Russell Wilson to start Friday

[Beerball]

world class....vick is a world class athalete--greatest qb athalete ever--great physicality at the quarterback position.

You lost me at physicality. He's an exceptional athlete but physicality isn't his strong suit. Matter of fact if he tried to avoid the physicality of the NFL he wouldn't by physically unable to perform.

[NoSaint]

Are we going to go through every draft and declare the "Should Have"s now? Is this the point we are at? Too many good moves by the FO to be happy, so we need to do the whole hindsight thing since (god forbid) we arent 100% in every move...

The best part - we might not even be wrong!

[#34fan]

Wilson has been named the Starter for week one. -It's official.

[Dragonborn10]

Wilson runs a 4.55 40 which is amazing for a qb

Which means what? Nothing that's right. Whether he succeeds or fails has nothing to do with how fast he runs the 40. He might run it a full second faster than Tom Brady and a Peyton may never have run 40 yards in his life, but I will take them as my QB.

[Bronc24]

 

Which means what? Nothing that's right. Whether he succeeds or fails has nothing to do with how fast he runs the 40. He might run it a full second faster than Tom Brady and a Peyton may never have run 40 yards in his life, but I will take them as my QB.

 

You couldn't take them. They weren't available in the 2012 draft. Wilson was.

 

 

What he meant is that QB's can look good until teams get game film on them and figure out how to defend them.

 

And what I meant was there seems to be no need to do that with Fitz.

[Orton's Arm]

I'll answer all three of you simultaneously.

 

"TJ Graham's biggest asset is his ability to stretch defenses."

 

What a yawner. If you knew how ridiculously cliched and overused that statement is you'd be ashamed to use it.

 

"Kinda like how you already put Wilson there and know that TJ will be a bust? How about we let them play some games first."

 

We don't know how good Wilson will be, but right now both he and Cousins, both available in the mid-3rd, and I was actually thinking Cousins even more, who was a rated 2nd/3rd unlike Graham who no one had going until the late round if at all, are both playing well, much better than Graham in a position that is far more difficult to learn in the NFL. We more than likely easily could have had Graham in the 4th, maybe even 5th or 6th.

 

Otherwise no, we don't need to play any games to see how good Graham's going to be any more than we needed to see any to have realized that Hardy was a bust. Players like Graham are one-dimensional. All they bring is speed, and if you're not new to football, then you realize how little speed in and of itself translates to the NFL. (Clue: See CJ Spiller, the "blindingly fast RB" from GT)

 

Otherwise, if Graham's so lightning fast, then what happened in college where he averaged a paltry 14.6 yards per catch over four years and had a total of 1,430 yards receiving total in four seasons?

 

Are we supposed to believe that his speed did little for him in college, otherwise why the pathetically pedestrian average, but now at the pro level he's going to shake all that and beat players that he didn't beat in college?

 

Have you looked at his game logs and asked yourself why he flunked in spades against the best (meaning really just above average) defenses in his own conference? Just asking because it doesn't seem like it.

 

Anyway, so what we're supposed to believe now is that he couldn't get that done in college, against guys that didn't even get drafted, but that he's mysteriously going to get it done against the best that are in the NFL now? Because what I'm seeing is that of the 29 CBs drafted this year, he didn't have a good game against any one of those teams. Not that they would have assigned their best CB to him if he had.

 

So while you say that I have "strong opinions," if you mean strongly researched, yes, I fully agree.

 

I would argue that your opinions are all equally strong, yet without any evidence, since there is almost none given that players like him come and go like the leaves on the trees every season.

 

Graham won't even be on this team in three seasons. It was a wasted 3rd round pick. He brings nothing but speed and he's a project in that way otherwise. I wouldn't be surprised if he's released before next season.

 

Otherwise, we needed a QB, ... unless you're one of those people that actually believes Gailey, Mr. 10-22. LOL If Gailey were coaching the Browns you would all be laughing at him and his statements.

I respect your post. I'm not saying I agree with you 100%. But it's clear you've put serious thought into forming your opinions.

 

As for Graham: there's a legitimate role for a speed WR on an offense. John Taylor with the 49ers offense in the '80s. Alvin Harper with the Cowboys of the '90s. Peerless Price with the 2002 Bills.

 

A guy like that won't necessarily catch a lot of passes, or put up yardage totals which compare to the offense's go-to WR. But he's still an important component of the offense as a whole. Alvin Harper had 1547 receiving yards in his college career. John Taylor had over 2,400 college receiving yards, and a better NFL career than Harper. It's unlikely Graham is another John Taylor. But maybe Graham is the kind of guy who will average around 600 receiving yards per year as a pro; while also making defenses aware that he's a threat to burn them deep.

