A thought regarding the 2010 draft

[Reed83HOF]

I just can't fathom this. Buddy came in, changed coaching staffs AND defensive schemes. So you're saying he relied on scouting reports from the old regime - who were scouting for 4-3 defenders - in making selections to transition to a 3-4? There is no way he did that - and if he did do that, he's even more inept than I thought.

 

I didn't say/mean that. Let me try again, they are 2 seperate topics...

 

First topic: Scouting Department/ Modrak & Pro Personnel/Guy

 

Buddy was hired as GM on 12/31/09. Guy was let go Jan 20, 2010 and Modrak was gone in May of 2011.

 

Typically when an new GM comes in prior to the draft, the scouting departments and that side of the organization don't change until after the upcoming draft. Yes additional scouting continues to occur at the end of the college football season to the draft and they are usually from the previous regime, in this case Modrak. Rarely are there shkeups in any team's scouting departments until after the draft, when the scouts contracts are typically up. Buddy came in and drafted starting in 2010 using the reports and info complied under Modrak's scouting department. Yes Buddy was a scout prior to becoming GM, but he didn't single handley scout every player in the country and may not have known the inabilities of the scouts in the other regions. He had 3 /12 months from the time he was hired as GM to the 2010 draft. The information used in the 2010 draft was headed up by the old Modrak scouting regime.

 

Buddy's first priority as GM was cleaning house on Pro Personnel (John Guy), he brought in Whaley and concetrated on shoring up that side of the organization, as the FA cycle was going to commence first; it was also widely known that we signed a lot of crappy FAs. Resources adn time went into reuilding that part of the organization. I am sure that Buddy spent time evalutaing that FA class, plus trying to evaluate the "talent" on our own roster. Again he was performing in this capacity 3 1/2 months before the 2010 draft. That is not a lot of time, let alone enough time for 1 person to fully scout our roster, watching game tapes to make decisions on who to sign, to find a HC and to make decisions on what FAs to bring in.

 

An argument coule be made that after the 2010 draft Buddy should have parted ways with Modrak and the scouting department. Contracts for scouts tyically are up after the draft. I would argue that again, he was still trying to build the 2010 team, evaluate our roster, get up to speed with Gailey and the coaching staff and to continue with the rebuild of the Pro Personnel side. He did not have enough time, to replace the entire scouting department prior to scouting the 2010 college teams. He did move slower than some other teams when they make a change, but aside from us I would only say the Browns and the Raiders did a worse job in evaluating talent than us. Again, it wasn't a lot of time.

 

The 2011 draft again was Modrak's guys; but with Whaley now heading up Pro Personnel and that area rebuilt - Buddy was able to spend more time overseeing the scouting process and putting his stamp on it. After the 2011 draft they were cut loose and new scouts were brought in.

 

Second Part: 43-34

 

Switiching from the 43 and to the 34 in 2010 also caused issues for us and impacted on who we drafted. These 2 points have been discussed ad nausiam:

 

1.) Spiller was the consensus BPA at 9

 

2.) Troupe was taken to be the NT, we lacked one on our roster and to run a 34 you kinda sorta really need that position.

 

Moates, Carrington were brought in to play 34 positions. This change did dictate what players were looked in this draft. It wasn't simply BPA, but BPA in position of need.

 

Again as mentioned above he was GM 3 1/2 months prior to this draft. What scouting reports do you think he used? Who were the Scouts? Did Buddy have time to rescout all of the players in the 2010 draft? exactly my point...

[Coach Tuesday]

Don't know about the rest of you, but the switch to and from the 3-4 gives me pause but also impresses me on some other levels. I understand what they were looking for when they did it, but they also weren't really able to assemble the right players with the right kind of coaching to aid in that transition. Bringing in Wannstedt and switching to the 4-3 seems like an admission of failure but it's also a smart way to capitalize on what are arguably the two best players on the defense right now, and to get them on the field. It also opened up the space for Mario to come here. The LBs are still a work in progress and I hope they are truly able to benefit from some stout play in front of them this year. Hopefully we get a better sense in the next year of Buddy's ability to draft for this defense. So far the results have been middling aside from the obvious pick of Dareus.

