Did Lombardi nail it Re: Fitz and offence

[LiterateStylish]

Last season 76 catches vs 135 targets, thats 59 drops, and he is the best WR on the

 

Wow. Absolutely wrong. You clearly are not good at statistical analysis.

[Orton's Arm]

Sorry to nitpick, but no, it's not 59 drops.

 

I just would hate to have that become the next oft-repeated stat that is either flat-out wrong or taken out of context.

 

I know that you're not saying he sucks based on that misinterpretation of stats, but others surely might.

 

Here's a good article re: drop rates: http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/01/17/drop-rate-2011-which-receivers-are-dropping-the-ball/

 

Notice that SJ is not in the top 20. Someone posted it recently but I thought it applies here too.

 

To put targets vs completions in context, Roddy White had 179 targets last year to his 100 receptions, which is pretty much on par with SJ.

Good post, and thanks for the link.

 

In 2011, Stevie Johnson had 76 receptions. However many drops he had, they weren't enough to put him on that list of WRs with the worst drop rates in the NFL. Brandon Marshall had about as many receptions as Johnson--81 for Marshall, 76 for Stevie. Marshall's 14 drops were enough to put him on the list of the 20 NFL receivers with the worst drop rate. For Stevie to have avoided that list, he must have had fewer drops than Brandon Marshall. This means Stevie had less than 14 drops.

Edited August 29, 2012 by Edwards' Arm

[thewildrabbit]

Of course you can. Statistically, it is very relevant.

 

 

 

And yet they only scored 22 more points. So what is your point? That a better QB, better O-line, better defense and so forth doesn't equal more points?

 

Also, it's ridiculous to say that the Giants have a better play caller.

Sure, you can delude yourself into anything you want. The bottom line for playing pro football is wins, not stats. Like the 22 sacks for the Bills O line is the result of Fitz and his ability to get the ball out rather then the all pro players on that line the Bills have.

 

Chan Gailey is 10-22 as the Bills HC, and he was fired from his previous job as OC of the Chiefs in 08 where his team went 2-14.(26 in pts, 24 in yards) Until he wins 2x super bowls, I'd say he is inferior to Kevin Gilbride!

Sorry to nitpick, but no, it's not 59 drops.

 

I just would hate to have that become the next oft-repeated stat that is either flat-out wrong or taken out of context.

 

I know that you're not saying he sucks based on that misinterpretation of stats, but others surely might.

 

Here's a good article re: drop rates: http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/01/17/drop-rate-2011-which-receivers-are-dropping-the-ball/

 

Notice that SJ is not in the top 20. Someone posted it recently but I thought it applies here too.

 

To put targets vs completions in context, Roddy White had 179 targets last year to his 100 receptions, which is pretty much on par with SJ.

Yea okie,my bad, wrong use of stats. I meant SJ was targeted 135 times and caught 76 passes. SJ does drop his share of balls tho, and at the most inopportune times.

 

The point was he is the best WR on the team and nobody is really close to him, and the 3rd, 4th, 5th WR's on the team stink. what does it tell you when the backup QB is the 4th best WR.

[iinii]

 

Chan Gailey is 10-22 as the Bills HC, and he was fired from his previous job as OC of the Chiefs in 08 where his team went 2-14.(26 in pts, 24 in yards) Until he wins 2x super bowls, I'd say he is inferior to Kevin Gilbride!

 

That is so sad, and it all makes me respect Tom Coughlin more. He is the first HC to stop Gilbride from relying extensively on the chuck and duck. I often wonder what he said to him.

[Orton's Arm]

Sure, you can delude yourself into anything you want. The bottom line for playing pro football is wins, not stats. Like the 22 sacks for the Bills O line is the result of Fitz and his ability to get the ball out rather then the all pro players on that line the Bills have.

 

Chan Gailey is 10-22 as the Bills HC, and he was fired from his previous job as OC of the Chiefs in 08 where his team went 2-14.(26 in pts, 24 in yards) Until he wins 2x super bowls, I'd say he is inferior to Kevin Gilbride!

