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Did Lombardi nail it Re: Fitz and offence


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He said he was "an outstanding route runner". I don't think that has ever been true of Stevie - and he should know the playbook by now. I certainly don't want to negate his "lackluster" career either just criticize it.

A 7th round draft pick posts consecutive 1,000 yard seasons and emerges to be the best WR on the team and you describe that as a lackluster career?

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We had games last year with 1 completion over 10 yards downfield (Philly?). Like I said- less horizontal and more vertical spacing will be the test. Even in the 10-20 range will be very important

 

Pretty much this.... deep doesn't necessarily mean 40 yards down field, it just means making the defense respect the 2nd and 3rd levels

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Year: QBs picked before Bills Pick : QBs picked after Bills pick (in 1st Round)

2012: Luck, Griffin Tannehill | Weeden

2011: Newton | Locker, Gabbert, Ponder

2010: Bradford, | Tebow

2009: Stafford, Sanchez | Freeman

2008: Ryan | Flacco

 

2007: Russell | Brady Quinn

2006: Young | Leinart, Cutler

2005: Smith | Rodgers, Campbell

2004: Manning, Rivers, Rothelisberger, | Losman

 

I will stop here... The bottom line is the QBs that have been picked after the Bills pick in the 1st round have all been crap except for Flacco, Rodgers and Cutler...We definitely should have picked up Cutler when we had the chance, but that is the year Marv and Dick blew it up.. Of course, the situation was also that the Bills still hadn't given Losman a decent chance to start. The same with Rodgers. Rest of those years, the QBs that are franchise QBs in Manning, Rivers, Rothelisberger, Ryan, Stafford and Newton were all long gone. Remember these players were also drafted in an era where besides doling out many draft picks, the team also had to sign them to 30-50M guaranteed contracts....The Bills were in no position to do that.

 

The closest miss was not getting Rothelisberger....We were hoodwinked by the Steelers by fate...

Why were the Bills in no position to do that with 30-50 million?

 

Did every regime need to have a QB fall to them like it does with Buddy Nix? Look at what the Redskins gave up for RG3.

 

The year the Bills moved up to take JP Losman Tom Donahoe had wanted Big Ben but the Steelers drafted him, Jeez, good move for them huh! If Donahoe knew he really wanted Big Ben he should have moved up to get him. Traded with either the Redskins or Browns. That same year Matt Schaub was taken in the 3rd round by the Falcons tho.

 

Yeah, Jay Cutler over Donte Whitner would have been the smart move, but then your talking Dick Jauron

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The Bills problems on offense are serious and deep seated, but they don't start at the QB position! They start with a head coach determined to have QB's molded to fit his style of high powered offensive scheme. Instead of building a scheme most any QB would be compatible in, a dominate run first offense like the one Martyball runs. So far only Fitz with his super gray cells have managed to assimilate Gaileys offense, 1 out of 6 so far.

 

Instead of building an offense that supports and protects the QB, Gailey insists on mostly running a one back spread offense with 4-5 WR sets, with one top 20 WR in Stevie Johnson ranked #19, Donald Jones ranked #61 and the 3rd best WR ranked #167- Naaman Roosevelt #4 ranked 171- Derek Hagan, #5 ranked 177 Brad Smith. Which shows that a lot of those 4-5 WR sets had only one decent WR running routes and catching passes all last year. Shoot, I highly doubt Brady or Brees would have done as well as Fitz has done these last two years, with as little as he has had around him.

 

If Gailey wants to run a high powered offense like the great teams have he needs at least one other top WR. Most of the top teams have 2 or more outstanding WR's. Stating that, the WR position should have been the highest priority in the draft. But Buddy Nix drafts on how the draft falls to him. So the Bills drafted yet another CB.

 

While I agree that Fitz is not an elite QB, what he is tho... is a gunslinger, try and make a play, tough as nails Journeyman QB who can get the job done if he isn't running for his life or getting hit every play. The sad thing is Fitz will get all the blame when this offense fails to win games. I'm sure the offense / QB will put up some good numbers in many losing contests this year, even with a better defense.