 

I don't disagree with that. But blaming the 2010 draft on "the switch to the 3-4" is a red herring, because the players they drafted can't play in a 3-4 either - they just suck, period. Sure, Troup's been injured, but his technique was horrible before his injury. Carrington can't seem to make plays in any defense. I don't see Batten thriving elsewhere, either. Calloway, Easley and Levi Brown play on the other side of the ball. It was simply a botched draft - there are no excuses.

[RuntheDamnBall]

I don't disagree with that. But blaming the 2010 draft on "the switch to the 3-4" is a red herring, because the players they drafted can't play in a 3-4 either - they just suck, period. Sure, Troup's been injured, but his technique was horrible before his injury. Carrington can't seem to make plays in any defense. I don't see Batten thriving elsewhere, either. Calloway, Easley and Levi Brown play on the other side of the ball. It was simply a botched draft - there are no excuses.

I think it was a lousy draft made to look worse by the injury issues for Troup and Easley. Ideally speaking, Troup was going to come in and be the NT-type, but another funny thing happened along with Troup getting injured, which was Kyle Williams proving he had talent that was going to keep him on the field no matter what. Carrington confuses me. He disappears but he also shows flashes of talent. Perhaps Wannstedt can find a way for him to succeed and get his technique in line with his athleticism so he can use his size.

 

Spiller was definitely not the right player for this team at that time. He may have been the best player available on pure talent but this team simply didn't need another running back and it's not a slam-dunk like a WR deep team picking up a guy like AJ Green, or Larry Fitzgerald, for example. So, that's sort of mistake #1. I do hold out some hope for Carrington and Moats and wouldn't close the book on them yet. Defensive players can take some time to come into their own - Ted Washington might be my favorite case of this.

 

I think if you have 3-4 duds in a full draft it's excusable. So far, Batten, Calloway, and Levi Brown are certified for that category, and the rest aren't looking super hot. Let's hope Spiller takes his production to another level this season, and that maybe Moats and Carrington prove dependable this year, and not all will be lost.

[JohnC]

I didn't say/mean that. Let me try again, they are 2 seperate topics...

 

First topic: Scouting Department/ Modrak & Pro Personnel/Guy

 

Buddy was hired as GM on 12/31/09. Guy was let go Jan 20, 2010 and Modrak was gone in May of 2011.

 

Typically when an new GM comes in prior to the draft, the scouting departments and that side of the organization don't change until after the upcoming draft. Yes additional scouting continues to occur at the end of the college football season to the draft and they are usually from the previous regime, in this case Modrak. Rarely are there shkeups in any team's scouting departments until after the draft, when the scouts contracts are typically up. Buddy came in and drafted starting in 2010 using the reports and info complied under Modrak's scouting department. Yes Buddy was a scout prior to becoming GM, but he didn't single handley scout every player in the country and may not have known the inabilities of the scouts in the other regions. He had 3 /12 months from the time he was hired as GM to the 2010 draft. The information used in the 2010 draft was headed up by the old Modrak scouting regime.

 

Buddy's first priority as GM was cleaning house on Pro Personnel (John Guy), he brought in Whaley and concetrated on shoring up that side of the organization, as the FA cycle was going to commence first; it was also widely known that we signed a lot of crappy FAs. Resources adn time went into reuilding that part of the organization. I am sure that Buddy spent time evalutaing that FA class, plus trying to evaluate the "talent" on our own roster. Again he was performing in this capacity 3 1/2 months before the 2010 draft. That is not a lot of time, let alone enough time for 1 person to fully scout our roster, watching game tapes to make decisions on who to sign, to find a HC and to make decisions on what FAs to bring in.

 

An argument coule be made that after the 2010 draft Buddy should have parted ways with Modrak and the scouting department. Contracts for scouts tyically are up after the draft. I would argue that again, he was still trying to build the 2010 team, evaluate our roster, get up to speed with Gailey and the coaching staff and to continue with the rebuild of the Pro Personnel side. He did not have enough time, to replace the entire scouting department prior to scouting the 2010 college teams. He did move slower than some other teams when they make a change, but aside from us I would only say the Browns and the Raiders did a worse job in evaluating talent than us. Again, it wasn't a lot of time.

 

The 2011 draft again was Modrak's guys; but with Whaley now heading up Pro Personnel and that area rebuilt - Buddy was able to spend more time overseeing the scouting process and putting his stamp on it. After the 2011 draft they were cut loose and new scouts were brought in.

