Electoral College Map 2012

[BiggieScooby]

Electoral Map

 

How does Romney get to 270? The most likely path…

 

Since we all know by now that a Presidential candidate can win the popular vote nationally but lose the election, special thanks to Florida 2000, I think it's important to diagnose the likelihood of such a scenario playing out in 2012.

 

The changing U.S. state populations will have a slight impact in the 2012 national election. If Obama carries all the states that presently pole to lean his way or greater the Democrats can count on on 237 electoral votes. If Romney carries the states McCain did he will automatically pickup an extra 6 electoral votes; from 173 to 179. This addition by subtraction reversal means Romney could compound this advantage by adding an Iowa or Nevada.

 

To chip away at Obama’s victory and pickup more votes the Republicans need to count on traditionally conservative states of; Indiana (11), Virginia (13) and North Carolina (15). Obama was able to narrowly clip McCain here in 2008. Winning back these 3 states would give Romney back 39 electoral votes. These states appear the easiest for Romney to "win back".

 

If Paul Ryan on the ticket gives the Republicans the Midwest boost they are hoping, than Wisconsin (9) and Iowa (6) are in play and the Republicans pickup another 15 electoral votes.

 

Assuming hard hit Nevada (6) with a heavy Mormon population goes with Romney the Republicans can count on another 6 electoral votes.

 

The second congressional district of Nebraska (Omaha) which Obama won in 2008 is a factor that should not be underplayed. This 1 electoral vote can be the tie-break Romney needs to get to 270. Also Maine awards its electoral votes via a Congressional District Methodology.

 

Even with all this good fortune: Florida (29) and Ohio (18) become the only way for Romney to close out this victory. Like George W. in 2000, Romney needs to take Florida. Romney can even afford to lose Colorado (9) a state in which 2.8% of the electorate is Mormon and there is a strong evangelical base.

 

If this scenario plays out Romney wins with 270 electoral votes to Obama's 268. A result the liberal in me would hate to see, but the statistician in me says is the most probable.

 

Let me know your thoughts.

[Koko78]

Statistician? More like Sadistician!

 

Seriously though, Obama's biggest problem is the loss in popularity with independents. Seems to me that Romney is attempting to take advantage of that weakness by selecting Ryan, whose fiscally conservative credentials can be used to capitalize on the mistakes that Obama has made in terms of the economy, federal spending and Obamacare's price tag/unpopularity.

[meazza]

Electoral Map

 

How does Romney get to 270? The most likely path…

 

Since we all know by now that a Presidential candidate can win the popular vote nationally but lose the election, special thanks to Florida 2000, I think it's important to diagnose the likelihood of such a scenario playing out in 2012.

 

The changing U.S. state populations will have a slight impact in the 2012 national election. If Obama carries all the states that presently pole to lean his way or greater the Democrats can count on on 237 electoral votes. If Romney carries the states McCain did he will automatically pickup an extra 6 electoral votes; from 173 to 179. This addition by subtraction reversal means Romney could compound this advantage by adding an Iowa or Nevada.

 

To chip away at Obama’s victory and pickup more votes the Republicans need to count on traditionally conservative states of; Indiana (11), Virginia (13) and North Carolina (15). Obama was able to narrowly clip McCain here in 2008. Winning back these 3 states would give Romney back 39 electoral votes. These states appear the easiest for Romney to "win back".

 

If Paul Ryan on the ticket gives the Republicans the Midwest boost they are hoping, than Wisconsin (9) and Iowa (6) are in play and the Republicans pickup another 15 electoral votes.

 

Assuming hard hit Nevada (6) with a heavy Mormon population goes with Romney the Republicans can count on another 6 electoral votes.

 

The second congressional district of Nebraska (Omaha) which Obama won in 2008 is a factor that should not be underplayed. This 1 electoral vote can be the tie-break Romney needs to get to 270. Also Maine awards its electoral votes via a Congressional District Methodology.

 

Even with all this good fortune: Florida (29) and Ohio (18) become the only way for Romney to close out this victory. Like George W. in 2000, Romney needs to take Florida. Romney can even afford to lose Colorado (9) a state in which 2.8% of the electorate is Mormon and there is a strong evangelical base.

 

If this scenario plays out Romney wins with 270 electoral votes to Obama's 268. A result the liberal in me would hate to see, but the statistician in me says is the most probable.

 

Let me know your thoughts.

 

Please link your source.

[/dev/null]

The election will be held in Iowa, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida. Obama must win any one of those states. Romney must win all 4

[dayman]

The election will be held in Iowa, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida. Obama must win any one of those states. Romney must win all 4

 

Agreed but I would add Wisconsin and Colorado and highlight Florida as a blow that makes it next to impossible (but not impossible) for Romney to take it home. It really is Florida as a threshold matter if Romney pulls Florida then the rest of the states we mentioned become a huge chess game.

[BiggieScooby]

Please link your source.

 

Original work.

[WorldTraveller]

The election will be held in Iowa, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida. Obama must win any one of those states. Romney must win all 4

 

Not the case, as I've explained to NewBills, that with the pick of Paul Ryan, Wisconsin now becomes a coin flip. Which means that Romney could afford to lose either Ohio and Virginia and replace it with 2 out of the following 3; N.H, Iowa or Colorado.

