It Sickens Me To Have To Do This...

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

I have a fantasy football draft on Sunday and have a dilema. I have the first pick after the keepers are chosen. Based on the keepers that the other teams have chosen, the only real choices for my #1 pick are Chris Johnson and Tom Brady*. I can't ever root for Brady*, but he is clearly the best pick available. Do I sacrifice my dignity and morals and pick the antichrist?

[KD in CA]

Depends on who else you have at QB and RB (and league scoring rules). But I'd have no qualms about taking Brady; you can still root against him only you'll have fantasy success to cushion the blow when he does well. It's a win-win.

[5 Wide]

Gotta do it. if he throws 5 td's at least you benefit. If he tears his ACL... we all benefit

[The Poojer]

Chris Johnson....peyton manning is/was the only QB in recent history of being a #1 fantasy pick....quality RB ALWAYS love QB.....plus Chris Johnson will have a killer year

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

I should probably clarify that everyone in my league has the option to keep 2 players that would count as their 1st and 2nd pick. My team was so bad that am not keeping anyone. Most of the top players are being kept and Brady and Johnson are the only 2 real options for my first pick.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

I have a fantasy football draft on Sunday and have a dilema. I have the first pick after the keepers are chosen. Based on the keepers that the other teams have chosen, the only real choices for my #1 pick are Chris Johnson and Tom Brady*. I can't ever root for Brady*, but he is clearly the best pick available. Do I sacrifice my dignity and morals and pick the antichrist?

 

Yes

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Gotta do it. if he throws 5 td's at least you benefit. If he tears his ACL... we all benefit

 

Well said.

 

Brady is the perfect pick. He's a great hedge. You can't stop Brady from throwing TD's; might as well allow your FF to benefit from it.

[aussiew]

And this is exactly why I quit playing fantasy. Couldn't handle the conflict of interest on game day.

[Maury Ballstein]

Depends on the scoring. In my league qb's like Brady are gold.......I used to have the same problem hated Peyton would never draft him.....when Brady puts up 400 yards on the fins again you'll be pleased

[Wooderson]

I wanted Brady really bad at #6 in my draft. Figures, #5 takes him. Had to go Chris Johnson, basically hoping for a comeback year. I also got MJD in the second round so it's a high risk, high reward kind of year for Wooderson.

[Buftex]

We had our draft yesterday, I had the 7th pick...exactly one spot later or 5 spots earlier than I wanted...in our draft, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, Aaron Rodgers, LeSean McCoy, Tom Brady and Drew Brees were all off the board when I picked. It came to me, a decision between Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford or Chris Johnson. None was my ideal pick (in our leauge QB is vital), but I picked.Chris Johson, figuring a decent QB would be available when I picked next. You said you are re-drafting your whole team, so figure out, or make an educated guess, as to who will be available with your next pick. My guess is, you will go with C Johnson. If he is the best RB available to you, I would suspect that the top 3 or 4 RB's are already gone (Rice, McCoy, Foster)...if you have to wait until the next round (and you said you had no keepers) you are going to be very thin at runnig back...the difference between C Johnsons (assuming he is as good as advertised by the "experts") and a second tier RB is greater than the differnce between, say Brady and Jay Cutler...C Johnsons is one of only a handful of RB's who, assuming there are no injuries, will be the undisputed featured running back...all starting QB's start every game, unless they just suck. I assume you will know which is which in the QB realm. Go with Johnson!

 

In my league, I really wanted Rodgers, Brees or Brady..but they were gone, so I still ended up with Cam Newton in the second round...I can live with that, and I got what is percieved to be an elite running back.

Edited September 3, 2012 by Buftex

[section122]

how many people kept qbs? Buftex did a pretty good job of summing up what I'm about to say but...

Look at the other teams around you and what there needs are. If all of them kept a qb then you should be good. However I would still take Brady.

Fantasy Football is not a rb driven game anymore. It's all about the qbs and having an elite one is important. Brady is great to own. As someone else mentioned when he does well so does your team - when he doesn't you get to enjoy Brady sucking. I took him 5th overall the year he blew out his knee and I still was excited when it happened (sick bastard that I am) bc i thought the Bills had a shot at the playoffs. Fantasy Football is fun but real football trumps what I root for.

[BuffOrange]

how many people kept qbs? Buftex did a pretty good job of summing up what I'm about to say but...

Look at the other teams around you and what there needs are. If all of them kept a qb then you should be good. However I would still take Brady.

Fantasy Football is not a rb driven game anymore. It's all about the qbs and having an elite one is important.

 

Though this recent theory is more true than it was, I still don't entirely buy it. The elite QB's last year outscored the mid-tier QBs' by an unprecedented amount last year. It remains to be seen whether that will be the norm. Personally I am a bit skeptical that last year wasn't an outlier.

 

Before Rodgers threw 45 TD's last year he threw 28, 30, and 28.

In the three years before & after Peyton's record 49, he threw for 26, 27, 29, 28, 31, and 31.

 

There's probably going to be some regression here. Plus Rivers for example had a career-worst year and he should be a lot better this yr which will further close the gap.

 

Going QB (this goes for TE as well) first also limits your flexibility of picking your value later on, since you only play one. Like if some QB you like really drops unexpectedly you kinda have to ignore him & look elsewhere.

 

Just something to think about. I do think Brady is a perfectly reasonable 1st round pick because of how safe he is if you don't trust any of the available RB's. I probably would've taken Rodgers 4th in my league if the big 3 RB's were gone but I wouldn't have felt great about it.

 

And yah I never understood the conundrum of taking a player on a team you hate. The simple answer is if you're torn on what to root for when he's playing the Bills, you're not much of a fan.

[section122]

Though this recent theory is more true than it was, I still don't entirely buy it. The elite QB's last year outscored the mid-tier QBs' by an unprecedented amount last year. It remains to be seen whether that will be the norm. Personally I am a bit skeptical that last year wasn't an outlier.

 

Before Rodgers threw 45 TD's last year he threw 28, 30, and 28.

In the three years before & after Peyton's record 49, he threw for 26, 27, 29, 28, 31, and 31.

 

There's probably going to be some regression here. Plus Rivers for example had a career-worst year and he should be a lot better this yr which will further close the gap.

.

That's some good statistical analysis and logic there

Qb's just throw so much these days and throw for so many tds. Even in a standard scoring league 30 tds for a qb equals 120 points - you would need a rb to score 20 tds to equal that production and it doesn't happen often especially with the rb by committee these days. The hard part is because of those rbbc it's important to get a good one early eschewing a higher scorer (read elite qb).

 

As for the bolded - man I hope so! Rivers was available so late I snatched him in the 9th round as our starter. 6 qbs went in the first 2 rounds so I knew I could wait but didn't expect to be able to wait that long. I got Peyton in the 9th round as well in another league (as my backup Stafford in the 3rd was to good to pass on). I got burned bad by Rivers last year but I too think he'll have a bounce back.

[BuffOrange]

Yah, it's not really about how many more pts Brees scores vs Chris Johnson, it's how much does he outscore the Mannings/Romo/Rivers/Ryan etc. Sanchez had as many points as Foster last year...