 

From what I've seen Chan Gailey knows how to get a QB to light it up. He did it in KC back in 08 with Thigpen running his pistol offense, 14 games, 2600 yards 18 TD's / 12 INT's and they went 2-14. I would hate to think what record the Bills would have had in 2010- 2011 if not for Fitz being able to get the ball out to the open receiver in under 3 seconds.

 

Still awaiting the proverbial baby...to see the light of day.

 

 

PS. It is rather perplexing as to why the Bills haven't drafted a QB in the first round since Jim Kelly (besides JP) considering they have been drafting one of the first 15 players for the last decade.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has the ability to make good pre-snap reads, to get the ball out quickly, and to choose the correct target. Unfortunately, his throwing accuracy leaves a lot to be desired.

 

Maybe you'll respond by pointing out that his pass protection hasn't always been world class, and that even a normally very accurate QB can make the occasional bad throw if he's hurried. The problem with that is that Fitzpatrick is not a "normally very accurate QB"!

 

I agree the Bills need more talent in their receiving corps. Just a few days ago, I mentioned how much better the offense would be had the Bills drafted A.J. Green instead of Marcel Dareus. Whether the improvement in offense would be enough to offset the worsening of the defense is another question.

 

If Fitz was making consistently accurate throws, and if the receivers were dropping those throws, then it's strictly a WR problem. But if the throws are often inaccurate--which they are--then you have a QB + WR problem. Last year the Bills also had an OL problem; especially in the second half of the season.

 

Let me define more clearly what I mean by "QB problem." Fitz is a better starter than many other QBs in the league. He does a lot of things well. But he does not play at or near the level of Manning (either of them), because he doesn't have the accuracy. To be considered a franchise QB, you have to make a near-perfect throw almost every time. Enough plays go wrong already due to pass protection errors, WR errors, penalties, etc. A team can't afford to have large numbers of additional offensive plays go wrong due to bad throws. Not when you're facing a team which has a QB like Aaron Rodgers--a QB who almost never makes a mistake. In Green Bay's recent Super Bowl win, I recall him having made one bad throw all game. One. Everything else he did was just about perfect. It's an unforgiving standard, but that's where the Bills' QB needs to be if we're going to beat elite teams in the postseason. As much as there is to like about Fitz, both as a person and as a player, he isn't at or near that standard.

 

The best possible thing the Bills could do in the 2013 offseason would be to draft a franchise QB. Trade away two or three years' of drafts if you have to, but draft a franchise QB! :angry:

 

As Ganesh has pointed out in his well-researched post, most of the good first round QBs have been off the board by the time the Bills have picked. Considering that the Bills have gone over a decade with no playoffs, you'd think they would have had plenty of chances to draft franchise QBs by staying put in the first round. But no. If they're going to get a franchise QB any time soon, odds are they're going to have to trade up. Trading up will not be cheap.

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Ryan Fitzpatrick has the ability to make good pre-snap reads, to get the ball out quickly, and to choose the correct target. Unfortunately, his throwing accuracy leaves a lot to be desired.

 

Maybe you'll respond by pointing out that his pass protection hasn't always been world class, and that even a normally very accurate QB can make the occasional bad throw if he's hurried. The problem with that is that Fitzpatrick is not a "normally very accurate QB"!

 

I agree the Bills need more talent in their receiving corps. Just a few days ago, I mentioned how much better the offense would be had the Bills drafted A.J. Green instead of Marcel Dareus. Whether the improvement in offense would be enough to offset the worsening of the defense is another question.

 

If Fitz was making consistently accurate throws, and if the receivers were dropping those throws, then it's strictly a WR problem. But if the throws are often inaccurate--which they are--then you have a QB + WR problem. Last year the Bills also had an OL problem; especially in the second half of the season.