Yea okie,my bad, wrong use of stats. I meant SJ was targeted 135 times and caught 76 passes. SJ does drop his share of balls tho, and at the most inopportune times.

 

The point was he is the best WR on the team and nobody is really close to him, and the 3rd, 4th, 5th WR's on the team stink. what does it tell you when the backup QB is the 4th best WR.

 

> Like the 22 sacks for the Bills O line is the result of Fitz and his ability to get the ball out rather then the all pro players on that line the Bills have.

 

Agreed. Fitz gets rid of the ball quickly, and makes the OL look better than it really is.

 

> Chan Gailey is 10-22 as the Bills HC, and he was fired from his previous job as OC of the Chiefs in 08 where his team went 2-14 (26 in pts, 24 in yards)

 

Gailey served as the Chiefs' offensive coordinator for just one year: 2008. You pointed out the Chiefs' offensive stats weren't very good in 2008, and that's true. But do you know who his starting quarterback was that year? . . .

 

. . .

 

 

Wait for it . . .

 

Tyler Thigpen!

 

I'll pause for a minute to let that fact sink in. It takes a bit for the Tylerness of it and the Thigpenness of it to really permeate the brain.

 

Put yourself in Gailey's position. You wake up one morning, and realize that Tyler Thigpen is now the best non-injured QB on your roster. So you get creative, and somehow figure out a way to build an offense around Thigpen's, um, strengths. This offense actually manages to do something. It didn't set the world on fire, but it's not exactly as though Thigpen is the second coming of Joe Montana. Or even the second coming of Alex van Pelt.

 

Then Gailey came to Buffalo, where it turned out his best QB was Ryan Fitzpatrick. Prior to Gailey's arrival, Fitzpatrick had never averaged more than 6.3 yards per attempt during a season. To put that number into perspective, Trent Edwards has a career average of 6.5 yards per attempt. Before you blame that difference on the weakness of Fitz's supporting casts, you might want to spend some time thinking about the Bills' flaws on the OL, at WR, and at offensive coordinator back when Edwards was the QB.

 

So prior to Gailey, your boy Fitz had never averaged more than 6.3 yards per attempt during a season. During Gailey's two seasons as head coach, Fitz had the two best years of his career. He averaged 6.8 yards per attempt in 2010, and 6.7 yards per attempt in 2011. Those aren't franchise QB numbers, but they're better by far than anything he's done before. Under Chan Gailey, Fitz went from being a career backup bouncing around the league to a guy who signed a ridiculously big, starter caliber contract. You should be kissing the ground Gailey walks on, not bashing him for having failed to do more with his Tyler Thigpen-led offense in Kansas City.

[Rico]

Sure, you can delude yourself into anything you want. The bottom line for playing pro football is wins, not stats. Like the 22 sacks for the Bills O line is the result of Fitz and his ability to get the ball out rather then the all pro players on that line the Bills have.

 

Chan Gailey is 10-22 as the Bills HC, and he was fired from his previous job as OC of the Chiefs in 08 where his team went 2-14.(26 in pts, 24 in yards) Until he wins 2x super bowls, I'd say he is inferior to Kevin Gilbride!

Yea okie,my bad, wrong use of stats. I meant SJ was targeted 135 times and caught 76 passes. SJ does drop his share of balls tho, and at the most inopportune times.

 

The point was he is the best WR on the team and nobody is really close to him, and the 3rd, 4th, 5th WR's on the team stink. what does it tell you when the backup QB is the 4th best WR.

Absolutely. Once again, stats are for losers.

[ganesh]

That is so sad, and it all makes me respect Tom Coughlin more. He is the first HC to stop Gilbride from relying extensively on the chuck and duck. I often wonder what he said to him.

 

He just went and had some guy take some pictures that absolutely keeps Gilbride in fits!!!!

