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Romney opens 5 point lead over Obama

DaveinElma
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Adam All Pro

Adam

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I don't give a rats butt about ANY of the polls! The real unmitigated morons are the ones who talk about "you have to vote democrat or republican" or your vote doesn't matter. Rose two parties have sold our government. It is bought and paid for, regardless of who wins. The ballots and debates should be open, but those two parties know it would cost them the almighty dollar they get for those who want to purchase power from them.

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DC Tom Hall of Famer

DC Tom

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I don't give a rats butt about ANY of the polls! The real unmitigated morons are the ones who talk about "you have to vote democrat or republican" or your vote doesn't matter. Rose two parties have sold our government. It is bought and paid for, regardless of who wins. The ballots and debates should be open, but those two parties know it would cost them the almighty dollar they get for those who want to purchase power from them.

 

You took a stand on something?

 

This has to be a sign of the 2012 Maybin Apocalypse...

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OCinBuffalo All Pro

OCinBuffalo

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Explain the gap WIDENING in all polls. Was Romney way ahead when polls were saying Obama +2?? Even if what you are saying is true about oversampling by EVERYBODY then the trend is still bad for Romney no matter how you spin it.

 

I'm trying to look at some 2004 polls to see their samples. Seems impossible to find them though. Maybe I'll try 2008 at least.

 

http://www.theatlant...blicans/262834/

 

Some reading for all you whiners about polling. The polls are scientific, you guys are the ones trying to make them biased....

I thought I just did. :blink:

 

+4 oversampling wasn't good enough, because it only had Obama up by +4. It didn't improve D registration...which is SERIOUSLY LAGGING...in places like OHIO! See here: https://docs.google....gxQ0F4OVE#gid=0 Notice, this is RAW DATA...as in...data that hasn't been massaged, or messaged, and it's not a "sample" :lol:Yes... you are seeing that correctly...a 11.5% absentee ballot request shift...away from Obama from 2008-2012.

 

Ohio Rs are historically "go down to the poll and pull the lever" people, much more so than it's Ds...so we should expect to see more Ds here. However...11.5% less of them. Are we to believe that 151k ballots will be requested, and this shift corrected, in a few weeks? :lol: Come now. It's right in front of you. EDIT: This alone proves that the D+10 expected turnout in your OHIO poll's sample is completely untenable.

 

So, they went "full retard" and oversampled by D +10...and now...viola! Obama up by 9. If we widen the bias...we get widened results. That's not magic...that's math. Statistics, actually. Ask any expert...ask a Business Intelligence expert (um, me) if "scientific" polls can be tinkered with to produce biased results. My idiot clients have done it for years...and then cried when things didn't turn out as expected.

 

That's why I tell clients: You get into trouble when you go looking for patterns, rather than letting them come to you.

 

Here's a pattern that has come to us: we have raw data in spread sheet, compiled by a guy who has 0 reason to lie, and data that comes directly from the source. I just gave you raw data...that cannot be spun. Are you willing to argue against fact here?

 

This is going to be fun....please, by all means...start telling me how these ballot requests don't matter: when you have "scientific" polls of 1000 people, and I have the factual data of 617,003 people....that proves that Obama has 0 chance of having the D turnout of 2008 in Ohio :lol:

 

 

Edit: In FL....Romney has already registered 240k more voters than voted for McCain in 2008....and McCain lost to Obama there by 200k.

 

Yet...Romney is down by 9? Again...I have raw data...and you have what? A supposedly scientific poll that has a D+10 turnout in it's sample, and Romeny winning with Independents...but down by 9 overall?

 

How in the Sam Hell can that possibly make any sense to you?

Edited by OCinBuffalo
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B-Man Hall of Famer

B-Man

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Obama’s Approval Rating Mirrors 2010

 

For all of the wishful thinking in the mainstream press about President Obama’s positioning 40 days before this election, Obama’s approval rating looks remarkably similar to what it was on this date in 2010 — shortly before his party lost a historic 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats. On September 27, 2010 — exactly two years ago — Rasmussen Reports showed Obama’s net approval rating among likely voters to be minus-3 percentage points (with 48 percent approving and 51 percent disapproving). Among those who felt “strongly,” Obama’s net approval rating was minus-14 points (with 27 percent “strongly” approving and 41 percent “strongly” disapproving).

 

Today, Rasmussen Reports shows Obama’s net approval rating among likely voters to be minus-3 points (with 48 percent approving and 51 percent disapproving). Among those who feel “strongly,” Obama’s net approval rating is minus-14 points (with 28 percent “strongly” approving and 42 percent “strongly” disapproving). So, two years after the biggest Republican gains in the House since before World War II, Americans remain every bit as unimpressed with the way Obama is handling his job as president as they were then.

