to draft another one.

[Captain Hindsight]

Ive never wanted someone to succeed so badly as i want Fitz to. After watching Trent check down for 3 years and JP skip balls for three years, watching Fitz throw it around, trust his recievers, dive for first downs and make games exciting was a breath of fresh air. I thought we finally had found that guy who took a while to bloom but was now our guy. For once we got the better end of a guy bouncing around the league.

 

Last season when were went 5-2 to start, Fitz was looking like a sure pro bowler and we looked like a playoff team. The final games, i dont know what happened and yesterday was just more of the same. I want Fitz to be great, I want him to do well, I want to call him our gamer QB. As good as this defense should and can be, even they cant account for 4 TOs from our offense. Our season rides on Fitz. I hope he can turn it around. This is talented team on paper, but without consistent QB play, we cant play with the big boys yet

[FitzShowUsYourTitz]

"** Disclaimer - I understand that: 1) Hindsight is 20/20"

 

Do you really??

Edited September 11, 2012 by Cville Bills

[Trader]

Ive never wanted someone to succeed so badly as i want Fitz to. After watching Trent check down for 3 years and JP skip balls for three years, watching Fitz throw it around, trust his recievers, dive for first downs and make games exciting was a breath of fresh air. I thought we finally had found that guy who took a while to bloom but was now our guy. For once we got the better end of a guy bouncing around the league.

 

Last season when were went 5-2 to start, Fitz was looking like a sure pro bowler and we looked like a playoff team. The final games, i dont know what happened and yesterday was just more of the same. I want Fitz to be great, I want him to do well, I want to call him our gamer QB. As good as this defense should and can be, even they cant account for 4 TOs from our offense. Our season rides on Fitz. I hope he can turn it around. This is talented team on paper, but without consistent QB play, we cant play with the big boys yet

 

I think we all want Fitz to succeed but it looks like there is something wrong with him. Something happened to him at mid season last year and other that the one good game he played he has been awful. I am thinking he has some kind of a mental issue or a lingering problem from a concussion. The guy looks like a zombie out there. They need to shorten the playbook for sure.

[dubs]

"** Disclaimer - I understand that: 1) Hindsight is 20/20"

 

Do you really??

 

Yes, which is why I put that. I'm not suggesting that the Bills FO should know for an absolute certainty who's going to be a good QB and who's going to be a bust. I guess my point is generally when a QB is drafted in Round 1, it's because he has all the tools to be a very good QB. Size, Arm Strength, Accuracy, Pehaps Athleticism. What is clear to me with Fitz is he just doesn't have the arm strength to be a good NFL QB. He overcompensates by trying to throw harder and I think it results in inaccuracy. I think the organization needs to try draft a guy with those tools before we make another draft pick.

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

Ive never wanted someone to succeed so badly as i want Fitz to. After watching Trent check down for 3 years and JP skip balls for three years, watching Fitz throw it around, trust his recievers, dive for first downs and make games exciting was a breath of fresh air. I thought we finally had found that guy who took a while to bloom but was now our guy. For once we got the better end of a guy bouncing around the league.

 

Last season when were went 5-2 to start, Fitz was looking like a sure pro bowler and we looked like a playoff team. The final games, i dont know what happened and yesterday was just more of the same. I want Fitz to be great, I want him to do well, I want to call him our gamer QB. As good as this defense should and can be, even they cant account for 4 TOs from our offense. Our season rides on Fitz. I hope he can turn it around. This is talented team on paper, but without consistent QB play, we cant play with the big boys yet

 

We can look for reason after reason. At the end of the day, it's regression to the mean. Fitz is an NFL veteran who was a subpar/borderline starter before he got to Buffalo, and that he remains. Each one of his seasons bears this out both statistically and on a more abstract level of general efficacy.

 

And hey, he shouldn't apologize for that. The fault lies in the Bills who decided the absolute pinnacle of his effectiveness was a good time to negotiate. These weren't the same exact guys who extended Dick Jauron after 6 games, but "he who doesn't learn history is doomed to repeat it."

[kasper13]

The Bills very rarely even draft a QB and when they do, they miss badly. Hard to believe they went 9 years without drafting even one QB! Amazing that these are the only QB's they have drafted in 26 years! Should have been taking one per year since 2000 until they hit on one.

 

2010- (7th/209) Levi Brown

2007-(3rd/92) Trent Edwards

2004-(1st/22) JP Losman

1995-(2nd/45) Todd Collins

1992-(12th/335) Matt Rodgers

1986-(12th/313) Brian McClure

Edited September 11, 2012 by kasper13

[BillsVet]

10 NFL teams started first or second year QB's during Week 1. There hasn't been a time in NFL history when more teams went with younger options than this year. And yet, there's Buffalo riding the same guy they have since early in 2010 who may know the system, but lacks the accuracy to be more than a journeyman. I won't count 2009 because Nix/Gailey weren't around yet.

