Did the Bills really reach for T.J. Graham?

[Webster Guy]

Please let the season start. These are the threads that make me wish my Stadium Wall addiction wasn't so bad.....

 

Graham may end up a far better pro than Wilson

[Punch]

_{My case was that he beat out Jackson. Should I have said 2 veterans? OK, fine, I'll take that hit. But he did beat out TJ, and his announcement as the starting QB came before the trade.}

 

Once Flynn was signed and Wilson drafted, the writing was on the wall that TJ was out--- that's why I thought you were referring to Flynn.

 

Flynn, Jackson and Whitehurst were all stabs in the dark by Seattle at finding a longterm solution at QB. They've shown a willingness to discard the wrong guy regardless of the cost. Maybe it pans out for them.

[jjmac]

Once Flynn was signed and Wilson drafted, the writing was on the wall that TJ was out--- that's why I thought you were referring to Flynn.

 

Flynn, Jackson and Whitehurst were all stabs in the dark by Seattle at finding a longterm solution at QB. They've shown a willingness to discard the wrong guy regardless of the cost. Maybe it pans out for them.

 

And hopefully for us.

[mob16151]

I'm sure you're not suggesting that NC St was better off without Wilson...Are you? Graham got better, but I'm pretty sure having Wilson at QB would have helped him even more...

 

Well Mike Glennon is a legit NFL QB prospect as well.

[K-9]

Well, this doesn't completely corroborate my statements, but it is in the same general direction. We, as fans, think that draft choices should succeed at a higher rate than history suggests. http://espn.go.com/b...-than-you-think

 

Thanks for the link. It really confirms many suspicions. Imagine the "hit" rate when the draft was 12 rounds? Or 17? Anyway a few things stood out.

 

1.) The need to wait three years before making the assessment. This takes into account the 'development' cycle.

 

2.) The inclusion of undrafted FAs in the equation. They are part of any rookie class and are too easily dismissed by many.

 

3.) The evaluation based on the projected 'role' the player has on your team.

 

4.) The 'hit' rate is a lot lower if only calculated for those players that actually end up starting.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

Every one had him going later , so this one of those overreactions as usual by the Bills. Do you really think he wouldn't be there two spots latter where we were supposed to draft him.

 

Doesn't matter one iota. Whether the info the Bills had at the time was complete bs or not, whether the wool was totally pulled over their eyes or not, they had info that said a team was taking their targeted player before they could. They simply secured that targeted player and removed any chance from the equation.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Damond Talbot]

what do you think will be TJ's final stats his rookie year?

[CarolinaBill]

what do you think will be TJ's final stats his rookie year?

50ish catches, 600yds 5-8 tds

[D521646]

Thing is, as good as Wilson looks (I know I started a thread on it after I saw him in the first pre-season game) a contemporaneous look back when the draft was going on and the days following, only a handful of Bills fans were saying that we should have grabbed Wilson instead of Graham. Truth is that we all scratched our heads on TJ going in the third, but we understood the logic behind it. In Nix and chan we trust was the mantra, "they knew something we didn't".. And all that jazz. TJ looks good as well, and we could have our legit deep threat with him, we'll all know soon enough, but second guessing gets no one anywhere. They'll be more Wilson's to come, and so far Wilson hasn't won an NFL game and only gone up against first team defenses once if not mistaken. This book isn't even past the monologue yet..

 

 

Tim-

[Alphadawg7]

Reading through this thread its clear its just become about pissing in each others corn flakes depending on if you are on the new Wilson bandwagon or on the new TJ bandwagon (as most of you bashed this pick on draft day). Most of these posts completely miss the mark on what the REAL question is about all of this. Its not who is better, TJ or Wilson. Its not who should we have drafted, TJ or Wilson. Its not was TJ to early or a reach.

 

The real question is about QB talent evaluation. Clearly we have a need for a WR that can stretch the field. But also, clearly the FO feels this team needs help at QB in at least a back up capacity as they have demonstrated thus far. So, what is the deal with the FO ability to find a QB to develop when all their actions clearly indicate they feel they need one for at the very least a backup QB?

 

What about Fitz...Is Fitz really better than what he has shown? He has 7 years in the NFL that say no, but our staff keeps saying he is (much like they kept pushing Trent down our throats). This preseason has not done anything to convince anyone that Fitz will be any better than in past years, and those past years are not good enough to continue as our starter. Now I KNOW its only preseason, but this isnt a guy who is a proven and winning QB having a bad preseason, this is a guy who has never had a consistent full season in his career, not one. So when you see the same ole performances out of him, its concerning. It makes me wonder what it is they see in him that keeps them from looking to upgrade the QB position or what is it I am missing and not seeing.