[dayman]

Not the case, as I've explained to NewBills, that with the pick of Paul Ryan, Wisconsin now becomes a coin flip. Which means that Romney could afford to lose either Ohio and Virginia and replace it with 2 out of the following 3; N.H, Iowa or Colorado.

 

Ya and after a little staring at the map it seems about right.

 

Here's the link I had in the other thread you can run a few simulations and sort of see it play out. Stare at Florida/Ohio/Colorado/Iowa/Virginia/N.H./Wisconsin as it goes and you will quickly see the chess match unfold.

 

http://www.270towin.com/simulation/

[WorldTraveller]

The most likely route before the Ryan pick was

 

Florida, Ohio, Virginia, N.C, Indiana and one of the following (Iowa, N.H, N.V, COL, WI, MI or PA)

 

Now with the pick of Ryan,

 

he could afford to lose either VA or Ohio and pick up Wisconsin and 2 of the states previously mentioned. CO, NH and Iowa seem to be the most likely

[dayman]

It's not a given btw that he carries WI now though.

[WorldTraveller]

Of course not, who said it was? If I remember correctly, I said "coin flip", which infers 50/50

[birdog1960]

is it just me on this thread that thinks romney seriously worsened his chances for a fla win with the ryan pick?

[WorldTraveller]

It's certainly possible birdog.. But I will say this again, as a resident of Florida, I watched rubios campaign closely when he ran against meek and crist, and they both tried hammering him over his FULL embrace or Paul Ryan's plan, and Rubio ran on it and as a result he won the senior voters by a landslide.

 

I believe the obamacare argument of IPAB rationing and cost control and the 700 B obamacare "raid" of Medicare to pay for his deeply unpopular law, specially with seniors will serve as an effective offset. We'll see

[/dev/null]

is it just me on this thread that thinks romney seriously worsened his chances for a fla win with the ryan pick?

I don't think the Ryan pick had any direct positive or negative effect on Florida or Wisconsin for that matter. It's an attempt to move the focus of this election onto trivial matters like entitlement reforms and slowing the growth of the Federal deficit.

 

Romney is just trying to divert the electorates attention away from vital issues of the days such as Anne Romney's horse, Mitt's Tax returns, or the Surgeon Generals warning that Mitt Romney may cause Cancer.

[dayman]

It's certainly possible birdog.. But I will say this again, as a resident of Florida, I watched rubios campaign closely when he ran against meek and crist, and they both tried hammering him over his FULL embrace or Paul Ryan's plan, and Rubio ran on it and as a result he won the senior voters by a landslide.

 

I believe the obamacare argument of IPAB rationing and cost control and the 700 B obamacare "raid" of Medicare to pay for his deeply unpopular law, specially with seniors will serve as an effective offset. We'll see

 

I don't think Rubio would have helped him win Florida IMO. The people in Florida who Rubio helps with are on board, those who Rubio hurts with are not. There is little in the middle.

 

Florida will be a bloodbath. Obama will talk medicare voucher. Romney will counter it doesn't hurt those already on Medicare and point to Medicare cuts in Obamacare. Obama will point out those same cuts are in Ryan plan PLUS voucher for the next batch of medicare participants. Ultimately that gets to the nexus...people in Florida like medicare. Will it be enough to say "your medicare is fine" when Obama says "so what about your kids?"

 

Ultimately I do think Ryan will hurt in Florida but it won't be fatal per se. But Florida is going to see a ton of Romney money and Gov. Scott proved in the last election cycle that Florida is for sale to just about anyone w/ enough cash.

 

Lies and money will win Florida. That's the one truth.

Edited August 15, 2012 by TheNewBills

[dayman]

Just to add to the Rubio comment...some tea party people went down in primaries today here in Florida. He's agile but that's where he came from.

Edited August 15, 2012 by TheNewBills

[OCinBuffalo]

1. Colorado just went to from leans Obama to Toss Up. IMHO...that means CO will go Romney. It's the only conclusion that makes sense. What is Obama going to do between then and now that is going to make it go back? Is Obama gonna do tax reform, or something else that people want before Nov? Spending a boatload of money there may hold it at Toss up...but I don't think it moves back to lean Obama.

 

2. It's no surprise that...since few in the media understand the TEA party....most would not understand who is actually IN the TEA party. There's all kinds of people in the TEA party...including TONS of seniors. So, this "Ryan kills Florida " analysis is preposterous. Look at these poll results: http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/04/gallup-seniors.php

 

Hey Josh....it's only "counterintuitive" for you, and the rest of the media.

 

Why would seniors...who are most likely to vote Republican, least susceptable to candidate "marketing", and most likely to respond to somebody who is every bit the man he says he is.....not respond overwhelmingly to Paul Ryan? Therefore, this Florida thing is ridiculous. As was said above...Rubio gets who Romney would have gotten anyway. Ryan gets people excited.

 

In fact, Obama needs to be up by 10 in a Florida poll for me to believe that he can win it...that's because: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/08/01/us/politics/01quinnipiac-new-york-times-cbs-poll.html see? They keep stacking the deck with registered Democrats in these polls. 6 points in Florida, 7 in OH, and 6 in PA =

 

And, the undecided thing above means Romney gets 2-3 points at the end. So...6 points(stacked deck) + 2-3 points(undecided late moves)= Obama needs to be winning by 10 in one of these polls for me to believe that he will win Florida.