Post Convention Bounce?

[WorldTraveller]

We were discussing the map's toss-up states. Try to keep up.

 

 

 

Your campaign of optimism for Romney's chances is so objective.

 

If you consider my "objectivity" based on polling data you are correct, whereas you on the otherhand go purely based on empty declaratives and your gut feeling.

 

RCP has it at exactly EVEN

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

 

46.8 to 46. 8

 

The main four battle grounds

 

Ohio +.7 for O

 

http://www.realclear...obama-1860.html

 

 

Virginia + .6 for O

 

http://www.realclear...obama-1774.html

 

Florida +.6 for O

 

http://www.realclear...obama-1883.html

 

N.C +2 for Romney

 

http://www.realclear...obama-1784.html

 

 

 

Half the polls in these polls listed show Romney in the lead and half for O

 

And they have all been moving decisively for Romney over the past two weeks.

 

I've called you out on your bull **** on a few occassions, and all you ever come back with are your meaningless declaratives that carry no weight.

 

Now if you don't have any facts or data to back up your tired bull **** then I would suggest that you stop further embarrasing yourself.

 

Put up or shut up.

Edited September 5, 2012 by WorldTraveller

[John Adams]

If you consider my "objectivity" based on polling data you are correct, whereas you on the otherhand go purely based on empty declaratives and your gut feeling.

 

RCP has it at exactly EVEN

 

http://www.realclear...obama-1171.html

 

46.8 to 46. 8

 

The main four battle grounds

 

Ohio +.7 for O

 

http://www.realclear...obama-1860.html

 

 

Virginia + .6 for O

 

http://www.realclear...obama-1774.html

 

Florida +.6 for O

 

http://www.realclear...obama-1883.html

 

N.C +2 for Romney

 

http://www.realclear...obama-1784.html

 

 

 

Half the polls in these polls listed show Romney in the lead and half for O

 

And they have all been moving decisively for Romney over the past two weeks.

 

I've called you out on your bull **** on a few occassions, and all you ever come back with are your meaningless declaratives that carry no weight.

 

Now if you don't have any facts or data to back up your tired bull **** then I would suggest that you stop further embarrasing yourself.

 

Put up or shut up.

 

Do you even look at the history in those states where things are moving "decisively"? In May and June, Romney was leading in Florida ACCORDING TO YOUR OWN SOURCE...in a state that you have said he "must win." But now he's losing there. But you, a self-proclaimed poll master, are invigorated by Romney's 0.4% jump post convention? You can't even interpret your own source.

 

In North Carolina, Romney has expanded a lead he already had. BFD, Except that if he loses there, it's catastrophic. But even there...Romney's lead is less than it was in May and June. .

 

So, as I have done before, using your own source, I've shown that there is limited reason for optimism.

 

Unlike you, I'll admit that it appears Ohio may have actually made a significant move. VA's most recent polls are almost inexpicable in that huge jump. I don't know if that's real or some sort of polling anomaly. I'd think you'd have the same skepticism about VA but knowing you, you just saw Romney's gap decrease and got excited.

 

The fact that you keep ignoring, and I've mentioned it again and again, is that Romney MUST WIN Florida, and several other states where he's behind. Obama...all he has to do is win Florida. If he does that, he's 20 electoral votes away from 270 and in the toss-up states, that will be easy for him. Romney needs to win Florida...and still get 50 more electoral votes by winning at least two of VA, MI, NC, OH and sweeping the in-play smalls. That's going to be very, very, hard. You refuse to acknowledge the facts of the electoral map.

[WorldTraveller]

I agree, that he HAS to win Florida, without it he has no shot. The point that I'm clearly making is that it's a very close race, and that momentum is on his side. It's not based on a feeling or a hunch, but actual polling data. An objective observer factors in momentum in EVERY single National Polling AND battle ground polling, factors in structural resource advantages heading into the final two months that will play a huge role, factors in historic data that shows that undecided voters tend to break away from the incumbent, factors in that the economy is the number concern of the US electorate and all polling is showing Romney in the lead in this area.

 

Two to three months ago, Obama was feeling a lot better about his possiblities than he does today, and if I was in Romney's camp, I would realize that this is the best position that they've been in since the two man race had begun. Those are facts.

Edited September 5, 2012 by WorldTraveller

[Nanker]

One point bounce is what I read today.

 

These polls are like the market up and down for no particular reason other than pure speculation.

 

Romney's likability is up to 30 percent among the rolling sample of nearly 1,500 registered voters

 

Where? The deep south in Virginia, or rural Kentucky?

 

 

Northern Va where the FED jobs are will determine the VA vote.

 

that red may be blue when all is said and done.

 

And I've noticed a drop in Republican banners on the roads and in yards.

 

http://www.270towin.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/Obama_Romney_11.png

[Buftex]

Colbert reported that the RNC likely tripled Mitts' likely vote percentige amongst African Americans.

Edited September 5, 2012 by Buftex

[Gary M]

Where'd you get that map? There's no way in hell MD isn't blue.

 

The disclaimer says "User Generated"

 

He made it himself.

[John Adams]

YOUR STATEMENT: Two to three months ago, Obama was feeling a lot better about his possiblities than he does today, and if I was in Romney's camp, I would realize that this is the best position that they've been in since the two man race had begun.

 

YOUR CONCLUSION: Those are facts.

 

 

Really? Try not to leave the fruit so low on the branches.

 

Maybe your next post can ignore the facts I included in my post too. You're like a Democrat. You say that I'm a liar and then avoid the numbers. Keep up the good work. Rahm Emanual might hire you someday.

[WorldTraveller]

Seriously, you're acting like a retard.

[Doc]

Colbert reported that the RNC likely tripled Mitts' likely vote percentige amongst African Americans.

So they're likely going to likely vote?

[John Adams]

Seriously, you're acting like a retard.

 

The next time you want me check your work NJSue, you could check it yourself first.

[WorldTraveller]

The next time you want me check your work NJSue, you could check it yourself first.

 

Is that the best you can come up with?

Edited September 5, 2012 by WorldTraveller

[WorldTraveller]

My guess, so far, is that they will get a modest bounce of 3-5% as well. Sure there were some distractions, and of course we still have the main event to go, but I would say they achieved what it was that they were looking for, which was a good speech from Michelle to deliver the "caring" side of Obama, and an embrace, literally of Clinton and Obama, even though they are nothing alike.

[John Adams]

Is that the best you can come up with?

 

I can only call you on your own bull **** so many times and have you ignore it.

 

But because Obama is pompous, the economy is a mess right? Cause and effect, just like you said.

[WorldTraveller]

Wow! You're like a psycho chick stalker

 

and a meathead to boot

 

 

You're already looking foolish in this and the other thread. Wanna go for three?

Edited September 6, 2012 by WorldTraveller