 

Second Part: 43-34

 

Switiching from the 43 and to the 34 in 2010 also caused issues for us and impacted on who we drafted. These 2 points have been discussed ad nausiam:

 

1.) Spiller was the consensus BPA at 9

 

2.) Troupe was taken to be the NT, we lacked one on our roster and to run a 34 you kinda sorta really need that position.

 

Moates, Carrington were brought in to play 34 positions. This change did dictate what players were looked in this draft. It wasn't simply BPA, but BPA in position of need.

 

Again as mentioned above he was GM 3 1/2 months prior to this draft. What scouting reports do you think he used? Who were the Scouts? Did Buddy have time to rescout all of the players in the 2010 draft? exactly my point...

 

Superb post. You make a very insightful point that when Nix took over he was rebuilding and remaking the football operation. He was culling through the old Modrak scouting department and adding his own people to replace the departed scouts. That was going to take some time.

 

You also make a very good point that the decision to go to a 3-4 defense had a major influence on how in Nix's first draft the scouting department assessed defensive players. In hindsight, that was a big mistake that set back the rebuild process. Free agency was used to fill the new 4-3 defensive scheme, namely Mario Williams and Anderson.

 

I'm not sure if Nix was involved in the Whaley hire. But it is obvious that having Whaley involved in pro scouting compared to John Guy was a major upgrade. How Guy and Modrak stayed on the job for a decade is a clear indication of the dysfunctional in this second-rate football operation? The concept of accountability was non-existent in this organization. I blame the clueless owner for not understanding that investing in a quality staff will in the long run pay off on the ledger sheet as well as on the field. The hiring of Levy to be a GM was an absurdity that set this organization back for a number of years.

 

There are many (possibly a majority) of people who cling to the notion that Spiller was a bad pick. I'm not one of them. He was drafted in the range where he was ranked. That is the right approach to take in drafting. players. And more importantly he demonstrated to me last year that he is a quality back who has the ability to make impactful plays for a team that lacks big play capabilities on offense.

[Reed83HOF]

Superb post. You make a very insightful point that when Nix took over he was rebuilding and remaking the football operation. He was culling through the old Modrak scouting department and adding his own people to replace the departed scouts. That was going to take some time.

 

You also make a very good point that the decision to go to a 3-4 defense had a major influence on how in Nix's first draft the scouting department assessed defensive players. In hindsight, that was a big mistake that set back the rebuild process. Free agency was used to fill the new 4-3 defensive scheme, namely Mario Williams and Anderson.

 

I'm not sure if Nix was involved in the Whaley hire. But it is obvious that having Whaley involved in pro scouting compared to John Guy was a major upgrade. How Guy and Modrak stayed on the job for a decade is a clear indication of the dysfunctional in this second-rate football operation? The concept of accountability was non-existent in this organization. I blame the clueless owner for not understanding that investing in a quality staff will in the long run pay off on the ledger sheet as well as on the field. The hiring of Levy to be a GM was an absurdity that set this organization back for a number of years.

 

There are many (possibly a majority) of people who cling to the notion that Spiller was a bad pick. I'm not one of them. He was drafted in the range where he was ranked. That is the right approach to take in drafting. players. And more importantly he demonstrated to me last year that he is a quality back who has the ability to make impactful plays for a team that lacks big play capabilities on offense.

 

Thanks John! I just find it hilarious to place that draft all on Nix; there was so much work that needed to be done imnpossible to do in 3 1/2 months and nail a draft. The 2011 draft on - yeah it is all on him.

 

The move from the 43 to the 34 and back t the 43 set us back I would say 2 years. We played the 2010 with G. Edwards as our DC; Schobel retired, we fit squre pegs into round holes in regards to the players remaining from the 43. We drafted and signed 34 players in 2010 and it was an abysmal experiment on the field. With Wanny coming on board it was a clear indictment of Edwards and he should have been cut loose there (I know that I had seen enough). I personally love the 34 D, but we didn't have the personnel or the right DC for it. WIth the way the game has changed I hate to say it, but the 43 makes more sense; but I degress. In 2011, I have a feeling that Buddy sensed that we needed to change back and he tailored the draft and FA towards that. Besides we now had Dareus and Williams, how could you not want to run a 43 with those 2 beasts in the middle. Which leads us to now. I think that if we had stayed 43 all along, we would have invested more in the offense, Schobel would still be playing and we wouldn't have had the lost season on D that we did last season. We should be further along with this rebuild, but the defense switch wasted 2 years. This falls more on Chan than it does Buddy as it is typically the HC who decides what type of D they are going to run. There are areas Chan impresses me with and areas that I think he can really improve on. His decision on the D and than his reversal is what set us back.