[thewildrabbit]

I agree with some of what you've written, and disagree with some. I'll focus on the parts with which I disagree, because that's the disagreeable sort of person I am!

 

> I don't believe Fitz's accuracy is as bad as most fans make it out to be. One reason is, if it were that bad he wouldn't be an NFL starter!

 

One of the things which separates top-5 QBs from your average, everyday NFL starters is that the top-5 guys are much more accurate. If you compare the accuracy of an elite QB like Manning or Rodgers to the accuracy of an everyday starter like Cassel or Fitz, you'll see a big difference.

 

I see a big difference, but you need to consider the team Fitz plays on vs the teams those other QB's play on. Those teams are better in almost every aspect.The Bills were a bad team last year and have been bad over the past decade

 

> When you have a core of inferior WR's . . .

 

I agree that last season, the Bill were weak at #2 and #3 WR. But they're strong at #1 WR--look at the way Stevie Johnson repeatedly got open against Darrelle Revis! The Bills also had an excellent receiving threat out of the backfield in the form of Fred Jackson. Scott Chandler is a good, solid pass catching TE.

 

Jim Zorn to HoF WR Steve Largent, how many playoff games did they win? Most of the teams in the playoffs the last few years have more then one top WR. One good WR is so easily covered by todays CB's, they usually have their best CB on your best WR. The more top receivers you have the more difficult it is to cover them. Fred Jackson only played in 10 games last year and was ranked 106, 3rd best receiver on the Bills. Chandler is good no doubt, they just don't target him enough.

 

> Last season [stevie Johnson had] 76 catches vs 135 targets, thats 59 drops,

 

No it isn't, because not all 59 passes were catchable. I recall reading that Stevie Johnson had about 20 - 25 drops last season (don't remember the exact number). Which means that in the rest of those 59 cases, Fitz didn't throw a catchable pass.

 

Also, there's a difference between a pass that's just barely good enough to be considered "catchable," and a pass that's a ridiculously easy catch. Especially on shorter throws, the mere fact a pass is "catchable" doesn't necessarily mean the throw was particularly good.

 

Ok you could argue that Fitz didn't throw 59 catchable balls. OTOH lets look at the preseason game against the Steelers where SJ was the culprit of 6 of those "uncatchable balls" Chan Gailey even confirmed it was all SJ. On one play he just stopped running his route. Another play he ran the wrong route. Targeted 9 times with 3 catches, and all on Him. You know how frustrating that has to be for Fitz, and SJ is the best the Bills have. That Steeler game in 2010 that went into OT, the one where SJ drops the TD pass. SJ had 5 drops that day alone.

 

> [Rodgers] has a much better O line . . .

 

That's news to me. In 2010, Brandon Jackson averaged 3.7 yards per carry for the Packers. Fred Jackson averaged 4.2 yards per carry for the Bills in 2010. In 2011, James Starks averaged 4.3 yards a carry for the Packers, while Fred Jackson averaged a whopping 5.5 yards per carry for the Bills. I'll grant that, of the two Jacksons, Fred is better than Brandon. But I'm still not seeing much evidence that the Packers' OL was good at run blocking. Or at pass protection for that matter: Aaron Rodgers was hit and rushed all year during 2010, and their OL was dominated by the Steelers' DL in that Super Bowl. Aaron Rodgers threw the ball accurately anyway.

 

Stats and YPC are kinda meaningless when talking about how little the Packers run the ball with their average RB's vs Fred Jackson who makes the first tackler miss or breaks the first tackle. Freds YPC are mostly on him with the spread offense helping him in 2011. Rodgers also holds the ball floating around in the pocket while waiting for his receivers to break open. Looking over that Packer O line they draft their linemen because it looks like all have only played for GB. Trust me, the Packers don't have 2 scrubs they pulled off the street playing on their line.

