dayman Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 (edited) So Lichtman rejects polls all together and also finds the common thinking of "economy is everything" to be an overstatement. He claims to have 13 keys that don't miss and haven't since he started in the early '80s. Taken from wikipedia his keys are as follows: Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. Romney Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Obama Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Obama Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. Obama Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Undecided Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Romney Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. Obama Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Obama Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. Obama Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Obama Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Obama Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Romney Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Obama The bold portion is as predicted by him (not me) quite a while ago. I heard an interview w/ him on Sirius in the car earlier today (prompting this thread) and he says it's solid, hasn't changed and he still predicts Obama to win. http://www.usnews.co...-to-win-in-2012 What does PPP think about his methodology and prediction? Edited August 7, 2012 by TheNewBills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 I just pray to God his prediction is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meazza Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 I just pray to God his prediction is correct. Or Lord knows you'll have 8+% unemployment and huge deficits. Oh wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 And Mitt Romney is going to fix that, how, exactly? It's not like Obama had 8 years of inept "leadership" before he took over to try to fix. Oh .. wait .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorldTraveller Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Or Lord knows you'll have 8+% unemployment and huge deficits. Oh wait. You do realize that you are responding to someone with the IQ of a turnip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meazza Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 (edited) And Mitt Romney is going to fix that, how, exactly? It's not like Obama had 8 years of inept "leadership" before he took over to try to fix. Oh .. wait .. Well you said, "i pray to god he's right". If Romney wins, what happens exactly? You do realize that you are responding to someone with the IQ of a turnip? That's most of PPP Edited August 7, 2012 by meazza Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 So Lichtman rejects polls all together and also finds the common thinking of "economy is everything" to be an overstatement. He claims to have 13 keys that don't miss and haven't since he started in the early '80s. Taken from wikipedia his keys are as follows: Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. Romney Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Obama Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Obama Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. Obama Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Undecided Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Romney Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. Obama Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Obama Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. Obama Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Obama Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Obama Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Romney Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Obama The bold portion is as predicted by him (not me) quite a while ago. I heard an interview w/ him on Sirius in the car earlier today (prompting this thread) and he says it's solid, hasn't changed and he still predicts Obama to win. http://www.usnews.co...-to-win-in-2012 What does PPP think about his methodology and prediction? I think his methodology suffers from a serious flaw that too many of his points are subjective (How do you measure charisma objectively? Is OWS "major social unrest" or not? Regardless of whether or not you support it, are the ACA and stimulus really "major" overhauls?) and equally weighted (I have a hard time believe that "the nation is in a recession" is independent of the magnitude of the recession). I also disagree with some of his answers - "major scandal" is in the eye of the beholder, for one (in that, for example, Obama gets treated with kid-gloves in comparison to the **** Bush got), and "undecided" is just weasely for "short term economy" - the economy is NOT in recession; the answer to that is "Obama" right now, plain and simple. And Mitt Romney is going to fix that, how, exactly? It's not like Obama had 8 years of inept "leadership" before he took over to try to fix. Oh .. wait .. Romney's got experience with money. I'd trust him to reduce the budget deficits before someone who's entire life has been predicated on "other people's money" will... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dayman Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 (edited) I think his methodology suffers from a serious flaw that too many of his points are subjective (How do you measure charisma objectively? Is OWS "major social unrest" or not? Regardless of whether or not you support it, are the ACA and stimulus really "major" overhauls?) and equally weighted (I have a hard time believe that "the nation is in a recession" is independent of the magnitude of the recession). I also disagree with some of his answers - "major scandal" is in the eye of the beholder, for one (in that, for example, Obama gets treated with kid-gloves in comparison to the **** Bush got), and "undecided" is just weasely for "short term economy" - the economy is NOT in recession; the answer to that is "Obama" right now, plain and simple. Romney's got experience with money. I'd trust him to reduce