 

HIndsight is always 20/20, it is very easy to say we should have taken player x. In this case everyone says we should have taken JPP. Could you imagine how this board would have blown up if we wasted another pick on a defensive 1 year wonder in concurrent years? Normally Buddy does draft BPA and let the draft come to him. 2010 was different, we didn't have the personnel we needed to run a 34 and we weren't going to get many good FAs back then either, especially with Cowher, Shanny, Ron Rivera, Russ Grimm et al turning us away. So Buddy reached to fill holes and positions of need, which is a recipe for disaster. I would argue that he had no choice given the overall state of our franchise at that point in time. In some ways you can also use that same argument through the 2011 season; Merriman and Mario changed everything for us when it comes to FAs. It was this reason that gave us Troupe, Carrington and Moats.

 

I understand Ralph not wanting to give someone that he doesn't know full/a lot of control over the franchise again after Tommy D was canned; I would have been hestitant too. Ralph also was getting up there in age, so he obviously was trying to take a few steps back. A mistake of his was not cleaning house and you are entirely correct about zero accountability. Modrak and Guy should have been gone years ago. The Marv years were a waste as far as football goes, it did allow for Brandon to rise up through the organization and for the atmosphere to be cleared and become productive again. A solid GM hire should have been made there.

[Green Lightning]

Buddy is turning this team around in 3 years with good drafts, solid FA acquisitions and brilliant waiver wire and UFA moves. For those nitpicking his drafts see how well Belecheat has done with some of his recent drafts. Albeit Gronk and but not a lot of blue chippers

[JohnC]

Thanks John! I just find it hilarious to place that draft all on Nix; there was so much work that needed to be done imnpossible to do in 3 1/2 months and nail a draft. The 2011 draft on - yeah it is all on him.

 

When Nix took over the football operation the Bills were in a state of chaos from both the football and organizational side of the franchise. Although Nix made some ludicrous comments about the Bills not being far away from being a good team the Bills were basically at an expansion level status. Nix had to reorganizae the front office and establish a consistent organizational approach. His approach was basic: draft well, develop your players and then to the best of your ability keep them. There is nothing innovative about that approach but it is the standard method of success for most of the consistently good franchises.

 

I'm not suggesting that Nix is a top tier GM. But I am comfortable in saying that he is a good GM who knows what it takes to build a competitive franchise and run it in a very competent manner. I give him a lot of credit in understanding the relationship between value and talent. In a cap system of business he knows how to operate reasonably well.

 

 

 

I understand Ralph not wanting to give someone that he doesn't know full/a lot of control over the franchise again after Tommy D was canned; I would have been hestitant too. Ralph also was getting up there in age, so he obviously was trying to take a few steps back. A mistake of his was not cleaning house and you are entirely correct about zero accountability. Modrak and Guy should have been gone years ago. The Marv years were a waste as far as football goes, it did allow for Brandon to rise up through the organization and for the atmosphere to be cleared and become productive again. A solid GM hire should have been made there.

 

Whether Ralph was young or old it doesn't matter. He made a horrendous and illogical decision to replace Donahoe with Levy. When you have a billion $$$$ business it makes little sense to hire someone so ill-equipped for such a crucial job as the GM position. That was a non-sensical hire by an owner who was simply too incompetent and too out of touch to make such an important an decision. Being an owner allows you the privilege of making your own foolish decisions. It doesn't allow you to escape from being accountable.

 

As I stated in the prior post and other posts the Spiller pick was not an unreasonable pick. He was selected where he was ranked, as was Gilmore in this year's draft. Establishing a draft board and in "general" adhering to it when drafting is the smart way to approach the draft. What it comes down to is that you prioritize talent over positions. Again, that is the wisest way in approaching a draft.

[CarolinaBill]

does anyone realize that once troup gets healthy and contributes we wwill have 4 solid players from that draft, thats about as much as you could expect. Spiller is poised for a breakout yr and will be the guy by next yr, moats is starting, and AC is a solid rotational player, its not bad.

 

This idea that we are supposed to hit on every pick is absurd, it doesn't work that way.