 

I'm not saying that QB is the only thing wrong with the Bills' offense. On the other hand, it's not like you can rely on Fitz to throw the ball accurately. Not even when you give him time to throw. And not even when the the throw should be a nice, short, easy throw to make.

I think most fans just don't really grasp the difference between having only one good receiver in the top 20, and 2 or 3 in the top 30. The Patriots (ranked #2), WR Wes Welker 122 rec, 1569 yards- (Ranked #6) TE Rob Gronkowski 90 rec, 1327 yards (Ranked #31) TE Aaron Hernandez 79 rec, 910 yards- (Ranked # 51) Dion Branch 57 rec 702 yards. The Patriots 3rd best receiver had more receptions then (ranked at #19) Stevie Johnson , 76 rec, 1004 yards

 

If Fitz had a better supporting cast around him, line, and receivers, then I wouldn't have an argument.The fact that Gailey has tried 6 other QB's in his scheme and they all fell on their face so badly its not even close. This tells me its all Fitz, and not the system.

 

Fitz is a gunslinger, he is going to make some errant throws and try and force the ball sometimes. I've seen the alternative to taking risks in Trent Edwards... I'll take the gunslinger!

Edited August 30, 2012 by Fear the Beard

[LiterateStylish]

I think most fans just don't really grasp the difference between having only one good receiver in the top 20, and 2 or 3 in the top 30. The Patriots #2, WR Wes Welker 122 rec, 1569 yards- #6 TE Rob Gronkowski 90 rec, 1327 yards #31 TE Aaron Hernandez 79 rec, 910 yards- # 51 Dion Branch 57 rec 702 yards. The Patriots 3rd best receiver had more receptions then Stevie Johnson at #19, 76 rec, 1004 yards

 

If Fitz had a better supporting cast around him, line and receivers then I wouldn't have an argument.The fact that Gailey has tried 6 other QB's in his scheme and they all fell on their face so badly its not even close. This tells me its all Fitz, and not the system.

 

Fitz is a gunslinger, he is going to make some errant throws and try and force the ball sometimes. I've seen the alternative to taking risks in Trent Edwards... I'll take the gunslinger!

 

You are absolutely horrendous at stat analysis.

[Thurman#1]

this just in, the o wasnt the problem. the last place finish in d was ...

 

 

This correction just in.

 

In the first three games, the Bills offense alone - ignoring STs and defensive scoring - managed 35.3 points per game. For the rest of the year, 17.0 PPG. The offense was just as much of a problem as the D once teams figured out Gailey's scheme.

 

The question is whether Gailey has enough faith in the OL with a healthy Wood and a new LT to let Fitz stand back there for more than two seconds. If he does, we'll see some longer posts, crossing patterns, double moves, stop and gos, the stuff that takes time to develop, time that we didn't have last year.

[thewildrabbit]

> Like the 22 sacks for the Bills O line is the result of Fitz and his ability to get the ball out rather then the all pro players on that line the Bills have.

 

Agreed. Fitz gets rid of the ball quickly, and makes the OL look better than it really is.

 

> Chan Gailey is 10-22 as the Bills HC, and he was fired from his previous job as OC of the Chiefs in 08 where his team went 2-14 (26 in pts, 24 in yards)

 

Gailey served as the Chiefs' offensive coordinator for just one year: 2008. You pointed out the Chiefs' offensive stats weren't very good in 2008, and that's true. But do you know who his starting quarterback was that year? . . .

 

. . .

 

 

Wait for it . . .

 

Tyler Thigpen!

 

I'll pause for a minute to let that fact sink in. It takes a bit for the Tylerness of it and the Thigpenness of it to really permeate the brain.

 

Put yourself in Gailey's position. You wake up one morning, and realize that Tyler Thigpen is now the best non-injured QB on your roster. So you get creative, and somehow figure out a way to build an offense around Thigpen's, um, strengths. This offense actually manages to do something. It didn't set the world on fire, but it's not exactly as though Thigpen is the second coming of Joe Montana. Or even the second coming of Alex van Pelt.