 

Taking a QB is a risk that Nix never wanted to take. It'll be his and Gailey's legacy that they never corrected the position team's prioritize first when rebuilding.

[dbow]

Some where Nix is holding a baby looking for the intangibles that may make him worth drafting in 20 years or so.

[dubs]

Per Tuesday Morning Quarterback (my favorite Sports Writer/Economist on the Planet):

 

http://espn.go.com/espn/playbook/story/_/id/8363360/is-green-bay-sync-san-francisco-next-nfl-powerhouse

 

 

Yet Another Awful Bills Team: The Bills have a league-worst 11-year postseason drought, and that is unlikely to change anytime soon as they allowed 48 points versus the weak offense of the Jets. Despite the NFL being a passing league, the Bills have no quarterback they drafted on their roster, just an assortment of quarterbacks other teams didn't want. At the halfway point of the 2011 season, starter Ryan Fitzpatrick had 14 touchdown passes versus seven interceptions. The Bills awarded him a contract extension with a monster bonus, and since then he has celebrated by throwing 19 interceptions and 13 touchdown passes. By the last third of last year, defensive coordinators had figured out that Fitzpatrick never looks over the center of the field -- all his passes go sideways or up the sideline. Since opponents figured this out, he's been throwing picks. His sideways pick-six to Antonio Cromartie on Sunday at Jersey/B was so predictable, Cromartie appeared to be the one running the pattern. After the game, Cromartie said the Jets were expecting Fitzpatrick to throw sideways.

 

 

Buffalo's awful secondary does not help. The Bills allowed a 123.4-rating day by Mark Sanchez, one of the worst passers in the league. At cornerback, Buffalo has Leodis McKelvin, 11th choice of the 2008 draft; Stephon Gilmore, 10th selection of the 2012 draft; and Eric Williams, 33rd choice of the 2011 draft. All helped Sanchez look like a Hall of Fame quarterback in his prime. McKelvin and Gilmore were burned badly for touchdowns.

 

 

Winning in your division is the NFL's test of manhood. Buffalo is now on an 0-6 streak against the Jets, a 2-6 streak against the Dolphins and a 2-21 streak against the Patriots. For a decade the Bills have been the league's worst-managed, worst-coached and worst-drafting franchise. There's no sign of any change -- and no sign anyone at the top of the Bills' organization cares.

[NoSaint]

Ive never wanted someone to succeed so badly as i want Fitz to. After watching Trent check down for 3 years and JP skip balls for three years, watching Fitz throw it around, trust his recievers, dive for first downs and make games exciting was a breath of fresh air. I thought we finally had found that guy who took a while to bloom but was now our guy. For once we got the better end of a guy bouncing around the league.

 

Last season when were went 5-2 to start, Fitz was looking like a sure pro bowler and we looked like a playoff team. The final games, i dont know what happened and yesterday was just more of the same. I want Fitz to be great, I want him to do well, I want to call him our gamer QB. As good as this defense should and can be, even they cant account for 4 TOs from our offense. Our season rides on Fitz. I hope he can turn it around. This is talented team on paper, but without consistent QB play, we cant play with the big boys yet

 

as much as ive heard you, and others say how great he looked the first 7 games.... i know many of us were still worried.

 

the bengals game was uninspired, we all remember his terrible throws against the giants, the eagles game only had one completion travel more than 10 yards down field in the air... i know a lot of people were highly concerned about a lack of a second tier to the passing game (not just deep balls but that 10-30 yard range).

 

there were red flags that this was the same fitz that would eventually regress back to his normal levels. hes a streaky player. hes not especially gifted compared to his peers, and will make mistakes, and have to take some risks because of it.

 

 

 

[All_Pro_Bills]

as much as ive heard you, and others say how great he looked the first 7 games.... i know many of us were still worried.

 

the bengals game was uninspired, we all remember his terrible throws against the giants, the eagles game only had one completion travel more than 10 yards down field in the air... i know a lot of people were highly concerned about a lack of a second tier to the passing game (not just deep balls but that 10-30 yard range).

 

there were red flags that this was the same fitz that would eventually regress back to his normal levels. hes a streaky player. hes not especially gifted compared to his peers, and will make mistakes, and have to take some risks because of it.

 

Which begs the question why the coach wants to run a high risk (with this QB at the helm) offense with so many 4 or 5 wide set plays, calls way too many pass plays, and does not utiize the running game more effectively when you have two very god backs and a relatively solid offensive line?

[NoSaint]

 

 

Which begs the question why the coach wants to run a high risk (with this QB at the helm) offense with so many 4 or 5 wide set plays, calls way too many pass plays, and does not utiize the running game more effectively when you have two very god backs and a relatively solid offensive line?