 

If you don't htink there's a significant chance of that happening, show me why it's highly unlikely to happen. If you do, I'll accept your opinion. I don't claim to have researched this as thoroughly as you have; and I'm open to changing my opinion in light of additional information.

[Thirty Year Fan]

R Wilson top luck and RGH III this year.

 

Wilson has been named the Starter for week one. -It's official.

Pro Bowl ! Edited August 29, 2012 by Thirty Year Fan

[K-9]

R Wilson top luck and RGH III this year.

 

prl!o bow

 

His team should win more games, that's for sure.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[biglukes]

Someone needs to explain this ridiculous thinking that the Bills weren't in a position to pass up a QB in the 3rd round and are therefore inept because they didn't take one. That makes no sense to me at all. Of course they were in a position to pass up a QB, its the third round. On top of that they targeted the guy they wanted at WR and got him.

Edited August 30, 2012 by biglukes

[Malazan]

Someone needs to explain this ridiculous thinking that the Bills weren't in a position to pass up a QB in the 3rd round and are therefore inept because they didn't take one. That makes no sense to me at all. Of course they were in a position to pass up a QB, its the third round. On top of that they targeted the guy they wanted at WR and got him.

 

It's the Bills. All decisions are wrong.

[Cash]

If you actually go back and look at 3rd round WR's drafted over the last 10 years, you will see lots of guys that have had success in the NFL. A far greater amount of success than 3rd round QB's.

 

Okay, I'll bite. 2002-2011 (no point in including 2012 yet, duh):

 

2002

QB: Josh McCown - the better of the McCowns. Not saying much, but he was a marginal starter for a while.

WR: Marquis Walker, Cliff Russell, Eric Crouch - yikes.

 

2003

QB: Dave Ragone, Chris Simms - *THE* Dave Ragone? Wow! Simms wasn't totally awful until he broke his spleen.

WR: Kelley Washington, Nate Burleson, Kevin Curtis, Billy McMullen - Burleson's decent and Curtis doesn't totally suck.

 

2004

QB: Matt Schaub - best player on either list so far; would be a much bigger star if he could stay healthy.

WR: Derrick Hamilton, Bernard Berrian, Devard Darling - The immortal B-twice makes an appearance!

 

2005

QB: Charlie Frye, David Greene - Frye was pretty bad. I don't think I've ever heard of David Greene.

WR: Courtney Roby, Chris Henry, Brandon Jones - Henry was fairly decent when he could get on the field, and came to an unfortunate end. Never heard of the other guys.

 

2006

QB: Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle - Not exactly Montana/Young on the 49ers, huh?

WR: Travis Wilson, Derek Hagan, Brandon Williams, Maurice Stovall, Willie Reid - Hagan is the only name that stands out, and that's only because he's fighting to make our team. Good luck, Derek!

 

2007

QB: Trent Edwards - No further explanation needed.

WR: Jacoby Jones, Yamon Figurs, Laurent Robinson, Jason Hill, James Jones, Mike Sims-Walker, Paul Williams, Johnnie Lee Higgins

 

This is a good year to show why this is kind of a dumb comparison (not calling you or anyone else dumb, Luxy). Eight WRs drafted in the 3rd, compared to only 1 QB. The QB was a crappy starter for a couple years, got cut, and (for now) is still in the league as a backup. Of the 8 WRs, 1 is a return specialist, 2 more have had 1 good year each, James Jones has been very meh in one of the best passing attacks ever, and Johnnie Lee Higgins once had a good game against the Bills, and that's it. In total, that's more value than Edwards, but so what? Obviously 8 guys should out-produce 1, especially since every team starts at least 2 WRs, has at least 2 more that play significant time every week, and frequently rotates them in & out of games. Whereas only 1 QB starts, and if he's any good, he's the only one who ever plays. Anyway, enough editorializing, the show must go on.

 

2008

QB: Kevin O'Connell - I remember when he was drafted, all the analysts couldn't shut up about how brilliant Belichick was, and how O'Connell would probably be dealt for a haul of picks in 2-3 years. Instead, he promptly got cut. The lesson is, just because they're paid to talk about football doesn't mean the analysts are smarter than you.

WR: Earl Bennett, Early Doucet, Harry Douglas, Mario Manningham, Andre Caldwell - another solid win for the WRs, although mostly by default. Everyone but Manningham has shown some flashes but ultimately not been good enough to own on a fantasy team. Manningham's legit, but I'm still glad we didn't pursue him. He's a starter, not a star.