 

Then Gailey came to Buffalo, where it turned out his best QB was Ryan Fitzpatrick. Prior to Gailey's arrival, Fitzpatrick had never averaged more than 6.3 yards per attempt during a season. To put that number into perspective, Trent Edwards has a career average of 6.5 yards per attempt. Before you blame that difference on the weakness of Fitz's supporting casts, you might want to spend some time thinking about the Bills' flaws on the OL, at WR, and at offensive coordinator back when Edwards was the QB.

 

So prior to Gailey, your boy Fitz had never averaged more than 6.3 yards per attempt during a season. During Gailey's two seasons as head coach, Fitz had the two best years of his career. He averaged 6.8 yards per attempt in 2010, and 6.7 yards per attempt in 2011. Those aren't franchise QB numbers, but they're better by far than anything he's done before. Under Chan Gailey, Fitz went from being a career backup bouncing around the league to a guy who signed a ridiculously big, starter caliber contract. You should be kissing the ground Gailey walks on, not bashing him for having failed to do more with his Tyler Thigpen-led offense in Kansas City.

Cut the drama, I posted in this thread that I knew Tyler Thigpen was the QB that year. I've been saying he played most of a season under Gailey and yet he still sucks running the current Bills offense, why is that?

 

Thigpen put up some good garbage numbers in KC because he was always playing from behind in the score, always throwing trying to play catch up, sound familiar?

 

In case you have forgotten Chan Gailey picked Trent Edwards over Fitz to start that 2010 season, even tho Perry Fewell had Benched Edwards and started Fitz the previous year. A throughly boneheaded move wasting an entire training camp and 4 pre-season games on Edwards only to cut him after 2 games All those snaps the starter gets vs the limited snaps the back up gets is a big reason for the 2010, 0-8 start. Fitz was no where near ready to start that year.

 

In case you missed it I've been stating that Gailey is the problem and not the QB. The Bills need better receivers and better linemen. Plus, Gailey needs to stop hanging Fitz out to dry by constantly forcing him to throw when the team gets behind in the score like he did the 2nd half of last year. Gailey would often stop running the ball and go into a constant passing mode, even tho the running game was working well. This had the QB throwing into the teeth of the defense, not a good idea with only one decent WR and a banged up O line.

 

Why on earth would I kiss the ground Gailey walks on? So,we all know Gailey can get a QB to light it up, that doesn't always equate to wins. In fact all it equates to in Buffalo so far in a 10-22 record.

 

This correction just in.

 

In the first three games, the Bills offense alone - ignoring STs and defensive scoring - managed 35.3 points per game. For the rest of the year, 17.0 PPG. The offense was just as much of a problem as the D once teams figured out Gailey's scheme.

 

The question is whether Gailey has enough faith in the OL with a healthy Wood and a new LT to let Fitz stand back there for more than two seconds. If he does, we'll see some longer posts, crossing patterns, double moves, stop and gos, the stuff that takes time to develop, time that we didn't have last year.

Thank you!

 

Finally, someone else who understands what happened last year.

You are absolutely horrendous at stat analysis.

How so? Edited August 30, 2012 by Fear the Beard

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I like your username. Most evocative......

 

I would be watching the wavier wire very closely. I would also look to trade for someone now. Yes, a 2nd backup QB. I would look for someone younger with starter potential. The next Matt Flynn type. I honestly would look at Washington and see if they would take a 2nd round pick for Cousins at this point. Scrap all that Brad Smith BS and let Spiller run the Wild Cat as Brad Smith is not going to throw anyway out of it so there is no way a team is going to be "tricked".

 

....of the things I want to snort out of my nose and ignore. Seriously? This is your idea of how to be "better"?

 

Does Fitz's "windup" when he throws remind anyone else of Tebow's?".....

 

No

 

oh wait, Tebow was "the answer" right?

 

Depends...what was the question? was it "draftable quarterbacks Bills fans were screaming for us to pick at some point"? or "what does Tebow do?"