 

well, it shouldnt be high risk. flat out.

 

fitz doing what he did last week is not something you can go into a season banking on. hopefully it wont happen too often.

 

part of what helps our line and backs is that very scheme. we have been middle of the road on our run/pass splits - which most posters dont actually realize. 50-50 is not a real thing anymore, with the layout of the league/rules. only 2 teams hit 50% runs in 2011, and likewise in 2010. 1 of those 4 squads was the tebow led broncos, and i dont think we are going to go to an option game.

 

ultimately stretching horizontally like we do lends itself to higher percentage passes (fitz % at an all time high), quicker passes (fitz sack numbers among the league leaders) and big gaps in the middle of the field to run through (jackson and spiller among the highest ypc). its not a terrible scheme, but we need to have fitz cut the interceptions and we need to be willing to push an extra 10 or so yards in the depth of our routes to open up the area the defense has to key on more. unfortunately, whether we have the qb, or wrs to execute the needed changes might be a different question - that is an issue in ANY scheme, and changing to a smash mouth setup would only handicap the running game by clogging lanes. its a tough spot scheming without talent.

[Alphadawg7]

I am not sure if this has been done before, apologies if this is redundant, but Sunday was really the last piece of evidence I needed to convince me that as much as I like Fitz, he's just not a quality starting QB in this league. My OCD nature got me to looking up all the starting QBs in the league on opening day and how they got into the league. I think there are a few telling statistics, that while not surprising and can sometimes be misleading, lead me to believe that in one way or another we must address QB early in next year's draft.

 

Of the 32 starting QBs in the league, 23 (72%) were drafted in Round 1 and 2 in Round 2 (78% if you combine Rd 1 & 2). Tony Romo is the only undrafted guy and the lowest drafted guy is…wait, Ryan Fitzpatrick at pick 250.

 

Of the 32 starting QBs in the league, we wouldn’t have been able to draft 16 of them because they were off the board when our pick came up (unless tried to trade up).

 

Of the QBs that were drafted in Round 1 or 2 that we didn’t draft, instead we took:

Nate Clements in 2001, Drew Brees was first pick of Rd 2

Donte Whitner in 2006, Jay Cutler drafted later in Rd 1.

Leodis McKelvin in 2008, Joe Flacco drafted later in Rd 1

Aaron Maybin in 2009, Josh Freeman drafted later in Rd 1

Aaron Williams in 2011, Andy Dalton drafted 1 pick later in Rd. 2

Marcel Dareus in 2011, Gabbert, Locker, Ponder all drafted later in Rd 1

Stephon Gilmore in 2012, Weeden drafted later in Rd 1

 

In the if you trade up for a QB, you better be sure he’s the real deal department (aka the try not to throw up in your mouth department):

In 2004 we traded up to pick JP Losman. We gave Dallas our next year number 1. The following year, in 2005, our pick was the 20^th pick. Aaron Rogers was the 24^th pick in that draft. OUCH.

 

There are also a lot of misses in by teams selecting QBs in the first few rounds. And there are some exceptions to teams getting lucky drafting a guy late (Brady) or picking up a UFA (Romo), but I think the point is that if we want to get an above average QB on this team, we either need to be terrible for a year and get a high pick, do everything we can to create a package to trade up (a la Redskins), or "reach" for a guy who according to the experts might not have a Top -15 grade.

 

** Disclaimer - I understand that: 1) Hindsight is 20/20. 2) Extraneous reasons (coaches, players around him, etc...) could prevent a QB that was successful somewhere else, not be as successful in Buffalo

 

*** I tried to attach the spreadsheet but it looked like a jumbled mess...

 

Want to know the best part...QB's taken in the first 15 picks have a lower bust percentage than other positions taken in the first 15. And when they hit they change franchises forever. Hitting on a tackle, RB, WR, DE, DT is great, but that one player will single handedly turn around a losing team where a QB can completely turn a franchise around.

 

Its unacceptable that A) We have an owner who publicly said we need to draft a QB 2 years ago yet still have not and B) That we have a staff that has seen as much film and play on Fitz and yet still thinks they can win with him.

 

If Fitz was say Carson Palmer, I would get it. At least Palmer had some stellar years, so maybe they would believe they could rehabilitate him into a quality starter again. But Fitz has never had a good season, never had a winning season, never been consistent, never not been turnover prone, and never been a guy to build around. He is not a rookie, he is what he is, yet they refuse to try and upgrade.

 

Look around the league and team after team has clear evidence of what is needed to truly compete...a true QB who can be counted on week in and week out.

 

No joke, Fitz has literally LOST us way more games than he has helped us win. There are many games where we literally lost mostly because of Fitz over the last 3 years where better QB play would have made the difference in winning and losing.