 

Let me define more clearly what I mean by "QB problem." Fitz is a better starter than many other QBs in the league. He does a lot of things well. But he does not play at or near the level of Manning (either of them), because he doesn't have the accuracy. To be considered a franchise QB, you have to make a near-perfect throw almost every time. Enough plays go wrong already due to pass protection errors, WR errors, penalties, etc. A team can't afford to have large numbers of additional offensive plays go wrong due to bad throws. Not when you're facing a team which has a QB like Aaron Rodgers--a QB who almost never makes a mistake. In Green Bay's recent Super Bowl win, I recall him having made one bad throw all game. One. Everything else he did was just about perfect. It's an unforgiving standard, but that's where the Bills' QB needs to be if we're going to beat elite teams in the postseason. As much as there is to like about Fitz, both as a person and as a player, he isn't at or near that standard.

 

The best possible thing the Bills could do in the 2013 offseason would be to draft a franchise QB. Trade away two or three years' of drafts if you have to, but draft a franchise QB! :angry:

 

As Ganesh has pointed out in his well-researched post, most of the good first round QBs have been off the board by the time the Bills have picked. Considering that the Bills have gone over a decade with no playoffs, you'd think they would have had plenty of chances to draft franchise QBs by staying put in the first round. But no. If they're going to get a franchise QB any time soon, odds are they're going to have to trade up. Trading up will not be cheap.

 

Excellent Post! You hit the nail right on the head concerning Fitz...

 

And agreed...If The Bills want a Franchise-type QB they are going to have to be aggressive more than likely...And that does not come without risk...But it would seem 2013 would be the time for it...The core of the Defense is in place for years to come, And the Offensive Line is certainly not terrible...Sure The Bills could use another decent WR...But an accurate,Franchise-type QB will make any WR look better...Franchise QB's don't tend to fall into The Bills lap unlike The Steelers, Colts, Panthers, and Packers of the world...So Buddy will have to be prepared to make a big move...We'll see I guess... B-)

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The biggest problem is the spread offense itself. When we go 5-wide as often as we do, it becomes very predictable as to what we're doing. The defense knows if they bring 6 rushers, thats one more than we can block wit 5 offensive lineman. Hence, the quick pass is our only option, and more often than not there are open receives running slants and finding holes in the defense. This worked extremely well for the first 7 games of the season, but eventually defenses caught up.

 

If we're going to be succesful, we need to become more of a running team with less spread formations. Chan needs to become less stuborn with all this 5-wide nonesense, because it is way to predictable for defenses.

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The biggest problem is the spread offense itself. When we go 5-wide as often as we do, it becomes very predictable as to what we're doing. The defense knows if they bring 6 rushers, thats one more than we can block wit 5 offensive lineman. Hence, the quick pass is our only option, and more often than not there are open receives running slants and finding holes in the defense. This worked extremely well for the first 7 games of the season, but eventually defenses caught up.

 

If we're going to be succesful, we need to become more of a running team with less spread formations. Chan needs to become less stuborn with all this 5-wide nonesense, because it is way to predictable for defenses.

 

I'd just prefer to run the ball more out of those spread formations. Our OLinemen love it and both Freddy and CJ have advantages in the space created. And we were pretty damn good at it. All depends on being and staying in manageable down/distance situations and not being down on the scoreboard by too much early in games.

 

GO BILLS!!!

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The biggest problem is the spread offense itself. When we go 5-wide as often as we do, it becomes very predictable as to what we're doing. The defense knows if they bring 6 rushers, thats one more than we can block wit 5 offensive lineman. Hence, the quick pass is our only option, and more often than not there are open receives running slants and finding holes in the defense. This worked extremely well for the first 7 games of the season, but eventually defenses caught up.

 

If we're going to be succesful, we need to become more of a running team with less spread formations. Chan needs to become less stuborn with all this 5-wide nonesense, because it is way to predictable for defenses.

 

 

I agree we need to be a more physical running Team...And no question the 5 receiver sets may be used a bit too often by Chan...Still...It does not change that, for the most part, this has become a passing league...You have to have balance of short, intermediate, and long pass plays with screens and everything else mixed in...And Chan is now charged with finding that balance...No one said it would be easy right? B-)

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Ryan Fitzpatrick has the ability to make good pre-snap reads, to get the ball out quickly, and to choose the correct target. Unfortunately, his throwing accuracy leaves a lot to be desired.