 

2009

QB: None - WRs win by default.

WR: Derrick Williams, Brandon Tate, Mike Wallace(!), Ramses Barden, Patrick Turner, Deon Butler, Juaquin Iglesias - One big star and a whole lotta scrubs. Any of these other guys still in the league?

 

2010

QB: Colt McCoy - Technically the jury's still out, but I always thought he would stink in the NFL, and nothing he's done in the last couple years has changed my mind.

WR: Damian Williams, Brandon LaFell, Emmanuel Sanders, Jordan Shipley, Eric Decker, Andre Roberts, Armanti Edwards - Decker's okay and may do really well with Manning throwing him the ball. Sanders has had a catch or two for the Steelers, and may be a good player going forward. Ditto for Shipley, but for the Bungles. LaFell is supposed to start this year, but I think he stinks. Never heard of the others, but they're young. Keep in mind that a lot of WRs "break out" in their 3rd pro season. All of these guys are theoretically candidates for a break-out season this year.

 

2011

QB: Ryan Mallett - Hasn't played in the regular season yet. I don't count Terrelle Prior, because he was taken in the supplemental draft. Fundamentally different process than the regular draft, and not germane to this discussion.

WR: Austin Pettis, Leonard Hankerson, Vincent Brown, Jerrel Jernigan - Hankerson was the #1 "who is he?" guy drafted in my fantasy league last week. Brown was pressed into action last year with underwhelming results. All of these guys are too young to judge, though.

 

So there you have it. To go back to Luxy's original assertion, definitely more WRs have had success in the NFL over this span, but a lot more have been drafted and a lot more have been afforded opportunities to play. In terms of stars or at least borderline stars, it's pretty subjective, but I'd say only Schaub for QBs, and only Mike Wallace for WRs. If you wanted to throw Manningham in for WRs as well, I couldn't fault you, but I think history will prove me right that Manningham's a decent player, but eminently replaceable. But I digress. The point is that your success rate at either position isn't very good by the 3rd round. I don't find that very surprising, because QB is the #1 hardest to find/biggest impact position, and WR is probably #3 or #4. I'd expect success rates for guards, safeties, and linebackers to be much higher in the 3rd round. I don't have the time to total up the percentages of starters for the players listed above, but if anyone else wants to do it, have at it. Keep in mind, though, that there are 2-3 starting WR jobs for every starting QB job, so it still wouldn't be an apples-to-apples comparison.

 

I hope Wilson succeeds; seems like a good guy.

 

But I go back to my post earlier in this thread, which shows how over the last 4 years, there's been no starting QB's produced in rounds 3 or later (unless you count John Skelton).

 

I can't see how anyone could fault the Bills for not picking Wilson; when you get into the 3rd and beyond, the odds seem extraordinarily slim that you'll land a starting QB.

 

I don't count John Skelton, but you have to admit that 4 years is not the best sample size. If you look over the last few decades, you wind up with something like a 10% chance of finding a starter (not necessarily a really good starter; maybe just Trent Edwards) for every QB drafted in the 3rd round. This compares to about 25% for the 2nd, 50% for the 1st, and a little over 5% for most of the rounds after the 3rd.

 

I don't really disagree with your argument, but I also don't think anyone should be swayed by it. If a guy's available in the 3rd round, it's unlikely that he'll become a star or even a marginal starter - that's absolutely true. But it's not impossible. In the abstract, I agree with you that you should generally be looking to draft your QB at the top of the draft, where the chance of success is highest (but still pretty low). But for a specific case like Russell Wilson, it doesn't matter. Pro Bowlers do occasionally come from the 3rd round, and he *could* be the next one. If someone sees specific NFL-caliber abilities in him that suggest he could be the next late-round Pro Bowler, the statistical argument isn't going to work. And nor should it: Population statistics (like round-by-round QB success rates) can't be applied to individuals. Otherwise you could say that every QB ever picked in the 3rd round was a bad pick.

 

Anyway, I don't really have a stance on the Graham vs. Wilson argument. I liked Wilson pre-draft, but also thought the 3rd was too high to take him. Maybe I was wrong. I hated the Graham pick at the time, but hopefully I'm wrong, and it's way too early to say either way. I *do* know that we could stand an upgrade over Fitzy (I still love him, but he's far from elite), and our current backup situation terrifies me. T-Jack is 29 and probably as good as he'll ever be. He is not the answer. It would be nice to have a young guy with potential, who's looked good in the preseason, a la Wilson or Mallett or whomever else. But the bottom line is winning. If the Bills win games, I'll be happy. If they lose games, I'll be bummed.