 

 

http://www.weeklysta...010_653137.html

 

 

 

POLL: Libertarians Heart Romney.

.

Edited by B-Man
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OCinBuffalo All Pro

OCinBuffalo

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Fox Polls have Obama in the lead. :flirt:

That poll.....0 polls, explain or account for this pattern in the 600k people, never mind 1000, data set above.

 

If you're going to dispute these results, or try to account for them, you need to find something within this data the either proves it hasn't been collected properly = no, or, that it is incomplete = yes, but the guy specifically says he's applying the data as it becomes available, so, there's no error here....and no way this accounts for Obama already losing 151k votes from last time...and this is only in absentee ballots?

 

Or you can accept the simple concept that if you have 50.2% Democrats in a sample of LV...there's a 99% chance you're going to get 51% for Obama. You will not get 40% for Obama. Yes, amazing, more Democrats mean...more votes for Obama.

 

I can't believe I have to explain something so simple. Well, I guess math isn't for everybody. I can't believe...in an era of hyper partisanship....we have political professionals telling us that Party ID doesn't matter, and won't affect the results. :blink: Amongst people who care enough to pick up the phone, find out what it is, and then care enough to finish the survey, saying that how they ID their party...doesn't matter...or is some flighty thing to them?

 

Sounds a hell of a lot more like an excuse, than an explanation.

 

No one cares if any of us posts you mental patient. And just because I'm in the same asylum as you doesn't make our diagnoses the same.

Ya know what's hysterical? I leave a joking comment, that nobody who's shown up in this thread, but you and I, probably even gets....

 

and not only can't you let it go...and laugh about it...you can't even entertain the slightest poke at your massive ego...can you?

 

Jesus. This isn't even a pot/kettle thing. This is more like a pot...cauldron thing?

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Oxrock Rookie

Oxrock

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http://www.examiner.com/article/new-economic-data-shatters-obama-s-over-inflated-lead-polls?fb_action_ids=496467773705540&fb_action_types=og.likes&fb_source=other_multiline&action_object_map=%7B%22496467773705540%22%3A419328654781704%7D&action_type_map=%7B%22496467773705540%22%3A%22og.likes%22%7D&action_ref_map=[]

 

 

New economic data shatters Obama's over-inflated lead in polls

 

Recent Rasmussen Reports polling of 'Likely Voters,' using [nothing but] current, 'self-identified party affiliation' percentages, shows that the race is tied at 48 percent nationally, which does not bode well for the president--especially when considering Obama's 'bully pulpit,' and the gargantuan amount of financial resources expended, and a 13 to 1 mainstream media bias that has been focused on destroying Romney.

 

Now, throw in the fact that historically the 'Not Sures' and 'Undecideds,' who represent the remaining 4 percent, swing to the challenger, Gov. Romney takes the lead with 52 to Obama's 48 percent.--which just happens to equal the president's 'Approval Rating.'

 

This is significant, as historically it is identical to the share of the popular vote incumbents receive.

 

As jobs and the economy are still the 'number one determining factor in this election,' when you consider that 43 percent feel that a 'Victory for Romney and Republicans' ... 'would lead to a stronger economy next year,' versus only 34 percent who feel the same way about Barack Obama--that's not good news for Team Obama either.

 

Follow that up with the coups de gras of Romney holding a 5 point lead with "Independent" voters, particularly the nearly 500,000 Democrat voters in Ohio who changed 'teams' for this election.

 

In another recent Rasmussen poll of the 11 swing states, the president and Mitt Romney are tied with 46% support each, with 4 percent who are not sure, and 3 percent who are undecided--and remember what we said about them before.

 

Even so, when just the "Leaners" are factored in, Romney still gains the edge, leading the president 48% to 47%.

 

To cap it off, a near super-majority of 56 percent swing state voters believe the nation has gotten off on the wrong track; and there is only one way to get it to go in the Right direction--boot Barack Obama out of the White House on November 6th.

 

Hawaii...he is all yours!

 

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DC Tom Hall of Famer

DC Tom

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It's a message board. And one where the regulars are a mess. Including you. And me. Of course your disorder won't let you see the reality or humor int that so you got defensive. Sorry puppy dog. Sometimes I forget how easy it is to hurt you.

 

I'm not. I'm medicated. I'm the sanest one here.

 

How does THAT make all of you feel about yourselves? :lol:

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