 

Maybe you'll respond by pointing out that his pass protection hasn't always been world class, and that even a normally very accurate QB can make the occasional bad throw if he's hurried. The problem with that is that Fitzpatrick is not a "normally very accurate QB"!

 

I agree the Bills need more talent in their receiving corps. Just a few days ago, I mentioned how much better the offense would be had the Bills drafted A.J. Green instead of Marcel Dareus. Whether the improvement in offense would be enough to offset the worsening of the defense is another question.

 

If Fitz was making consistently accurate throws, and if the receivers were dropping those throws, then it's strictly a WR problem. But if the throws are often inaccurate--which they are--then you have a QB + WR problem. Last year the Bills also had an OL problem; especially in the second half of the season.

 

Let me define more clearly what I mean by "QB problem." Fitz is a better starter than many other QBs in the league. He does a lot of things well. But he does not play at or near the level of Manning (either of them), because he doesn't have the accuracy. To be considered a franchise QB, you have to make a near-perfect throw almost every time. Enough plays go wrong already due to pass protection errors, WR errors, penalties, etc. A team can't afford to have large numbers of additional offensive plays go wrong due to bad throws. Not when you're facing a team which has a QB like Aaron Rodgers--a QB who almost never makes a mistake. In Green Bay's recent Super Bowl win, I recall him having made one bad throw all game. One. Everything else he did was just about perfect. It's an unforgiving standard, but that's where the Bills' QB needs to be if we're going to beat elite teams in the postseason. As much as there is to like about Fitz, both as a person and as a player, he isn't at or near that standard.

 

The best possible thing the Bills could do in the 2013 offseason would be to draft a franchise QB. Trade away two or three years' of drafts if you have to, but draft a franchise QB! :angry:

 

As Ganesh has pointed out in his well-researched post, most of the good first round QBs have been off the board by the time the Bills have picked. Considering that the Bills have gone over a decade with no playoffs, you'd think they would have had plenty of chances to draft franchise QBs by staying put in the first round. But no. If they're going to get a franchise QB any time soon, odds are they're going to have to trade up. Trading up will not be cheap.

I don't believe Fitz's accuracy is as bad as most fans make it out to be. One reason is, if it were that bad he wouldn't be an NFL starter! Plus, the Bills wouldn't have paid him what they paid him last year, so the FO thinks differently.

 

Watching the games Fitz doesn't take very many sacks because the ball is out in under 3 seconds, but he still gets hit almost every passing play. Most of the issues I see with Fitz has have to do with that O line barely giving him the time to get the ball out, and many times he is not in the proper position when he releases because of the rush causing him to hurry throws. Most fans don't believe me when I say that O line is still very questionable on the right side because the line only gave up 22 sacks last year, but it is. Now the Bills have a rookie at LT, players returning from injuries at center and RT.

 

When you have a core of inferior WR's you are burdened with hoping that they run the correct route, can get uncovered, can find the holes in the defensive scheme, can be in the proper position to catch the ball, and can actually catch the ball if its thrown to them. Those 170+ ranked WR's don't instill much confidence in the QB throwing to them. Its a crap shoot at best. OTOH, Stevie Johnson is where he is supposed to be when the call comes out, he finds the holes in the defense and makes the catch most of the time. Last season 76 catches vs 135 targets, thats 59 drops, and he is the best WR on the team!

 

Have you watched Tom Brady this pre season at all? Even with the plethora of excellent WRers and TE's Brady hasn't had his usual 5-7 seconds time in the pocket and he has only 1 TD, 1 INT, given up 3 sacks, and has a QB rating of 80.6.and he is ranked around 60th in yards. Ryan Fitzpatrick says, welcome to my world Tom. I don't buy for a second that Tom Brady or Drew Brees could make this corps of WR's better.

 

When you mention other QB's like Aaron Rodgers and the success he has with the packers, understand its because he is playing in a modern version of the WCO scheme under the direction of HC Mike McCarthy. He has a fleet of top WR's and a great TE in Finley. He has a much better O line, and Rodgers, like Big Ben, can float around in the pocket waiting for the receiver to break open before he throws. But yea, When Rodgers is hot he has uncanny accuracy with almost every throw. Its kinda why he has a SB ring. Still, the Packer offensive scheme is better, the QB surrounding cast is better, the HC is better.