[Thurman#1]

I think most fans just don't really grasp the difference between having only one good receiver in the top 20, and 2 or 3 in the top 30. The Patriots #2, WR Wes Welker 122 rec, 1569 yards- #6 TE Rob Gronkowski 90 rec, 1327 yards #31 TE Aaron Hernandez 79 rec, 910 yards- # 51 Dion Branch 57 rec 702 yards. The Patriots 3rd best receiver had more receptions then Stevie Johnson at #19, 76 rec, 1004 yards

 

If Fitz had a better supporting cast around him, line and receivers then I wouldn't have an argument.The fact that Gailey has tried 6 other QB's in his scheme and they all fell on their face so badly its not even close. This tells me its all Fitz, and not the system.

 

Fitz is a gunslinger, he is going to make some errant throws and try and force the ball sometimes. I've seen the alternative to taking risks in Trent Edwards... I'll take the gunslinger!

 

Teams that had more than one receiver in the top 20 in receptions:

 

New England*, 3 (1 WR and 2 TEs)

Detroit, 2 (1 WR and 1 TE)

Atlanta, 2 (1 WR and 1 TE)

New Orleans, 3 (1 WR, 1 TE and 1 RB)

NYGiants, 2 (2 WRs)

 

That's all.

 

In yards:

 

New England, 2 (1 WR and 1 TE)

NYGiants, 2 (2 WRs)

New Orleans, 2 (1 TE and 1 WR)

Pittsburgh, 2 (2 WRs)

 

That's it.

 

It's not like every other team has all these guys in the top 20. Is it teams with good QBs? Some, but not all. Where's Green Bay? I hear their QB is OK. Is Stafford really all that good at this point in his career, or does he have really terrific receivers? Where's Rivers?

 

Let's try another year. Go back 5 years to 2006. In receptions, teams with multiple guys in the top 20 are:

 

Detroit, 2 (Furrey and Roy Williams). The QB was Kitna.

Indy, 2 (2 WRs)

St. Louis, 3 (Holt, Steven Jackson and Bruce). The QB was Bulger.

NYJets, 2 (Coles and Cotchery). The QB was Pennington on his last legs there.

Cincy, 2 (Housh and pre-Ocho). The QB was Palmer.

 

Outside Peyton, that's not an awe-inspiring group.

 

In yards in 2006:

 

Indy, 2 (2 WRs)

Detroit 2 (same 2)

Dallas, 2 (T.O. and Terry Glenn). QB was Romo in his first year as a starter.

St. Louis, 2 (Holt and Bruce)

Cincy, 2 (same two)

 

No Brees. No Brady. Favre sucked that year, so it makes sense he's not there.

 

Looks like it's not always the top QBs. Sometimes it's teams with good WRs and good systems.

[KOKBILLS]

I think most fans just don't really grasp the difference between having only one good receiver in the top 20, and 2 or 3 in the top 30. The Patriots #2, WR Wes Welker 122 rec, 1569 yards- #6 TE Rob Gronkowski 90 rec, 1327 yards #31 TE Aaron Hernandez 79 rec, 910 yards- # 51 Dion Branch 57 rec 702 yards. The Patriots 3rd best receiver had more receptions then Stevie Johnson at #19, 76 rec, 1004 yards

 

Seriously? You do know who is throwing the Ball to those Pats receivers do you not? What do you think David Nelson's stats would be if Brady was on the other end?

[Bronc24]

I get the love for Fitz. Here's an underdog 7th rounder out of the football factory of Harvard who bounced around the league a few years before landing on the QB needy Bills. He follows former whipping boy Trent Edwards, which was definitely not a tough act to follow. He starts 2011 on absolute fire, even recording a win against the Patriots*. The Patriots*! But alas, the wheels fall off the bus and Fitz is dismal the last two thirds of the season.