 

You cant upgrade everything in one season, but they could have taken Dalton or Mallet last year, they could have taken Cousins, Foles, Wilson this year all at great value positions...all of which have shown a lot more promise than Thigpen, Young, or Jackson...and most with more upside than even Fitz. Why is it other teams see potential worth drafting and our guys don't see it and prefer to stick with Fitz and Pigpen? What is our FO missing in the evaluation of these players that others are not?

 

None of this is TJ's fault, and he looks to have a lot of promise and I do not have a problem with us taking him as we have the slowest group of WR's in the NFL outside of maybe Miami. The question becomes, is a small speedy stretch the field project WR going to turn Fitz into a productive QB and make this team good enough to contend, or is getting a quality QB prospect to develop as a backup or potential starter more important? The way they went after Vince and Jackson, it would suggest there is a bigger QB need here then they are letting on and I have to wonder why didn't they see what Was and Sea saw in Cousins and Wilson...or Philly in Foles.

 

Think about it...Sea just signed Flynn to a good contract to be the starter and had a capable backup in Jackson...but they still draft Wilson? What is it they saw in him where they said we still need to draft this guy even though we just spent a bunch of money on a FA QB to be their starter? Wash just traded a bounty to draft RG3 to be the starter...but still had to draft Cousins in the 4th? What is it their staff saw that felt he was just too much of a steal at that point to draft him anyway when they needed help at so many other places, especially after all they traded to get RG3. Even Philly took Foles despite having Vick and Kafka who they are reportedly very high on too. And the bigger question is, what is it our staff missed about these guys that made them feel a project small speedy WR was more valuable than a young QB prospect with so much potential that teams that did not need them still felt they must draft them?

 

I don't need 30 replies saying "its only preseason" or "let them throw one pass first"...those are cop out responses to real questions. No one is saying any of these QB's will have better careers than TJ and no one is saying TJ is going to have a better career than these QB prospects. I get its only been preseason, this isnt about that...if feel the need to reply with that, then I suggest you read this post again.

 

For the record, I am not saying we should have done this or that...what is done is done, and I like TJ's potential. At the same time, I have real concerns about our QB situation and have for the better part of a decade and so far, every QB has proven those concerns right, including Fitz the last 2 years. I would love nothing more than some QB to prove those concerns wrong, it just hasnt happened yet.

Edited August 29, 2012 by Alphadawg7

[CarolinaBill]

i think this FO has decided to get as many pieces in place before pulling the trigger on a QB, by now we all know that the only qb they REALLY wanted was Cam, and for good reason, but aside from him, we havent been starring at a real franchise qb in any of the last 3 drafts. Next yr is the time as that will change, this FO will see exactly how far they can get with fitz this yr and come draft day next yr we will take a qb, maybe not rd 1, but sometime in the first 2 days.

[....lybob]

Did the Bills reach on Graham? probably but so what, I thought they took TY Hilton with the pick when I first heard it, - I liked Mohamed Sanu, WR, Donald Stephenson OT, Brandon Brooks OG, Demario Davis LB, and Michael Egnew TE for that pick and as far as I know none of those guys are ripping it up in camp- Brandon Wilson wasn't even on my radar because he's 5,11 200lb and as right now Drew Brees is the only guy who has made that work recently - I'll give Seattle credit for taking him but I wouldn't give the Bills grief for not taking him.

[mannc]

You cant upgrade everything in one season, but they could have taken Dalton or Mallet last year, they could have taken Cousins, Foles, Wilson this year all at great value positions...all of which have shown a lot more promise than Thigpen, Young, or Jackson...and most with more upside than even Fitz. Why is it other teams see potential worth drafting and our guys don't see it and prefer to stick with Fitz and Pigpen? What is our FO missing in the evaluation of these players that others are not?

 

This is the key point. The FO seems to have put a lot of the pieces in place for this team to make a playoff run, but the bottom line is that, despite all that, the Bills, like pretty much every other team in the league, will go only as far as their QB takes them. In 7 years in the league, Fitz has not shown he can take a team to the playoffs, much less to a Super Bowl. For a team like the Bills that has serious question marks/deficiencies at QB, it is downright irresponsible NOT to take serious steps in the offseason to upgrade the position NOW, rather than always waiting for the next draft. Obviously you can't and shouldn't use a first round pick on a QB every year, but you should at least use a mid or lower round pick on a developmental prospect every year until you find THE guy. By my calculations, the Bills have drafted exactly one QB since taking Trent Edwards, and that was a 7th rounder from a minor program. Sorry, but that's just not acceptable in today's NFL.

Edited August 29, 2012 by mannc

[K-9]

Did the Bills reach on Graham? probably but so what, I thought they took TY Hilton with the pick when I first heard it, - I liked Mohamed Sanu, WR, Donald Stephenson OT, Brandon Brooks OG, Demario Davis LB, and Michael Egnew TE for that pick and as far as I know none of those guys are ripping it up in camp- Brandon Wilson wasn't even on my radar because he's 5,11 200lb and as right now Drew Brees is the only guy who has made that work recently - I'll give Seattle credit for taking him but I wouldn't give the Bills grief for not taking him.