 

I still happen to think that the Buffalo Bills supporting cast isn't even close to being good enough to support a rookie QB.

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Lombardi will change his tune when we blow out the Jets in Jersey.

 

No way the Bills showed their offence to the Steelers, they went vanilla after the touchdown drive.

 

I cant wait for Sept 9th, its gonna be a damn good day.

I can see where people might feel that the Bills defense will give Sanchize a good spanking on 9/9, but what in the world makes you think the Bills offense is going to blow out the Jets defense?? Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see it. But is it just the excitement of the upcoming season talking or what? I cannot come up with anything beyond the return of FredEx that makes me think the Bills offense is going to be a point scoring machine, particularly against what should be at the very least a competent defense.

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I know you want to, but you can't compare the team that won the SB to a 6-10 team.

 

Of course you can. Statistically, it is very relevant.

 

Like I pointed out, the Giants have a better receiver corps! They also have a better QB, better O line (with pro bowlers on it) better scheme, better play caller, better HC, better defense, better everything.

 

And yet they only scored 22 more points. So what is your point? That a better QB, better O-line, better defense and so forth doesn't equal more points?

 

Also, it's ridiculous to say that the Giants have a better play caller.

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Excellent Post! You hit the nail right on the head concerning Fitz...

 

And agreed...If The Bills want a Franchise-type QB they are going to have to be aggressive more than likely...And that does not come without risk...But it would seem 2013 would be the time for it...The core of the Defense is in place for years to come, And the Offensive Line is certainly not terrible...Sure The Bills could use another decent WR...But an accurate,Franchise-type QB will make any WR look better...Franchise QB's don't tend to fall into The Bills lap unlike The Steelers, Colts, Panthers, and Packers of the world...So Buddy will have to be prepared to make a big move...We'll see I guess... B-)

 

You have to wonder what is too much to pay to have a chance to draft a top QB. Washington paid a steep price, but now have someone they view as the franchise guy. It seems like every rebuilding franchise tries to locate their guy at the outset. We'll see shortly if Buffalo made the right move and eschewed all options in the last 3 drafts.

 

An outstanding QB is a force multiplier. I just wouldn't approach draft day hoping one falls, because that's just not happening in the modern era and there's always someone willing to move up to get one.

 

 

 

 

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I don't believe Fitz's accuracy is as bad as most fans make it out to be. One reason is, if it were that bad he wouldn't be an NFL starter! Plus, the Bills wouldn't have paid him what they paid him last year, so the FO thinks differently.

 

Watching the games Fitz doesn't take very many sacks because the ball is out in under 3 seconds, but he still gets hit almost every passing play. Most of the issues I see with Fitz has have to do with that O line barely giving him the time to get the ball out, and many times he is not in the proper position when he releases because of the rush causing him to hurry throws. Most fans don't believe me when I say that O line is still very questionable on the right side because the line only gave up 22 sacks last year, but it is. Now the Bills have a rookie at LT, players returning from injuries at center and RT.

 

When you have a core of inferior WR's you are burdened with hoping that they run the correct route, can get uncovered, can find the holes in the defensive scheme, can be in the proper position to catch the ball, and can actually catch the ball if its thrown to them. Those 170+ ranked WR's don't instill much confidence in the QB throwing to them. Its a crap shoot at best. OTOH, Stevie Johnson is where he is supposed to be when the call comes out, he finds the holes in the defense and makes the catch most of the time. Last season 76 catches vs 135 targets, thats 59 drops, and he is the best WR on the team!

 

Have you watched Tom Brady this pre season at all? Even with the plethora of excellent WRers and TE's Brady hasn't had his usual 5-7 seconds time in the pocket and he has only 1 TD, 1 INT, given up 3 sacks, and has a QB rating of 80.6.and he is ranked around 60th in yards. Ryan Fitzpatrick says, welcome to my world Tom. I don't buy for a second that Tom Brady or Drew Brees could make this corps of WR's better.