 

This can't be! Fitz is a lunch bucket guy! He's one of us! It was the ribs, it was Gailey, it was a lack of WR, it was Freddy going down....every excuse possible.

 

Outside a group of delusional Bills fans, there is not a fan in this league who wished they had Fitz as their QB. This is fact. There are reasons this is fact. Fitz has a horrible record as a starter. Fitz cannot consistently throw deep due to arm limitations, so teams now hammer the short pass, causing him to often be ineffective. Fitz has a mediocre skill-set and will never be in a playoff game, let alone win one. The sooner we get our Andrew Luck or Russel Wilson, the better we will be as a franchise. Period.

[Orton's Arm]

Cut the drama, I posted in this thread that I knew Tyler Thigpen was the QB that year. I've been saying he played most of a season under Gailey and yet he still sucks running the current Bills offense, why is that?

 

Thigpen put up some good garbage numbers in KC because he was always playing from behind in the score, always throwing trying to play catch up, sound familiar?

 

In case you have forgotten Chan Gailey picked Trent Edwards over Fitz to start that 2010 season, even tho Perry Fewell had Benched Edwards and started Fitz the previous year. A throughly boneheaded move wasting an entire training camp and 4 pre-season games on Edwards only to cut him after 2 games All those snaps the starter gets vs the limited snaps the back up gets is a big reason for the 2010, 0-8 start. Fitz was no where near ready to start that year.

 

In case you missed it I've been stating that Gailey is the problem and not the QB. The Bills need better receivers and better linemen. Plus, Gailey needs to stop hanging Fitz out to dry by constantly forcing him to throw when the team gets behind in the score like he did the 2nd half of last year. Gailey would often stop running the ball and go into a constant passing mode, even tho the running game was working well. This had the QB throwing into the teeth of the defense, not a good idea with only one decent WR and a banged up O line.

 

Why on earth would I kiss the ground Gailey walks on? So,we all know Gailey can get a QB to light it up, that doesn't always equate to wins. In fact all it equates to in Buffalo so far in a 10-22 record.

 

Thank you!

 

Finally, someone else who understands what happened last year.

How so?

> In case you have forgotten Chan Gailey picked Trent Edwards over Fitz to start that 2010 season . . .

 

Gailey made a mistake, he corrected it, and he moved on. It took him two regular season games to see his error. Compare that to Dick Jauron, who kept players like Fred Jackson and Stevie Johnson on the bench for years.

 

> Plus, Gailey needs to stop hanging Fitz out to dry by constantly forcing him to throw

> when the team gets behind in the score like he did the 2nd half of last year.

 

Agreed. If Fred Jackson is getting 5 - 6 yards a carry, why not run him more? Either the defense adjusts, in which case you've just made Fitz's life easier. Or it doesn't adjust, in which case you can keep taking the 5 - 6 yard runs.

 

> Why on earth would I kiss the ground Gailey walks on?

 

Before Gailey, Fitz was nothing. In his best pre-Gailey season, he averaged 6.3 yards per attempt. With numbers like that, a quarterback should consider himself lucky to be on a roster on opening day. Trent Edwards and JP Losman both have career averages higher than that. Losman is out of the league, and Trent Edwards is hanging on by the skin of his teeth.

 

Under Gailey, Fitz has become a 6.7 - 6.8 yards per attempt kind of guy. A QB needs to have a career average of around 7.2 - 7.4 yards per attempt for me to consider him franchise, and Fitz is a long way from that. But he's also a long way away from his days as a journeyman backup.

 

Gailey designed an offense to take advantage of Fitz's strengths; such as making good pre-snap reads, and fast, sound post-snap decisions. The offense doesn't require Fitz to make many difficult throws, because those aren't exactly his forte. Sure, the offensive scheme could be even better if Gailey ran the ball more often. But as it is, it's a very good fit for Fitz--a much better fit than any offense he's ever run before.

 

> I think most fans just don't really grasp the difference between having only one good receiver in the top 20, and 2 or 3 in the top 30.