 

You're thinking of Russell Weeden.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Edited August 29, 2012 by K-9

[Damond Talbot]

CarolinaBill really 50 catches for 8 touchdowns? That would be amazing, that would be a great pick. I hope your right

[....lybob]

You're thinking of Russell Weeden.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

ooopps

[Chandemonium]

 

 

You're thinking of Russell Weeden.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Don't you mean Russ Brandon?

[Shamrock]

Before we lament not taking Wilson can we please see the guy play in games that matter? I am not saying R.Wilson will or won't be a good NFL QB.

Sorry it took me awhile, just realized that if the Bills had called R. Wilson it may have been embarrassing having a 93 come to the podium...

[Sisyphean Bills]

The real question is about QB talent evaluation. Clearly we have a need for a WR that can stretch the field. But also, clearly the FO feels this team needs help at QB in at least a back up capacity as they have demonstrated thus far. So, what is the deal with the FO ability to find a QB to develop when all their actions clearly indicate they feel they need one for at the very least a backup QB?

 

What about Fitz...Is Fitz really better than what he has shown? He has 7 years in the NFL that say no, but our staff keeps saying he is (much like they kept pushing Trent down our throats). This preseason has not done anything to convince anyone that Fitz will be any better than in past years, and those past years are not good enough to continue as our starter. Now I KNOW its only preseason, but this isnt a guy who is a proven and winning QB having a bad preseason, this is a guy who has never had a consistent full season in his career, not one. So when you see the same ole performances out of him, its concerning. It makes me wonder what it is they see in him that keeps them from looking to upgrade the QB position or what is it I am missing and not seeing.

 

You cant upgrade everything in one season, but they could have taken Dalton or Mallet last year, they could have taken Cousins, Foles, Wilson this year all at great value positions...all of which have shown a lot more promise than Thigpen, Young, or Jackson...and most with more upside than even Fitz. Why is it other teams see potential worth drafting and our guys don't see it and prefer to stick with Fitz and Pigpen? What is our FO missing in the evaluation of these players that others are not?

 

Good arguments, Dog. Talent evaluation has been questionable for the Bills for quite some time. Hopefully, that is getting better but one should really wait for the results to come in before counting the hanging chads. Still, why is it that Nix and Gailey continue 3 years into putting their finger prints on this team to bargain bin shop for QBs and stick with a retread that never showed enough to beat out Trent Edwards for the starting job? One might think that an offensive guru and former college QB would be at the front of the line wanting to work with and mold the best talent at the position, talent that he could use to explore his innovative offensive concepts in new ways. As opposed to always trying to work around the limitations of a retread QB that has failed to "click" in multiple other NFL stops. Do they hand out trophies and rings for getting more out of a limited QB than other coaching staffs? The Kordell Stewart Award or something?

[Sisyphean Bills]

This is the key point. The FO seems to have put a lot of the pieces in place for this team to make a playoff run, but the bottom line is that, despite all that, the Bills, like pretty much every other team in the league, will go only as far as their QB takes them. In 7 years in the league, Fitz has not shown he can take a team to the playoffs, much less to a Super Bowl. For a team like the Bills that has serious question marks/deficiencies at QB, it is downright irresponsible NOT to take serious steps in the offseason to upgrade the position NOW, rather than always waiting for the next draft. Obviously you can't and shouldn't use a first round pick on a QB every year, but you should at least use a mid or lower round pick on a developmental prospect every year until you find THE guy. By my calculations, the Bills have drafted exactly one QB since taking Trent Edwards, and that was a 7th rounder from a minor program. Sorry, but that's just not acceptable in today's NFL.

 

Does Levi Brown count as an attempt? You're correct that the Nix era has been remiss in addressing the QB position in the draft. They have instead focused on other areas, including building a 3-4 defense that has already been scrapped. And it does raise questions about the direction and plan.

 

As to Cam Newton, they may have indeed been interested in him. He is a complete athletic freak, maybe even a Jim Brown sort of player (if you don't know Jim Brown think Michael Jordan). If they really wanted Cam Newton and had fallen in love hard for the kid, did they pursue trading with Carolina? Secondly, if they are waiting for athletic freaks to fall to them in the draft to solve their QB talent deficits, then isn't that being a little too picky? To say that you will only spend time developing a once in a lifetime freak talent as a rookie because you'd rather ring whatever blood was left in the turnip that just fell out of the reclamation wagon seems a little disingenuous, no?

[artmalibu]

To use another player to determine if Graham is a reach or not is pointless!! At this point it looks as if Graham will not only make the team but will also contribute. So, if Graham can contribute and his speed stretches defenses he is not a reach in the 3rd, he was a GREAT pick!!