 

When you mention other QB's like Aaron Rodgers and the success he has with the packers, understand its because he is playing in a modern version of the WCO scheme under the direction of HC Mike McCarthy. He has a fleet of top WR's and a great TE in Finley. He has a much better O line, and Rodgers, like Big Ben, can float around in the pocket waiting for the receiver to break open before he throws. But yea, When Rodgers is hot he has uncanny accuracy with almost every throw. Its kinda why he has a SB ring. Still, the Packer offensive scheme is better, the QB surrounding cast is better, the HC is better.

 

I still happen to think that the Buffalo Bills supporting cast isn't even close to being good enough to support a rookie QB.

I agree with some of what you've written, and disagree with some. I'll focus on the parts with which I disagree, because that's the disagreeable sort of person I am! :)

 

> I don't believe Fitz's accuracy is as bad as most fans make it out to be. One reason is, if it were that bad he wouldn't be an NFL starter!

 

One of the things which separates top-5 QBs from your average, everyday NFL starters is that the top-5 guys are much more accurate. If you compare the accuracy of an elite QB like Manning or Rodgers to the accuracy of an everyday starter like Cassel or Fitz, you'll see a big difference.

 

> When you have a core of inferior WR's . . .

 

I agree that last season, the Bill were weak at #2 and #3 WR. But they're strong at #1 WR--look at the way Stevie Johnson repeatedly got open against Darrelle Revis! The Bills also had an excellent receiving threat out of the backfield in the form of Fred Jackson. Scott Chandler is a good, solid pass catching TE.

 

> Last season [stevie Johnson had] 76 catches vs 135 targets, thats 59 drops,

 

No it isn't, because not all 59 passes were catchable. I recall reading that Stevie Johnson had about 20 - 25 drops last season (don't remember the exact number). Which means that in the rest of those 59 cases, Fitz didn't throw a catchable pass.

 

Also, there's a difference between a pass that's just barely good enough to be considered "catchable," and a pass that's a ridiculously easy catch. Especially on shorter throws, the mere fact a pass is "catchable" doesn't necessarily mean the throw was particularly good.

 

> [Rodgers] has a much better O line . . .

 

That's news to me. In 2010, Brandon Jackson averaged 3.7 yards per carry for the Packers. Fred Jackson averaged 4.2 yards per carry for the Bills in 2010. In 2011, James Starks averaged 4.3 yards a carry for the Packers, while Fred Jackson averaged a whopping 5.5 yards per carry for the Bills. I'll grant that, of the two Jacksons, Fred is better than Brandon. But I'm still not seeing much evidence that the Packers' OL was good at run blocking. Or at pass protection for that matter: Aaron Rodgers was hit and rushed all year during 2010, and their OL was dominated by the Steelers' DL in that Super Bowl. Aaron Rodgers threw the ball accurately anyway.

 

I'm not saying that QB is the only thing wrong with the Bills' offense. On the other hand, it's not like you can rely on Fitz to throw the ball accurately. Not even when you give him time to throw. And not even when the the throw should be a nice, short, easy throw to make.

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I'd just prefer to run the ball more out of those spread formations. Our OLinemen love it and both Freddy and CJ have advantages in the space created.

Agreed.

 

Ask Thurman about how effective it was to run out of passing formations...

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Last season 76 catches vs 135 targets, thats 59 drops,

 

Sorry to nitpick, but no, it's not 59 drops.

 

I just would hate to have that become the next oft-repeated stat that is either flat-out wrong or taken out of context.

 

I know that you're not saying he sucks based on that misinterpretation of stats, but others surely might.

 

Here's a good article re: drop rates: http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/01/17/drop-rate-2011-which-receivers-are-dropping-the-ball/

 

Notice that SJ is not in the top 20. Someone posted it recently but I thought it applies here too.

 

To put targets vs completions in context, Roddy White had 179 targets last year to his 100 receptions, which is pretty much on par with SJ.

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A "target" does not mean that the ball is catchable or that receiver even got a hand on it. Its basically an all encompassing term describing that the ball was intended for X receiver. The end result could be out of bounds, 10 yards over his head, bounce of the ground, knocked down by the defender, intercepted, dropped, etc.

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