 

Thurman#1 pretty much hit this one out of the park, so there's not much I can add to what he's written. But I would like to point out that there are 32 teams in the NFL, so a typical team will have one WR in the top 30. For every team that has more than one in the top 30, there's another which doesn't have any in the top 30. Buffalo has one WR in the top 20, which is about average.

 

> If Fitz had a better supporting cast around him, line, and receivers, then I wouldn't have an argument.

 

Buffalo is not the only team with a flawed WR corps, or a flawed OL. I agree that this past season, the Patriots had a very good supporting cast around Brady. A significantly better supporting cast than the one the Bills put around Fitz. That supporting cast is a big reason why Tom Brady had 8.6 yards per attempt this past season. I'm not asking for 8.6 yards per attempt from Fitz--not unless his supporting cast gets a whole lot better than it is today! But if you were to give the Bills' current supporting cast to a franchise QB, he'd do a lot better than Fitz's 6.7 - 6.8 yards per attempt.

 

This past season, Fitz was ranked 22nd in yards per attempt. Before you say, "Fitz's supporting cast was flawed," let me point out plenty of other teams had flawed supporting casts too. How come so many of those other teams' QBs were able to attain higher yards per attempt stats than Fitz?

 

> That Steeler game in 2010 that went into OT, the one where SJ drops the TD pass.

 

IIRC, that was the game in which Fitz threw three would-be TD passes Johnson's way. One was a drop, like you said. The other two were errant throws--errant enough to be completely uncatchable. Those throws weren't Johnson's fault, or the OL's fault, or Chan Gailey's fault.

[thewildrabbit]

What you don't get, and probably never will considering your above argument. Chan Gailey didn't design anything, he was just darn lucky that Fitz was there after he dumped Edwards. If not for Fitz the Bills probably don't win a game in 2010,and perhaps only win one or two in 2011.

 

You clearly don't get that no other QB has been able to do what Fitz can do, Gailey is 1 for 7 in QB's because, ITS ALL FITZ!!!

 

You still haven't explained why Tyler Thigpen has looked so horrible running Chan Gailey's offense when he had almost a full season under Gailey in 08 to learn it.

 

 

 

PS. Who really shivs a git that the QB can light it up in a losing effort, the only numbers that count are the ones in the win loss column, its all about wins! 10-22 stinks!

[8-8 Forever?]

most qbs prefer short slants, outs, hitches..lol....

 

most passing plays are under 15 yds... lol

 

 

there is nothing to catch on to...

 

johnson and jones were getting deep before they got hurt along with wood, jackson and fitz...

 

now we have graham

Agreed. Its all about injuries in the NFL. If you avoid them, you have the ability to adjust , tweak and change your plans/approaches during the season. If you have starters going down week after week, you are playing catchup with the backups all season. And now that training camp is half of what it was before the new CBA, this is even worse. Teams that have injury problems get blasted in the NFL. The backups are a huge dropoff from the starters and this year will be worse. Just ask the Steelers, Giants, Jags, etc. When their starters went down last year, they were very beatable.

[K-9]

... Fitz cannot consistently throw deep due to arm limitations, so teams now hammer the short pass, causing him to often be ineffective. Fitz has a mediocre skill-set and will never be in a playoff game, let alone win one. The sooner we get our Andrew Luck or Russel Wilson, the better we will be as a franchise. Period.

 

I keep hearing this. Would it be possible to quantify?

 

What are those arm limitations?

 

What is throwing deep?

 

What would be a consistent measure for making this deep throw?

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Bronc24]

 

 

I keep hearing this. Would it be possible to quantify?

 

What are those arm limitations?

 

What is throwing deep?

 

What would be a consistent measure for making this deep throw?

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

I'm sure someone somewhere can quantify it, but I just keep going back to what I see. Case in point, the Giants game last year. Two horribly under thrown balls to a wide open Stevie that were picked off. Winning QB's make that throw consistently.