the budget deficits before someone who's entire life has been predicated on "other people's money" will... A few things based on the interview b/c some of the questions you raised are similar to what the host of the show asked. The most obvious is the last part on the short term economy...the results I posted are from 2011 so he didn't know at the time. He didn't specifically go through the keys again in the interview but said the result hasn't changed and he thinks Obama will still win. Major social unrest he did comment on and said it means what it says..."major" and it usually is not going to go against the incumbent. Major scandal he said must be directly tied to the president. For example he said he gave that to the right in both '04 and '08. And then as for the subjective nature of it he said "buy my book" (lol) and there are some more details about how he analyzes them ... but he acknowledged they are still somewhat subjective b/c they aren't hard data but he thinks the hard data (and specifically polls) people use are absolute garbage. Edited August 7, 2012 by TheNewBills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 And then as for the subjective nature of it he said "buy my book" (lol) and there are some more details about how I analyze them ... but he acknowledged they are still somewhat subjective b/c they aren't hard data but he thinks the hard data (and specifically polls) people use are absolute garbage. Well, I wouldn't argue against that. The only hard data that matters is the electoral college - everything else is masturbation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieatcrayonz Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Three guesses without looking.....Lichtman is either a: Bearded commie Uber Dork or young dude with weird lookiing glasses.....possibly all 3 or 2 of three. Now I'll look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Didn't the last silver spoon rich white boy destroy this country enough? We really need another one to come in and dig us into a deeper hole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meazza Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Didn't the last silver spoon rich white boy destroy this country enough? We really need another one to come in and dig us into a deeper hole? So these are your official group of opening posts on PPP. Good to see the lemmings always out in full force Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dayman Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 Three guesses without looking.....Lichtman is either a: Bearded commie Uber Dork or young dude with weird lookiing glasses.....possibly all 3 or 2 of three. Now I'll look. LOL I just looked. Pretty normal looking guy actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieatcrayonz Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Three guesses without looking.....Lichtman is either a: Bearded commie Uber Dork or young dude with weird lookiing glasses.....possibly all 3 or 2 of three. Now I'll look. I looked and will give myself 1.5 out of 3. Score: Bearded commie: 0% although he is listed as "historian" which these days usually means commie. Still I will go with 0% because no beard. Uber Dork: 100% young dude with weird glasses: 50%; not young but you can tell he had lasik and used to wear weird glasses just by looking at him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 You do realize that you are responding to someone with the IQ of a turnip? What, exactly, are you basing your opinion on? I'm really curious to know why someone who can't spell traveler is opining that I have a low IQ. The stage is yours, Einstein. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dayman Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 (edited) I looked and will give myself 1.5 out of 3. Score: Bearded commie: 0% although he is listed as "historian" which these days usually means commie. Still I will go with 0% because no beard. Uber Dork: 100% young dude with weird glasses: 50%; not young but you can tell he had lasik and used to wear weird glasses just by looking at him. Psshh...you get 0. He's middle aged, no glasses or beard, and not an outwardly dorky looking guy. Edited August 7, 2012 by TheNewBills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 So these are your official group of opening posts on PPP. Good to see the lemmings always out in full force Official what? There's nothing official about posting my thoughts on a forum frequented by bigoted dickheads, Meazza. And yes, the lemmings are out in full force. Climb into your shiny metal box with the rest of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob's House Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 And Mitt Romney is going to fix that, how, exactly? Ending the war on business would be a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieatcrayonz Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 I looked and will give myself 1.5 out of 3. Score: Bearded commie: 0% although he is listed as "historian" which these days usually means commie. Still I will go with 0% because no beard. Uber Dork: 100% young dude with weird glasses: 50%; not young but you can tell he had lasik and used to wear weird glasses just by looking at him. Update: I am now scoring 99% on bearded commie. If you Google him you find a 30 minute interview about gettng off of fossil fuels. He ran for Senate where he ran on a platform of getting off fossil fuels. No beard so I can't give myself 100%. The only two reasons I can think of for no beard are: inability to actually grow one or still loves the uber dork haircut so much and a beard would detract from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob's House Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Didn't the last silver spoon rich white boy destroy this country enough? We really need another one to come in and dig us into a deeper hole? Oh yeah, he's rich & white. Must be trouble. You just can't argue with that logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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